Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Darkraid]

But the ones that do are worth several times more to the studio than the ones that don't.

I actually watched GOTG vol 1 4 times in the cinema because I loved it so much.

 

[Silver Surfer]

You should rethink this.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ebut-can-it-still-top-1-billion/#61d4b99e5f55

Thought about it, it's still a...

 

[Lord]

I was thinking that this franchise may have come close to its ceiling with the first one, but apparently there's a lot of growth left. This looks like another "evergreen" franchise alongside Avengers and we'll be getting installments and spin-offs (Rocket & Groot!) until the heat death of the universe.

Fortunately, i doubt Marvel will start making any spin-offs. Their Iron Man films also kept growing more and more populat, yet, they have been careful not to overexpose Tony Stark. If they play their cards right, they will be just as careful with the Guardians films.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...-may-day-box-office-international-1202081842/

Disney/Marvel’s Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 continued its stellar offshore run on Monday, collecting another $26.9M at the international box office. That brings the offshore total to $132.9M. Yesterday was the May Day holiday in many markets including the UK which had an awesome $6.1M Monday. The UK is the lead play for the James Gunn-helmed pic so far with $23M to date.

The $26.9M grossed in 37 material markets on Monday represents 29% of the film’s $106M debut weekend which came in 64% higher than the original Guardians Of The Galaxy launch when looking at the same suite of release markets and at today’s exchange rates.

That film’s first Monday was not a holiday, so isn’t a meaningful comp in this case. The Avengers, on the other hand, had a May Day holiday on its first Tuesday which was 25% of the launch weekend. (Domestically, where GOTG2 bows on Friday, it’s outstripping advance sales of the 2015 sequel Avengers: Age Of Ultron.)

In the UK, notable stats include GOTG2‘s £17.85M already overtaking the local currency lifetimes of such MCU and DC titles as Captain America (£10.3M), Thor (£14M), Ant-Man (£16.3M), Wolverine Origins (£16.3M), Superman Returns (£16.4M), Batman Begins (£16.5M) and Iron Man (£17.4M).

Behind the UK on GOTG2 for now are Australia ($12.6M), Germany ($11.7M), France ($10.8M), Mexico ($10.6M), Brazil ($9.1M), Italy ($4.9M), Spain ($4.4M), Indonesia ($4.4M) and the Philippines ($3.7M).

Among big hubs next hooking up with Chris Pratt’s Peter Quill and the gang is Korea on Wednesday, followed by Russia and Argentina on Thursday and China on Friday. GOTG2 is expected to continue to outperform the previous film with China, as ever, playing a key role. The market was tops on GOTG in 2014, even after it released more than two months later than the rest of the rollout.

 

[Flint Marko]

I never thought this would hit a billion and frankly it doesn't need to. I'm guessing around 900 million.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...omestic-box-office-opening-disney-1202081877/

After stoking the media two weeks ago with early screenings, Disney’s Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 is looking at a U.S./Canada opening between $140 million-$160 million at about 4,300 theaters.

No other summer in box office history has ever clicked past the $5 billion mark for the May-through-Labor Day period (2013 came closest with $4.75B), so here’s to GOTG2 getting the industry off on the right foot. For the frame of January 1-April 30, the 2017 box office counts $3.7B, 4.3% ahead of the same period a year ago. And as everyone knows, last year ultimately churned out an industry record $11.4B.

Even though Guardians 2’s FSS number won’t topple the all-time May record set by Marvel’s The Avengers ($207.4M), what’s impressive is that the comic-book label proves again that most superhero sequels can outstrip their predecessors’ openings — in the case of Guardians 2, its three-day will whip the first movie’s $94.3M opening by at least 59%. Should GOTG2 hit the high end of its estimates, it will rank as the 11th-best opening ever at the domestic box office, and the fifth best for May after Avengers, Avengers: Age Of Ultron ($191.3M), Captain America: Civil War ($179.1M), and Iron Man 3 ($174.1M).

The $20M swing in GOTG2‘s prediction stems from tracking’s nature: When pics are forecasted beyond $100M over three days, pinpointing their exact outcome is a harder statistical challenge for analysts. In fact, there’s one outlying tracker who believes the sequel will open to $100M, and that the movie is playing too young in its Baby Groot promotions. But that firm is in the minority.

That’s because GOTG2 has a lot of steam behind it. After Hollywood journalists were given a tour of the Marvel offices in Burbank two weeks ago, along with a screening of the film, the pic now sits on Rotten Tomatoes with an 85% certified fresh score, which isn’t that far from the 2014’s 91% fresh rating. Marvel knows it needs critics on their side for a long-legged superhero summer success.

On Fandango, GOTG2 is already beating Avengers: Age Of Ultron in advance tickets sales, and that Marvel movie opened to $191.3M two years ago. GOTG2 is also blessed with $80M in promo spots across Ford, Geico, Hanes and Dairy Queen to name a few of the pic’s promo partners. The GOTG2 soundtrack alone is one of its biggest pieces of marketing with its canon of 1970s songs having already pushed 34,000 copies after an April 21 digital drop and April 28 CD sale. The first GOTG soundtrack of 1960s and ’70s tunes sold 1.75M units in 2014, was the fifth best-selling album that year.

In addition, one big circuit exhibition chief told us that after GOTG2 logged a $106M overseas opening (foreign cume currently at $133M), that heat wave would travel over to the U.S. and potentially tip the sequel’s opening north of $150M stateside.

Here in the states, GOTG2 will have extra rocket fuel from 3,800-plus 3D locations, 388 Imax screens, 588 premium large-format locations, and 194 D-Box locations. Previews start Thursday at 7 PM. The last two Marvel movies that kicked off May, Ultron and Civil War, drew 33% of their Friday business from Thursday night, earning $27.6M and $25M in previews, respectively.

In 550 theaters around the country Thursday, a special RealD Guardians Of The Galaxy double feature event will lead into those 7 PM shows. Guests who participate in the special fan event will receive an exclusive mini poster and a set of souvenir collectible buttons. Participating exhibitors for the double feature include AMC, Cinemark, Cineplex, National Amusements, and Regal Cinemas.

K-12 schools are still in session, with 16% of colleges on summer break. However, that has never hurt that crowd from coming out during the first weekend of May.

In addition to North America, GOTG2 debuts in Korea (May 3), Russia and Argentina (May 4), and China (May 5). Pic hits Japan on May 12.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Damn, the top 5 may OW in history are all gonna belong to Marvel. Impressive but Star Wars is gonna dust em' when SW9 comes out, have some doubts about Han Solo though, don't think it has enough juice to crack the top 3.

Korean numbers for this are gonna be huge for GOTG2 though, they love MCU above all else Hollywood there.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Well I have already seen it once and will be going for at least one more viewing before it goes out of the cinema's. Loved this movie and hope it makes a boatload of money.

 

[Iceman]

It's doing so well in the UK!

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

It's doing so well in the UK!

Surprisingly my cinema showing was quite empty last night, not sure a lot of people here know it's out yet.

 

[Lilbaz]

Surprisingly my cinema showing was quite empty last night, not sure a lot of people here know it's out yet.

Bankholiday weekend. Even the pubs are a bit empty the following few days.

 

[xugik]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...ice-opening-summer-season-kickoff-1202084714/

 

[Raiden]

I never thought this would hit a billion and frankly it doesn't need to. I'm guessing around 900 million.

Its advance ticket sales outpaced AOU. I don't see why GOTG2 won't hit a billion.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...ice-opening-summer-season-kickoff-1202084714/

2nd Update, 10:48PM: With audience reactions. Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. is on track to gross $17M-$20M in preview cash tonight.

These forecasts are based off of east coast late night estimates made by rival studios, not Disney.

ComScore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak, which releases reports when it has polled a substantial number of moviegoers, already has enough respondents tonight and GOTG2 has logged a 90% positive score which is the same score as its first 2014 installment.

How did the audience change between sequels?

GOTG fans essentially got older. While the first one drew 33% men under 25, GOTG2 pulled in predominantly 32% men over 25 and 28% females over 25. Thirty-six percent of the crowd tonight attended with two-to-four friends.

On the high end, should GOTG2 hit $20M — which is possible, not certain — it will rank as the third-best Marvel preview after 2015’s Avengers: Age of Ultron ($27.6M) and last year’s Captain America: Civil War ($25M). Both pics’ Thursdays repped 33% of their Friday business, which means the James Gunn-directed GOTG2 has the potential to collect $60M+ on its first day. Civil War‘s first Friday grossed $75.5M, while Ultron chalked up $84.4M.

If GOTG2 lands above $15.6M (Iron Man 3‘s preview night, $68.9M Friday) and under $18.7M (Avengers, $80.8M) tonight, it will rank as the fourth-biggest preview night for a Marvel movie. All excellent starts for GOTG2, considering that the first movie posted a Thursday preview of $11.2M and opening day of $37.8M in August 2014 (30% of its opening day). GOTG went on to make $94.3M, the second-best debut in August after last year’s Suicide Squad ($133.7M).

Across America in 550 theaters tonight there’s a special RealD Guardians of the Galaxy double feature event with Vol. 2. Participating chains are AMC, Cinemark, Cineplex, National Amusements Regal Cinemas and B&B Theatres. 3D repped 52% of GOTG2‘s business tonight.

On Friday, GOTG2 blasts off at 4,347 theaters. Of those, 3,800-plus are 3D, 388 are in Imax (33% of all biz tonight) , 588 premium large-format locations (17% of all biz per PostTrak) and 194 D-Box locations. Overall, 47% watched GOTG2 in 2D.

Should GOTG2 post $17M in previews, it could take its three-day down to $125M-$130M. Again, that figure probably is going to jump around throughout the weekend, but it’s still a great start for a movie that cost $200M before P&A. Remember, GOTG2 already has banked $154M at the foreign B.O. There’s plenty of excellent buzz here: GOTG2 owns an 84% certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes score, 72% are recommending the pic to friends (vs. GOTG‘s 75%), 44% say the sequel exceeded their expectations (vs. GOTG‘s 32%) and there’s a fever pitch in advance ticket sales. While Fandango showed GOTG2 zipping past Ultron throughout the week in pre-sales, 80% of all tickets being sold on Movietickets.com belong to Star-Lord and friends.

Other interesting takeaways from tonight: 58% of the crowd bought tickets because they’re fans of the GOTG franchise, 53% came because they like Marvel movies, while 40% attended for the cast as a whole.

For those in the industry who think streaming is king and that PVOD will save the film business, PostTrak’s reports always prove them wrong: 30% of tonight’s audience at GOTG2 would like to see the sequel again, 31% want to buy it on Blu-Ray, and 20% want to own it on DVD — all double digit results which beat any form of streaming; that is owning or renting

.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Its advance ticket sales outpaced AOU. I don't see why GOTG2 won't hit a billion.

It'd take massive drops and lack of repeat visitors to not get close to that figure.

 

[Stark Bauer]

My prediction is $180 million opening weekend in North America

 

[iEquinox]

Heading for 125-130M domestic opening according to deadline. Still a big opening, but quite a bit lower than earlier reports. We'll have to wait for the friday numbers but it looks like the opening will come in lower than estimated.

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...ice-opening-summer-season-kickoff-1202084714/

 

[legendkillin]

My theater was packed. I loved the movie plan to see it again soon.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Heading for 125-130M domestic opening according to deadline. Still a big opening, but quite a bit lower than earlier reports. We'll have to wait for the friday numbers but it looks like the opening will come in lower than estimated.

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...ice-opening-summer-season-kickoff-1202084714/

Deadline's BO predictions always seem off. They weigh the Thursday preview numbers way too heavily when coming up with their final numbers, resulting in way too low or way too high predictions. Main one I saw pointed out was them saying Beauty and the Beast was barely going to go over $100 million due to their $16 million review number but actually ending up around $179 million.

 

[StormC]

Its advance ticket sales outpaced AOU. I don't see why GOTG2 won't hit a billion.

All that really means is the movie is frontloaded. CW had more advance tickets than AOU but came short of it by quite a bit.

Unless the international market gives the movie a huge boost, a 130M weekend bow will probably set the stage for a sub-400M domestic total, which would put it in line with 900M WW.

I always said that the stars would have to align to get this movie to a billion. Now people are gonna consider it a disappointment if it doesn't get that, for whatever reason.

 

[iEquinox]

Deadline's BO predictions always seem off. They weigh the Thursday preview numbers way too heavily when coming up with their final numbers, resulting in way too low or way too high predictions. Main one I saw pointed out was them saying Beauty and the Beast was barely going to go over $100 million due to their $16 million review number but actually ending up around $179 million.

BatB made 174.75M OW, not 179M. Do you have a link to the deadline article stating it was going to barely make 100M based on the previews? From what I can see, this is what deadline said about Beauty and the Beast after the 16M preview number just came in:

Disney’s Beauty And The Beast danced away with $16.3 million in Thursday previews. [...] This will likely push its opening weekend well past the $155M mark.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

All that really means is the movie is frontloaded. CW had more advance tickets than AOU but came short of it by quite a bit.

Unless the international market gives the movie a huge boost, a 130M weekend bow will probably set the stage for a sub-400M domestic total, which would put it in line with 900M WW.

I always said that the stars would have to align to get this movie to a billion. Now people are gonna consider it a disappointment if it doesn't get that, for whatever reason.

Only those who over predicted it. For those of us who didn't think 1 billion was possible, there is no disappointment in getting a prediction right.

 

[iEquinox]

Well, good news; deadline's prediction of 125-130M OW didn't last long, they're already upping that to 140M+.

It’s still early, but as of right now we’re hearing that Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 is flying between $53M-$60M today, which includes its $17M previews last night, pointing it toward a $140M+ opening. Last night’s ticket sales rep 30% of today’s business. Again, given the hot word of mouth here, these figures could jump higher tonight, and even higher tomorrow.

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...ice-opening-summer-season-kickoff-1202084714/

Kind of weird how since they said this: "[...] that means GOTG2 could mint between $55M–$60M, and a weekend opening between $125M-$130M." And now they're saying it'll do $53-$60M today, and that changed their OW prediction significantly, even though it's pretty much exactly what they were predicting before. No idea what logic they're using on that one xD

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Well, good news; deadline's prediction of 125-130M OW didn't last long, they're already upping that to 140M+.


http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...ice-opening-summer-season-kickoff-1202084714/

Kind of weird how since they said this: "[...] that means GOTG2 could mint between $55M–$60M, and a weekend opening between $125M-$130M." And now they're saying it'll do $53-$60M today, and that changed their OW prediction significantly, even though it's pretty much exactly what they were predicting before. No idea what logic they're using on that one xD

It's almost like they were trying to stick to their original predictions for as long as possible even though the initial numbers weren't supporting it.

 

[Ozbridge]

Looks like a lock to me, taking bets if anyone's interested...

I'd love to but I've been burnt before.

Well, good news; deadline's prediction of 125-130M OW didn't last long, they're already upping that to 140M+.


http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...ice-opening-summer-season-kickoff-1202084714/

Kind of weird how since they said this: "[...] that means GOTG2 could mint between $55M–$60M, and a weekend opening between $125M-$130M." And now they're saying it'll do $53-$60M today, and that changed their OW prediction significantly, even though it's pretty much exactly what they were predicting before. No idea what logic they're using on that one xD

Deadline sucks at prediction. Earlier this year they predicted 130-140M OW for BatB even after OD. No one at BOT takes them seriously.