Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[iEquinox]

November =/= May it's that simple. Doctor strange is not a good comparision because it was obliterated by Fantastic Beasts and Rogue One in overseas markets. Doctor Strange had about the same WW total as Guardians v1 despite having nearly 35M larger opening in WW markets. That should be obvious.

Different release schedule = completely different behavious OS.
Comparing GotG1 and DS in such a simplistic way makes no sense at all.
If one movie only opens in Japan, and opens to 3M, and hen opens in every other market WW the next weekend, it can still do better than a movie that opens to all markets at the same time and makes 200M OS OW. Despite having a nearly 200M larger opening, the 2nd movie can still lose OS. So your example proves nothing whatsoever.

Also, you're saying "November =/= May it's that simple", and then go on to compare a november movie to an august movie. Well, I don't know if you've noticed but November =/= August either.

If you don't think there's going to be at least a 80-100M increase over the first film in overseas market then you are out of your mind. It's going to outgross the WW total of the first film by next weekend, it's already at 383. Unless the floor drops out this weekend 900M is a lock. I don't see how that's possible comparing it to performances of similar Marvel films in the same time period. Good greif TASM2 which was universally panned made 504M overseas on nearly the same release schedule.

We'll see who's "out of his mind" when GotG2 doesn't make 80M+ more than GotG1 OS. Because it clearly won't.

And one simple look at TASM2's OS numbers made it pretty clear it was opening much bigger OS than GotG2. TASM2 made 72M OS on it's 4th weekend, with 404M already in the bank. GotG2 made only 52 M OS on it's 3rd weekend, with 384M in the bank. Clearly GotG2 is at a severe disadvantage in this comparison. Critically panned or not, TASM2 did well OS.

 

[NJCaliboy]

Tony_Stark you have done an eloquent job of stating why you feel this movie is heading toward 900 mil WW and why you feel 1B is still on the table. Equally compelling has been iEquinox in stating why he feels 900 is a longshot at best and that 1B is nothing more than a fantasy at this point.

You each have extrapolated info from previous movies that support your cases and have done a good job in explaning why some info should be used as indicators and why some other instances aren’t good examples. Plain and simple you two just disagree and see things differently. It’s pretty clear that neither one of you is going to convert the other--- but rest assured you have each made your points clear.

Now it’s just a matter of time… that’s what’s going to eventually tell us, which among you is correct. But in either case, bravo to you both for being brave in your predictions.

 

[iEquinox]

Tony_Stark you have done an eloquent job of stating why you feel this movie is heading toward 900 mil WW and why you feel 1B is still on the table. Equally compelling has been iEquinox in stating why he feels 900 is a longshot at best and that 1B is nothing more than a fantasy at this point.

You each have extrapolated info from previous movies that support your cases and have done a good job in explaning why some info should be used as indicators and why some other instances aren’t good examples. Plain and simple you two just disagree and see things differently. It’s pretty clear that neither one of you is going to convert the other--- but rest assured you have each made your points clear.

Now it’s just a matter of time… that’s what’s going to eventually tell us, which among you is correct. But in either case, bravo to you both for being brave in your predictions.

Yeah, it seems like I can't convince Tony_Stark. And he can't convince me. I think it's best if we just drop it for now, at least until more numbers come in. We can just post our thoughts on the numbers coming in without stating how we disagree with eachoter. Time will tell who was right and who was wrong.

 

[iEquinox]

$4,701,588 domestic on monday, a bigger than usual 77.5% drop from sunday.

But that's to be expected since GotG2 seems to have had some help from Mother's Day. It was bound to drop more than usual on monday. It will probably have a big jump on Tuesday (over 40% is possible) because cheap Tuesdays have been getting bigger over the years.

Tomorrow wil also be the first day GotG2's daily gross beats Civil War's daily gross. Today was just about even. That really shows the big difference in early legs compared to Civil War, which started quite a bit higher. Didn't take long for GotG2 to start catching up. Civil war has a 47M lead on GotG2 atm, which should only decrease from now on. Seems like 360M is the floor domestically (It would make 360M if it just keeps doing the same numbers Civil War did). 370-390M is where it seems to be on course for. But it still has a shot at 400M+.

 

[StormC]

None of my local theaters do cheap Tuesdays. I never even heard of the idea until people started posting about it in box office speculation.

 

[NJCaliboy]

None of my local theaters do cheap Tuesdays. I never even heard of the idea until people started posting about it in box office speculation.

If you have AT&T they have buy one get one free for every Tuesday:
https://tickettwosdays.att.com/

 

[Tony Stark]

Different release schedule = completely different behavious OS.
Comparing GotG1 and DS in such a simplistic way makes no sense at all.
If one movie only opens in Japan, and opens to 3M, and hen opens in every other market WW the next weekend, it can still do better than a movie that opens to all markets at the same time and makes 200M OS OW. Despite having a nearly 200M larger opening, the 2nd movie can still lose OS. So your example proves nothing whatsoever.

Also, you're saying "November =/= May it's that simple", and then go on to compare a november movie to an august movie. Well, I don't know if you've noticed but November =/= August either.

What I am saying is that both Guardians v1 and Strange performed about equally for a first installment of a Marvel film. You can expect that a sequel that's well received to outperform the first film, the exceptions to that would be films like Avengers Age of Ultron where the first film was so record setting that it's hard for the second to live up to it. I equally expect that The Last Jedi will not break the records the Force Awakens set, even if people think it's a better film.

We'll see who's "out of his mind" when GotG2 doesn't make 80M+ more than GotG1 OS. Because it clearly won't.

And one simple look at TASM2's OS numbers made it pretty clear it was opening much bigger OS than GotG2. TASM2 made 72M OS on it's 4th weekend, with 404M already in the bank. GotG2 made only 52 M OS on it's 3rd weekend, with 384M in the bank. Clearly GotG2 is at a severe disadvantage in this comparison. Critically panned or not, TASM2 did well OS.

Granted TASM2 had a a huge international multiplier, and it acounted for more than 70% of it's box office totals, still that number was only 60M above what Guardians v1 totaled in the same calendar year, a year in which the box office was down overall.

 

[iEquinox]

What I am saying is that both Guardians v1 and Strange performed about equally for a first installment of a Marvel film. You can expect that a sequel that's well received to outperform the first film, the exceptions to that would be films like Avengers Age of Ultron where the first film was so record setting that it's hard for the second to live up to it. I equally expect that The Last Jedi will not break the records the Force Awakens set, even if people think it's a better film.

The thing is, it has actually already outperformed GotG1 overseas. It only seems like it's still behind because the exchange rates have gotten worse.

If foreign exchange rates in 2014 were the same as they are today, GotG1 would have made 356M OS instead of 440M. My prediction was that GotG2 would end with about 460M OS. That would be a 30% increase in OS viewers over GotG1. With the different exchange rates that 30% increase looks like an increase of only 4.5% on first glance. It can be misleading if you don't take the different exchange rates into consideration.

 

[InCali]

The thing is, it has actually already outperformed GotG1 overseas. It only seems like it's still behind because the exchange rates have gotten worse.

If foreign exchange rates in 2014 were the same as they are today, GotG1 would have made 356M OS instead of 440M. My prediction was that GotG2 would end with about 460M OS. That would be a 30% increase in OS viewers over GotG1. With the different exchange rates that 30% increase looks like an increase of only 4.5% on first glance. It can be misleading if you don't take the different exchange rates into consideration.

When all is said and done, it will be fun and interesting to look at what the exchange rate difference makes.....I should restate that....if you're a total dweeb like I am, it will be fun and interesting.....

 

[HammerDown]

Domestically:
GOTG / 25 days = 253M
GOTG2 / 11 days = 253M

Right now GOTG2 it's 72M ahead of GOTG in the same amount of days.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I think GOTG 2 will inch pass $400M. As far as how much it will finish with worldwide, I'm gonna say $875M WW, enough to pass BvS.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

By this weekend, it will pass $720M-$725M WW, which is $180M-$181M WW for weekends each.

 

[StormC]

How many movies have passed 400M domestically but not a billion globally?

 

[LucDisfilm19]

How many movies have passed 400M domestically but not a billion globally?

Hold on. Let me check.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

How many movies have passed 400M domestically but not a billion globally?

8 movies.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

8 movies.

Follow up question.

8 out of how many?

 

[NJCaliboy]

Follow up question.

8 out of how many?

26 movies have made more than 400m in their domestic totals

 

[NJCaliboy]

Here are the 26 movies that have made more than 400million... i have no idea which 8 didn't hit a 1B WW... even looking at the list I still can't guess which 8 didn't hit 1 billion WW.

1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $936,662,225 2015
2 Avatar Fox $760,507,625 2009^
3 Titanic Par. $658,672,302 1997^
4 Jurassic World Uni. $652,270,625 2015
5 Marvel's The Avengers BV $623,357,910 2012
6 The Dark Knight WB $534,858,444 2008^
7 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story BV $532,177,324 2016
8 Beauty and the Beast (2017) BV $494,441,088 2017
9 Finding Dory BV $486,295,561 2016
10 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace Fox $474,544,677 1999^
11 Star Wars Fox $460,998,007 1977^
12 Avengers: Age of Ultron BV $459,005,868 2015
13 The Dark Knight Rises WB $448,139,099 2012
14 Shrek 2 DW $441,226,247 2004
15 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial Uni. $435,110,554 1982^
16 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire LGF $424,668,047 2013
17 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $423,315,812 2006
18 The Lion King BV $422,783,777 1994^
19 Toy Story 3 BV $415,004,880 2010
20 Iron Man 3 BV $409,013,994 2013
21 Captain America: Civil War BV $408,084,349 2016
22 The Hunger Games LGF $408,010,692 2012
23 Spider-Man Sony $403,706,375 2002
24 Jurassic Park Uni. $402,453,882 1993^
25 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen P/DW $402,111,870 2009
26 Frozen BV $400,738,009 2013

 

[StormC]

Star Wars, Shrek 2, ET, Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Lion King, Hunger Games, Spider-Man, and Transformers: Revenge Of The Fallen.

Interesting to see that AOU made about the same as TDKR domestically but had 300M+ more globally. Shows how much the international market has grown during the 2010s.

 

[Tony Stark]

Here are the 26 movies that have made more than 400million... i have no idea which 8 didn't hit a 1B WW... even looking at the list I still can't guess which 8 didn't hit 1 billion WW.

1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $936,662,225 2015
2 Avatar Fox $760,507,625 2009^
3 Titanic Par. $658,672,302 1997^
4 Jurassic World Uni. $652,270,625 2015
5 Marvel's The Avengers BV $623,357,910 2012
6 The Dark Knight WB $534,858,444 2008^
7 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story BV $532,177,324 2016
8 Beauty and the Beast (2017) BV $494,441,088 2017
9 Finding Dory BV $486,295,561 2016
10 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace Fox $474,544,677 1999^
11 Star Wars Fox $460,998,007 1977^
12 Avengers: Age of Ultron BV $459,005,868 2015
13 The Dark Knight Rises WB $448,139,099 2012
14 Shrek 2 DW $441,226,247 2004
15 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial Uni. $435,110,554 1982^
16 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire LGF $424,668,047 2013
17 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $423,315,812 2006
18 The Lion King BV $422,783,777 1994^
19 Toy Story 3 BV $415,004,880 2010
20 Iron Man 3 BV $409,013,994 2013
21 Captain America: Civil War BV $408,084,349 2016
22 The Hunger Games LGF $408,010,692 2012
23 Spider-Man Sony $403,706,375 2002
24 Jurassic Park Uni. $402,453,882 1993^
25 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen P/DW $402,111,870 2009
26 Frozen BV $400,738,009 2013

Most of the ones that didn't hit 1B did so at a time when north American box office usually accounted for over 50% of the total number. At some point after 2005, international box office became a much bigger part of the gross total for most movies. Some of the exceptions would be Hunger Games which never caught on with international audiences.

 

[Tony Stark]

Guardians at 5.9 on Tuesday, slightly above Civil War. I expect 3rd week drop will be under 50%, so it should perform above Civil War from this point on.

CW 3rd week was 32M, I expect GOTGv2 will be somewhere around 35M.

 

[Erzengel]

Here are the 26 movies that have made more than 400million... i have no idea which 8 didn't hit a 1B WW... even looking at the list I still can't guess which 8 didn't hit 1 billion WW.

1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $936,662,225 2015
2 Avatar Fox $760,507,625 2009^
3 Titanic Par. $658,672,302 1997^
4 Jurassic World Uni. $652,270,625 2015
5 Marvel's The Avengers BV $623,357,910 2012
6 The Dark Knight WB $534,858,444 2008^
7 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story BV $532,177,324 2016
8 Beauty and the Beast (2017) BV $494,441,088 2017
9 Finding Dory BV $486,295,561 2016
10 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace Fox $474,544,677 1999^
11 Star Wars Fox $460,998,007 1977^
12 Avengers: Age of Ultron BV $459,005,868 2015
13 The Dark Knight Rises WB $448,139,099 2012
14 Shrek 2 DW $441,226,247 2004
15 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial Uni. $435,110,554 1982^
16 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire LGF $424,668,047 2013
17 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $423,315,812 2006
18 The Lion King BV $422,783,777 1994^
19 Toy Story 3 BV $415,004,880 2010
20 Iron Man 3 BV $409,013,994 2013
21 Captain America: Civil War BV $408,084,349 2016
22 The Hunger Games LGF $408,010,692 2012
23 Spider-Man Sony $403,706,375 2002
24 Jurassic Park Uni. $402,453,882 1993^
25 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen P/DW $402,111,870 2009
26 Frozen BV $400,738,009 2013

Bolded < $1B

 

[TheVileOne]

Star Wars, Shrek 2, ET, Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Lion King, Hunger Games, Spider-Man, and Transformers: Revenge Of The Fallen.

Interesting to see that AOU made about the same as TDKR domestically but had 300M+ more globally. Shows how much the international market has grown during the 2010s.

Keep in mind though that Star Wars' only made over $400 million because that's counting the other theatrical re-releases.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Despite many big name trades saying Alien will get #1, Box Office Pro still thinks Guardians will BARELY retain the #1 spot and they have a detailed post on why: http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-fo...ry-wimpy-kid-long-haul-everything-everything/

 

[StormC]

Guardians week 3 beating Alien would be the funniest upset of the year.

Keep in mind though that Star Wars' only made over $400 million because that's counting the other theatrical re-releases.

That applies to a lot of the movies on the list. Only reason Jurassic Park reached a billion was because of rereleases.