Fant4stic Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[InCali]

What if I told you the drop after the FF reviews started coming in was sharper and more dramatic than what we're seeing now with the current global drop?

I'm not an expert, but I'd say it was part of an overall downward trend. People were getting nervous about the global economy prior to August 4. Look at Disney's and other stocks (and don't go looking for one offs to prove a point ) and I think you'll see that push downward was a pretty common occurence.

 

[starscream22]

Here is the answer-



Yes. An odd consequence of people's construction around themselves of online phantom communities is that they tend to see the world narrowly, from an eccentric angle that correlates to the beliefs and interests that they opt to share. Most fans here want F4 to be another province of Marvel movies, so sentiments that would encourage that outcome are imputed into the world at large.

Is it just most Fans at this point? I've heard a few critics mention handing back the franchise to Marvel in their reviews and many of the commoners are catching on fast as well.

And ironically our guess as narrow as it may be have a greater chance at being right than the people who claim to know it all. And since there's no insider trading at play here I'll stick to my gut feeling being that it's been right when following this franchise anyway.

Meanwhile, Fox clearly needs a win here, so I'll be skipping Maze Runner 2 in theaters as well. I can't really predict or control the stock market but I do have some control over my own wallet so Fox wont be recouping on my dime this year or the next.

 

[regwec]

What if I told you the drop after the FF reviews started coming in was sharper and more dramatic than what we're seeing now with the current global drop?

I would tell you that, should it have been a consequence of F4's opening weekend, the insurers, funds etc who hold most of the stock were extremely flighty and ill-advised to sell at a guaranteed loss over so small a matter.

 

[InCali]

Is it just most Fans at this point? I've heard a few critics mention handing back the franchise to Marvel in their reviews and many of the commoners are catching on fast as well.

And ironically our guess as narrow as it may be have a greater chance at being right than the people who claim to know it all. And since there's no insider trading at play here I'll stick to my gut feeling being that it's been right when following this franchise anyway.

Meanwhile, Fox clearly needs a win here, so I'll be skipping Maze Runner 2 in theaters as well. I can't really predict or control the stock market but I do have some control over my own wallet so Fox wont be recouping on my dime this year or the next.

I hear you, but have a different take. I'd like to see FF back in the Marvel fold. As others have pointed out (and I agree), the FF franchise has some of the coolest villains and characters. Galactus (which Fox totally butchered), Silver Surfer, Kang, The Watcher (is he FF??), and, lest we forget, probably the best villain ever in Dr. Doom (who, IMO, and even though he isn't as powerful as some others, has no peer as a villain in Marvel comics). The FF and Inhumans could be awesome.

Get the FF back to Marvel and reboot the franchise. If you have Reed and Ben as roommates in a flashback scene at the same college as Victor von Doom, I promise you I will be there first day.

All that being said, if Fox puts out a movie I want to see.....I'm seeing it and don't think it'll make a gram of difference as to whether FF returns to Marvel.

 

[starscream22]

I hear you, but have a different take. I'd like to see FF back in the Marvel fold. As others have pointed out (and I agree), the FF franchise has some of the coolest villains and characters. Galactus (which Fox totally butchered), Silver Surfer, Kang, The Watcher (is he FF??), and, lest we forget, probably the best villain ever in Dr. Doom (who, IMO, and even though he isn't as powerful as some others, has no peer as a villain in Marvel comics). The FF and Inhumans could be awesome.

Get the FF back to Marvel and reboot the franchise. If you have Reed and Ben as roommates in a flashback scene at the same college as Victor von Doom, I promise you I will be there first day.

All that being said, if Fox puts out a movie I want to see.....I'm seeing it and don't think it'll make a gram of difference as to whether FF returns to Marvel.

We clearly want the same thing so look at it this way....For 2 years this film has received nothing but negative press from the fandom. This caused Fox to panic and scrutinize Trank's work even more and later take over the film. The same negative press, caused the creators to focus more on it in interviews/articles than actually explaining anything worth while regarding this reboot. And yet people still don't think our vote/$$$ matters.

When the PTA and other groups are p*ssed at a company for whatever reason they're boycotting it whether the service at said company is good or not. I don't consider myself a "fanboy" per say but I can see the stigma that seems to be present with knowing anything about a comic book so I'm lumped in whether I just started reading comic books yesterday. Which is sad because this genre is the only group that talks themselves out of being relevant by other people within the genre that clearly have opposing interest.

Food for thought: As bad as this film is doing right now do you honestly think that Fox would scoff at the $10M, $20M or what ever amount we represent from bringing our friends and families, spreading GOOD word of mouth and viewing a film multiple times in theaters right now?

Yeah, no one's calling us insignificant then, it's "Give it a chance!" "Watch the movie and then judge for yourself!". It all adds up InCali.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I would tell you that, should it have been a consequence of F4's opening weekend, the insurers, funds etc who hold most of the stock were extremely flighty and ill-advised to sell at a guaranteed loss over so small a matter.

I don't know how much of the sell-off was attributable to FF, but I certainly wouldn't be complaining about any managers who sold my stake at $33 instead of waiting until it hit $26.

And while a single film might not be a big deal in the grand scheme, FF was probably expected to be 21st Century Fox's biggest, single revenue producer of the year and potential new franchise that could guarantee a steady revenue stream in the future. And that expected single, biggest revenue producer and potential new franchise was grossly mismanaged from beginning to end.

Films come and go, but bad management stays around until shareholders demand change.

 

[regwec]

Given that Fox had already warned its shareholders about this year's profits, I think any impact F4 had over the state price was probably a matter of timing, with its slide being delayed until some figures came in.

 

[InCali]

I don't know how much of the sell-off was attributable to FF, but I certainly wouldn't be complaining about any managers who sold my stake at $33 instead of waiting until it hit $26.

And while a single film might not be a big deal in the grand scheme, FF was probably expected to be 21st Century Fox's biggest, single revenue producer of the year and potential new franchise that could guarantee a steady revenue stream in the future. And that expected single, biggest revenue producer and potential new franchise was grossly mismanaged from beginning to end.

Films come and go, but bad management stays around until shareholders demand change.

Until shareholders demand change or someone gets promoted to a position where they can't do any damage.

Isn't it funny how Minions tends to make big jumps during the week and then falls off during the weekend behind Ant-Man? That's been almost as steady as a heartbeat. Being the summer I suppose??

 

[Eddie]

"No, the stock price didn't go down because of this movie that's losing tens of millions of dollars at least. That's preposterous!"

The economy sucks, sure. I fail to see how losing that much money does anything but hurt Fox, though.

 

[InCali]

We clearly want the same thing so look at it this way....For 2 years this film has received nothing but negative press from the fandom. This caused Fox to panic and scrutinize Trank's work even more and later take over the film. The same negative press, caused the creators to focus more on it in interviews/articles than actually explaining anything worth while regarding this reboot. And yet people still don't think our vote/$$$ matters.

When the PTA and other groups are p*ssed at a company for whatever reason they're boycotting it whether the service at said company is good or not. I don't consider myself a "fanboy" per say but I can see the stigma that seems to be present with knowing anything about a comic book so I'm lumped in whether I just started reading comic books yesterday. Which is sad because this genre is the only group that talks themselves out of being relevant by other people within the genre that clearly have opposing interest.

Food for thought: As bad as this film is doing right now do you honestly think that Fox would scoff at the $10M, $20M or what ever amount we represent from bringing our friends and families, spreading GOOD word of mouth and viewing a film multiple times in theaters right now?

Yeah, no one's calling us insignificant then, it's "Give it a chance!" "Watch the movie and then judge for yourself!". It all adds up InCali.

As long as they butchered the movie, I'm glad it did as poorly as it did. The best case scenario was they made a good, (relatively) faithful telling of the story and the movie cashed in (yeah, I know....wasn't gonna happen).

The worst case was that they made this particular movie and it actually made money. Then we would have had the 2017 sequel.

What did happen was almost as good as best case (and maybe better but we'll never know). The movie stunk and now Fox has a piece of property that is useless to them. No matter what happens in other movies, Fox now has some real motivation to unload FF whether or not Maze Runner does well or not.

If Fox puts out a good movie, I want to see it. If they put out $#!t, I won't. That's how I vote. Marvel SH movies are my favorite, but there's also more out there.

 

[JKKS085]

Monday # $323,093 down an abysmal 66.4% from last week.
The movie passed $50M at the domestic box office but also fell out of the daily top 10 already (only 18 days in in its theatrical run).

The movie is currently $2.13M behind Total Recall (2012).

 

[Quasar]

I just watched an episode of Fresh Off the Boat where it claimed Chinese people are superstitious against the number 4. If that's true, maybe that's why F4 won't be showing in China!

 

[Eddie]

I just watched an episode of Fresh Off the Boat where it claimed Chinese people are superstitious against the number 4. If that's true, maybe that's why F4 won't be showing in China!

Japan has those same superstitions. It's because the pronunciation of the the word for "four" is similar to that of the word for "death" in those languages.

This film has had a fantastic death at the box office, so perhaps there's something to be said for superstition...

 

[InCali]

Monday # $323,093 down an abysmal 66.4% from last week.
The movie passed $50M at the domestic box office but also fell out of the daily top 10 already (only 18 days in in its theatrical run).

The movie is currently $2.13M behind Total Recall (2012).

What passed it? It was 10th behind The Gift, Ant-Man, and Minions. Don't tell me it got passed by Ricki and the Flash.....that can't be.....right?

 

[Krandor]

What passed it? It was 10th behind The Gift, Ant-Man, and Minions. Don't tell me it got passed by Ricki and the Flash.....that can't be.....right?

Yes it can be. Ricki and the Flash was number 10 for Monday pushing this to 11..

 

[InCali]

Yes it can be. Ricki and the Flash was number 10 for Monday pushing this to 11..

Oh.....wow.....just wow. That is unbelievable. In the 18th day of release for both movies, Ricki and the Flash passes the FF in the daily box office. How much worse can it get? That is so nuts, it's like something from some other reality.

 

[Flint Marko]

Lmao. That movie looked absolutely terrible, but even that is performing better than FFINO.

 

[JKKS085]

For those paying attention to the international BO (TalismanRing ?), does the film still have a shot at 150M ?
It needs another 20 millions to get there, with 5/6 millions left dom at most can it get another 14/15M from international holdovers and new openers (it has Italy and Japan left) ?

That is of course assuming it doesn't open in China.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

I see our beloved fanfourstic still isn't doing so hot

truly a shame

 

[InCali]

Lmao. That movie looked absolutely terrible, but even that is performing better than FFINO.

From the Ant-Man box office prediction thread after Ant-Man passed FF in the daily box office Great one by Drew.

"On your left..."

First Ant-Man, then Ricki and the Flash. Next up on the left: Shaun the Sheep t:

 

[wobbly]

For those paying attention to the international BO (TalismanRing ?), does the film still have a shot at 150M ?
It needs another 20 millions to get there, with 5/6 millions left dom at most can it get another 14/15M from international holdovers and new openers (it has Italy and Japan left) ?

That is of course assuming it doesn't open in China.

I think most of it's overseas business is done. $15 mill isn't out of the question, but I doubt it would be significantly higher than that.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think by this weekend people will be having a hard time finding it. A few 20+ screen multiplexes may have it showing on one screen, but I'm betting most theaters will have dropped it completely.

 

[InCali]

I think most of it's overseas business is done. $15 mill isn't out of the question, but I doubt it would be significantly higher than that.

So you'd set the over and under WW at about 150M? DOM, I'd take the under on 55M, but think it will be fairly close. I'll bet the word is out and it does worse than expected (again) in Italy/Japan.

 

[InCali]

I think by this weekend people will be having a hard time finding it. A few 20+ screen multiplexes may have it showing on one screen, but I'm betting most theaters will have dropped it completely.

It's at about 2600 now as I recall. As of Friday, what do you think? I don't know much about the logic behind # of screens.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I just checked Fandango. Of the 5 theaters I go to regularly, 2 aren't showing it at all on Saturday and the other 3 have a combined total of 12 showings on Saturday.t: