Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[LucDisfilm19]

Deadline is estimating a $30 million weekend for Guardians another +50% drop. $400 million domestic is out of the question at this point and $900 million WW is as well.

I don't think so, yet. Last Friday, Deadline seemed to think Guardians 2 would make $62.1M. That's when the actuals had it at $65.3M. So, if it continues to get support throughout the weekend, it'll hopefully and barely pass $300M domestically.

 

[Tony Stark]

Deadline is estimating a $30 million weekend for Guardians another +50% drop. $400 million domestic is out of the question at this point and $900 million WW is as well.

BoM is predicting 36M, so predictions are kind of hogwash. I would say 32 or 33, based on the fact it's kind of tracking with Civil War at this point, but might jump ahead.

Alien Covenant I expect will have a huge drop off to Saturday, so it's all dependent on what it gets from the evening shows to see if it can get to 40M.

 

[InCali]

I said people, meaning "audiences", not "critics". The critics score is 73%. The audience score is 67%.

Gotcha.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

BoM is predicting 36M, so predictions are kind of hogwash. I would say 32 or 33, based on the fact it's kind of tracking with Civil War at this point, but might jump ahead.

Alien Covenant I expect will have a huge drop off to Saturday, so it's all dependent on what it gets from the evening shows to see if it can get to 40M.

Considering Alien Covenant is losing audience reception on Rotten Tomatoes now being 2% below Prometheus, I'd be surprised if Guardians 2 rebounds this weekend, especially since it's 14th day was a shorter decline than the last movie.

 

[Tony Stark]

Considering Alien Covenant is losing audience reception on Rotten Tomatoes now being 2% below Prometheus, I'd be surprised if Guardians 2 rebounds this weekend, especially since it's 14th day was a shorter decline than the last movie.

Saw it last night and I can understand why. Fassbender is the only reason to see this movie, but funny that Ridley Scott seems to fail to understand what truely made Ian Holm's Ash so scary from the original. Still the best stuff in this is all Fassbender, the least interesting stuff is the Alien's and the crew. probably not what they were going for.

The film itself is not any better or worst than Prometheus, IMO. It just is what it is. Both films are sorely lacking a character like Ripley that the audiences can get behind. Waterston's character was annying and boring IMO, which is sad because I liked her in Fantastic Beasts.

 

[Bats123]

Im gonna go out on a limb and say its gonna finish at around 880 million.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Im gonna go out on a limb and say its gonna finish at around 880 million.

Me too.

 

[iEquinox]

880 seems a bit high to me. I'm expecting something like 370-380M DOM and 450M OS for 820-830WW.

It will be interesting to see how close it gets to the 26.4M OS 4th weekend Doctor Strange got.
(I'm using DS as a comparison because it is so similar in current trajectory and release schedule)
While Doctor Strange was about 9.5M ahead last weekend, it had Fantastic Beasts to compete with on it's 4th OS weekend.
So I expect GotG2 to get closer to Doctor Strange's OS weekend gross this time, I'm expecting about 23-24M OS this weekend.

Doctor Strange then made another 35M OS in those markets after the 4th weekend. If guardians manages to do the same (and assuming 24M OS this weekend), it would make 59M OS for a total of 459M OS.
However expecting GotG2 to match DS every day after this weekend seems too optimistic, especially with PotC5 to compete with the following weekend, and with it already making less this weekend.
That's why I expect it to come in lower with roughly 450M OS. This OS weekend and the next will give a lot more information about where it can end up OS.

(In the last 4 OS weekdays GotG2 made 17.5M OS compared to 23M for DS on the same weekdays. Thats 31% more for DS. I expect that gap to be closer than 31% this weekend, but next weekend that smaller gap will increase again because of PotC5.)

 

[Juan1193]

Man have I been off this year with my predictions! I predicted this movie would make a billion easily! But seeing the current numbers that's not happening! 900 million isn't happening either! It'll likely end up in the 800 million range which by itself is awesome but far off from what I and many on here were expecting. Still a success though

 

[iEquinox]

Man have I been off this year with my predictions! I predicted this movie would make a billion easily! But seeing the current numbers that's not happening! 900 million isn't happening either! It'll likely end up in the 800 million range which by itself is awesome but far off from what I and many on here were expecting. Still a success though

It's pretty much the same story as the first GotG: it did well OS, but the domestic numbers were much more impressive.

GotG was only 17M off from being the highest grossing movie released in 2014 domestically, while it was over 400M off from being #1 OS, and finished in 10th place OS that year.

Having said that, if foreign exchange rates hadn't changed since 2014, GotG2 would easily have crossed the $900M mark. That shows that the audience for the movie has grown substantially, which is great. $800M+ is still a great result. If you had told me 10 years ago that a movie about the guardians of the galaxy, starring a talking raccoon and a walking baby tree would make over 800M WW, I would probably have thought you were crazy xD

Guardians of the Galaxy being one of the most anticipated blockbusters of the year is a actually pretty amazing if you think about it.

 

[StormC]

Yeah, I predicted if Guardians couldn't hold its crown against Alien that it wouldn't cross a billion. Not reaching 900M would be a bit of a bummer, though.

 

[TheVileOne]

Even it makes just $874 million worldwide, that would be absolutely perfect.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/alien-covenant-diary-of-a-wimpy-kid-everything-everything-box-office-previews-1202097673/

Meanwhile, there’s some B.O. milestones this weekend: Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 will click past $300M by Sunday with only another $33M to go before it surpasses GOTG.

2.). The Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 (DIS), 4,347 theaters (0)/ $8.7M Fri. (-47%)/ 3-day cume: $33.6M (-48%)/Total: $300.3M/ Wk 3

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Late as hell on this but the 2nd weekend drop for Vol 2 was great. The 55.5 % drop (it was 55.3% drop for the first one) is extremely good for big CBMs.

 

[StormC]

Even it makes just $874 million worldwide, that would be absolutely perfect.

Spoiler

GOTG1 already made more money than that other movie domestically anyway.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

Any chance the movie will cross 1 billion?

 

[Iceman]

Deadline is estimating a $30 million weekend for Guardians another +50% drop. $400 million domestic is out of the question at this point and $900 million WW is as well.

I'd hope for more than $30m. It doesn't have to get to those benchmarks for me, this is still a solid result whatever happens now.

 

[Panacea]

Any chance the movie will cross 1 billion?

Nope.

 

[dc_mos]

Even it makes just $874 million worldwide, that would be absolutely perfect.

I think $872 million will be good. t:

 

[Raiden]

Even it makes just $874 million worldwide, that would be absolutely perfect.

But it will still failed to live up to the initial expectation. Both BATB and Furious 8 made a billion, and GOTG2 was just as anticipated as those two movies. If it can't even crack 900M then I think it will be disappointing at the very least.

 

[Filmfan93]

But it will still failed to live up to the initial expectation. Both BATB and Furious 8 made a billion, and GOTG2 was just as anticipated as those two movies. If it can't even crack 900M then I think it will be disappointing at the very least.

I don't see getting to $800 million disappointing to the slightest bit.

Besides, many people may have been exhausted already by the classic Marvel formula that has been going for 9 years already.

Not that I didn't like the movie. I almost loved it, but it's typical Marvel formula and nothing too groundbreaking.

 

[marcvader]

Even if a movie is groundbreaking it doesn't mean it will make a billion nor does it mean a billion dollar film is a groundbreaking one. By the way BatB and Furious 8 were more anticipated than GotG2.

 

[The Endless]

850 or thereabouts is a great success really. I don't know why people were talking billions.

 

[Iceman]

TDK & TDKR, the 2 Avengers films and CW & Iron Man 3.

That's it for superhero billion dollar films to date.

All on the back of 2 phenomenons, TDK and the first Avengers.

Inlfation and worldwide box office growth will see others join that club eventually but for now it's still a big ask of non-team-up films.

 

[Chesterfield]

So what's the actual numbers of this thing?