Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Lilbaz]

Oh I know what you are trying to do. I know you'll "blame the movie" and claim people didn't like it if it doesn't match your prediction.

This despite the fact that box office and quality do not go hand in hand.

Just own your prediction with no excuses. Heck...I could totally be wrong here. I can admit it if it happens. Maybe there is room for GotG to grow.


Because the box office was such a surprise. Exactly like Deadpool. And Deadpool 2 is also not going to match the first. The novelty factor is gone with the second one. You'll get a bigger OW but it's going to be the same people that saw it over the course of many weeks the first time.

So you can't really compare GotG to Capt America and Thor which did "ok" and had room to grow. GotG gathered in all its audience right off the bat.

There were still people that saw it on dvd or other means that liked it that will go to the cinema to see the second one.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Oh I know what you are trying to do. I know you'll "blame the movie" and claim people didn't like it if it doesn't match your prediction.

This despite the fact that box office and quality do not go hand in hand.

Just own your prediction with no excuses. Heck...I could totally be wrong here. I can admit it if it happens. Maybe there is room for GotG to grow.

Whether a movie is "good" or not, is up to the individual. Box office trends however show how the masses feel about a movie in general.

As to the possibility of you being wrong.

How many sequels do you think open up to 150% of the first film in a series domestically, and then don't end up making more domestically? Because that is the tracking right now, and it has been solidly for a while. The RT score is pretty darn good so far, so chances are that won't be chasing people off.

How many MCU sequels have made less then the previous film in the series? The answer is one. AoU. Which was trying to get to 1.5bil and sadly only made it to 1.4bil.

Though interestingly enough, it actually made 50m more overseas then the first film.

You have made up a ceiling that makes no sense to exist, acting like GotG was an Avengers size event, that saw all time great openings. It didn't. When you are opening well above the original, chances are the legs aren't going to be so bad it plateaus with the first films numbers, which weren't close to all time great. So I am not the one predicting this movie isn't going to be liked. That is you.

 

[The Endless]

This film will make 800 million minimum.

 

[Panacea]

Because the box office was such a surprise. Exactly like Deadpool. And Deadpool 2 is also not going to match the first. The novelty factor is gone with the second one. You'll get a bigger OW but it's going to be the same people that saw it over the course of many weeks the first time.

There's no such thing as novelty factor when it comes to movies. Prepare to be proved wrong. Twice.

 

[Panacea]

The vast majority of people don't do repeat viewings in the cinema.

But the ones that do are worth several times more to the studio than the ones that don't.

 

[Inhuman117]

how long til we get the oversee numbers from this weekend ?

 

[Samuron]

how long til we get the oversee numbers from this weekend ?

Box office Mojo has it at $101,200,000.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/04/guardia...-2-china-international-box-office-1202079772/

Rocketing off in 37 markets this weekend, Disney/Marvel’s Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 scored a $101.2M opening at the international box office. The launch is 57% ahead of the first Guardians, 50% bigger than Captain America: The Winter Soldier and 19% above Thor: The Dark World when comparing the same suite of territories and all at today’s exchange rates. There’s more fuel on deck this weekend as many markets have a holiday tomorrow for May Day.

The opening is in line with pre-weekend projections which hovered around the $100M mark. Chris Pratt’s Peter Quill got off to an especially good start on Tuesday last week, taking advantage of holidays in Italy and Australia/New Zealand. This is the same late-April sweet spot that has seen Disney release such Marvel tentpoles as Captain America: Civil War, Avengers: Age Of Ultron and Iron Man 3.

Although Civil War is not a fantastic comp here given that it hulks out as essentially an Avengers movie, it’s interesting to note that GOTG2 has opened above it in some key markets. Those include Germany and France.

In all openings this weekend, the James Gunn-helmed sequel was the No. 1 movie (save in Portugal, Turkey and Vietnam). It also bested the original in each market, except for Belgium which had previews the last time around. On 176 IMAX screens, and ahead of a big push this week, GOTG2 made $5M.

The biggest play is the UK with $15.5M, followed by Australia at $11.6M, Germany with $8.3M, France at $7.9M and Mexico with $7.6M. In the UK, Disney now has the top two openers of 2017 led by Beauty And The Beast and with GOTG2 in 2nd. The film’s debut is also the 2nd biggest ever for a Marvel Cinematic Universe title — behind Captain America: Civil War, and ahead of GOTG by 86%.

GOTG2 is currently in 58% of its offshore footprint with domestic and the rest of the world, including China but not yet Japan, pressing play on Awesome Mixtape #2 this coming week (more detail to follow).

 

[JeetKuneDo]

There were still people that saw it on dvd or other means that liked it that will go to the cinema to see the second one.

Possibly, but I recall the first one getting enough buzz after opening that most who were interested went to see it.

That's what we are about to find out.

Whether a movie is "good" or not, is up to the individual. Box office trends however show how the masses feel about a movie in general.

Box office also shows that people rush to see a new thing and aren't as exited about the sequel of the new shiny thing no matter how the fans feel about it.

As to the possibility of you being wrong.

How many sequels do you think open up to 150% of the first film in a series domestically, and then don't end up making more domestically? Because that is the tracking right now, and it has been solidly for a while. The RT score is pretty darn good so far, so chances are that won't be chasing people off.

How many MCU sequels have made less then the previous film in the series? The answer is one. AoU. Which was trying to get to 1.5bil and sadly only made it to 1.4bil.

Though interestingly enough, it actually made 50m more overseas then the first film.

You have made up a ceiling that makes no sense to exist, acting like GotG was an Avengers size event, that saw all time great openings. It didn't. When you are opening well above the original, chances are the legs aren't going to be so bad it plateaus with the first films numbers, which weren't close to all time great. So I am not the one predicting this movie isn't going to be liked. That is you.

There is a different ceiling for every franchise. They aren't all the same size.
Someone else mentioned the unfavorable exchange rate as well so that won't help. This getting to 1 billion seems very unlikely to me. Overseas would have to carry the load because I don't see domestic increasing.

There's no such thing as novelty factor when it comes to movies. Prepare to be proved wrong. Twice.

I can live with it, but I'm not convinced it's going to make more domestically for sure. We'll see.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Box office also shows that people rush to see a new thing and aren't as exited about the sequel of the new shiny thing no matter how the fans feel about it.

So explain the trend of superhero sequels increasing on the previous films. Explain why Pitch Perfect 2, not nearly as beloved as the first, kicked the crap out of the first film's box office. Explain how Furious 8 is the first Fast movie since the 4th to actually see a backwards step in the box office, but is still already over a billion. Explain

There is a different ceiling for every franchise. They aren't all the same size.
Someone else mentioned the unfavorable exchange rate as well so that won't help. This getting to 1 billion seems very unlikely to me. Overseas would have to carry the load because I don't see domestic increasing.

I can live with it, but I'm not convinced it's going to make more domestically for sure. We'll see.

I mentioned the exchange rate or at least I have mentioned in box office threads recently. It is a problem, but then you look at films like Furious 8 and BatB and the money is still clearly there.

Did you miss the post above you? The one that showed it opened 57% higher in the territories it opened in comparison to last time, , while not even opening in China or the US yet.

For comparison when it comes to specific territories:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=marvel2014a.htm

 

[Vincanws]

Just speaking for myself, I saw it for the first time today, and I'm seeing it again on Monday, and again on my birthday soon.

I'll be seeing it once more, I'm keen to experience the IMAX version again.

 

[Silver Surfer]

http://deadline.com/2017/04/guardia...-2-china-international-box-office-1202079772/

And people here are arguing whether or not it's gonna hit a billion, it's a lock, has been for a while.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

And people here are arguing whether or not it's gonna hit a billion, it's a lock, has been for a while.

Its not a "lock". But it is definitely off to a good start, and should be able to pass the first film pretty easily in that regard.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Its not a "lock". But it is definitely off to a good start, and should be able to pass the first film pretty easily in that regard.

Looks like a lock to me, taking bets if anyone's interested...

 

[2kt09]

Fast & Furious money

 

[JeetKuneDo]

So explain the trend of superhero sequels increasing on the previous films. Explain why Pitch Perfect 2, not nearly as beloved as the first, kicked the crap out of the first film's box office. Explain how Furious 8 is the first Fast movie since the 4th to actually see a backwards step in the box office, but is still already over a billion. Explain

I notice you didn't mention all the movies where the sequel did less than the first one whether it is beloved or not. It's all about hitting the ceiling for that particular franchise. And it's not the same number either.

I mentioned the exchange rate or at least I have mentioned in box office threads recently. It is a problem, but then you look at films like Furious 8 and BatB and the money is still clearly there.

Did you miss the post above you? The one that showed it opened 57% higher in the territories it opened in comparison to last time, , while not even opening in China or the US yet.

For comparison when it comes to specific territories:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=marvel2014a.htm

Maybe overseas will increase enough to put it over. I could be totally wrong. But I'm not seeing an increase domestic....I could be wrong there too. It's fine, it's just a prediction...we get them wrong all the time. If you are trying to get me to change my prediction, I'm not going to do that. I'm totally willing to admit I was wrong though.

 

[Zant]

Its not a "lock". But it is definitely off to a good start, and should be able to pass the first film pretty easily in that regard.

If this misses a billion, should we blame that on the return of Star Wars

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...-2-china-international-box-office-1202079772/

MONDAY UPDATE, WRITETHRU with GOTG2 actuals: Rocketing off in 37 markets this weekend, Disney/Marvel’s Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 came in nearly $5M higher than projected on Sunday. With a $106M opening at the international box office, the launch was notably stronger than forecast in both Europe (+$3.1M) and Latin America (+$1.1M). That ratchets the debut up to 64% bigger than the first Guardians, 57% bigger than Captain America: The Winter Soldier and 24% above Thor: The Dark World when comparing the same suite of territories and all at today’s exchange rates. Many markets have a holiday today for May Day.
The GOTG2 opening is in line with pre-weekend projections which hovered around the $100M mark. Chris Pratt’s Peter Quill got off to an especially good start on Tuesday last week, taking advantage of holidays in Italy and Australia/New Zealand. This is the same late-April sweet spot that has seen Disney release such Marvel tentpoles as Captain America: Civil War, Avengers: Age Of Ultron and Iron Man 3.

Although Civil War is not a fantastic comp here given that it hulks out as essentially an Avengers movie, it’s interesting to note that GOTG2 has opened above it in some key markets. Those include Germany and France which are both in the Top 5 hubs.

GOTG2 is currently in 58% of its offshore footprint with domestic and the rest of the world, including China but not yet Japan, pressing play on Awesome Mixtape #2 this coming week. It’s expected to continue to outperform the previous film with China potentially playing a pivotal role. The market was tops on GOTG in 2014, even after the movie released more than two months later than the rest of the rollout. It still charmed the PROC with $96.5M to lead all overseas plays.

In all openings this weekend, the James Gunn-helmed sequel was the No. 1 movie (save in Portugal, Turkey and Vietnam). It also bested the original in each market, except for Belgium which had previews the last time around. On 176 IMAX screens, and ahead of a big push this week, GOTG2 made $5M.

The biggest play is the UK with $16.9M, followed by Australia at $11.8M, Germany with $9.3M, Mexico at $8.2M and France with $7.9M. In the UK, Disney now has the top two openers of 2017 led by Beauty And The Beast and with GOTG2 in 2nd. The film’s Friday debut is also the 2nd biggest opening day ever for a Marvel Cinematic Universe title — behind Captain America: Civil War, and ahead of GOTG by 86%.

 

[samsnee]

What's nice about this series is that if you only saw the first one, that's fine. Unlike the rest of the MCU which can be overwhelming to catch up on. So I can that being a reason why this would open higher than Civil War in some areas.

 

[Web-Head]

Thinking 900-1B. There isn't much competition surrounding this for the next few weeks so I think it'll do really well. Especially with college kids getting out for the summer soon.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...ango-advance-ticket-sales-records-1202080383/

Already having bagged a huge $106 million in its overseas opening this past weekend, Disney/Marvel’s Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 is looking to shake up the box office business in the U.S. and Canada this coming weekend. Tracking for a while indicated a $150M bow, but given the Marvel sequel’s momentum overseas, one stateside exhibition chief told us recently, “I’d bet well over that mark.”

Since April 24 on Fandango, Guardians 2 has been the No. 1 ticket seller every day and already is outstripping at this point advance sales of Marvel’s 2015 sequel Avengers: Age Of Ultron. That Marvel sequel stands as the fourth-best domestic opening of all-time with $191.3M, after Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247.9M, 2015), Jurassic World ($208.8M, 2015), and Marvel’s The Avengers ($207.4M, 2012). The first Guardians opened to $94.3M in August 2014 and stands as that month’s highest-grossing movie of all time with $333.1M stateside.

Unaided awareness, a tracking indicator that shows the strength of a movie’s awareness without being prompted by a pollster, is through the roof for GOTG2 with 42% overall awareness. Men over 25 are showing the strongest interest in GOTG2 (44%) followed by men under 25 (43%) and women under 25 and over 25 (both at 40%).

In a recent Fandango survey, those polled revealed that 79% saw the first GOTG on the big screen; 74% are excited to see the sequel’s greater emphasis on stronger female action heroes; and 62% say Kurt Russell as Chris Pratt’s dad increases their interest in seeing GOTG2. Another nugget: 97% plan to stick around after the movie ends to watch all five post-credits scenes.

“Its popularity has grown exponentially since the first Guardians Of The Galaxy surprised audiences as a monster hit,” said Fandango managing editor Erik Davis about the sequel. “The series’ visual inventiveness, coupled with the addition of Baby Groot and another fantastic soundtrack in Vol. 2, is fueling even more excitement as Marvel Studios looks to kick off the summer movie season in a massive way.”

 

[ImSGirl95]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...ango-advance-ticket-sales-records-1202080383/

In a recent Fandango survey, those polled revealed that 79% saw the first GOTG on the big screen; 74% are excited to see the sequel’s greater emphasis on stronger female action heroes; and 62% say Kurt Russell as Chris Pratt’s dad increases their interest in seeing GOTG2. Another nugget: 97% plan to stick around after the movie ends to watch all five post-credits scenes.

Music to my ears!

 

[Zarex]

I was thinking that this franchise may have come close to its ceiling with the first one, but apparently there's a lot of growth left. This looks like another "evergreen" franchise alongside Avengers and we'll be getting installments and spin-offs (Rocket & Groot!) until the heat death of the universe.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

I'm also wondering if it will get the same boost from the soundtrack that the first one got. That's another variable.

 

[Panacea]

Looks like a lock to me, taking bets if anyone's interested...

You should rethink this.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ebut-can-it-still-top-1-billion/#61d4b99e5f55