Lucifer Lucifer ratings discussion

[Kathemy]

This was known but since I didn't know the statistical mathematics behind it I was still surprised that the drop was that steep.

At this point there are only two drama shows that I am absolutely certain FOX will renew: Empire and Gotham. In my opinion it's too soon to tell with Lucifer after them only having aired six episodes. It still remains to be seen how much of the Gotham faithful will be inclined to stay with Lucifer after their show-of-choice has aired. FOX will be fighting tooth and nail to get TXF back for another season. Their entire line-up is in shambles.

Of course, then you have the really worrying fact that TXF dropped in ratings by more than 60% in six episodes. It's hard to tell if the initial ratings were due to the novelty factor or if it's viable as a staple show for the network.

 

[famicommander]

X-Files will probably get renewed but it won't be as a staple show because the two leads have already said they don't want to do a full taping schedule. I would anticipate 6-10 episodes for season 11, if it does indeed come back. 13 at the absolute most.

I'm 100% confident Lucifer will be back. American Idol is a gaping hole in the schedule, Bones is ending with a short season next year, and Lucifer is the top new show on the network. No network is going to cancel the top rated new show, especially when the rest of the channel is a massive dumpster fire.

Fox dramas this season
Empire: 4.77 (renewed)
X-Files: 3.19 (mini series)
Lucifer: 1.75 (and falling)
Rosewood: 1.55 (and falling fast)
Gotham: 1.51
Bones: 1.14 (renewed for final season)
Scream Queens: 1.09 (renewed)
Sleepy Hollow: 0.88
Second Chance: 0.72 (sure to be cancelled, already burning off episodes)
Minority Report: 0.72 (cancelled)

Even Rosewood will likely be renewed simply because Fox isn't going to want to come into fall next year with 5+ freshman dramas.

 

[Kathemy]

X-Files will probably get renewed but it won't be as a staple show because the two leads have already said they don't want to do a full taping schedule. I would anticipate 6-10 episodes for season 11, if it does indeed come back. 13 at the absolute most.

I'm 100% confident Lucifer will be back. American Idol is a gaping hole in the schedule, Bones is ending with a short season next year, and Lucifer is the top new show on the network. No network is going to cancel the top rated new show, especially when the rest of the channel is a massive dumpster fire.

I'm not. I agree with the usual predictors' assessment of "Likely Renewed" because the show has only aired six episodes and I can't tell where it will end up. It's pretty unlikely for the show to end on a 0.7, for example, but it can happen. Add to this that the show isn't "in the house."

Empire is a ratings powerhouse and when it comes to Gotham we have a proven reliability making it exceedingly unlikely that it would crash and burn, especially given increasingly favorable reviews and buzz for the show.

Don't get me wrong, here, I agree with most of the stuff you say - especially the stuff about FOX being a dumpster fire. But, the network being a dumpster fire could also result in dramatic and desperate changes. I'm even factoring in the possible-yet-extremely-unlikely collapse of the network, and it's my opinion that both Empire and Gotham would survive that.

 

[Sithborg]

I think Rosewood and Lucifer are both pretty known to depend on what they are partnered with. But, that is a better base to build from compared to other shows.

 

[famicommander]

Lucifer finally leveled off at a 1.3 rating with 4.248 million viewers.

Very good news.

 

[Kathemy]

Both Gotham and Lucifer held at same numbers. Let's hope for no downward adjustment. (Upward would be icing on the cake, but it's more important that it doesn't go down.) If this represents the show levelling off then I think it's safe.

 

[famicommander]

It's definitely not adjusting down.

The unrounded number is 1.34, so there's a chance it could adjust up.

Last week's unrounded final was 1.27, so it's actually a small increase. Just the rounded number is the same.

 

[Kathemy]

Link for unrounded number?

 

[famicommander]

http://www.spottedratings.com/2016/03/spotted-ratings-monday-3716.html#comment-2558229293

No adjustment for the rating. Final rating is 1.3/4.24 million viewers.

 

[Kathemy]

Interestingly Lucifer skews more female and older. I have a feeling - pardon me if it comes across as crass - that it appeals more to older ladies with a crush on the admittedly gorgeous Tom Ellis?

But this is good news af. I dearly hope Lucifer to stabilize now along with Gotham. With those two shows delivering a stable result (by FOX levels) each week in tandem, our future is bright.

Still can't find unrounded numbers.

 

[famicommander]

You won't find unrounded finals for a few days. The unrounded preliminaries are always posted in the spotted ratings comment section about an hour or two after the rounded prelims hit.

Daylight savings time knocked Gotham down 2 tenths while Lucifer fell one, down to 1.2.

 

[Kathemy]

Let's just hope for a rebound next week.

 

[p4poetic]

Surprised Gotham isn't doing anything for Lucifer.

 

[famicommander]

Gotham isn't really doing a whole lot better than Lucifer right now. One tenth better is essentially nothing accounting for timeslot differences. You can't expect Gotham to raise Lucifer to levels it's not even doing itself.

None of Fox's scripted dramas except Empire are doing great numbers. Which is actually great for the DC shows. Gotham is already renewed and Lucifer will be soon. No way Fox cancels its top new show.

 

[Kathemy]

You can't say if Gotham is doing anything for Lucifer or not. There's no way of knowing what the show's ratings would look like without Gotham.

 

[ZIPBAGS]

Strangest thing. I have Lucifer to automatically record on my DVR. It didn't record this week. Yet, it was a new episode. I am trying to figure out if it was something I screwed up or the software.

 

[famicommander]

Another 1.2 last night. Seems to be the normal for the show now.

In the L+7 ratings Lucifer is holding up extremely well
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2016/03/21/broadcast-live-7-ratings-feb-29-march-6-2016/

It's growing 85% from the live ratings. Not that the DVR numbers account for a lot.

 

[famicommander]

Yet another 1.2 last night.

Seems to be the normal range.

 

[Charlatan]

powerful episode last night. had me tearing up at the end. Very well written and acted. Gotham is also hitting it's stride.

 

[Kathemy]

Show is now predicted as a certain renewal by TGR.

 

[famicommander]

Show is now predicted as a certain renewal by TGR.

That guy lives in the past anyway.

He made a fool of himself with his iZombie prediction.

 

[Kathemy]

The show is renewed along with Rosewood.

 

[aNarcHy2day]

Great news! t:

 

[famicommander]

Lucifer beat Gotham and Supergirl last night. It put up a 1.3 versus 1.2s for the other two DC shows.

Really an excellent performance to grow out of a lead in.

 

[Kathemy]

Yes, that was very good, and quite surprising given last week's ratings.