Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[HammerDown]

So i am guessing it will be over the 600M WW mark on Monday next week.
Taking into account the remaining days in this week plus the big second weekend. It will be on track to my 1B prediction.

Domestic / 370M + Foreign / 630M = 1B

By the way it now sits at 453M WW.

 

[superion]

So i am guessing it will be over the 600M WW mark on Monday next week.
Taking into account the remaining days in this week plus the big second weekend. It will be on track to my 1B prediction.

Domestic / 370M + Foreign / 630M = 1B

By the way it now sits at 453M WW.

It's not making $630 million foreign so it's gong to miss $1 billion. I thought it would get to $400 million domestic but it seems like it will miss that as well.

 

[TheVileOne]

The first movie made $440 million overseas. $630 million foreign might be a little too optimistic and $370 million domestic the same.

We'll see how far it drops after this weekend.

 

[kguillou]

Yep May is basically Marvel except we didn't have one in 2014. I see MCU movies as events. Going back to Avengers 1 I have made it a mission to see MCU movies on Thursday release.

Oh s*** you're right, Winter Soldier came out in April that year! ASM 2 took the May spot....and wasted it. lol

 

[Erzengel]

It was TASM2 that came out in May that year.

 

[metaphysician]

This things going to kick ass til Alien Covenant I believe. it will have legs.

Going by early reviews, it'll probably still kick ass when Alien Covenant arrives, too. . .

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

7,53 m on Wednesday. Crossed 500 m worldwide.

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/23982-wednesday-numbers-gotg274m-forbes-crossed-500m-ww/

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Good news. It's rolling right along.

Weekend picture looks bright, at least regarding the competition: the King Arthur flick appears to be sinking like a rock. Now poised for a mere $25 million OW.

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/b...hed-guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-1202422437/

 

[Tony Stark]

If this has a 55% drop or less then this is getting to 370, plain and simple. In fact it has a good shot at 390 at those levels. The two key movies to watch this against is to see how far ahead it runs of Iron Man 1 and how far behind Iron Man 3.

Iron Man 1 and Avengers are the two highest multipliers for May, and what do they both have in common?

Iron Man wk 2 opening movies: Speed Racer, What Happens in Vegas

Avengers wk 2 opening movies: Dark Shadows, Girl in Progress


Every other Marvel May release maybe didn't go up against a flop but still had a strong competitor, including last year when Jungle Book in it's 5th week made almost as much as Speed Racer did in it's opening week

Even with a 60ish drop this weekend the lowest this does is 2.4

 

[Tony Stark]

Good news. It's rolling right along.

Weekend picture looks bright, at least regarding the competition: the King Arthur flick appears to be sinking like a rock. Now poised for a mere $25 million OW.

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/b...hed-guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-1202422437/

I really don't even see a 25M opening, unless there's alot of walkup buisness.

I checked 3 of the largest theaters in my region, all of which have assigned seating and pre-ticket sales show almost totally open theaters for tonight's preview showings and for Friday showings from 7pm -10pm.

I think it will be sub 20's and Snatched will probably get the no 2 slot for the week, as it will appeal to women and people wanting to see a comedy.

 

[HammerDown]

Well it's going even better than i anticipated...
Domestically it's 50M ahead of the first GOTG in the same amount of days.

Domestic: 175.9M
Foreign: 325.8M
WW: 501.7M

And now for sure it's going to be over 600M on Monday. Maybe even 650M.

 

[Iceman]

Still picking up dollars at a good pace

 

[kguillou]

If it wasnt for Alien and Pirates i think this would have easily clenched 1 Billion. Im guessin this finishes at 850-900 which is still amazing.

 

[Erzengel]

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if GOTG2 is still top of the box office for 3 weeks when Alien comes out.

I think any movie being released in the last week of May would top a movie released in the first week of May.

 

[InCali]

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if GOTG2 is still top of the box office for 3 weeks when Alien comes out.

I think any movie being released in the last week of May would top a movie released in the first week of May.

Aliens will draw off some of the older viewers, but, honestly, I saw the previews and was not very impressed. I really liked Prometheus, but have my doubts about this one. Still, I'll probably check it out. It's at 75% now so I could easily see it hitting the 60s.

Time will tell.

 

[InCali]

If it wasnt for Alien and Pirates i think this would have easily clenched 1 Billion. Im guessin this finishes at 850-900 which is still amazing.

Competition is part of any movie's BO#. I wouldn't be surprised if PotC is a real stinker. I have no desire to see it whatsoever, but I'm sure others will (the first week anyway ).

 

[legendkillin]

Competition is part of any movie's BO#. I wouldn't be surprised if PotC is a real stinker. I have no desire to see it whatsoever, but I'm sure others will (the first week anyway ).

Yeah I don't care to see Pirates or Aliens Covenant honestly. I didn't see the fourth PotC and I have only seen Alien,Aliens, and barely remember Prometheus.

 

[InCali]

Yeah I don't care to see Pirates or Aliens Covenant honestly. I didn't see the fourth PotC and I have only seen Alien,Aliens, and barely remember Prometheus.

Those first 2 were really good. I don't have anything against the franchise, but the preview/trailers for Covenant didn't seem very interesting to me.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I'm just not sure who was crying out for another Aliens or PotC movie. I liked the first couple in each franchise but at this point I've mostly lost interest. That said, early word on PotC was surprisingly good while the reviews for Covenant seem rather meh. If either breaks out I'd bet on Jack Sparrow.

 

[Erzengel]

The last 3 Pirates movies averaged $1B each (AWE was $963M) and the last 2 Transformers movies averaged over $1B. There appears to be more of a foreign demand for them as their domestics have dropped into the 200Ms. I'd add F&F to it, if not for the them actually getting good reviews.

 

[Tony Stark]

I think Alien Covenant will probably be no 1, I haven't seen where it's tracking but if it falls below 40M in tracking that's when it's in trouble so if Guardians comes out on the high side this weekend, anything north of 63M, then it will be interesting to see.

Guardians doesn't really need to open no. 1 it just needs to hold under 50% for the 3rd week, which I think it should regardless of the number this week.

Alien Covenant was kind of doomed from the start. There was a lot of good will going into Prometheus, but when people saw how underwhelming that film was, there's really no coming back from that, especially after a 5 year gap.

 

[Darkraid]

I think Alien Covenant will probably be no 1, I haven't seen where it's tracking but if it falls below 40M in tracking that's when it's in trouble so if Guardians comes out on the high side this weekend, anything north of 63M, then it will be interesting to see.

Guardians doesn't really need to open no. 1 it just needs to hold under 50% for the 3rd week, which I think it should regardless of the number this week.

Alien Covenant was kind of doomed from the start. There was a lot of good will going into Prometheus, but when people saw how underwhelming that film was, there's really no coming back from that, especially after a 5 year gap.

I doubt Alien would beat Guardians. I nearly fell asleep watching the movie. Heck, LIFE was a better Alien movie than Alien.

 

[Tony Stark]

I doubt Alien would beat Guardians. I nearly fell asleep watching the movie. Heck, LIFE was a better Alien movie than Alien.

Now that I'm looking at the tracking from Box office pro, Guardians will have a good shot to stay at no. 1. Current Tracking shows Alien Covenant at a 35M opening. Providing Guardians comes in under -55% this weekend, it will be neck and neck with AC. If there's a -50% drop then Guardians will come in no. 1 for 3 weeks, tying the 2nd place record for weeks at no. 1 for a MCU film. The first Guardians was at no. 1 for 4 weeks but had a bit of an odd patch to get that record. It was no 1 opening week, then fell to no. 2 for two weeks wile the first Ninja Turtles took over then reclaimed the top spot for 3 weeks. Of course that's the difference between May and August.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$7 million yesterday, so about $183 million domestic going into the weekend.

 

[Tony Stark]

BoM is predicting 68M for the weekend, that's only about 4M less than CW made in it's second week last year, and they're still predicting 25M for Kink Arthur and 20M for Snatched. If either of those films tail off, that could possibly books sales for Guardians.