Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[iEquinox]

The-numbers seems to be expecting an opening of about 150M, while boxofficemojo seems confident it can get 150M+ as well.

We predicted an opening weekend of $156 million and I’m relatively happy with figure after this result. That might end up a little to optimistic, but close enough to call it a victory.

http://www.the-numbers.com/news/221...s-Vol-2-has-a-Beautiful-Start-with-17-million

All that said, Disney is anticipating an opening around $150+ million for the weekend, though a few of those examples above prove it would't be surprising to see it go higher.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4289&p=.htm

Also, people shoulnd't put too much stock in the advance ticket sales. The amount of people buying tickets in advance is still increasing rapidly. Movies released now have a huge advantage over older movies, even one year makes a big difference. A good example of this is Age of Ultron, which had more tickets sold in advance than all previous MCU movies combined. Then 1 year later CW beats that number and still didn't get a bigger OW.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

They are thinking the previews are going to make up less then previous Marvel flicks. Interesting.

 

[StormC]

I'm not ruling out a billion, but if it does make it there it'll be mighty close. For sure the lowest billion dollar grosser in the franchise.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm not ruling out a billion, but if it does make it there it'll be mighty close. For sure the lowest billion dollar grosser in the franchise.

It would be the first without Tony.

 

[legendkillin]

It would be the first without Tony.

I think this is the only non Tony film with a chance. Thor 3 can be one of the best but I don't think he can do it. The second movie kind of hurt some people's view. Black Panther will be good but not get a billion.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I think if they ever do a proper Cap 4, it'll hit a billion. Cap's stock has risen enough to do that, granted the movie is the same caliber as the last 2 Cap films.

 

[Capsfan]

I highly doubt that Cap's movie would hit a billion without RDJ or Spidey.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...ice-opening-summer-season-kickoff-1202084714/

5th Update, Friday 5:31PM: Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 is slightly higher after late afternoon grosses with a potential $56M Friday and $142M-$150M weekend opening range. However, we’re not going to know until later tonight or even tomorrow if the sequel can top out at the high end of its range. While east coast evening shows have kicked in, the west has yet to get started.

 

[Kev4000]

I highly doubt that Cap's movie would hit a billion without RDJ or Spidey.

It could be in the near of that. Even F+F can handle that to date.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...ice-opening-summer-season-kickoff-1202084714/

6th Update, Friday 11:44 PM: It’s still too early in the weekend to call the opening of Disney/Marvel’s Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2. Projections have simmered from what we’ve seen earlier today with the James Gunn-directed movie currently logging $56 million (including $17M previews). This puts the Marvel sequel’s opening around $138.8M per industry estimates. Some distributors see GOTG2 over $140M, and by tomorrow morning, there’s a chance the film could bounce back to that level. Keep this in mind: 14 May releases have opened to more than $100M at the box office, and as of right now, GOTG2 ranks as the sixth best on that list after Avengers ($207.4M), Avengers: Age of Ultron ($191.2M), Captain America: Civil War ($179.1M), Iron Man 3 ($174.1M), and Spider-Man 3 ($151.1M) (all Marvel character movies).

At this late part of the day, what’s apparent is that GOTG2 is taking all the wind out of the box office. Today alone, the Marvel movie generated 85% of Friday’s business. Most films geared at adults are taking a tumble that’s close to -60% or more from last weekend. Sure, it’s not as though GOTG2 is competing against some fresh, four-quad piece of competition. F8 hardly has any air left in its tires, and most of the other movies in the top 10 are geared toward a specific demo (How to Be a Latin Lover), or older audience (Going in Style, Gifted). Baahubali 2, despite its great fanfare last weekend, is estimated to fall 69% no thanks to losing its Imax auditoriums to GOTG2. Even more so, Bollywood movies burn quickly at the B.O.

Tonight, GOTG2 received a solid A CinemaScore, the same as GOTG, and the 10th ‘A’ in the Kevin Feige-led Marvel cinematic universe. Before GOTG surprised everyone with a then record August opening of $94.3M, some of us in the media had our doubts about the property: Not only was it a lesser-known comic in the Marvel sphere, but its main protagonists included a green female alien, a tree and a raccoon. But Marvel always knew it had the goods: They announced the sequel at Comic-Con three years ago before the first movie even opened. That confidence continued to swell with Gunn also announcing before GOTG2 opened that he’s overseeing GOTG3 as writer and director.

In terms of social media chatter, RelishMix reports, “Convo for Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 is overwhelmingly positive and enthusiastic…And, more recent comments definitely contains spoilers from those who have sneaked into screenings. Fans are calling out Baby Groot, Drax and other characters by name — and the funny moments captured in the numerous clips shared across all social platforms. Also, fans are loving the soundtrack, and the film is gaining even more YouTube views from homemade soundtracks for Vol. 2. Those who have seen Vol. 2 say it’s funnier and more action-packed than the first one. Fans are tagging each other and asking who’s got the tickets already.”

As we saw last night, GOTG2 had a higher definite recommend among audiences than its first movie, 77% to 75%, while 46% of those polled by Screen Engine/ComScore’s PostTrak said it blew away their expectations (vs. GOTG‘s 32%).

RelishMix weighs GOTG2‘s social media universe at 669M+, which bests the 465M average for a superhero movie.

 

[Vincanws]

I'd love to but I've been burnt before.

Was that person for real? Trying to make a bet for $2k on Logan beating $700? t:

 

[Chesterfield]

I highly doubt that Cap's movie would hit a billion without RDJ or Spidey.

It would have made close to a billion at least. Winter Soldier made over $700 million.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Right nao I have GOTG Vol 2. at [355 Million (Dom) + 380 Million (OS-China) + 95 Million (China)] = 830 Million.

 

[Zero_Effect]

It would have made close to a billion at least. Winter Soldier made over $700 million.

Or it would of made around 700M.

 

[Spiderine]

Think this comes up just a tad bit short of that billion.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I'm thinking 142 Million OW and a multiplier of 2.5, which will take the domestic gross to 355 Million.

I am assuming (10-15)% increase in the foreign markets minus china. The first one made 345 Million so I think Vol.2 will do around 380 million. I have no idea how this part will play out, maybe it'll perform very well.

China is not looking very hot so I have it at 95 Million.

 

[NJCaliboy]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-guardians-galaxy-vol-2-launches-17m-thursday-1000470

Marvel and Disney's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 rocketed to $56.3 million Friday from 4,347 theaters for a weekend debut in the $140 million range at the North American box office, well ahead of the first film.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So a 136-141mil opening weekend. Of course that's a good number but Marvel sequels usually don't have very good legs. The only Marvel sequel that got above the 2.4 multiplier was Captain America Winter Soldier. The international nor domestic are pointing to a billion dollars unless it had some great legs and that is super tough for sequel. Now I personally don't see not making a billion as being a failure but I know others as will.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

So a 136-141mil opening weekend. Of course that's a good number but Marvel sequels usually don't have very good legs. The only Marvel sequel that got above the 2.4 multiplier was Captain America Winter Soldier. The international nor domestic are pointing to a billion dollars unless it had some great legs and that is super tough for sequel. Now I personally don't see not making a billion as being a failure but I know others as will.

Yup, the early May slot for MCU heavy hitters usually yields around 2.4x (Since Avengers).

IM3 - 2.35x,
AoU - 2.4x,
CW - 2.27x

I still think there's a chance that GOTG Vol 2. will be a little less frontloaded, so I went with a 2.5x multiplier.

 

[Tymminator]

Was that person for real? Trying to make a bet for $2k on Logan beating $700? t:

S/he was a total goofball and got themselves banned. I missed whatever drama happened, but enough was there to show they were clueless.

Back on subject, It does seem around 140ish +/- for this weekend, but next week I'm curious what the drops will be. I think it actually should be a good drop as I can't recall anything dropping next week to directly compete.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yup, the early May slot for MCU heavy hitters usually yields around 2.4x (Since Avengers).

IM3 - 2.35x,
AoU - 2.4x,
CW - 2.27x

I still think there's a chance that GOTG Vol 2. will be a little less frontloaded, so I went with a 2.5x multiplier.

I don't rule out 2.5 but I think that's going to be the best it does.

I don't know I just thought over the last month or so that people were over predicting Guardians of the Galaxy 2. You know all this it's a lock for 400mil domestic and a billion worldwide stuff. Those are not easy numbers to get and you can't willy-nilly say that they are. If they were more comicbook movies would be doing those numbers. It's not like it's some failure or something and I don't even know whether it's a disappointment because I think it might just be that people were over predicting it.

Anyway of course we have to wait for the weeks to come to see what the total will be but right now, it's not looking like this mini Avengers thing that people were hoping for.

 

[TheVileOne]

It's definitely not hitting $1 billion. Darth Skywalker your thoughts on this "failure?"

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I don't rule out 2.5 but I think that's going to be the best it does.

I don't know I just thought over the last month or so that people were over predicting Guardians of the Galaxy 2. You know all this it's a lock for 400mil domestic and a billion worldwide stuff. Those are not easy numbers to get and you can't willy-nilly say that they are. If they were more comicbook movies would be doing those numbers. It's not like it's some failure or something and I don't even know whether it's a disappointment because I think it might just be that people were over predicting it.

Anyway of course we have to wait for the weeks to come to see what the total will be but right now, it's not looking like this mini Avengers thing that people were hoping for.

I'm actually one of those folks who thought a Bllion WW will happen so yeah, this has been overpredicted by many. Still if Vol 2. does 140 million OW, it will see an increase of 47% over the first one. That's very good.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's definitely not hitting $1 billion. Darth Skywalker your thoughts on this "failure?"

Yeah it's not hitting a billion but the opening weekend domestically is very good I don't think that anyone sane can argue with that.

I want to say that smarter people than I over at the box office Theory forums have talked about the international box office and nobody sees it hitting a billion except a couple of really zealoty fans.

 

[TheVileOne]

The first Guardians of the Galaxy surpassed everyone's expectations, but it still came in well under a billion.

I think expecting this one to do it was way over-estimating it. That's why I selected $800-900 million instead.

Let's also remember, Chris Pratt is a star, but he's not a draw outside of say Marvel or Jurassic Park. Case in point, Passengers only made about $100 million here, and that's with Jennifer Lawrence in the billing too.