Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[jmc]

First cinema session where I was was about 90% filled today. It's a public holiday here today so that's not entirely unexpected. But the crowd seemed to like it.

 

[TalismanRing]

I voted $900m to 1b but I think there's chance it could do in the high $800ms.

My prediction - this will open around $140-50m and have about a 2.5 multi which is higher than avg for a MCU sequel. It's going to be far more front loaded than the first since it's a sequel and it's May not August.

It's going to grow O/S but in order for it to hit $600m it will have to rise about 50% over GOTG because the dollar is stronger than in 2014.

In point of comparison CW did $745m O/S, less than IM3 ($806m) and Avengers ($895m) - even though it did bigger business in local currency and would have made more than both O/S if it had the same exchange rates as in 2012 or 2013. (AOU would have topped Avengers WW with the same exchange rates)

2014's exchange rates were already down quite a bit from 2012 and 2013 so they difference won't be as big between GOTG and GOTG 2 but it's still significant.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Yeah....DeeJ is always talkin caca, but I voted 1B plus on this one too. The first one DID, however, WAAAAY over perform and I always felt this was one of those fairly rare cases where the sequel outdoes the original. The goodwill was so easy to see. I think some of us forget just how great of a run it had. Starting out at 90M+ (and the momentum was building) and ending up over 330M DOM is very, very unusual.

Hope all's well with you too.

That's exactly what I'm not forgetting. The 1st one had a very unusual run and that normally means the sequel does less.

The thing is, sequels usually do outdo the first film when there is obvious room to these days. Especially with how important big opening are these days. This isn't TLJ having to get to 2bil or the AoU trying to get to 1.5bil. 773m for a sequel to a beloved Marvel flick is rather easy to top.

You are assuming the ceiling is the same for every movie here. I think GotG hit its ceiling with the 1st one. I don't see the "obvious room" when GotG was such a huge surprise at the box office.

I voted $900m to 1b but I think there's chance it could do in the high $800ms.

My prediction - this will open around $140-50m and have about a 2.5 multi which is higher than avg for a MCU sequel. It's going to be far more front loaded than the first since it's a sequel and it's May not August.

It's going to grow O/S but in order for it to hit $600m it will have to rise about 50% over GOTG because the dollar is stronger than in 2014.

In point of comparison CW did $745m O/S, less than IM3 ($806m) and Avengers ($895m) - even though it did bigger business in local currency and would have made more than both O/S if it had the same exchange rates as in 2012 or 2013. (AOU would have topped Avengers WW with the same exchange rates)

2014's exchange rates were already down quite a bit from 2012 and 2013 so they difference won't be as big between GOTG and GOTG 2 but it's still significant.

Good points. Some need to tap the brakes with the 1 billion talk.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/he...axy-vol-2-could-rake-100m-overseas-bow-997194

The gang is back in theaters.

Director James Gunn's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 begins rolling out overseas on Tuesday, more than a week ahead of its debut in North America, where it kicks off the summer box office on May 5.

Tracking suggests the quirky superhero tentpole, from Disney and Marvel Studios, could approach or top $100 million from its first 58 foreign territories. Major markets include Australia, France, Germany, Brazil, the U.K. and Mexico.

When comparing previous Marvel debuts in the same suite of markets at today's exchange rates, 2013's Iron Man 3 debuted to $141.4 million, followed by $85.4 million for 2013's Thor: The Dark World and $64.6 million for the first Guardians of the Galaxy (2014).

In North America, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 is tracking to open in the $130 million-$150 million range, well ahead of the first film's $94.7 million launch in early August 2014. The movie was a surprise hit and went on to earn $733 million globally, a rousing number considering it featured a rag-tag group of lesser-known superheroes.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 will open in raft of other major territories next week, including North Korea (May 3), Russia (May 4) and China (May 5).

 

[-JKR-]

EDIT. Wrong topic.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

You are assuming the ceiling is the same for every movie here. I think GotG hit its ceiling with the 1st one. I don't see the "obvious room" when GotG was such a huge surprise at the box office.

The very nature of the opening proves it didn't hit the ceiling.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

What mistake? Did you even read what I wrote?

You are claiming GotG should gross over 1 billion. I don't think you are right about that.

The very nature of the opening proves it didn't hit the ceiling.

I think it's the opposite. I think it got a word of mouth boost while it was still in theaters and got its maximum possible audience. It also had a novelty factor it won't have this time.

We shall see soon enough which one of us is right.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

You are claiming GotG should gross over 1 billion. I don't think you are right about that.


I think it's the opposite. I think it got a word of mouth boost while it was still in theaters and got its maximum possible audience. It also had a novelty factor it won't have this time.

We shall see soon enough which one of us is right.

It should. Doesn't mean it will and that is dependent on the movie. You seem to be taking what I am saying what it should do and saying it is me saying what it will do. Is English not your first language?

That isn't how maximizing the possible audience works. Want a very easy example from Marvel to prove this?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=ironman3.htm

Iron Man had the WOM and the legs. Iron Man 3 made nearly 90m more. It is because it got more people to come out in bulk right off the bat.

 

[Silver Surfer]

guardians of the galaxy vol. 2 will open in raft of other major territories next week, including north korea (may 3), russia (may 4) and china (may 5).

Wtf???

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Probably the wrong Korea.

 

[Tony Stark]

So far BATB, and FF8 are the only billion dollar films of the year (not yet for FF8 but will inevitably pass it). I think Guardians will have a good shot but could fall short. The critical response so far has been overall good but not as good as the first film. Will that effect it? I don't know for sure. I think the international crowd will eat it up. It's the first big summer film right out of the gate, and I don't see any big competition perhaps until Alien Covenant, but really not until Pirates 5.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$6.6 million on day one in Italy, Australia and NZ.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/he...axy-vol-2-soars-66m-first-day-overseas-997700

 

[JeetKuneDo]

It should. Doesn't mean it will and that is dependent on the movie. You seem to be taking what I am saying what it should do and saying it is me saying what it will do. Is English not your first language?

That isn't how maximizing the possible audience works. Want a very easy example from Marvel to prove this?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=ironman3.htm

Iron Man had the WOM and the legs. Iron Man 3 made nearly 90m more. It is because it got more people to come out in bulk right off the bat.

Oooh....you are trying to set up a "ha ha...the movie sucked" scenario by trying to set up a "didn't meet expectations" thing!

Well that doesn't work either since many sequels that the fans liked more grossed less than the first entry.

We all know the "quality" of a movie doesn't have much to do with the gross. There are so many cases where there is no correlation there. You pointed to one right there....don't most of us think Iron Man 1 is better than Iron Man 3?...Yet IM3 made more. Don't most of us think Spider-Man 2 is better than Spider-Man 1?....yet SM2 made less.

A movie that vastly exceeded "expectations" with the first movie usually grosses less with the 2nd movie. GotG did way more than we thought it would. I say it hit the ceiling for a movie about a talking raccoon and a tree featuring a bunch of unknown characters.

Own your expectations. You are predicting 1 billion, I say it won't happen. I expect a bit less domestic and a bit more overseas. That's not going to be enough to go from 770m to 1 billion.

 

[Hammer!]

Count me among those who think it would be a slight disappointment if this thing doesn't do a Bill. $900 Mill at least for Disney to be happy.

 

[InCali]

Oooh....you are trying to set up a "ha ha...the movie sucked" scenario by trying to set up a "didn't meet expectations" thing!

Well that doesn't work either since many sequels that the fans liked more grossed less than the first entry.

We all know the "quality" of a movie doesn't have much to do with the gross. There are so many cases where there is no correlation there. You pointed to one right there....don't most of us think Iron Man 1 is better than Iron Man 3?...Yet IM3 made more. Don't most of us think Spider-Man 2 is better than Spider-Man 1?....yet SM2 made less.

A movie that vastly exceeded "expectations" with the first movie usually grosses less with the 2nd movie. GotG did way more than we thought it would. I say it hit the ceiling for a movie about a talking raccoon and a tree featuring a bunch of unknown characters.

Own your expectations. You are predicting 1 billion, I say it won't happen. I expect a bit less domestic and a bit more overseas. That's not going to be enough to go from 770m to 1 billion.

It's good to know we've got mind readers on the hype. That'll come in handy down the road. What scenario am I trying to set up? I'd be interested to know.

"the quality of a movie doesn't have much to do with the gross" (that's a quote)....ooooookaaaaayyyy.

I didn't get from Darth that he's predicting 1B, but, then, I don't have your mind reading talents.

My take is that there is a chance it could hit 1B, but it will depend on how well it's received. A 150M OW (which I've read it could easily hit) and a 2.2 multiplier (not great), puts it dead on course to hit 330M DOM. Might go higher might go lower.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Oooh....you are trying to set up a "ha ha...the movie sucked" scenario by trying to set up a "didn't meet expectations" thing!

Well that doesn't work either since many sequels that the fans liked more grossed less than the first entry.

We all know the "quality" of a movie doesn't have much to do with the gross. There are so many cases where there is no correlation there. You pointed to one right there....don't most of us think Iron Man 1 is better than Iron Man 3?...Yet IM3 made more. Don't most of us think Spider-Man 2 is better than Spider-Man 1?....yet SM2 made less.

A movie that vastly exceeded "expectations" with the first movie usually grosses less with the 2nd movie. GotG did way more than we thought it would. I say it hit the ceiling for a movie about a talking raccoon and a tree featuring a bunch of unknown characters.

Own your expectations. You are predicting 1 billion, I say it won't happen. I expect a bit less domestic and a bit more overseas. That's not going to be enough to go from 770m to 1 billion.

You figured it out. I hate Marvel and GotG. I totally want this too suck.

Comparing this to Spider-Man and Spider-Man 2 makes little to no sense because, the first Spider-Man was all time big movie when it came out. GotG was third the year it came out, and didn't even break 800m.

The tracking for the opening of this movie clearly indicates it is looking at an opening that would increase the first weekend take by 150%. So what you would need for this movie to open up that big and then not make it past the original domestic total are legs on par with the new Power Rangers movie. Is that what you expect? This film to have the legs of the new Power Rangers movie?

Marvel gave it the billion dollar date. The one that has got them to a billion 4 straight times with the Avengers, IM3, AoU and Civil War. We can talk about why they skipped it in 2014, but I don't think it was because they were scared of Spider-Man considering what the first TASM did.

It also seems early tracking is indicating an increase overseas, and not a small one. I don't know the value of all the overseas currencies at the moment. They very well may all be down in comparison to 2014. But we just had Doctor Strange do more overseas then the first GotG. GotG V2 is coming off an incredibly well liked first film, that while it did very well, did not break the bank.

The point of my original post is there seems to now be an attempt to dampen expectations in case this movie doesn't make it to a billion, much like BvS didn't. But Marvel didn't give it the billion dollar for no reason. Hell, they moved the movie to it. It has no competition.

 

[TheVileOne]

Something interesting for 2016 I've thought about. I know not all things are equal

But is it fair that Suicide Squad was greatly maligned and it still made over $300 million domestic and over $700 million worldwide. Meanwhile, Doctor Strange, highly praised, but made less domestically and worldwide than Suicide Squad. Doctor Strange is seen as a greater hit, but the budget for Doctor Strange was only reportedly $10 million lower.

Do reviews and online reception color the "Success/Failure" of a film too much? I wonder what everyone else thinks.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

It's good to know we've got mind readers on the hype. That'll come in handy down the road. What scenario am I trying to set up? I'd be interested to know.

"the quality of a movie doesn't have much to do with the gross" (that's a quote)....ooooookaaaaayyyy.

I didn't get from Darth that he's predicting 1B, but, then, I don't have your mind reading talents.

My take is that there is a chance it could hit 1B, but it will depend on how well it's received. A 150M OW (which I've read it could easily hit) and a 2.2 multiplier (not great), puts it dead on course to hit 330M DOM. Might go higher might go lower.

I don't think 1 billion is realistic and that's because I think the first movie hit the ceiling. I don't think it's going to get that close. We'll find out who's right. You have your prediction and I have mine.

And of course there is no correlation between quality and box office. Box office is all over the place. Sometimes well liked movies make less than less liked movies and sometimes they make more. This is not news to you I hope?

You figured it out. I hate Marvel and GotG. I totally want this too suck.

Comparing this to Spider-Man and Spider-Man 2 makes little to no sense because, the first Spider-Man was all time big movie when it came out. GotG was third the year it came out, and didn't even break 800m.

The tracking for the opening of this movie clearly indicates it is looking at an opening that would increase the first weekend take by 150%. So what you would need for this movie to open up that big and then not make it past the original domestic total are legs on par with the new Power Rangers movie. Is that what you expect? This film to have the legs of the new Power Rangers movie?

Marvel gave it the billion dollar date. The one that has got them to a billion 4 straight times with the Avengers, IM3, AoU and Civil War. We can talk about why they skipped it in 2014, but I don't think it was because they were scared of Spider-Man considering what the first TASM did.

It also seems early tracking is indicating an increase overseas, and not a small one. I don't know the value of all the overseas currencies at the moment. They very well may all be down in comparison to 2014. But we just had Doctor Strange do more overseas then the first GotG. GotG V2 is coming off an incredibly well liked first film, that while it did very well, did not break the bank.

The point of my original post is there seems to now be an attempt to dampen expectations in case this movie doesn't make it to a billion, much like BvS didn't. But Marvel didn't give it the billion dollar for no reason. Hell, they moved the movie to it. It has no competition.

Every franchise has its ceiling. You are pretending GotG should be considered to be in the same league as Spider-Man. I don't agree with that. I think GotG is a lower tier and hit its ceiling with the first one. A breakout hit is not the same number for every franchise.

I predict a lower domestic total. The novelty factor isn't going to be there this time and that matters. I'll go ahead and predict the next Deadpool movie will make less than the first....same situation.

Like I said, we will soon find out who is right. I don't think I'll need to come up with excuses and "blame the movie" either.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't think 1 billion is realistic and that's because I think the first movie hit the ceiling. I don't think it's going to get that close. We'll find out who's right. You have your prediction and I have mine.

And of course there is no correlation between quality and box office. Box office is all over the place. Sometimes well liked movies make less than less liked movies and sometimes they make more. This is not news to you I hope?


Every franchise has its ceiling. You are pretending GotG should be considered to be in the same league as Spider-Man. I don't agree with that. I think GotG is a lower tier and hit its ceiling with the first one. A breakout hit is not the same number for every franchise.

I predict a lower domestic total. The novelty factor isn't going to be there this time and that matters. I'll go ahead and predict the next Deadpool movie will make less than the first....same situation.

Like I said, we will soon find out who is right. I don't think I'll need to come up with excuses and "blame the movie" either.

Using this argument, how did Iron Man ever make more money then Spider-Man? This isn't simply a GotG movie, it is a Marvel movie.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Using this argument, how did Iron Man ever make more money then Spider-Man? This isn't simply a GotG movie, it is a Marvel movie.

I understand you have your prediction just like I have mine. And we will find out who is right shortly. We can talk all day, but one of us is going to be right and one will be wrong.

 

[Tony Stark]

to get to 1B it's gotta make roughly 250M more than the original. I think domestically it can make 400M. I'm reluctant to say it can make more than CW did last year, but perhaps so, but I really think the international numbers are going to be where this movie will break 1B or not. So internationally it's got to pickup 150M more than the original. I think that's doable. But 400 Dom 600 WW, will probably be around what the numbers look like if it can break the billion mark.

I'm concerned that even the positive reviews seem to be saying "good, but not as good as the first", might be a setback to breaking 1B, but that doesn't always matter. Look at POTC Dead Man's Chest.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I understand you have your prediction just like I have mine. And we will find out who is right shortly. We can talk all day, but one of us is going to be right and one will be wrong.

I am not predicting. All nuance is flying right over your head here.

 

[InCali]

I am not predicting. All nuance is flying right over your head here.

I think it's important that you repeat yourself over and over and over again.....why are you making it so hard to understand what you're saying.

 

[Panacea]

I don't think 1 billion is realistic and that's because I think the first movie hit the ceiling.

Why would anyone think that the first movie, which was hamstrung by being unknown, hit the box office ceiling for the franchise? Aside from Avengers, which was a cinematic event in it's own right, every MCU sequel has made more money than it's predecessor.

 

[samsnee]

I don't think this will hit a billion. It will do better than the last one but so far the reviews, while not horrible, aren't stellar. Not that you need great reviews to hit a billion, but I still think it will fall just short.