Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[TheVileOne]

And ET for that matter.

I'm pushing for Guardians to beat Alien Covenant this weekend, and I hope that happens. Ridley Scott has way too much hubris.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

That applies to a lot of the movies on the list. Only reason Jurassic Park reached a billion was because of rereleases.

Same for The Dark Knight.

 

[StormC]

I mean... TDK was only 3 million shy of it, so you can see why WB reran it.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/alien-c...alaxy-vol-2-everything-everything-1202096372/

20th Century Fox’s Alien: Covenant is expected to claw its way to the top of the weekend box office with $35M-$40M, ending the two-weekend No. 1 reign of Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 which will land in second in the low $30M range.

 

[InCali]

Guardians week 3 beating Alien would be the funniest upset of the year.



That applies to a lot of the movies on the list. Only reason Jurassic Park reached a billion was because of rereleases.

A little quirk of mine that absolutely no one cares one iota about is that when I compare all time DOM BO totals, I have two columns; first releases and re-releases.

In the first releases column, for example, Avengers > Titanic. I don't think it fair to compare singly released movies to those with re-releases.

WW BO numbers from a decade ago can't, IMO, be fairly compared at all. They probably still can't be compared for even more contracted time frames due to continued growth.

 

[InCali]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/alien-c...alaxy-vol-2-everything-everything-1202096372/

It "should" beat GotG2. It's getting decent reviews and is a well known franchise. I personally thought the trailer was underwhelming and am not personally excited because, while I rather like Prometheus (yeah, I'm one of those), I haven't seen a really good Alien movie in a LOOOOOOOOONG time and some of them were absolute carp.

 

[InCali]

At this point, the very least GotG will bring in US/CAN will be 370M and that would only be if everything went south. There's too much goodwill towards this movie and I expect it to be closer to 400M.

 

[Iceman]

A little quirk of mine that absolutely no one cares one iota about is that when I compare all time DOM BO totals, I have two columns; first releases and re-releases.

In the first releases column, for example, Avengers > Titanic. I don't think it fair to compare singly released movies to those with re-releases.

WW BO numbers from a decade ago can't, IMO, be fairly compared at all. They probably still can't be compared for even more contracted time frames due to continued growth.

Those aren't quirks, they're both valid observations.

 

[HammerDown]

Waited 3 days to see if this was "real" or not but now i think i can say that it really is... The box office numbers for GOTG2 are starting to decrease gradually in comparison to GOTG.

GOTG2 still 70M ahead of the first one in the same amount of days but now it looks like the day by day comparison is starting to favor GOTG numbers. 3rd day in a row that GOTG had a better return than GOTG2 domestically. It's a small margin but it's still there.

GOTG --------------------GOTG2
Monday - 5.3 -------------- 4.7
Tuesday - 6.6 -------------- 5.9
Wednesday - 4.8 ----------- 3.9

It's still going to make more on the weekend than the first one but it's a little sign i think that the legs for this won't be as strong.

 

[iEquinox]

So comparing the biggest foreign markets results for both GOTG and GOTG2 we get some interesting pairings. Of course all of the markets are still open for this movie so take that into account too...

GOTG ------------ // ---------- GOTG 2

Australia - 23M === 19M *
Brazil ---- 16M === 14M *
China ---- 86M === 80M *
France --- 19M === 16M *
Germany - 24M === 18M *
Mexico ---- 19M === 15M *
Russia ----- 23M === 12M * *
Spain ------ 10M === 6M *
South Korea - 9M === 18M *
UK --------- 47M === 35M *
Japan ----- 9M === ? (Hasn't been added yet. Released on the 12th)

*Over Performing GOTG
* * Same numbers basically
China only 11 days into release! It will easily cross the 100M mark.
South only 13 days into release! It probably will also pass the 25M.

I don't think it will get to 100M in china. Other big movies (such as Dangal) have cut its legs short. It will be at about 88M after making an estimated $1.1M this friday, it's running out of gas quickly over there.

Waited 3 days to see if this was "real" or not but now i think i can say that it really is... The box office numbers for GOTG2 are starting to decrease gradually in comparison to GOTG.

GOTG2 still 70M ahead of the first one in the same amount of days but now it looks like the day by day comparison is starting to favor GOTG numbers. 3rd day in a row that GOTG had a better return than GOTG2 domestically. It's a small margin but it's still there.

GOTG --------------------GOTG2
Monday - 5.3 -------------- 4.7
Tuesday - 6.6 -------------- 5.9
Wednesday - 4.8 ----------- 3.9

It's still going to make more on the weekend than the first one but it's a little sign i think that the legs for this won't be as strong.

I could have told you that in 2014. GotG2 never really had a chance of having a multiplier as big as GotG. The first one was a surprise, expectations weren't as high, so many people didn't see it on the first weekend. Good WoM then drew more people in, and with some help of august's bigger weekdays it got a very good multiplier for a CBM (3.53x).

GotG2 on the other hand was one of the most anticipated movies of the year, being released in May. Getting a multiplier of over 3 would have been a huge accomplishment. Even over 2.5 is impressive. Over 3.5 was just not going to happen.

Keep in mind that if GotG2 had legs as good as GotG it would end with over 517M domestically.

 

[InCali]

Waited 3 days to see if this was "real" or not but now i think i can say that it really is... The box office numbers for GOTG2 are starting to decrease gradually in comparison to GOTG.

GOTG2 still 70M ahead of the first one in the same amount of days but now it looks like the day by day comparison is starting to favor GOTG numbers. 3rd day in a row that GOTG had a better return than GOTG2 domestically. It's a small margin but it's still there.

GOTG --------------------GOTG2
Monday - 5.3 -------------- 4.7
Tuesday - 6.6 -------------- 5.9
Wednesday - 4.8 ----------- 3.9

It's still going to make more on the weekend than the first one but it's a little sign i think that the legs for this won't be as strong.

Of course it's real and it's going to start decreasing at a faster rate. It was never going to have GotG's legs for more reasons than I can count....well, maybe not that many cuz I can get up to 10 or so before I start getting confused....

 

[InCali]

I don't think it will get to 100M in china. Other big movies (such as Dangal) have cut its legs short. It will be at about 88M after making an estimated $1.1M this friday, it's running out of gas quickly over there.


I could have told you that in 2014. GotG2 never really had a chance of having a multiplier as big as GotG. The first one was a surprise, expectations weren't as high, so many people didn't see it on the first weekend. Good WoM then drew more people in, and with some help of august's bigger weekdays it got a very good multiplier for a CBM (3.53x).

GotG2 on the other hand was one of the most anticipated movies of the year, being released in May. Getting a multiplier of over 3 would have been a huge accomplishment. Even over 2.5 is impressive. Over 3.5 was just not going to happen.

Keept in mind that if GotG2 had legs as good as GotG it would end with over 517M domestically.

Just wondering.....I wonder what the best multiplier for a CBM is? I'll bet GotG is the highest for an MCU movie. I wouldn't call it "very good"; I'd call it "great" or "outstanding".

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

It "should" beat GotG2. It's getting decent reviews and is a well known franchise. I personally thought the trailer was underwhelming and am not personally excited because, while I rather like Prometheus (yeah, I'm one of those), I haven't seen a really good Alien movie in a LOOOOOOOOONG time and some of them were absolute carp.

io9 ripped the new Aliens film to shreds, saying it was hot garbage and actually makes the first Aliens and Prometheus worse due to it's existence.

 

[iEquinox]

Just wondering.....I wonder what the best multiplier for a CBM is? I'll bet GotG is the highest for an MCU movie. I wouldn't call it "very good"; I'd call it "great" or "outstanding".

I don't know what the best multiplier ever is for a CBM. It will probably be an old movie.
'78 Superman is probably up there with a 17.98x multiplier, but that was a completely different era at the box office No CBM today has a chance of reaching multipliers like that anytime soon.

GotG does have the best multiplier in the MCU with 3.532.
Ant-man is 2nd with 3.149 (also helped by summer release)
Iron Man 3rd with 3.120
Avengers 4th with 3.005
Then there's a bit of a gap to Thor in 5th with 2.754.

Civil War had the lowest multiplier in the MCU with 2.278.

Edit: The 1982 movie "Annie" has the highest multiplier I can find for a comic book adaptation, with a 111.74x multiplier. Something that's obviously unattainable today.

 

[InCali]

I don't know what the best multiplier ever is for a CBM. It will probably be an old movie.
'78 Superman is probably up there with a 17.98x multiplier, but that was a completely different era at the box office No CBM today has a chance of reaching multipliers like that anytime soon.

GotG does have the best multiplier in the MCU with 3.532.
Ant-man is 2nd with 3.149 (also helped by summer release)
Iron Man 3rd with 3.120
Avengers 4th with 3.005
Then there's a bit of a gap to Thor in 5th with 2.754.

Civil War had the lowest multiplier in the MCU with 2.278.

Edit: The 1982 movie "Annie" has the highest multiplier I can find for a comic book adaptation, with a 111.74x multiplier. Something that's obviously unattainable today.

I love (most of) the people on SHH. We're such a bunch of little dweebs. Someone asks some arcane question and we go scurrying off to do our research. t:

 

[InCali]

io9 ripped the new Aliens film to shreds, saying it was hot garbage and actually makes the first Aliens and Prometheus worse due to it's existence.

That's interesting. It's been solidly in the mid-70s on RT. Maybe Disney is paying io9 to....oh never mind....

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Currently, trades are predicting $32.6-$36.2M for Guardians 2's third weekend. If that's in the middle of those projections, it could be a $34.5M third weekend for Guardians Volume 2.

 

[InCali]

Currently, trades are predicting $32.6-$36.2M for Guardians 2's third weekend. If that's in the middle of those projections, it could be a $34.5M third weekend for Guardians Volume 2.

It has tended to over perform and be on the high side of the BO #s. We'll see how things go, but I suspect this will be the case.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Alright, guys. Its the start of the weekend. Let's see if we can get Guardians 2 to pass $300M here in the states by Sunday and/or attempt to get it to beat Alien: Covenant this weekend, which we have an advantage of given that according to Rotten Tomatoes, people like it less than Prometheus by 1%, 67% for A:C compared to 68% for Prometheus.

 

[Zant]

io9 ripped the new Aliens film to shreds, saying it was hot garbage and actually makes the first Aliens and Prometheus worse due to it's existence.

No one cares about io9.

It looks like Aliens will win the weekend. Not surprising to me. Civil War lost out to Angry Birds at this same stage after all. The memorial weekend should give Guardians a good boost.

 

[InCali]

Alright, guys. Its the start of the weekend. Let's see if we can get Guardians 2 to pass $300M here in the states by Sunday and/or attempt to get it to beat Alien: Covenant this weekend, which we have an advantage of given that according to Rotten Tomatoes, people like it less than Prometheus by 1%, 67% for A:C compared to 68% for Prometheus.

It looks like RT has it at 73%. I'm going to take my mom to see it next week so I won't be much help. I've seen it twice already.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

It looks like RT has it at 73%. I'm going to take my mom to see it next week so I won't be much help. I've seen it twice already.

I said people, meaning "audiences", not "critics". The critics score is 73%. The audience score is 67%.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Guardians has now made $266.7M in 14 days. It only needs $33.3M to make $300M on Sunday.

 

[superion]

Deadline is estimating a $30 million weekend for Guardians another +50% drop. $400 million domestic is out of the question at this point and $900 million WW is as well.

 

[Darepool]

Such is life.