Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[StormC]

After seeing this movie, I would be very happy to see it hit a billion. But I don't know. It's gonna need pretty much every movie before Pirates to underperform, I think.

 

[Themanofbat]

Dude. The point is that I BUILT my prediction of the BO (for the local Cinemark XD) on numbers that were for a small subset of the DOM BO. As these were for a smaller segment, you can't (fairly anyway) use absolute numbers to compare them as they are smaller and larger entities.

Man, I used to be so good at teaching concepts to people. Now it appears I've lost that touch. They were so smart and so interested in learning....hmmm....maybe I'm on to something.

Take your own advice and listen to Mark!!!

 

[Erzengel]

I wish people made polls public. Who were the 2 people who said 500-600M? They'll be over $600M by this weekend.

 

[ADollarADay]

I wish people made polls public. Who were the 2 people who said 500-600M? They'll be over $600M by this weekend.

I'm gonna vote 300-400MM just to upset you :P

 

[Iceman]

I'm gonna vote 300-400MM just to upset you :P

Yeah it could still take a dive and start losing money. We won't know till it finally closes. Never count your chickens even after they've hatched, dropped out of school and are sitting at home watching CBMs all day.

 

[InCali]

Take your own advice and listen to Mark!!!

Agreed. Done. Thanks. I guess there is such a thing as an impermeable membrane.

 

[InCali]

Yeah it could still take a dive and start losing money. We won't know till it finally closes. Never count your chickens even after they've hatched, dropped out of school and are sitting at home watching CBMs all day.

Dude. That's not funny. Summer vacation is right around the corner. LOL.

EDIT: Although my son is graduating with a degree in Biochemistry (in 4 years and at the age of 21 no less) and got a research position with his professor. What happened to that kid I helped with Algebra and Geometry????

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-monday-box-office-1202087426/

After posting a $146.5 million on its opening weekend at the domestic box office — $1.5M higher than what Disney and the industry were expecting Sunday — Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 cruised on to make another estimated $10M yesterday, raising its running North American total to $156.5M.

Monday’s take easily beats the $8.5M Universal’s The Fate Of The Furious made on that respective day, but among the top Mondays so far this year, GOTG2 ranks fifth behind Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($15.9M), Sing ($14.4M), Beauty And The Beast ($13.5M) and The Lego Batman Movie ($10.09M). Marvel has risen its bar at the B.O. so high that it’s a tall feat for its other titles to top: GOTG2 ranks under GOTG‘s Monday of $11.7M and Iron Man 3‘s $11.3M, but above sequels Iron Man 2 ($9.3M) and Captain America: Winter Soldier ($6.2M). Avengers owns the top-grossing Monday ever for a Disney MCU movie with $18.9M.

The two-century mark stateside is easily within GOTG2‘s grasp this weekend making it the fourth 2017 release after Beauty And The Beast ($488M), Logan ($225M) and Fate Of The Furious ($207.8M) to cross the $200M threshold. GOTG2 should be down 50%-55% in its second session for $66M-$73M in the No. 1 spot, easily blowing away Warner Bros/Village Roadshow’s King Arthur: Legend Of The Sword and 20th Century Fox/Chernin’s Snatched.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

double post

 

[InCali]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-monday-box-office-1202087426/

That's really strong for this time of the year. It probably isn't fair to compare it to G0tG 1 and other summer releases.

EDIT: Or movies released during the winter break/holidays.

EDIT2: Lego Batman is essentially a dead heat.

 

[InCali]

I could see it sitting close to 260M by the end of next weekend.

 

[Iceman]

Dude. That's not funny. Summer vacation is right around the corner. LOL.

EDIT: Although my son is graduating with a degree in Biochemistry (in 4 years and at the age of 21 no less) and got a research position with his professor. What happened to that kid I helped with Algebra and Geometry????

This all happened because you've spent the last 2 decades watching and discussing CBMs for 18 hours a day, the absolute no.1 requirement for elite parenting...and congrats!

 

[InCali]

This all happened because you've spent the last 2 decades watching and discussing CBMs for 18 hours a day, the absolute no.1 requirement for elite parenting...and congrats!

Thx. I think by the end of next weekend, it will be #2 DOM BO. Man, can you BELIEVE the #s FotF is doing overseas? That is just CRAZY.

 

[Iceman]

Thx. I think by the end of next weekend, it will be #2 DOM BO.

That should be guaranteed.

Man, can you BELIEVE the #s FotF is doing overseas? That is just CRAZY.

It's unbelievable, especially China.

 

[iEquinox]

I could see it sitting close to 260M by the end of next weekend.

That seems a bit too high.

Let's assume it follows the usual first week drops for a big MCU movie: Another 10M on Tuesday, followed by about 7M on both wednesday and friday. That would put it at 180M before Friday.

Then with a 55-60% drop for the 2nd weekend it would end up with 239-246M at the end of the weekend. A 2nd weekend drop of only 50% would be a pleasant surpirse but that would still only put it at 253M.

260M by the end of next weekend seems out of reach; even legs as good as the 1st avengers movie wouldn't be enough to get there

 

[InCali]

That seems a bit too high.

Let's assume it follows the usual first week drops for a big MCU movie: Another 10M on Tuesday, followed by about 7M on both wednesday and friday. That would put it at 180M before Friday.

Then with a 55-60% drop for the 2nd weekend it would end up with 239-246M at the end of the weekend. A 2nd weekend drop of only 50% would be a pleasant surpirse but that would still only put it at 253M.

260M by the end of next weekend seems out of reach; even legs as good as the 1st avengers movie wouldn't be enough to get there

Yes, hitting 260M would be a little high. I was thinking an average of about 10M (maybe a little bit lower) M-Th (Tuesdays are typically higher) and say 70M next weekend. That would put it in the mid 250s. I'd consider that sitting close to or pushing 260M. The first one consistently overperformed. While this one may not, I don't think the above is out of the question. Optimistic? Yes.

 

[Erzengel]

$9.9M MON for #GotGVol2. 1st full week shd end at about $180M. Likely to be near $245M after 2nd wknd. Dom final may be around $350M.

...

 

[InCali]

...

We'll see what kind of numbers King Arthur puts up. I don't see Covenant pulling too much from the GotG crowd (except for people like me who might check it out). We'll also see how far downhill PotC has sunk. I smell a potential stinker there. That being said, the above sounds reasonable.

 

[Darepool]

So he's basically predicting an Apocalypse multiplier? Cool. At least this film is an epic masterpiece that will grow in stature over the years.

 

[Tony Stark]

We'll see what kind of numbers King Arthur puts up. I don't see Covenant pulling too much from the GotG crowd (except for people like me who might check it out). We'll also see how far downhill PotC has sunk. I smell a potential stinker there. That being said, the above sounds reasonable.

15% on RT, with 0% among top critics. I think it's going to be under 15M. I think early predictions were in the 20's. Embargo still up for Snatched, so that tells me the critics are going to hate that one too.

As I said this May looks incredibly weak. When ticket prices at the current levels and a family of 4 would spend up to 50 dollars for a prime time show, reviews I think are having a bigger effect on what people will see, especially for first time efforts. The few exceptions being the next Transformers which will make a billion because like him or hate him, people know what to expect from Michael Bay, and the international market eats it up.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

15% on RT, with 0% among top critics. I think it's going to be under 15M. I think early predictions were in the 20's. Embargo still up for Snatched, so that tells me the critics are going to hate that one too.

As I said this May looks incredibly weak. When ticket prices at the current levels and a family of 4 would spend up to 50 dollars for a prime time show, reviews I think are having a bigger effect on what people will see, especially for first time efforts. The few exceptions being the next Transformers which will make a billion because like him or hate him, people know what to expect from Michael Bay, and the international market eats it up.

I'd still expect 20m for Arthur, or at least high teens at least.

 

[Erzengel]

15% on RT, with 0% among top critics. I think it's going to be under 15M. I think early predictions were in the 20's. Embargo still up for Snatched, so that tells me the critics are going to hate that one too.

As I said this May looks incredibly weak. When ticket prices at the current levels and a family of 4 would spend up to 50 dollars for a prime time show, reviews I think are having a bigger effect on what people will see, especially for first time efforts. The few exceptions being the next Transformers which will make a billion because like him or hate him, people know what to expect from Michael Bay, and the international market eats it up.

I was fooled by io9's review that this would be a well reviewed movie.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

That's really strong for this time of the year. It probably isn't fair to compare it to G0tG 1 and other summer releases.

EDIT: Or movies released during the winter break/holidays.

EDIT2: Lego Batman is essentially a dead heat.

It's not bad but it's still a bigger percentage drop that CW had at the same time last year (-75% to CW's -69%), and CW didn't have great legs. Again still early but Vol. 2's Monday hints at the usual CBM heavy front-loading.

 

[Tony Stark]

It's not bad but it's still a bigger percentage drop that CW had at the same time last year (-75% to CW's -69%), and CW didn't have great legs. Again still early but Vol. 2's Monday hints at the usual CBM heavy front-loading.

Not really untypical and probably a higher drop because it had a much higher internal multiplier for the weekend than Civil War, and probably reflects a better hold for Guardians on Sunday than Civil War has.

No indications that this is front loaded, in fact more evidence to the opposite.

 

[Drizzle]

I'd still expect 20m for Arthur, or at least high teens at least.

If the reviews keep coming in the way they have, I'd be surprised if King Arthur reaches $10 million this weekend.