Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[iEquinox]

I don't see that happening unless it sprouts unprecedented crazy legs for an MCU sequel and (or even first film) and does $500m+ domestic.

$850m WW is a more likely target. Best case scenario is I think $900m. Worst - $800m.

It did $123.8m O/S this w/e and even with a 2.5 multiplier off that (hard with more than one third of that coming from China where the multiple for current US blockbuster sequels skews closer to 2) that's another $184.5m + $282.6m which = $467m + Japan ($10-20m) = $477-$497 O/S + $350-380m Dom = $827-877m WW.

I think you made a few mistkes in your calculations. A 2.5 multiplier would actually lead to (2.5*123.8) + 282.6 = 592.1M. 10-20M for Japan would lead to 602-612M. (You also added 10-30M for Japan instead of 10-20M.) 350-380 DOM would mean 952-992M WW according to your assumptions.

I think the 2.5 multiplier wouldn't be impossible, but it's seems unlikely.

Comparing to TWS: it had 222M int. at this point in its release (I added 15M for markets including Brazil where it hadn't opened yet). It ended with 454.5M int.. So that's a 2.05 total multiplier from that point. If GotG2 follows the same trend, it would end with 2.05*282.6=579M. If it has the same DOM multiplier as TWS, it gets (2.73*145=) 396M DOM for a total of 975M WW. That is an optimistic number, considering movies with lower opening numbers usually have better legs, and I think it will end closer to 900M. But this shows it's at least possible for this to get close to 1B if it pulls out some great legs. We'll have to wait and see, after next weekend we should have a better idea of where it can end up domestically at least, while OS is always harder to predict.

 

[HammerDown]

145M OW! That's great. Really really good.
We are talking about 51M more than the first one. That's crazy.

I am confident it will reach the 1B mark. I would be very surprised otherwise.
Right Now: WW = 427M

 

[TalismanRing]

I think you made a few mistkes in your calculations. A 2.5 multiplier would actually lead to (2.5*123.8) + 282.6 = 592.1M. 10-20M for Japan would lead to 602-612M. (You also added 10-30M for Japan instead of 10-20M.) 350-380 DOM would mean 952-992M WW according to your assumptions.

A 2.5 multiplier includes the w/e that already passed - hence the additional B.O. would only be 1.5 times more than the w/e.

Just as a 2.5 multiplier for Domestic would be a 365m total. Not $145m + (2.5 x 145) $365m = $510

I think the 2.5 multiplier wouldn't be impossible, but it's seems unlikely.

Comparing to TWS: it had 222M int. at this point in its release (I added 15M for markets including Brazil where it hadn't opened yet). It ended with 454.5M int.. So that's a 2.05 total multiplier from that point. If GotG2 follows the same trend, it would end with 2.05*282.6=579M. If it has the same DOM multiplier as TWS, it gets (2.73*145=) 396M DOM for a total of 975M WW. That is an optimistic number, considering movies with lower opening numbers usually have better legs, and I think it will end closer to 900M. But this shows it's at least possible for this to get close to 1B if it pulls out some great legs. We'll have to wait and see, after next weekend we should have a better idea of where it can end up domestically at least, while OS is always harder to predict.

TWS acted much like a first movie with it's legs. It was a different genre and had Disney pushing it instead of Paramount (who had no confidence in a movie with that title making money O/S). It opened under TDW by a considerable margin and then finished O/S with a higher total.

Notably, China as a market was far leggier then than now because of less saturation of theaters. It had a 3 multiplier there. It opened to $38m and made $116m. Now the avg blockbuster is lucky to get a 2 - especially a sequel. With a 2x multiplier it would have made $40m less. Also, TWS made $28m in Brazil.

 

[Tony Stark]

2.5 is not unfathomable at all, it would only amount to about 360M over the first which pulled in 333M. Good freaking grief Suicide Squad with a near 70% drop in it's second week and had a 2.4 multiplier, and this film is 1000 times better than that and only had a B+ cinema score. 2.4 is the floor not the ceiling. I'm holding this probably finishes just under 400, maybe 375-390, due to the weak competition in May.

 

[Tony Stark]

145M OW! That's great. Really really good.
We are talking about 51M more than the first one. That's crazy.

I am confident it will reach the 1B mark. I would be very surprised otherwise.
Right Now: WW = 427M

It's the largest opening weekend increase for a Marvel film from the first to second film.

 

[TalismanRing]

2.5 is not unfathomable at all, it would only amount to about 360M over the first which pulled in 333M. Good freaking grief Suicide Squad with a near 70% drop in it's second week and had a 2.4 multiplier, and this film is 1000 times better than that and only had a B+ cinema score. 2.4 is the floor not the ceiling. I'm holding this probably finishes just under 400, maybe 375-390, due to the weak competition in May.

Suicide Squad opened in August. It had lucrative summer days and very little competition. Even less than GOTG had in 2014 where there was at least TMNT doing $180m. A 2.4 multiplier in August isn't really that good (especially for a non sequel). May is an entirely different animal.

 

[iEquinox]

A 2.5 multiplier includes the w/e that already passed - hence the additional B.O. would only be 1.5 times more than the w/e.

Just as a 2.5 multiplier for Domestic would be a 365m total. Not $145m + (2.5 x 145) $365m = $510.

True, looks like I had a bit of a brainfart there lol.

TWS acted much like a first movie with it's legs. It was a different genre and had Disney pushing it instead of Paramount (who had no confidence in a movie with that title making money O/S). It opened under TDW by a considerable margin and then finished O/S with a higher total.

Notably, China as a market was far leggier then than now because of less saturation of theaters. It had a 3 multiplier there. It opened to $38m and made $116m. Now the avg blockbuster is lucky to get a 2 - especially a sequel.

Yeah I agree it probably won't have legs as good as TWS. It's just a best case scenario. I expect it to end at about 900M WW, maybe just a bit under.

 

[Tony Stark]

Suicide Squad opened in August. It had lucrative summer days and very little competition. Even less than GOTG had in 2014 where there was at least TMNT doing $180m. A 2.4 multiplier in August isn't really that good (especially for a non sequel). May is an entirely different animal.

I agree it's not good, and I'd agree in a typical May release cycle 2.4 would be about all this could achieve. Go look at the past few May releases for Marvel and see what they went up against. Good grief last year Civil War in it's second week faced the Jungle Book, which pulled in 17M in it's 5th weekend, that's possibly more than King Arthur will pull in. This is the weakest May on the books since 2012.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

This is me predicting what it will make? Even as I state if it gets to 400m stateside to make it work? Do you not get the point of the words "think" and "if"? Because I am not predicting. Saying something is doable doesn't mean you are saying it is going to happen.

Saying "I definitely think it will." (make a billion) is a prediction. You skipped that one.

It's your prediction and I have mine. We'll see who is right.

I do not understand the concept that how much people enjoy a movie doesn't matter. It clearly does. GotG showed that. Legs come from it. It is actually really interesting when you consider AoU to the Avengers. Where if people liked AoU more, it would have gotten past the Avengers considering the increase overseas. It didn't even need to get to the Avengers domestic number to do it. Which is exactly why I spent multiple post explaining why it should, but if it doesn't that is a reflection of how people feel about the movie, especially for one that is a sequel to a movie that got to 773m.

Except we already know it doesn't matter as much as some claim. People liked Spider-Man 2 more than Spider-Man 1. Same with Superman 2. The novelty is a much bigger factor. GotG 2 can not have the novelty of the first movie. People enjoyed Batman Begins far more than BvS but it didn't matter either.

Box office and quality rarely correlate so your attempt to link them together won't work. Go ahead....tell me this is a list of the best movies from last year in order of how much people liked them:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2016&p=.htm

By next Monday it should be over 600m WW. It should be less then 200m from the first film. That is when legs really start to really kick in. But with a odd May, with not really much to watch until the end of the month, will see how things hold.

Legs have as much to do with upfront demand as anything else. We all know this. Having worse legs can be a compliment to a movie because it could be because people couldn't wait even one week to see it. You are trying to correlate two things that aren't always related.

It's pretty obvious what you are trying to do here. It's the "ha ha people didn't like it!" thing that you denied before.

No...this is about you missing a prediction. It's not the movie's fault your reasoning for 1 billion was flawed.

Also if you were predicting a little bit less and a little bit more internationally, how does that equal 800m-900m? Say it made only 5m less domestically. Wouldn't that mean you are saying there is a chance of a 130m increase overseas. That is a little?

It's called a guess just like we always do. 800-900 is my guess. Let's see which one of us is closer.

 

[Tony Stark]

Actuals went up to 146, so all the people questioning the Sunday 26% drop,

 

[InCali]

Hey, YOU were the one saying "OS is too weird to predict really with odd exchange rates and the crazy way China works" and that you were "only" talking about DOM BO. Then you make unrecognizable statements regarding that you will be closer to something which you don't explain than those people who think WW BO will hit 1B. Inherent in that statement is a OS prediction.

Are you saying that at 350M DOM, that you are closer than someone who predicts 1B and it ends up at 900M? You've never defined what you meant by that and, because of that, can fill in the blanks after the fact to show that you were right in your earlier statement. It's a nice trick and I don't know if you are intentionally doing that, but it's certainly doable. So, if you can possibly define what you mean by being "closer", I'm sure we'll all be entertained.


You wrote "If you think it will get 1 billion then that's a prediction" and I agree with that. I don't remember reading anything by Darth "predicting" 1B, but if you do, feel free to quote it and I'm sure he'll feel free to respond.

I guess I should write "too weird to predict with any confidence"? Would that make it more clear for you? Hey, I'm here to help.

Glad to help!

If I predict it won't increase from 333 and it gets 350, that means I missed the prediction by 17 million. Not too shabby for a box office prediction as I'm sure you are aware. It would be true that 333 was not the "ceiling" but the ceiling being 17 million higher is still in the same neighborhood. (i.e. 400 million is still out of range for this franchise) If you claim it should break 1 billion and it only gets to 900 million, you missed it by 100 million. It's just math really.

A couple of things. First off, when you change my name from "InCali" to "Unclear" and quote it as part of my post, some might think that amounts to calling another names. In other words a "personal" attack. I know people who have gotten warnings for saying "That was a dumb". Maybe you get one and maybe you don't, but if you are going to quote me, at least have the common decency to quote me by name and not a derogatory term.

Secondly, I kind of thought you meant that and, yeah, I sort of understand math. You, however, seem to be fundamentally unfamiliar with basic statistical analysis (which I taught for a brief time at the University of California) so, let me give you a quick, simple lesson that I hope you'll have no problem understanding.

What you are doing is taking a subset of a population with, according to you, less variation (DOM BO) and comparing absolute number differences to a larger population with, according to you, more variation (WW BO) and saying "if I'm closer, my prediction is better".

That would be like me saying "I'm going to guess the difference of votes for two candidates in a county where votes have been pretty stable (again DOM BO) and you guess the difference in votes across the state it's in where there are a whole bunch of counties that vary widely (again WW BO) and if I'm closer, I win!" Uhhh....big deal. You have just (probably unknowingly) showed us one aspect of "how to lie with statistics"....that's actually a book by the way.

In other words, you can't (fairly anyway) use absolute numbers when comparing somewhat disparate populations. It would be like me saying "I can guess the price of a Big Mac closer than you can guess the price of a Lexus SUV. Of COURSE you can and that "prediction" means virtually nothing.

I hope that clarifies things for you and next time you change someone's name to "Unclear", I suggest you make sure you know more about "math" (or whatever subject you happen to be discussing) than the person you are trying to school.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Actuals went up to 146, so all the people questioning the Sunday 26% drop,

Yep. And the international number went up as well. It has 146.5m domestic, 431m WW so far.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

A couple of things. First off, when you change my name from "InCali" to "Unclear" and quote it as part of my post, some might think that amounts to calling another names. In other words a "personal" attack. I know people who have gotten warnings for saying "That was a dumb". Maybe you get one and maybe you don't, but if you are going to quote me, at least have the common decency to quote me by name and not a derogatory term.

Well you must be fun at parties. You work for the No Fun League or something?

Secondly, I kind of thought you meant that and, yeah, I sort of understand math. You, however, seem to be fundamentally unfamiliar with basic statistical analysis (which I taught for a brief time at the University of California) so, let me give you a quick, simple lesson that I hope you'll have no problem understanding.

What you are doing is taking a subset of a population with, according to you, less variation (DOM BO) and comparing absolute number differences to a larger population with, according to you, more variation (WW BO) and saying "if I'm closer, my prediction is better".

That would be like me saying "I'm going to guess the difference of votes for two candidates in a county where votes have been pretty stable (again DOM BO) and you guess the difference in votes across the state it's in where there are a whole bunch of counties that vary widely (again WW BO) and if I'm closer, I win!" Uhhh....big deal. You have just (probably unknowingly) showed us one aspect of "how to lie with statistics"....that's actually a book by the way.

In other words, you can't (fairly anyway) use absolute numbers when comparing somewhat disparate populations. It would be like me saying "I can guess the price of a Big Mac closer than you can guess the price of a Lexus SUV. Of COURSE you can and that "prediction" means virtually nothing.

I hope that clarifies things for you and next time you change someone's name to "Unclear", I suggest you make sure you know more about "math" (or whatever subject you happen to be discussing) than the person you are trying to school.

I know OS box office is more weird which is why I stuck with domestic on the "ceiling" thing. I have no clue what audiences are into in other parts of the world. They loved Spider-Man 3 the most out of the Rami trilogy for god's sake! I gave up on them after that.

But I was guessing that OS might increase a bit, but not enough to put this over 1 billion. That sounded too unreasonable to me.

Another number thing, it would actually need to get over 364m to get more butts in seats and break that "ceiling" I've predicted. That's the adjusted gross for GotG.

Everyone here is guessing so me guessing closer is still a closer guess. Almost all of us will miss our guess/prediction so it's nothing to get into a lather about. It says something about this game when you really can only put down a range.

 

[InCali]

Well you must be fun at parties. You work for the No Fun League or something?

I know OS box office is more weird which is why I stuck with domestic on the "ceiling" thing. I have no clue what audiences are into in other parts of the world. They loved Spider-Man 3 the most out of the Rami trilogy for god's sake! I gave up on them after that.

But I was guessing that OS might increase a bit, but not enough to put this over 1 billion. That sounded too unreasonable to me.

Another number thing, it would actually need to get over 364m to get more butts in seats and break that "ceiling" I've predicted. That's the adjusted gross for GotG.

Everyone here is guessing so me guessing closer is still a closer guess. Almost all of us will miss our guess/prediction so it's nothing to get into a lather about. It says something about this game when you really can only put down a range.

You really don't understand what I was getting at. Do you? Oh well, I can guess the BO results for the opening show Friday night at the Cinemark XD theater at Howard Hughes Center. The max it could be would be about 400 (seats) times $15 (per seat). I'll guess the maximum of about $6000 and I'll bet anything that I'm closer in my prediction than you are in yours about DOM BO numbers for GotG2.

See how that works now? Anyway if ignorance or stupidity is bliss I know there are some happy people out there.

A few of my favorite quotes (not sure if the authors were the first to say it) just popped into my head:

George Carlin (Saw this one on SHH too)

“Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.”

Mark Twain

“Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.”

Groucho Marx

"He may look like an idiot and talk like an idiot but don't let that fool you. He really is an idiot."



I should have listened to Mark. LOL.

And, BTW, "adjusted" totals don't work for a number of reasons. In this particular case, currency exchange rates is the most obvious, but there are others. Keep piling on those after the fact adjustments and you'll always find a way to be right. Cheers.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

You really don't understand what I was getting at. Do you? Oh well, I can guess the BO results for the opening show Friday night at the Cinemark XD theater at Howard Hughes Center. The max it could be would be about 400 (seats) times $15 (per seat). I'll guess the maximum of about $6000 and I'll bet anything that I'm closer in my prediction than you are in yours about DOM BO numbers for GotG2.

See how that works now? Anyway if ignorance or stupidity is bliss I know there are some happy people out there.

And, BTW, "adjusted" totals don't work for a number of reasons. In this particular case, currency exchange rates is the most obvious, but there are others. Keep piling on those after the fact adjustments and you'll always find a way to be right. Cheers.

Not sure what you are trying to prove. A prediction is either right or wrong. Most of us will be wrong. Again I understand that OS is more chaotic which is why I didn't bother with any notion for what might happen with regard to a ceiling there. Who can tell with the way China runs their box office and the taste of people who may or may not get the English language jokes. For all I know, Baby Groot will get people into theaters in Asia. But if other people want to bet on OS increasing enough for 1 billion that's a prediction they will have to own. OS is more risky guessing in my book. But I didn't force anyone to make the guess so my domestic guess will probably be closer. And I still don't think 1 billion is happening either.

My ceiling theory pertains to the number of people interested in the franchise so of course adjusted numbers are useful. GotG2 will have the inflation advantage so it will be slightly easier to gross more. It's not very complicated.

 

[InCali]

Not sure what you are trying to prove. A prediction is either right or wrong. Most of us will be wrong. Again I understand that OS is more chaotic which is why I didn't bother with any notion for what might happen with regard to a ceiling there. Who can tell with the way China runs their box office and the taste of people who may or may not get the English language jokes. For all I know, Baby Groot will get people into theaters in Asia. But if other people want to bet on OS increasing enough for 1 billion that's a prediction they will have to own. OS is more risky guessing in my book. But I didn't force anyone to make the guess so my domestic guess will probably be closer. And I still don't think 1 billion is happening either.

My ceiling theory pertains to the number of people interested in the franchise so of course adjusted numbers are useful. GotG2 will have the inflation advantage so it will be slightly easier to gross more. It's not very complicated.

My prediction will be closer than yours because it's not a fair comparison. Over and out.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yep. And the international number went up as well. It has 146.5m domestic, 431m WW so far.

Those are some crazy numbers. It's still too early to say but the tea leaves on legs are reading very good atm. $1 billion hopes still alive.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Hope this has good legs, it deserves to make a lot of money

 

[InCali]

Those are some crazy numbers. It's still too early to say but the tea leaves on legs are reading very good atm. $1 billion hopes still alive.

EDIT: I read OS for WW. What do you think is ballpark for OS if you were to guess at this point?

Still, what think? You're better at this than I am.

And RT rounds up to 82% with 260 reviews. It's not going anywhere. It's been very, very steady for the last few days.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

EDIT: I read OS for WW. What do you think is ballpark for OS if you were to guess at this point?

Still, what think? You're better at this than I am.

And RT rounds up to 82% with 260 reviews. It's not going anywhere. It's been very, very steady for the last few days.

Dude, you've forgotten more about numbers than I ever learned. But thanks anyhow. I'd be scared to hazard more than a wild guess at this point but assuming Vol. 2 gets into the usual Marvel range of low- to mid-60% of total revenues OS (Vol. 1 only got to 57% but I'm betting the sequel does better) then maybe $700 million? Is that crazy? I keep inching the numbers up every time I think about it so I'll probably talk myself into $1 billion being a lock in a couple hours.

 

[Tony Stark]

I will gladly admit I was skeptical about 1B, before the film came out, and when the Friday number came out it looked like it wasn't happening, but I can't get over this crazy internal multiplier for the weekend.

900M seems a lock to me at this point and 1B is very doable. 375/625 is all it has to have to reach 1B, that's well within range.

 

[NJCaliboy]

Actuals went up to 146, so all the people questioning the Sunday 26% drop,

Yep- I think i read somewhere it had the 11th best Saturday ever. Looks like the updated number is:

$146,510,104

 

[JeetKuneDo]

My prediction will be closer than yours because it's not a fair comparison. Over and out.

Not my fault you built your prediction on unpredictable numbers. You had to know that going in.

 

[InCali]

Dude, you've forgotten more about numbers than I ever learned. But thanks anyhow. I'd be scared to hazard more than a wild guess at this point but assuming Vol. 2 gets into the usual Marvel range of low- to mid-60% of total revenues OS (Vol. 1 only got to 57% but I'm betting the sequel does better) then maybe $700 million? Is that crazy? I keep inching the numbers up every time I think about it so I'll probably talk myself into $1 billion being a lock in a couple hours.

I just know how to figure some stuff out when I get enough info, but am not familiar enough with how movies trend at given points and how to compare them. I'm not completely ignorant and get the date, OW numbers, sequels as opposed to a first release (though I think this may be a factor that is probably variable and depends on the first release), etc.

But there are people who have looked at this WAY more in depth than I have and can predict what's going to happen down the road with much more accuracy than I can. I just use logic and crunch numbers and still don't get things right that often. I'm less interested in the result than I am the process as I think the latter, long term, more beneficial.

Anyway, I'll throw a dart at the board and say around 900M. If I was going to try to figure it out, I'd look at the larger BO entities, try to figure out where they are in their overall totals and throw an average at the rest. Some people have done this.

One thing that rather interests me (and affects the above) is the exchange rates between countries. China and the US being the biggest factor in these particular comparisons. I've argued in the past that adjusted for inflation numbers are very unreliable because there are so many mitigating factors (one being does ticket price inflation match, exceed or (hmmmmm....I can't think of an antonym of exceed, but you get the point) inflation itself. Exchange rates, on the other hand don't seem like something that would directly affect ticket prices in one country or another (but I could be off on that one). So, a 15% change in exchange rates might directly affect foreign BO #s and an approximately 15% change in the $ to yuan since the last GotG would seem to have a detrimental effect on the current BO numbers for Vol 2.

OK. I'm sure you are all fascinated by this, so I'll sign off. I'm also sleepy so that plays into it too.

 

[InCali]

Not my fault you built your prediction on unpredictable numbers. You had to know that going in.

Dude. The point is that I BUILT my prediction of the BO (for the local Cinemark XD) on numbers that were for a small subset of the DOM BO. As these were for a smaller segment, you can't (fairly anyway) use absolute numbers to compare them as they are smaller and larger entities.

Man, I used to be so good at teaching concepts to people. Now it appears I've lost that touch. They were so smart and so interested in learning....hmmm....maybe I'm on to something.