Um somehow you and I are communicating but something is lost in translation. I never said GOTGv2 was negatively effected by mother's day. I said that normally mother's day has a negative effect on films but GOTG bucked the trend. GOTGv2 has the best legs for a marvel sequel so far, and only trails Avengers and IM1 for the legs it currently has.
Ah okay, when you said "You said Mother's day helped [GotG2]. It did not, films have higher drops on Mother's day." and I thought you meant GotG2 also had a higher drop on Mother's Day. But yeah it may have had only a small effect. Enough to negate the usual bigger drop, but not enough to make the drop significantly smaller than it would have been if this was a normal sunday. Don't think we'll be able to tell, at least not until next sunday.
And no we didn't establish GOGTv1 is a horrible comparison and no you didn't establish that Doctor Strange is a good comparison.
For OS numbers, comparing weekend numbers for GotG2 to the OS weekend numbers for GotG1 is pointless. GotG1 obviously had a much bigger portion of it's OS total left in the tank at this point, because it still had a big percentage of markets left where it didn't open(Markets where it easily made 100M+ total).
GotG 1 made 33M on it's 3rd weekend OS. It then also made over 30M OS on it's 12th weekend, because that's when it opened in china.
GotG 2 made 52M on it's 3rd weekend OS. It's not getting anywhere near 50M on it's 12th weekend, because it has no markets left to open in. I would be pleasantly suprised if it even made 1M on it's 12th international weekend.
Comparing the 33M to 52M weekends is comparing apples and oranges. Surely you see why comparing OS numbers directly for these two movies is a bad comparison?
Doctor Strange on the other hand, had a much more similar release schedule, and therefore is a much better comparison. I fail to see how this is not obvious.
It's got a good chance to be the no 1 movie 3 weeks in a row, or even if it falls to 2nd it will be close. In fact it's entirely possible that the estimates will show Alien Covenant to be no. 1 and then GOTGv2 comes in with higher actuals.
Again, I don't know why you keep going back to Doctor Strange. GOTGv1 made nearly as much internationally as DS, V2 is going to do better than both, we both can agree on that. BTW, 530M mean 900M WW which you said you doubted would happen.
900M is pretty much in the bag, barring some huge drop off. 1B is a chance but it has to keep performing well.
I'm not sure where you live, but in the US Memorial Day weekend will boost GOTGv2 and it will gross somewhere around 20M for the holiday weekend. It's only 47M behind Civil War, but GOTGv2 clearly has better legs. In fact this weekend it will have a chance to be equal or above what Civil War was for it's 3rd weekend.
Wonder Woman isn't going to make a difference one way or another. GOTGv2 will have made the majority of it's money by that point. I don't know why you'd even bring it up.
You're mostly talking about domestic performance in this post. My previous post was all about the OS performance, which is very different. And yeah, 530M would mean 900M WW, and I explained in my last post why 530M is extremely unlikely; it would need twice the multiplier DS had from this point forward, in other words: not happening.
Let's put the "twice the multiplier DS had" part into context by comparing to domestic gross. DS made 232,641,920 total, and was on 152,952,234 after the 2nd weekend. If GotG2 had twice as strong legs from this point forward domestically, it would end with 507M+ DOM. Surely you agree this is not happening? Hope this puts into perspective how unlikely 530M OS is, nevermind 600M OS. You haven't given any decent comparisons that suggest 600M OS is even remotely possible. Would love to see one if it exists.. pretty sure it doesn't.
