Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[KalMart]

Foreign box office won't save this movie...

WB just about hopes to make its budget back at this stage.

They won't make their budget back with ticket ales.

 

[Jordanstine]

The bargain theater release is standard. Nothing unusual there. It just signals the beginning of the end of it's run.
What Warners did with SR was to encourage those chains to keep it longer and "borrow" and fudge the numbers to push it over $200m.

What is WB going to do, fudge GL over $120m domestic.

Correct, and to my understanding bargain theaters have a higher stake at the revenue percentage over the studios (since IT IS a bargain and they're prices are basically just $1 - $3 admissions). Rather than the typical ~50/50 share approximation, the percentages on bargain theaters usually are 70/30 if not even 80/20 skewed in favor of the theater's bigger share.

So even if Warner Bros had made an extra $1 million in the last 2 weekends from Green Lantern at the bargain theateres ($114.6M to $115.6M), they're in fact only taking in between $200K or $300K of that $1M revenue.

Side note:

I wonder if Marvel/Paramount should be doing the same with Thor and releasing it on the bargain theaters. It's been out 3 and half months now, and I know they don't NEED to do it, but it doesn't hurt to have the film benefit and get a cool $1M on the books before it's theater run

 

[KalMart]

Do they also sell leftover popcorn from the real movie theaters in the bargain theaters?

 

[mace1]

Green lantern
Worldwide
$194,201,139

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=greenlantern.htm

 

[CaptainCraig]

Will GL crawl over $200m worldwide now?
Will GL crawl over Ghost Rider, the separation was $200K when I looked this morning? Although it will sell less tickets to reach that if it does it.

 

[CaptainCraig]

Side note:

I wonder if Marvel/Paramount should be doing the same with Thor and releasing it on the bargain theaters. It's been out 3 and half months now, and I know they don't NEED to do it, but it doesn't hurt to have the film benefit and get a cool $1M on the books before it's theater run

Yeah, it's standard. THOR and XM:FC have or still are in my bargain theater.

 

[Red Mask]

Green lantern
Worldwide
$194,201,139

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=greenlantern.htm

Still not impressed.

 

[bullets]

Well at least it made back most of it's budget .. I guess.

 

[HighFivingMF]

Still not impressed.

And you never will be. You don't have to keep updating us.

 

[dnno1]

It will go over $200 million this weekend.

 

[Red Mask]

And you never will be. You don't have to keep updating us.

Heh heh heh! t:

 

[Gamma Burst]

Oh my, what a crappy performance.

 

[Antonello Blueberry]

There are far worse performances this year, like Conan and Cowboys&Aliens.

 

[dark_b]

but this movie got more promoted and cost more.

 

[ClarkLuther55]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. I still have no idea how GL's production and advertising cost over $300 million. That's the #1 factor in its financial failure right now.

Had this movie been made on a budget of around $140 million (like First Class, Thor and Captain America) with an advertising budget of about $50 million (like almost everything else), things would be OK right now. Not all of the box office goes back to the studio, but DVD sales haven't occurred yet either. That wouldn't make GL a hit, but it would be making back costs or turning a small profit.

The amount of money spent by the WB just shocked me. Since neither the CGI, nor the advertising, seemed all that special to me in comparison to other films in this genre.

 

[Liam_H]

All that money went into rendering the constant CGI needed for Oa, his suit, Parallax, etc. They just did not manage their budget very well so it seemed they ran out time or money to complete everything. The suit was a novel idea but in the end was a complete waste of resources.

 

[super85]

= Worldwide: $205,842,183

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=greenlantern.htm

 

[BlueLantern]

All that money went into rendering the constant CGI needed for Oa, his suit, Parallax, etc. They just did not manage their budget very well so it seemed they ran out time or money to complete everything. The suit was a novel idea but in the end was a complete waste of resources.

I think they could've very easily shaved the budget down by a hefty amount if they just went with a normal suit that was then tweaked with in post-production to make it seem shiny and stuff.

Most of the more expansive scenes didn't even add to the story but simply seemed to be in there for the mandatory glory shots that studios love. Much like the first Star Trek film.

 

[Karelia]

= Worldwide: $205,842,183

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=greenlantern.htm

Well, I'm glad it's made over 200Mil. t:

 

[dark_b]

this is f worldwide for the love of god. this is NOTHING

 

[hippie_hunter]

this is f worldwide for the love of god. this is NOTHING

Worldwide does mean something when Warner Bros. is doing the distribution in foreign territories. It's not like in a lot of instances where other companies take up the international distribution and make most of the money (like Terminator Salvation where Sony made a lot of money off that film while the film was lackluster for Warner Bros.).

 

[Micromind]

It's true that GL has not been a profitable movie and it is certainly lagging behind this years superhero movies, but looking at some of the movies that performed badly but are not considered as disasters, I think that GL is slightly better position as it involves selling merchandise (toys, games etc.).

Having said this, it will still not be profitable.

Cowboys & Aliens
Production Budget: $163 million
Domestic: $93,477,000 - 72.5%
+ Foreign: $35,500,000 -27.5%
--------------------------------
= Worldwide: $128,977,000


Sucker Punch
Production Budget: $82 million
Domestic: $36,392,502 - 40.5%
+ Foreign: $53,400,000 - 59.5%
---------------------------
= Worldwide: $89,792,502


Speed Racer
Production Budget: $120 million

Domestic: $43,945,766 -46.8%
+ Foreign: $50,000,000 -53.2%
------------------------------
= Worldwide: $93,945,766

If someone wants an example of a true box Office disaster, it would be Disney Studio's Mars needs Moms.

Mars Needs Moms
Production Budget: $150 million

Domestic: $21,392,758 - 54.9%
+ Foreign: $17,600,000 - 45.1%
----------------------------
= Worldwide: $38,992,758

 

[Superhero 101]

= Worldwide: $205,842,183

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=greenlantern.htm

Yay I Am happy

 

[dark_b]

300 worldwide would be a small number for WB. 200 is a bomb. of course they will make their money back. but this is an epic bomb.

 

[dnno1]

I think this project is more concerned with breaking even anyway they can at this point in the game and they don't have to make $300 million at the box office to do that. Remember, they are getting a tax offset from the production work in Louisiana so that reduces the budget quite a bit under $200 million (more like $156 million). Also even though the world wide marketing costs were anywhere between $125 and $175 million some of that is offset by the alliances with retailers (Subway, Mattel, Reces, Dorritos, et. al.). I am sure that there is a percentage royalty going back to the franchise for any money made through the licensing (I know that it has been reported that Mattel is paying a 2.5% royalty).