Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[InCali]

Accidental dual smart ass post.

 

[InCali]

It is increasing exponentially, with a worse exchange rate...

Can you prove that? How much WORSE is the exchange rate?

So, I looked it up and it looks like it's dropped about 13% in China or gone up 15% (depends on how you're looking at it). That means for about every 100M today, it would be about 115M back then. Soooo.....if it ends up around 125M today, that would be the equivalent of about 144M. That's a remarkably large increase over the first GotG (about 50%) of course there's been some growth in the market, but still.....

 

[TheVileOne]

What is wrong with the Alien marketing?

For one thing, it gives away a TON.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

The latest: $428 million WW.

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...national-china-box-office-weekend-1202086302/

 

[TheVileOne]

FYI, Marvel sequels tend to average a 2.4 multiplier. So that would put Guardians 2 at around $350 million.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I could see it doing a 2.5ish number.

 

[Gerontophobe]

An optimist’s case for $1B:

With a $145M OW, it only needs to pull a 2.8 in legs to reach $400M domestically. I think that is pretty doable for several reasons.

Of the other eighteen films to have Thursday previews of $17M+, most had internal multiples south of 2.4 and among these, the average domestic legs were 2.6 times OW (or only 2.4 if you take out the two most recent Star Wars films). The two exceptions were The Avengers and Jurassic World with internal weekend multiples of 2.6 (about the same as Vol. 2), and they each saw domestic legs north of 3x. Add in that the WOM (at least among the opening day types) is surprisingly similar to the first Guardians (at least surprising given the critic reviews) which saw a 3.5 domestic multiple, and I think 2.8 and thus $400M isn’t too much to ask.

Of course, there are some forces working against it domestically. While the next couple weeks look pretty weak (certainly weaker than TMNT last time around), beyond that things get pretty tough and could cut the legs out a bit. Also, a lot of kids are still in school so weekday drops should be larger than the first movie which benefitted from its August release. Still, many other MCU releases have done fine given similar circumstances.

Overseas is a bit trickier, as legs are difficult to predict across very variable markets. Accordingly, I’m going to try and break down the larger markets and predict the smaller markets from there. In general, I don’t expect the legs for Vol. 2 to match its predecessor. Note that some markets have two weeks of data so we have a better idea of their legs, but overall there is a great deal of uncertainty.

China seems to be on pace for around $120M (assuming a 2.5 multiple on a $48M OW, which would be in line with the last few MCU releases there). The UK is trending towards a final around $60M, a bit above Civil War. South Korea continues to be a great market for the MCU and is looking at $40M or so. Germany might manage $30M, Australia and France are on pace for $25M, and Russia could be $20M. Taken together, that would represent an increase of about 30% on the first one (again, assuming the legs won’t be as strong as they were the first time around). A 30% increase on the foreign gross of the first one would be around $570M, putting Vol. 2 awfully close to $1B; it could be reached by the overperformance of a few mid-level markets or if China’s legs are closer to the first Guardians.

As I said at the outset, this is a fairly optimistic (although still realistic) look at things. I suspect a total right around $900M is most likely, which is still fantastic. Vol. 2 cost Disney about the same as the original, which had an estimated profit of ~$200M without merchandise. My guess is that Vol. 2 needs to gross a bit higher to maintain the same profitability (since things like participations tend to increase with sequels to big hits), but it should be in the ballpark of the original. That would also put it right around the second most profitable film so far this year, behind only Beauty (which is looking at $350-400M in profit) and in a virtual tie with F8 (also about $200M, because it cost $50M more and so much of its gross came from China). All in all, most everyone is pretty happy about Guardians 2.

 

[StormC]

I'm getting flashbacks to people saying CW would beat Jurassic World.

 

[InCali]

I'm getting flashbacks to people saying CW would beat Jurassic World.

I remember some people saying it might get into Avengers territory, but I don't think many people really thought it would pass JW, but there are always a couple of delusional people in any group.

I don't think predicting 1B for this movie rises quite to that level, but depending how it holds, it's technically possible. I thought it had a chance at it and still do, but it looks a little less likely than I thought it was. CW did, and V2 will do, very, very well at the BO.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

If you put a gun to my head and forced me to give a number I'd go with $880 million. I think $1 billion is unlikely but stranger things have happened. Have to see how it legs out.

 

[harryoscop]

Really hope it does get to 1 Bil

 

[Wildcard]

I'm getting flashbacks to people saying CW would beat Jurassic World.

I still can't believe anyone actually thought that would happen.

But here, with Guardians, I think a billion is very much possible. It's not a lock, but at the very least it'll do more business than the first and at the end of the day, it'll be a massive success either way. Hitting a billion would pretty much just be icing on the cake.

 

[Limonade]

I'm getting flashbacks to people saying CW would beat Jurassic World.

In hindsight, nobody thought Jurassic World would put out the numbers it did.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Well considering I didn't make a prediction...

This movie is going to sail by 800m WW, should probably easily top 900m, and is going to do a higher domestic number. But it is so funny that you want to suddenly hide behind the domestic number, which you are probably still wrong about.

You said the first film was the ceiling. That was clearly not true. It is hard to admit you are wrong isn't it?

There is nothing hard about it at all. This might show a small increase over the first movie. 350 is not exactly blowing the lid off the ceiling though. I can admit I'm wrong. But it doesn't look like I'll be as far off as those claiming 1 billion. Now...if it gets to something like 375-400 then I can really admit I misjudged the ceiling on this. I have no problem with that...I'll say it right now. Quote me. (see how easy that is?)

I've been assigning that ceiling to the domestic number the whole time if you were paying attention. OS is too weird to predict really with odd exchange rates and the crazy way China works.

You can't even admit you were claiming it "should" get over a billion worldwide though so it is pretty hard for some to admit they were wrong.

So if you want to pretend you weren't making a prediction you can't very well start claiming the movie sucked because it didn't live up to a prediction you are now claiming you didn't make in the first place.

 

[InCali]

There is nothing hard about it at all. This might show a small increase over the first movie. 350 is not exactly blowing the lid off the ceiling though. I can admit I'm wrong. But it doesn't look like I'll be as far off as those claiming 1 billion. Now...if it gets to something like 375-400 then I can really admit I misjudged the ceiling on this. I have no problem with that...I'll say it right now. Quote me. (see how easy that is?)

I've been assigning that ceiling to the domestic number the whole time if you were paying attention. OS is too weird to predict really with odd exchange rates and the crazy way China works.

You can't even admit you were claiming it "should" get over a billion worldwide though so it is pretty hard for some to admit they were wrong.

So if you want to pretend you weren't making a prediction you can't very well start claiming the movie sucked because it didn't live up to a prediction you are now claiming you didn't make in the first place.

Saying something along the lines of "if this doesn't hit 1B" isn't a prediction. In other words, people use caveats all the time. One might say "The quality and hype for this movie is such that if it doesn't hit 1B, it'll probably be because.....".

There certainly HAVE been predictions of 1B and they are there to read.

So, now you are predicting that 350M is the ceiling and you're just talking about DOM BO, but you are also saying that you will be closer than those who are calling it to hit 1B (without even explaining what that means by the way....); even though you say "OS is too weird to predict really with odd exchange rates and the crazy way China works.". So.....OS BO is too weird to predict, but you are predicting you'll be "closer". You can predict the unpredictable?

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Saying something along the lines of "if this doesn't hit 1B" isn't a prediction. In other words, people use caveats all the time. One might say "The quality and hype for this movie is such that if it doesn't hit 1B, it'll probably be because.....".

There certainly HAVE been predictions of 1B and they are there to read.

So, now you are predicting that 350M is the ceiling and you're just talking about DOM BO, but you are also saying that you will be closer than those who are calling it to hit 1B (without even explaining what that means by the way....); even though you say "OS is too weird to predict really with odd exchange rates and the crazy way China works.". So.....OS BO is too weird to predict, but you are predicting you'll be "closer". You can predict the unpredictable?

Predictions can be right or wrong. Not sure what your point is. The OS weirdness is a part of the prediction process and one of the reasons we get predictions wrong.

If you think it will get 1 billion then that's a prediction. Of course it is. You are claiming it "should get over 1 billion". That's called a prediction. You can be right or you can be wrong. Some make that prediction with the intent on blaming the movie later of course for not living up to their prediction. That's a pretty common tactic.

 

[InCali]

Predictions can be right or wrong. Not sure what your point is. The OS weirdness is a part of the prediction process and one of the reasons we get predictions wrong.

If you think it will get 1 billion then that's a prediction. Of course it is. You are claiming it "should get over 1 billion". That's called a prediction. You can be right or you can be wrong. Some make that prediction with the intent on blaming the movie later of course for not living up to their prediction. That's a pretty common tactic.

Hey, YOU were the one saying "OS is too weird to predict really with odd exchange rates and the crazy way China works" and that you were "only" talking about DOM BO. Then you make unrecognizable statements regarding that you will be closer to something which you don't explain than those people who think WW BO will hit 1B. Inherent in that statement is a OS prediction.

Are you saying that at 350M DOM, that you are closer than someone who predicts 1B and it ends up at 900M? You've never defined what you meant by that and, because of that, can fill in the blanks after the fact to show that you were right in your earlier statement. It's a nice trick and I don't know if you are intentionally doing that, but it's certainly doable. So, if you can possibly define what you mean by being "closer", I'm sure we'll all be entertained.


You wrote "If you think it will get 1 billion then that's a prediction" and I agree with that. I don't remember reading anything by Darth "predicting" 1B, but if you do, feel free to quote it and I'm sure he'll feel free to respond.

I don't know if you are intentionally misunderstanding or if you gets what certain words actually mean. I think you should stick to guitar.

 

[Stark Bauer]

An optimist’s case for $1B:

With a $145M OW, it only needs to pull a 2.8 in legs to reach $400M domestically. I think that is pretty doable for several reasons.

Of the other eighteen films to have Thursday previews of $17M+, most had internal multiples south of 2.4 and among these, the average domestic legs were 2.6 times OW (or only 2.4 if you take out the two most recent Star Wars films). The two exceptions were The Avengers and Jurassic World with internal weekend multiples of 2.6 (about the same as Vol. 2), and they each saw domestic legs north of 3x. Add in that the WOM (at least among the opening day types) is surprisingly similar to the first Guardians (at least surprising given the critic reviews) which saw a 3.5 domestic multiple, and I think 2.8 and thus $400M isn’t too much to ask.

Of course, there are some forces working against it domestically. While the next couple weeks look pretty weak (certainly weaker than TMNT last time around), beyond that things get pretty tough and could cut the legs out a bit. Also, a lot of kids are still in school so weekday drops should be larger than the first movie which benefitted from its August release. Still, many other MCU releases have done fine given similar circumstances.

Overseas is a bit trickier, as legs are difficult to predict across very variable markets. Accordingly, I’m going to try and break down the larger markets and predict the smaller markets from there. In general, I don’t expect the legs for Vol. 2 to match its predecessor. Note that some markets have two weeks of data so we have a better idea of their legs, but overall there is a great deal of uncertainty.

China seems to be on pace for around $120M (assuming a 2.5 multiple on a $48M OW, which would be in line with the last few MCU releases there). The UK is trending towards a final around $60M, a bit above Civil War. South Korea continues to be a great market for the MCU and is looking at $40M or so. Germany might manage $30M, Australia and France are on pace for $25M, and Russia could be $20M. Taken together, that would represent an increase of about 30% on the first one (again, assuming the legs won’t be as strong as they were the first time around). A 30% increase on the foreign gross of the first one would be around $570M, putting Vol. 2 awfully close to $1B; it could be reached by the overperformance of a few mid-level markets or if China’s legs are closer to the first Guardians.

As I said at the outset, this is a fairly optimistic (although still realistic) look at things. I suspect a total right around $900M is most likely, which is still fantastic. Vol. 2 cost Disney about the same as the original, which had an estimated profit of ~$200M without merchandise. My guess is that Vol. 2 needs to gross a bit higher to maintain the same profitability (since things like participations tend to increase with sequels to big hits), but it should be in the ballpark of the original. That would also put it right around the second most profitable film so far this year, behind only Beauty (which is looking at $350-400M in profit) and in a virtual tie with F8 (also about $200M, because it cost $50M more and so much of its gross came from China). All in all, most everyone is pretty happy about Guardians 2.

I agree with this outlook. excellent analysis! I would bet it will hit 900 million as well

 

[InCali]

I agree with this outlook. excellent analysis! I would bet it will hit 900 million as well

That sounds ballpark. As always, we get more info and can home in as we go down the road. We've got an estimate for 3 days so far. Not a lot of info to establish trends. I thought it would open a little higher, but 145 is a good opening.

 

[TalismanRing]

Really hope it does get to 1 Bil

I don't see that happening unless it sprouts unprecedented crazy legs for an MCU sequel and (or even first film) and does $500m+ domestic.

$850m WW is a more likely target. Best case scenario is I think $900m. Worst - $800m.

It did $123.8m O/S this w/e and even with a 2.5 multiplier off that (hard with more than one third of that coming from China where the multiple for current US blockbuster sequels skews closer to 2) that's another $184.5m + $282.6m which = $467m + Japan ($10-20m) = $477-$497 O/S + $350-380m Dom = $827-877m WW.

 

[Stark Bauer]

That sounds ballpark. As always, we get more info and can home in as we go down the road. We've got an estimate for 3 days so far. Not a lot of info to establish trends. I thought it would open a little higher, but 145 is a good opening.

I enjoyed GOTG2 more than AOU, hopefully audiences feel the same and the BO numbers will reflect that

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Hey, YOU were the one saying "OS is too weird to predict really with odd exchange rates and the crazy way China works" and that you were "only" talking about DOM BO. Then you make unrecognizable statements regarding that you will be closer to something which you don't explain than those people who think WW BO will hit 1B. Inherent in that statement is a OS prediction.

I guess I should write "too weird to predict with any confidence"? Would that make it more clear for you? Hey, I'm here to help.

Are you saying that at 350M DOM, that you are closer than someone who predicts 1B and it ends up at 900M? You've never defined what you meant by that and, because of that, can fill in the blanks after the fact to show that you were right in your earlier statement. It's a nice trick and I don't know if you are intentionally doing that, but it's certainly doable. So, if you can possibly define what you mean by being "closer", I'm sure we'll all be entertained.

Glad to help!

If I predict it won't increase from 333 and it gets 350, that means I missed the prediction by 17 million. Not too shabby for a box office prediction as I'm sure you are aware. It would be true that 333 was not the "ceiling" but the ceiling being 17 million higher is still in the same neighborhood. (i.e. 400 million is still out of range for this franchise) If you claim it should break 1 billion and it only gets to 900 million, you missed it by 100 million. It's just math really.

You wrote "If you think it will get 1 billion then that's a prediction" and I agree with that. I don't remember reading anything by Darth "predicting" 1B, but if you do, feel free to quote it and I'm sure he'll feel free to respond.

I don't know if you are intentionally misunderstanding or if you gets what certain words actually mean. I think you should stick to guitar.

It's not that hard to understand when it's this clear what someone is predicting:

The first numbers are in. And if it does this everywhere, which it probably should, a billion shouldn't be difficult at all.

http://deadline.com/2017/04/guardia...-opening-international-box-office-1202077856/

Yeah... it's making a billion and then some.

I definitely think it will.

Honestly, I don't think it needs reviews on par with the first movie to get there. Its going to open stateside in such a way that it will past the original through the head start it gets. If it gets to 400m stateside, 600m overseas is definitely doable.

I didn't agree that a billion was a good prediction. My prediction was lower in the 800-900 range on the poll. This is nothing more than a different prediction.

 

[NJCaliboy]

Some people are painfully obvious in their feeble attempts to bring clouds to the party and are trying to distort the reality that this movie IS a successful sequel by EVERY measurable standard.

Whether it's out of spite, jealousy, or this irrational 'Marvel Envy'- or some other hidden agenda- people try to move the stick for what's considered successful but this movie will:
1. Make more money World Wide than the predecessor
2. Will likely make just as much domestically if not more
3. Will be reviewed as "Fresh" on Rotten Tomatoes
4. Will have one of the top 10 May openings of all time
5. Will open significantly higher than Vol. 1

The billion dollar mark will be awesome, but it's the not the measure of success for this film. To me, it's just some made up way to say the movie wasn't a bonafide hit, when in every other measurable way this movie will be looked at as a commercial and critical hit.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It's not that hard to understand when it's this clear what someone is predicting:






I didn't agree that a billion was a good prediction. My prediction was lower in the 800-900 range on the poll. This is nothing more than a different prediction.

This is me predicting what it will make? Even as I state if it gets to 400m stateside to make it work? Do you not get the point of the words "think" and "if"? Because I am not predicting. Saying something is doable doesn't mean you are saying it is going to happen.

I do not understand the concept that how much people enjoy a movie doesn't matter. It clearly does. GotG showed that. Legs come from it. It is actually really interesting when you consider AoU to the Avengers. Where if people liked AoU more, it would have gotten past the Avengers considering the increase overseas. It didn't even need to get to the Avengers domestic number to do it. Which is exactly why I spent multiple post explaining why it should, but if it doesn't that is a reflection of how people feel about the movie, especially for one that is a sequel to a movie that got to 773m.

By next Monday it should be over 600m WW. It should be less then 200m from the first film. That is when legs really start to really kick in. But with a odd May, with not really much to watch until the end of the month, will see how things hold.

Also if you were predicting a little bit less and a little bit more internationally, how does that equal 800m-900m? Say it made only 5m less domestically. Wouldn't that mean you are saying there is a chance of a 130m increase overseas. That is a little?

Oooh....you are trying to set up a "ha ha...the movie sucked" scenario by trying to set up a "didn't meet expectations" thing!

Well that doesn't work either since many sequels that the fans liked more grossed less than the first entry.

We all know the "quality" of a movie doesn't have much to do with the gross. There are so many cases where there is no correlation there. You pointed to one right there....don't most of us think Iron Man 1 is better than Iron Man 3?...Yet IM3 made more. Don't most of us think Spider-Man 2 is better than Spider-Man 1?....yet SM2 made less.

A movie that vastly exceeded "expectations" with the first movie usually grosses less with the 2nd movie. GotG did way more than we thought it would. I say it hit the ceiling for a movie about a talking raccoon and a tree featuring a bunch of unknown characters.

Own your expectations. You are predicting 1 billion, I say it won't happen. I expect a bit less domestic and a bit more overseas. That's not going to be enough to go from 770m to 1 billion.

 

[Lilbaz]

All i want to know is, does anyone have any tape?