Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[solidsnake86]

Yessir it is. In the state of economy we're in you should shun your current fanbase in hopes of bringing on new readers. Plus, putting all the new issues online the same day as they are available in stores is a smite to shop owners.

But I digress, Green Lantern looks like it's going to bring in about $6.5 mil on Saturday. Not much of a drop from Friday

Th comic book industry is slowly going away if you havent noticed with the decreasing amount of sales per month. DC is doing what any business should be doing, trying to expand and bring in new readers. Only fans on a message board think normal business practices shouldnt apply.

The current fanbase is still going to buy the books. Sorry but the few people who post on message boards dont account for the whole of those who actually purchase the books. Go to any forum and its the same 20 to 100 (thats being generous) people who post that they hate the relaunch and wont buy the comics.

I feel bad for the comic shop owners but if they continue to appease them they're going to die out too.

How many people on this board actually buy comics on a regular basis? I wouldnt be surprised if that number is actually smaller than most think.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm actually a little suprised that GL isn't going to drop harder than it is this weekend. It should do a 62 to 64% drop. Terrible but not as bad as I was predicting. Ofcourse these are just estimates...

The point is the movie is going to have a bad drop. Put a fork in it, it's done.

Oh so it did drop about 66%, well I wasn't wrong after all.

 

[merced]

Oh so it did drop about 66%, well I wasn't wrong after all.

Mojo is saying 18,350,000 for the weekend. A 65.5% drop.

To put a little persepctive on it, SR had a 61% drop it's second weekend a I recall.

GL's numbers are bad but not a whole lot worse (relative to a non-holiday weekend opening vs SR's4 day 4th of July opening) than SR's. Again relatively speaking.

I'm guessing the film tops out at 130 million domestic - that seems to be BOGuru's expectation too.

Like Routh from SR I don't expect Ryan to be back for the sequel. Actually, like SR I expect it will be a reboot instead.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Mojo is saying 18,350,000 for the weekend. A 65.5% drop.

To put a little persepctive on it, SR had a 61% drop it's second weekend a I recall.

GL's numbers are bad but not a whole lot worse (relative to a non-holiday weekend opening vs SR's4 day 4th of July opening) than SR's. Again relatively speaking.

The numbers are awful and no amount of spin is going to change that.

I've noticed that you and other fans are trying to spin this number as okay and it's not. It's freakin terrible and shows that the audience doesn't like the film and or can't or won't convince their friends to go see it. The movie is dead as a freakin doorknob.

Comparing it's drop to SR's is silly as SR had a 58.5% drop. It also dropped worse than Fantastic Four's 59.4% drop. Right now it's estimated to have dropped as bad as Fantastic Four 2.

The only non-sequel comicbook Superhero movie that dropped more than it was the much hated Hulk which dived 69.7%. Nothing about these numbers are good. It's going to be interesting to see what the actuals are on Monday afternoon. The fact is when the first in your series drops this hard that means that people didn't like it.

(Wolverine and X3 dropped worse but those were sequels so I'm not going to compare them too much.)

 

[merced]

The numbers are awful and no amount of spin is going to change that.

I've noticed that you and other fans are trying to spin this number as okay and it's not. It's freakin terrible and shows that the audience doesn't like the film and or can't or won't convince their friends to go see it. The movie is dead as a freakin doorknob.

Comparing it's drop to SR's is silly as SR had a 58.5% drop. It also dropped worse than Fantastic Four's 59.4% drop. Right now it's estimated to have dropped as bad as Fantastic Four 2.

The only non-sequel comicbook Superhero movie that dropped more than it was the much hated Hulk which dived 69.7%. Nothing about these numbers are good. It's going to be interesting to see what the actuals are on Monday afternoon.

(Wolverine and X3 dropped worse but those were sequels)

I'm not trying to spin it as positive. It ain't. Like I said Ryan won't be back and there won't be a sequel.

I'm not a GL fan but am following this as it was WB's great hope as the first step to creating stand-alone successful franchises beyond/besides Batman. That's all WB has now.

Marvel - let's see Spiderman, Ironman, Thor, X-Men and likely Captain America

It's like what do they do now? MY guess is a JL film takes front burner and WB uses the popularity of Batman to introduce these other charactes. Especially as WB loses Superman after 2012. It can't just rely on Batman but it can sure leverage their flagship character to try to get another character to show some traction.

 

[Chewy]

At this rate I'm not convinced it will pass $120M. It's 11M behind F4 and AngHulk and 8M behind F42 and TIH through the same date.

 

[merced]

At this rate I'm not convinced it will pass $120M. It's 11M behind F4 and AngHulk and 8M behind F42 and TIH through the same date.

One thing that surprises me is that after way over-spending on SR (224 million to make the film and another 75 million to market it) WB spent such a huge and indeed similr amount of GL. I don't get that. Will heads role?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

With Transformers 3 coming out and heading for the same audience, I'm not convinced it's going to make 130mil. I do think it can scrap to 120mil but I wouldn't be surprised if it missed that mark either.

And heads will roll.

 

[Chewy]

One thing that surprises me is that after way over-spending on SR (224 million to make the film and another 75 million to market it) WB spent such a huge and indeed similr amount of GL. I don't get that. Will heads role?

Iron Man made $300M. WB wanted $300M. WB tried to make Iron Man, but "bigger". WB failed.

 

[Octoberist]

They misinterpret the success of Iron Man and failed at making a Niue that could capture the publics imagination.

 

[merced]

Iron Man made $300M. WB wanted $300M. WB tried to make Iron Man, but "bigger". WB failed.

Yeah but they expected 300 million from SR. Didn't come close. You'd think they would have been a bit less extravagant on the spending.

Didn't Alan Horn sort of get squeezed out of his position at WB because he backed SR to the hilt. His subordinate, whose name I forget, was never hot on SR or the Superman franchise. I think that guy is now in charge at WB. Will be get squeezed out too after GL?

 

[Poni_Boy]

The numbers are awful and no amount of spin is going to change that.

I've noticed that you and other fans are trying to spin this number as okay and it's not. It's freakin terrible and shows that the audience doesn't like the film and or can't or won't convince their friends to go see it. The movie is dead as a freakin doorknob.

Comparing it's drop to SR's is silly as SR had a 58.5% drop. It also dropped worse than Fantastic Four's 59.4% drop. Right now it's estimated to have dropped as bad as Fantastic Four 2.

The only non-sequel comicbook Superhero movie that dropped more than it was the much hated Hulk which dived 69.7%. Nothing about these numbers are good. It's going to be interesting to see what the actuals are on Monday afternoon. The fact is when the first in your series drops this hard that means that people didn't like it.

(Wolverine and X3 dropped worse but those were sequels so I'm not going to compare them too much.)

Thanks for the info, I wasn't aware of it's drop standings till now. It really is a sad predicament

 

[Chewy]

Yeah but they expected 300 million from SR. Didn't come close. You'd think they would have been a bit less extravagant on the spending.

Didn't Alan Horn sort of get squeezed out of his position at WB because he backed SR to the hilt. His subordinate, whose name I forget, was never hot on SR or the Superman franchise. I think that guy is now in charge at WB. Will be get squeezed out too after GL?

We'll see. They won't fire anyone yet because they still have to launch the movie overseas and try to sell as many DVDs as possible before admitting the movie turned out to be a failure.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Yeah but they expected 300 million from SR. Didn't come close. You'd think they would have been a bit less extravagant on the spending.

Didn't Alan Horn sort of get squeezed out of his position at WB because he backed SR to the hilt. His subordinate, whose name I forget, was never hot on SR or the Superman franchise. I think that guy is now in charge at WB. Will be get squeezed out too after GL?

Doubtful. WB now has DCE to shift the blame to.

I do wonder if it will hit their hopeful benchmark of $325 mil WW. It looks like a slim to none chance, but you never really know with some of those international markets.

 

[Rowsdower!]

I can't believe the top grossing movies of the year so far are The Hangover 2 and Pirates 4. And Transformers 3 - even if it's terrible, and it likely will be - will probably make its way up there too.

 

[Chewy]

I can't believe the top grossing movies of the year so far are The Hangover 2 and Pirates 4. And Transformers 3 - even if it's terrible, and it likely will be - will probably make its way up there too.

Why can't you believe that? That's pretty much what everyone expected to happen. It's more surprising to me that Thor is still the 4th highest grossing movie of the year.

 

[merced]

We'll see. They won't fire anyone yet because they still have to launch the movie overseas and try to sell as many DVDs as possible before admitting the movie turned out to be a failure.

That's true.

And you never know about DVDs. Maybe it will sell well.

What killed the slim chance SR had at a sequel (which was announced in November 2006) were the dismal DVD sales. SR wasn't even in the top 20 in DVD rankings that year.

Who knows - maybe GL will do OK on DVD.

 

[akfj]

I can't believe the top grossing movies of the year so far are The Hangover 2 and Pirates 4. And Transformers 3 - even if it's terrible, and it likely will be - will probably make its way up there too.

I'll do my part in not seeing any of those movies, but I can't speak for anyone else.

 

[Poni_Boy]

This is why you shouldn't give a comic guy with no experience in movie production the position to make decisions about movies. Kevin Feige >>>>>>> geoff Johns and I don't even like Feige.

I hate agreeing with this because I have little to no respect for Feige, but it's pretty damn spot on. I wonder what Johns will say/do at SDCC next month

 

[Poni_Boy]

That's true.

And you never know about DVDs. Maybe it will sell well.

What killed the slim chance SR had at a sequel (which was announced in November 2006) were the dismal DVD sales. SR wasn't even in the top 20 in DVD rankings that year.

Who knows - maybe GL will do OK on DVD.

Seriously? I couldn't get my hands on that DVD for two days after it was released. Both Best Buys, Target and FYE in my area were sold out

 

[ssj wolverine]

With the huge failure of GL it will probably dash my hopes of a Flash movie being made. Out of fear WB will just stick with the big two.

 

[Rowsdower!]

I'll do my part in not seeing any of those movies, but I can't speak for anyone else.

Sadly, I can't say the same. I saw The Hangover 2 (or should I say, The Hangover Retread)... even after the bad reviews came about. I was like, "Come on! They can't do EXACTLY the same thing they did in the first movie, right?" Yeah, I was wrong.

And I know I'll probably see Transformers 3 on the big screen, just for the pretty explosions.

Pirates 4, though... yeah, I avoided that like the plague.

 

[Chewy]

lol

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/warner-bros-pursue-green-lantern-205703

How silly

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

That reeks of BS and studio spin. I don't buy that for second.

 

[Rowsdower!]

With the huge failure of GL it will probably dash my hopes of a Flash movie being made. Out of fear WB will just stick with the big two.

LEAKED: WARNER BROTHER'S CBM RELEASE PLANS THROUGH 2020

2012: The Dark Knight Rises, Man of Steel
2013: --
2014: The Dark Knight Falls
2015: Man of Tomorrow
2016: The Dark Knight Returns
2017: Last Son of Krypton
2018: The Dark Knight Triumphant
2019: Wrath of Zod
2020: The Dark Knight Beyond