Idk.
Dumbo has Eva Greene, Colin Farrell, Michael Keaton, and Danny Devito. And its directed by Burton whom a lot of filmgoers like.
Aladdin has Will Smith playing a ****ty cgi Genie, and a bunch of unknown, unproven non-white actors. Oh and its directed by Guy Richie whom the average film goer doesnt know or care about. At best the average film goer knows or will hear that the director of Aladdin also directed that terrible King Arthur film.
I think Will Smith will get butts in seats opening weekend, but I expect it will drop like a rock in week 2 and beyond if it's another King Arthur dumpster fire. With Dumbo I can see it having a modest opening weekend, and with good word of mouth steadily accruing a nice box office.