Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[BigThor]

Why would they reconsider?

To think that there's a single major studio that wouldn't want a Thor-sized success on their sheets is laughable.

Very true

If a film makes 350-450 million with a 100-150 million dollar budget (Batman Begins, X2, Thor) is clearly successes, I'm sure WB wishes that GL was a Thor-sized hit.

 

[Gamma Burst]

I wanna see dnno spin this Box Office disaster into a positive. Or at the very least blame everything on outside factors but not the movie itself.

Where is he?

Yeah, where?

 

[merced]

Another thought - does WB really need these second tier comic book franchises?

The Mojo article pointed out that even considering the successful THOR, the comic book films this summer aren't making huge buck. The X-Men prequel will fall slightly short of the first X-Men film and as good as THOR was and as heavilly promoted it looks to fall short of what the much less impressive Wolverine took in.

Mojo said studios may start spending their money elsewhere than in second tier comic book heros.

 

[merced]

Another thought - does WB really need these second tier comic book franchises?

The Mojo article pointed out that even considering the successful THOR, the comic book films this summer aren't making huge buck. The X-Men prequel will fall slightly short of the first X-Men film and as good as THOR was and as heavilly promoted it looks to fall short of what the much less impressive Wolverine took in.

Mojo said studios may start spending their money elsewhere than in second tier comic book heros.

 

[BigThor]

As good as THOR was and as heavilly promoted it looks to fall short of what the much less impressive Wolverine took in.

^^^ No, both Thor's WW and domestic gross are going to be higher than XO: Wolverine.

 

[Liam_H]

Another thought - does WB really need these second tier comic book franchises?

The Mojo article pointed out that even considering the successful THOR, the comic book films this summer aren't making huge buck. The X-Men prequel will fall slightly short of the first X-Men film and as good as THOR was and as heavilly promoted it looks to fall short of what the much less impressive Wolverine took in.

Mojo said studios may start spending their money elsewhere than in second tier comic book heros.

Marvel never needed Thor to be a huge hit and they also knew it was gonna be a tough sell to GA. They just needed him to be introduced for the Avengers and it just turned out the film is very well received all around. Only reason Origins has made more domestically is because of the previous X-men films where people fell in love with hiim. Thor has made more WW.

Origins and Thor are basically the same right now domestically, but Thor will probably crawl ahead.

 

[merced]

^^^ No, both Thor's WW and domestic gross are going to be higher than XO: Wolverine.

Domestic not sure. It wll be very close. Almost a tie.

 

[Weadazoid]

Wolverine opened huge because of the built in fan base, and the returning super star.....

It was critically slammed and had huge drop offs, plus it did not get a huge international hit vibe.

Also it had no competition where THor opened after the surprisingly well recvd Fast and Furious franchise hit fast 5.


Fox is still moving Forward with Wolverine vs Japan though


I am guessing Paramount/Disney is just a bit happier with the prospects on Thor 2, Fox probably looks at it as a gamble, the fact thier director bailed doens't help matters.

 

[BigThor]

But it's not even close WW so it really doesn't matter, WW gross >>>> domestic gross.

 

[Liam_H]

Wolverine opened huge because of the built in fan base, and the returning super star.....

It was critically slammed and had huge drop offs, plus it did not get a huge international hit vibe.

Also it had no competition where THor opened after the surprisingly well recvd Fast and Furious franchise hit fast 5.


Fox is still moving Forward with Wolverine vs Japan though


I am guessing Paramount/Disney is just a bit happier with the prospects on Thor 2, Fox probably looks at it as a gamble, the fact thier director bailed doens't help matters.

I believe Star Trek hindered Origins in its 2nd week; only difference is that Thor's competition came before it. Though can't complain, the better movies had better success in both instances.

 

[jmc]

I wanna see dnno spin this Box Office disaster into a positive. Or at the very least blame everything on outside factors but not the movie itself.

Where is he?

Noticeably absent and quite.

 

[merced]

The huge numbers aren't there for these second tier comic franchises.

Some do OK, some bomb as did GL or seriously underperform as did SR - it was a soft bomb I guess. Don't forget MOS is only being made because the courts basically ordered WB to do it or else. Prior to the court decision WB said under oath in court they had no plans for another Superman film.

To WB's credit and my surprise they are actually lining up a quality cast when they could have just phoned it in. Either way the film stands to be only modestly successful at best.

In any case, I think overall we'll see fewer comic films in the coming years. There are only so many solid franchises and that ain't a lot. Especially when this type of film is still so expensaive to make.

 

[Chewy]

I hope someone's been checking in on dnno1. I fear for his sanity right now, to be honest.

 

[Chewy]

The huge numbers aren't there for these second tier comic franchises.

Some do OK, some bomb as did GL or seriously underperform as did SR - it was a soft bomb I guess. Don't forget MOS is only being made because the courts basically ordered WB to do it or else. Prior to the court decision WB said under oath in court they had no plans for another Superman film.

To WB's credit and my surprise they are actually lining up a quality cast when they could have just phoned it in. Either way the film stands to be only modestly successful at best.

In any case, I think overall we'll see fewer comic films in the coming years. There are only so many solid franchises and that ain't a lot. Especially when this type of film is still so expensaive to make.

Make a good film and the success will be there.

Iron Man, Thor have been successes. We'll see about Cap.

What other second tier characters have had adaptations that are worth a damn? I like TIH but it didn't stand a chance on the heels of AngHulk. Daredevil, Fantastic Four, Ghost Rider, why would anyone care about these movies when they were all mediocre to dreadful?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm actually a little suprised that GL isn't going to drop harder than it is this weekend. It should do a 62 to 64% drop. Terrible but not as bad as I was predicting. Ofcourse these are just estimates...

The point is the movie is going to have a bad drop. Put a fork in it, it's done.

 

[Liam_H]

Make a good film and the success will be there.

Iron Man, Thor have been successes. We'll see about Cap.

What other second tier characters have had adaptations that are worth a damn? I like TIH but it didn't stand a chance on the heels of AngHulk. Daredevil, Fantastic Four, Ghost Rider, why would anyone care about these movies when they were all mediocre to dreadful?

Exactly. If you can sell something well and have it actually be good quality, most of the times the GA will respond. You also have to give it an opportunity to succeed.

 

[DW4]

Another thought - does WB really need these second tier comic book franchises?

The Mojo article pointed out that even considering the successful THOR, the comic book films this summer aren't making huge buck. The X-Men prequel will fall slightly short of the first X-Men film and as good as THOR was and as heavilly promoted it looks to fall short of what the much less impressive Wolverine took in.

Mojo said studios may start spending their money elsewhere than in second tier comic book heros.

Like Liam H said, Marvel never needed Thor to be a huge blockbuster hit. They probably would of been happy with 350 million WW.

Instead they got a pretty good hit, a character that not many knew of(Marvel wise) which is now known for future sequels and The Avengers and a movie that was very well received by all. Marvel made a pretty penny over Thor.

Fox unfortunately didn't have a huge hit with First Class, the upside is that the film was very very good and very well received by fans and critics. Though it didn't have a major characters or stars the other films had to attract non-fans to it. Overall though it will make some money. I think the 160 million budget though was a bit too much, Fox should of went with 140 or something around there.


I think most expect that WB wants to do what Marvel did with their superhero films. The difference is that Iron Man, Iron Man 2 and Thor were good to amazing films, with great acting, good stories etc. Green Lantern was a mess with shoddy acting and bad marketing, of course it had it's bright spots but it wasn't a very good film at all.

WB needs to go back to the drawing board, I don't think we'll get Wonder Woman, Flash, Aquaman or Justice League anytime soon. I do believe that GL's failure has catapulted a Worlds Finest movie into WB's plans.

 

[Docker2.0]

If they were smart they'd do a World's Finest movie. But this is the WB we are talking about so that means we may not see one for another decade.

 

[merced]

Like Liam H said, Marvel never needed Thor to be a huge blockbuster hit. They probably would of been happy with 350 million WW.

Instead they got a pretty good hit, a character that not many knew of(Marvel wise) which is now known for future sequels and The Avengers and a movie that was very well received by all. Marvel made a pretty penny over Thor.

Fox unfortunately didn't have a huge hit with First Class, the upside is that the film was very very good and very well received by fans and critics. Though it didn't have a major characters or stars the other films had to attract non-fans to it. Overall though it will make some money. I think the 160 million budget though was a bit too much, Fox should of went with 140 or something around there.


I think most expect that WB wants to do what Marvel did with their superhero films. The difference is that Iron Man, Iron Man 2 and Thor were good to amazing films, with great acting, good stories etc. Green Lantern was a mess with shoddy acting and bad marketing, of course it had it's bright spots but it wasn't a very good film at all.

WB needs to go back to the drawing board, I don't think we'll get Wonder Woman, Flash, Aquaman or Justice League anytime soon. I do believe that GL's failure has catapulted a Worlds Finest movie into WB's plans.

I think World's Finest would be huge (mainly cause of Bats) and indeed in different times it would be up there with JL as the next logical move for WB.

But, after 2012 WB can't use Superman. In the best case scenario Superman will not be around for anyone to do a film or comic for five plus years after 2012.

You watch, the 9th Circuit will freeze the use of Superman by the heirs or WB until the Supreme Court on appeal makes a final decision. You are talking 2018, 2019 or 2020.

WF - ain't happening for at least a decade.

 

[DW4]

Woah woah, Superman can't be used in a movie after 2012? I haven't heard of this.

I'm not denying it but this is definitely the first time I'm hearing about it.

This would also put a dent into the JL movie plans, you can't have a Justice League without Superman and Batman.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Fox unfortunately didn't have a huge hit with First Class, the upside is that the film was very very good and very well received by fans and critics. Though it didn't have a major characters or stars the other films had to attract non-fans to it. Overall though it will make some money. I think the 160 million budget though was a bit too much, Fox should of went with 140 or something around there.

I thought they got a tax break that brought it down to 120 million or something like that? Anyways, X-Men was always going be a tough sell coming off two horrible films and missing its only big star. Fox might not see it this way, but it is more important that they actually made a good film for the future of this franchise. It may not be a huge success financially, but it revived this franchise from the dead. It will pay off when Wolverine 2 comes out.

Green Lantern was a huge flop, but that was mostly because it was lousy. Sure, other bad films will make money, but Green Lantern had the misfortune of directly competing against not one, but two other much better films in the same genre not even counting a third superhero film coming out next month. Had Green Lantern been the only superhero film this summer the reviews might not have mattered as much. We'll never know.

 

[Liam_H]

Woah woah, Superman can't be used in a movie after 2012? I haven't heard of this.

I'm not denying it but this is definitely the first time I'm hearing about it.

This would also put a dent into the JL movie plans, you can't have a Justice League without Superman and Batman.

Yes the rights to Superman is tied up in legal matter, although I don't know much about it so I can't tell you much.

In regards to JL, I believe Poni_Boy has stated that if WB does make that movie, Superman and Batman would only be mentioned by name. This way the rest of the league would get more exposure to the GA. But I agree a JL movie without Superman and Batman does not sound appealing.

 

[DW4]

Green Lantern was a huge flop, but that was mostly because it was lousy. Sure, other bad films will make money, but Green Lantern had the misfortune of directly competing against not one, but two other much better films in the same genre not even counting a third superhero film coming out next month. Had Green Lantern been the only superhero film this summer the reviews might not have mattered as much. We'll never know.

I probably would agree, I don't think it would of been a huge blockbuster hit but definitely could of made some decent money, definitely enough for WB to make a sequel.

Comic book films need a good rest and they'll have it until CA comes out.

 

[merced]

Woah woah, Superman can't be used in a movie after 2012? I haven't heard of this.

I'm not denying it but this is definitely the first time I'm hearing about it.

This would also put a dent into the JL movie plans, you can't have a Justice League without Superman and Batman.

By 2013 the 9th Circuit will have to make a final ruling on the case or so it seems.

Whatever that ruling is, one or the other side r both will appeal.

In such cases where the rights to use a product are at stake and an appeal is made to the SCOTUS, the Circuit Court usually stays it's order until the Supreme Court makes a final decision.

A stay means that if say the 9th, as expected, returns control of Superman to the heirs, the Court will abey the heirs from using the rights that very Court said they had until the SCOTUS confirms those rights. But in the interim WB/DC no longer own Superman and can't use him in any way. The Court will simply block whomever it finds in favor of from using Superman also.

Bottom line, the franchise will be frozen for years to come.

 

[KalMart]

Woah woah, Superman can't be used in a movie after 2012? I haven't heard of this.

I'm not denying it but this is definitely the first time I'm hearing about it.

This would also put a dent into the JL movie plans, you can't have a Justice League without Superman and Batman.

As I understand it (in broad strokes).....if WB and the Siegel & Shuster heirs don't come to an agreement over the amount of royalties shared from all things Superman, then WB can't use the elements of Superman that were created by Siegel & Shuster prior to their sale of Superman to National (I believe). Things such as the name Superman, his alter ego Clark Kent, a reporter named Lois Lane, and others. They can have a character who flies and a villain named Lex Luthor and Braniac. Basically, either side can only make money off of their 'parts' of Superman unless they come to an agreement. So WB can still make a movie with a guy who has that S and flies, but he can't be named Superman or Clark Kent, and he can't know a reporter named Lois Lane, and he can't be from a planet called Krypton.

So yeah...there is a chance that WB can't make another movie or comic with Superman as we know it...if a royalties agreement can't be reached.