The irony is they are in part responsible for the existing setup.
They are responsible for starting two great blockbusters that set a precedent of how great they can be. The effect is out of their hands.
I think that Lucas and the 'Berg have a point about some sort of catalyst being in the near-future. It will revolve around escalating costs, both for development and ticket sales, but it's harder to pinpoint what that catalyst will ultimately be. I think Steven is on the right track with thinking that it would take multiple $250m flops in a year, but I think it will be a more complex series of circumstances. It will likely be a perfect storm of ticket prices, 3D imploding, Netflix faltering, piracy out of control, and current genres and trends coming to the end of their life cycles. The last thing I can think of of the top of my head is the '70s and '80s, with westerns dying and the emergence of sci-fi, action movies, and the true 'blockbuster". I think the other thing will be a clamoring for more original content - either 100% original screenplays, or works from previously unadapted sources. Remakes, franchise reboots, sequels, and the like are going to overstay their welcome.
See, I can't see the average joe saying to themselves, "For once I'd like to see an original, great film." They're not us. They just want to see great films. People keep saying this yet people flock to sequels and big genre tentpole films again and again. We have seen it already this year. While original films can be successful (Avatar) or either flop or underperform (John Carter). It's all about demand and striking when the iron is hot.
The day you see more Pacific Rim's or Elysium's (hell, just how well will those films do? Those will be a good gauge to give an idea of the demand) in theaters is when all of those big budget source based films all flop and suck. Which has not happened yet. It still might. But that's only if studios are always hiring ****** directors with ****** writers and and their films flop in every sense. It's a mixed bag now, and it has been for years.
Not only that, unsurprisingly, original screenplays are in low demand now in general. The genres shift every year, but specs or original screenplays are a harder sell. I'm telling you, that day when we see all of these original successful tentpole films is years off, if it will even happen. None of us can tell. Studios only foresight is franchises right now.
The ironic thing is... both of them are contributing to this 'implosion.'
How? They just said they barely got their own films in theaters. And both films took years to even get there.
They are making the point of less and less films being released in theaters, despite big names like theirs attached. It's become
harder to get films in theaters. Again, it's about the marketplace demand and what studios want.
One flop like Red Tails doesn't contribute to the road of "implosion." There have been recurring big budget flops every year ever since there were blockbusters. Also, Red Tails wasn't even released in the summer.
The point is, you can't predict the future of these things. The thing that tells all is the marketplace.