Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

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It's pointless to set these benchmarks anyways if we have to start considering yearly exchange rates. The rules change every year, like the original would have made 84 million less OS had it been released in '17. It's all so random and kinda silly to obsess over.
 
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I just want it to surpass $330 million domestic and $873 million worldwide ;)

I think people predicting $1 billion for Guardians were definitely over-estimating it. I think those early test screening reports poisoned the box office prediction well. What pushed Civil War over $1 billion was the presence of Iron Man and the other Avengers.

However, I think this gives Marvel safely another feather in its cap since the movie was well liked and still generally got good reviews.

Now let me think real hard.....what movie was it that made 873M WW? :cwink:
 
I just want it to surpass $330 million domestic and $873 million worldwide ;)

I think people predicting $1 billion for Guardians were definitely over-estimating it. I think those early test screening reports poisoned the box office prediction well. What pushed Civil War over $1 billion was the presence of Iron Man and the other Avengers.

However, I think this gives Marvel safely another feather in its cap since the movie was well liked and still generally got good reviews.

It's pointless to set these benchmarks anyways if we have to start considering yearly exchange rates. The rules change every year, like the original would have made 84 million less OS had it been released in '17. It's all so random and kinda silly to obsess over.

So this one would have made +84M if the exchange rates were the same as they were back then (since it appears it will draw more, it would be an equal percentage above 84M that the total adjusted grosses would be).

I think adjusting for general inflation is a silly measure, but I'm not sure adjusting for currency exchange falls quite in the same category because the cost of the ticket itself isn't affected by that....at least I don't think it is. I'm still thinking this one over.....
 
So this one would have made +84M if the exchange rates were the same as they were back then (since it appears it will draw more, it would be an equal percentage above 84M that the total adjusted grosses would be).

I think adjusting for general inflation is a silly measure, but I'm not sure adjusting for currency exchange falls quite in the same category because the cost of the ticket itself isn't affected by that....at least I don't think it is. I'm still thinking this one over.....

I think this would be a good example:

Let's say a chinese movie made 2B chinese yuan in april 2013.
Back then, that was $308M australian dollars, or $322M american dollars.

What if a sequel to that movie came out on december 2016, and it also made 2B chinese yuan(leaving inflation out, so it sold exactly the same amount of tickets)? The exchange rates changed quite a lot since the 1st movie:

If you express it in australian dollars, it made $396M australian dollars.
But if you express it in american dollars, it made $288M american dollars.

So someone in australia would probably think it was much more succesful (it made $88M more right?), while someone in the US would probably think it actually did slightly worse than the original (it made $34M less after all!).

Therefore: if the exchange rates change significantly between movies, comparing foreign box office numbers directly is like comparing apples and oranges.
If you don't know how the exchange rates changed, you don't actually know if a movie drew a bigger audience or not, as the example shows.

From a US studio's point of view, they will make less money OS now, so the studio will make less profit. But that doesn't necessarily mean the movie was less succesful overseas. It just depends on how you define if a movie was more succesful. Is it more succesful if it makes the studio more money, or is it more succesful if more people actually go and see the movie?
 
Actuals went up, Deadline now predicting 65M for Guardians. Lowest 2nd week drop for a Marvel sequel, yep even lower than Winter Soldier. The studio hasn't listed the official numbers yet, but this is landing exactly where I thought it was.

OK, I'm going to say it, this will reach 1B, it might barely make it, but Disney will fudge it if it has to. And I think there's a good shot at 3 weeks at no. 1.
 
Actuals went up, Deadline now predicting 65M for Guardians. Lowest 2nd week drop for a Marvel sequel, yep even lower than Winter Soldier. The studio hasn't listed the official numbers yet, but this is landing exactly where I thought it was.

OK, I'm going to say it, this will reach 1B, it might barely make it, but Disney will fudge it if it has to. And I think there's a good shot at 3 weeks at no. 1.

Do you have any reasoning behind it reaching 1B? Even if it gets to $400M domestically (which is already very optimistic), it would still need $600M OS. It's on $384M OS, which includes $52M OS this weekend, and it has no markets left to open in. Do you really think it can get a 4.15x multiplier on this weekend, more than 2 or 3 weeks after opening(depending on the country)?

FYI, Doctor Strange made 60M 2 or 3 weeks into it's OS run, and it made 85M in those markets after that weekend. So GotG2 would need significantly better legs than DS from now on to even make it to 480M OS (460M is more likely). I think the chances of reaching $600M OS are about as low as te chances of reaching $500M DOM.

TLDR: $1B is not happening.
 
I think this would be a good example:

Let's say a chinese movie made 2B chinese yuan in april 2013.
Back then, that was $308M australian dollars, or $322M american dollars.

What if a sequel to that movie came out on december 2016, and it also made 2B chinese yuan(leaving inflation out, so it sold exactly the same amount of tickets)? The exchange rates changed quite a lot since the 1st movie:

If you express it in australian dollars, it made $396M australian dollars.
But if you express it in american dollars, it made $288M american dollars.

So someone in australia would probably think it was much more succesful (it made $88M more right?), while someone in the US would probably think it actually did slightly worse than the original (it made $34M less after all!).

Therefore: if the exchange rates change significantly between movies, comparing foreign box office numbers directly is like comparing apples and oranges.
If you don't know how the exchange rates changed, you don't actually know if a movie drew a bigger audience or not, as the example shows.

From a US studio's point of view, they will make less money OS now, so the studio will make less profit. But that doesn't necessarily mean the movie was less succesful overseas. It just depends on how you define if a movie was more succesful. Is it more succesful if it makes the studio more money, or is it more succesful if more people actually go and see the movie?

I totally agree. I haven't really thought it through, but it seems like a much better adjustment than overall inflation (which I've always thought of as a very blunt instrument that shouldn't really be used).

Part of what I was saying was a 20% decrease, that doesn't equal a 20% increase from the perspective of the other currency.

Ex: A 20% decrease from 100% is 80%. A 20% increase from 80% is 96%. A 25% increase of 80% is 100%.

Percentage increase or decrease to get to an absolute number depends on which perspective you are looking at it from.
 
$65,263,492 this weekend.

That's a 55.5% drop, which is the lowest drop for an MCU sequel (previous best was 56.6% by TWS). It was helped a bit by Mother's Day, it only dropped 25% on sunday, compared to the usual 32-35%. But it also got the highest friday to saturday bump for any MCU movie in the 2nd weekend (69%, which beats Thor's 66%).
 
$65,263,492 this weekend.

That's a 55.5% drop, which is the lowest drop for an MCU sequel (previous best was 56.6% by TWS). It was helped a bit by Mother's Day, it only dropped 25% on sunday, compared to the usual 32-35%. But it also got the highest friday to saturday bump for any MCU movie in the 2nd weekend (69%, which beats Thor's 66%).

It got 4 XD tickets from us this Sunday. Everyone liked it. My daughter is 20 and son almost 22, so we don't do a lot of movie dates all together anymore. That was a nice aspect of Mother's Day. It also got me for an IMAX ticket so I'm glad to have pitched in.

My daughter loved Baby Groot and was very upset when he got
picked on
. LOL. She never saw the first one, but wants to now.......and, of course, I have the BluRay.
 
If this has TWS's legs (which seems unlikely, but I suppose you never know), it will be pushing 400M. I'm thinking it'll end up in the neighborhood of 375M or so.
 
The drop for GotG V2 this week is dead similar to the first film. Only .2% off. That won't hold for the whole run, but if this keeps up for a bit, it is going to get to 400m domestically.
 
That is a very nice 2nd weekend drop. Doesn't seem like word of mouth is too bad.
 
I totally agree. I haven't really thought it through, but it seems like a much better adjustment than overall inflation (which I've always thought of as a very blunt instrument that shouldn't really be used).

Part of what I was saying was a 20% decrease, that doesn't equal a 20% increase from the perspective of the other currency.

Ex: A 20% decrease from 100% is 80%. A 20% increase from 80% is 96%. A 25% increase of 80% is 100%.

Percentage increase or decrease to get to an absolute number depends on which perspective you are looking at it from.
Yeah, inflation adjustment for box office is pretty much only used to adjust domestic numbers(to adjust accurately WW you would have to adjust for every single market seperately, which would be a lot of work), and it just multiplies tickets sold with the average ticket price. So it's not always completely accurate, since one movie will for example sell more 3D tickets, and have a higher average ticket price than another movie released in the same month.

Exchange rates on the other hand are well documented hard numbers. You don't have to use assupmtions(like every movie having the same average ticket price) to adjust for exchange rates.

If this has TWS's legs (which seems unlikely, but I suppose you never know), it will be pushing 400M. I'm thinking it'll end up in the neighborhood of 375M or so.
Yeah, 400M is not completely off the table just yet, but it seems very unlikely. TWS only dropped 38% on its 3rd weekend (thanks to easter), and 37% on its 4th weekend(very impressive since previous weekend was easter weekend).

GotG2 had help of mother's day this weekend, so sunday to sunday drop next weekend will be bigger, and it also has more competition than TWS on the 4th weekend from PotC, followed by WW on the 5th (and a little next weekend by Alien). TWS barely had any competition until the 5th weekend.
 
Is Mother's Day really a day people go to the movies? I mean, it's the day when most people go out to dinner. I would have thought that Mother's Day the numbers would have gone down.
 
Is Mother's Day really a day people go to the movies? I mean, it's the day when most people go out to dinner. I would have thought that Mother's Day the numbers would have gone down.

Its a lot like Christmas where the eating and unwrapping are done by the afternoon and people are looking for stuff to do.
 
Is Mother's Day really a day people go to the movies? I mean, it's the day when most people go out to dinner. I would have thought that Mother's Day the numbers would have gone down.

It helps for some movies; mainly female friendly movies and family friendly movies. It won't help movies that aren't family friendly or female oriented (Logan, which is (as you probably know) an R-rated movie with a mainly male audience, dropped 48% on sunday).

Notice how Snatched (a comedy starring amy schumer and goldie hawn) had a 24% increase on sunday, instead of a drop. "How to be a Latin Lover" increased by 23% on sunday, and beauty and the beast only dropped 3%. It seems like GotG2 is attracting more families than the average MCU movie, judging by the small thursday-friday bump, the big friday-saturday bump and the small drop on mother's day.
 
^This is not correct. Mothers is usually a drop off for films. Typically Marvel films fall about 30% or worse on Mothers day. So no there was not a boost of this film because of mothers day, there was a boost because this movie is going to have at least a 2.7 multiplier or better.

Marvel Mother's Day Sunday drops:

GOTGv2: -25.1%
Iron man 1: -30.1%
Iron Man 2: -36.9%
Thor: -31.5%
Avengers: -27.9%
Iron Man 3: -35.2%
Avengers AoU: -33%
CA Civil War: -34.1%

Non - marvel mothers day drops:

Star Trek: -29%
TASM2: - 35.2%


Clearly by the statistical data, GOTGv2 didn't just buck the Mother's day trend it pretty solidly crushed it.
 
If this has TWS's legs (which seems unlikely, but I suppose you never know), it will be pushing 400M. I'm thinking it'll end up in the neighborhood of 375M or so.

Right now it's performing same or slightly better. The only thing standing in it's way is POTC 5, and that's over Memorial day where it will get a nice little bump.
 
So, who here thinks Guardians has a shot of staying at #1 and beating Alien: Covenant this weekend?
 
^This is not correct. Mothers is usually a drop off for films. Typically Marvel films fall about 30% or worse on Mothers day. So no there was not a boost of this film because of mothers day, there was a boost because this movie is going to have at least a 2.7 multiplier or better.

Marvel Mother's Day Sunday drops:

GOTGv2: -25.1%
Iron man 1: -30.1%
Iron Man 2: -36.9%
Thor: -31.5%
Avengers: -27.9%
Iron Man 3: -35.2%
Avengers AoU: -33%
CA Civil War: -34.1%

Non - marvel mothers day drops:

Star Trek: -29%
TASM2: - 35.2%


Clearly by the statistical data, GOTGv2 didn't just buck the Mother's day trend it pretty solidly crushed it.

So you have it finishing around 400M. That would be a spectacular run for a bunch of a-holes who were complete unknowns 3 years ago.

This is the time where coming week's trend will help us start to home in on narrowing ranges of the BO run totals. Right now, I'd put it between 350 and 400M.
 
So, who here thinks Guardians has a shot of staying at #1 and beating Alien: Covenant this weekend?

I think it will be difficult, but it is an R rated movie so it will mainly be seen by a fairly small segment. The other 2 releases sort of cover the demographic spectrum, so I could see a fairly substantial drop for Vol2. Hope I'm wrong.
 
Right now it's performing same or slightly better. The only thing standing in it's way is POTC 5, and that's over Memorial day where it will get a nice little bump.

Funny you mention Pirates 5, because apparently right now, hackers have stolen it and unless Disney can stop it with the FBI's help before it's too late (which I hope they can), it may be another Memorial Day bomb for Disney: http://deadline.com/2017/05/pirates...l-no-tales-hackers-ransom-1202094203/#respond
https://www.forbes.com/sites/insert...ual-pirates-now-demanding-ransom-from-disney/
 
Do you have any reasoning behind it reaching 1B? Even if it gets to $400M domestically (which is already very optimistic), it would still need $600M OS. It's on $384M OS, which includes $52M OS this weekend, and it has no markets left to open in. Do you really think it can get a 4.15x multiplier on this weekend, more than 2 or 3 weeks after opening(depending on the country)?

FYI, Doctor Strange made 60M 2 or 3 weeks into it's OS run, and it made 85M in those markets after that weekend. So GotG2 would need significantly better legs than DS from now on to even make it to 480M OS (460M is more likely). I think the chances of reaching $600M OS are about as low as te chances of reaching $500M DOM.

TLDR: $1B is not happening.


400M is not optimistic, it's where it's currently performing 390-400 range. The box office gurus have been wrong two weeks in a row based on Friday numbers, they underestimated the legs it had over the weekend. Adding to this is the weakest May films we've seen since Avengers in 2012.

900M is already a lock. I have no idea how you are compiling those numbers to Doctor Strange which had worse legs than the first Guardians even though it opened to 21M higher in foreign markets. It only has to keep pace with the first one in foreign markets and it will be close. Anything close and the studio will fudge the numbers to get it over the hump.
 
So you have it finishing around 400M. That would be a spectacular run for a bunch of a-holes who were complete unknowns 3 years ago.

This is the time where coming week's trend will help us start to home in on narrowing ranges of the BO run totals. Right now, I'd put it between 350 and 400M.


I think it's got a legit chance at 400M. The box office reporting sites are stumped two weeks in a row because the internals are not performing like a typical Marvel film. The Fridays are lower, but Saturday-Sunday it performs like a beast.

I had the drop at -55% going into the weekend and it fell right there and I said on Friday after the initial numbers came in that it would probably go up, and it did. There were a few people on the box office forums that called this right, and they're seeing the trends. This is performing more like a Disney family movie than a typical Marvel film, where the teenagers rush the theater on Friday and then demand drops off.
 
Funny you mention Pirates 5, because apparently right now, hackers have stolen it and unless Disney can stop it with the FBI's help before it's too late (which I hope they can), it may be another Memorial Day bomb for Disney: http://deadline.com/2017/05/pirates...l-no-tales-hackers-ransom-1202094203/#respond
https://www.forbes.com/sites/insert...ual-pirates-now-demanding-ransom-from-disney/

Wow that's bad. I remember that happened with X-men Wolverine and it definitely effected the gross.

Kind of ironic pirating a pirate movie! lol!
 
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