MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Lightning Strykez!]

Nice perspective from The Hollywood Reporter:

“Mister Fantastic and his family are back on the big screen, only this time under the rule of Marvel Studios instead of 20th Century Fox.

In a needed win for both Kevin Feige‘s Marvel and the franchise, Matt Shakman‘s Fantastic Four: First Steps rocketed to a global opening of $218 million, including $118 million domestically and $100 million overseas, not adjusted for inflation. That’s a good start for a film series that’s been long dormant, and was never hugely successful to being with. And it’s virtually on par with the recent $220 global box office debut of DC and Warner Bros.’ Superman, who, alongside Spider-Man and Batman, is one of the most famous comic book heroes of all time.”

So in reference to the Marvel vs. DC conversation, this is an extremely powerful point for us FF fans to absorb. Think about it: the Fantastic Four—a dormant film IP that has never been respected at the box office—debuted this weekend with a higher global tally than The Man of Steel himself.

Jesus. That’s…mind blowing s****.

 

[Primal Slayer]

But were the 2005/ 2007 films considered really successful even in their time? They were both critically panned and I seem to recall massive 55-60% drops in their second weekends (don’t quote me, LOL).

The first made $333mill on an $84mill budget. That was moderately successful.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

The 1st was considered a success considering it cost 100 mil, but ROTSS was considered a failure because of the diminishing returns and the prospect of the cast costs increasing, thus 3rd movie would have had a budget increase at a loss of box office. I remember a 3rd was briefly entertained. Ultimately, probably was best it didn't happen cause I think they maybe wanted to get Black Panther in the movie, and in those movies with Tim Story, would have held the IPs potential back.

I mean…I guess.

We all remember the FOX regime with Tom Rothman. They did not care about quality, storytelling, or the source material—their sole concern was to milk the Marvel IPs for all their worth. Which explains so many of the choices they made with the directors, story, casting and more. FOX was notorious for greenlighting tons of rotten films, even beyond the Fantastic Four franchise. The first film was very poorly received by both audiences and the critics, but FOX pushed for a sequel without addressing any of the problems. The fact that they made the third film simply to keep the rights from Marvel shows how desperate their business mindset was back then. In the end, this IP was absolutely trashed for 20 years straight. They made the F4 into a joke.

So for all these reasons, I definitely would not say that any of first three films were genuinely successful, whatever their box office intakes. The general audiences did not respect the brand or take it seriously like the other Marvel franchises of the day like the X-Men and Spider-Man.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm satisfied with the opening numbers that the reboot got. I feel like given all the circumstances with the ip back at Fox/Marvel Studios in the last few years/months, the numbers could have been lower. Now I'm just hoping it would cross the $250 million mark (domestically), so the sequel would be fast tracked.

One thing is for certain, this would be the highest grossing Marvel of the year (out of the 3 films), at least domestically.

 

[Sithborg]

To break this down a bit, I want to look at the 1st installments of the solo movies (rounding figures and by order of gross):

Black Panther - 202 Dom OW, 700 Dom Total, 1.335 WW

Black Panther first appeared in CW, so this wasn't a true 1st movie for him. It's more or less a spinoff.

Captain Marvel - 154 Dom OW, 427 Dom Total, 1.129 WW

 Spider-Man: Homecoming - 117 Dom OW, 335 Dom Total, 879 WW

Like Black Panther, also sort of a Spinoff and its Spider-Man

Guardians of the Galaxy - 94 Dom OW, 333 Dom Total, 771 WW

Iron Man - 98 Dom OW, 319 Dom Total, 585 WW

Doctor Strange - 85 Dom OW, 232 Dom Total, 676 WW

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings - 75 Dom OW, 225 Dom Total, 432 WW

Black Widow - 80 Dom OW, 184 Dom Total, 380 WW

BW and Shang-Chi released during Covid

Thunderbolts* - 74 Dom OW, 190 Dom Total, 382 WW

Most of these characters originated in other properties before this one.

Thor - 66 Dom OW, 181 Dom Total, 449 WW

Ant-Man - 58 Dom OW, 180 Dom Total, 518 WW

Captain America: The First Avenger - 66 Dom OW, 176 Dom Total, 371 WW

Eternals - 71 Dom OW, 174 Dom Total, 401 WW

Eternals released during Covid

The Incredible Hulk - 55 Dom OW, 135 Dom Total, 266 WW

So FF's OW will be higher than many of these at least domestically. But the MCU as a whole has been seeing a massive decline in international box office. Most of the higher WW entries here came during Phase 3. FF I think most estimates put it on pace for like a 550ish low end or 600ish high end depending on if the legs get better. That's a lot better than many of their recent 1st entries, their OW is going to depending upon final number either be 2nd best OW since Phase 5 or 3rd (depends if it falls below 118...in which case it'd be just under GOTG3).

So what I am saying is, I think we will be okay. Especially with how reception seems to be on the various metrics. Sure, it making like 800 mil and beating everyone would have been BETTER. But I don't see this anywhere close to a disaster. The MCU is still in a building it all back up phase.

Not just the MCU. Aquaman and Venom all kind of collapsed internationally. D&W remains the only outlier.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Spider-Man 4 and Avengers 5 aren’t going to be as popular as their direct predecessors were theatrically. The only question is how big of a drop off it’s going to be.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Spider-Man 4 and Avengers 5 aren’t going to be as popular as their direct predecessors were. The only question is how big of a drop off it’s going to be.

Spider-Man I think can still do FFH type numbers. Which I would call a win. People still like Tom Holland.

Doomsday will be interesting. That's a movie that sort of has to make 2 billion minimum, but in the current landscape....I am not so sure it can. Not unless it gets an IW type reception, and I see too many red flags.

 

[Sithborg]

Spider-Man I think can still do FFH type numbers. Which I would call a win. People still like Tom Holland.

Doomsday will be interesting. That's a movie that sort of has to make 2 billion minimum, but in the current landscape....I am not so sure it can. Not unless it gets an IW type reception, and I see too many red flags.

Spider-man will still do a billion. Doomsday I think can cross 2 billion, but I'm not entirely sure they are spending that amount of money for only 2 billion. If China has all but collapsed on superhero movies, than even 2 billion may be a stretch.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Spider-man will still do a billion. Doomsday I think can cross 2 billion, but I'm not entirely sure they are spending that amount of money for only 2 billion. If China has all but collapsed on superhero movies, than even 2 billion may be a stretch.

That's what I mean, they need China and these Asian markets if they want to do 2 billion+, and right now that's just not happening. We may live in a world where Doomsday is a 1.5-2 billion movie

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Endgame was inflated by being released before Covid19 and before Disney+. Had it released in 2020-2021 it would have made less money. Same with Spider-Man: NWH, if Covid19 didn’t exist and Disney+ didn’t exist it would’ve cleared $2B and made more than it did.

Now there’s also the more recent issue of younger audiences and overseas audiences (especially China and some other Asian countries) not caring as much as they used to just a few years ago about American superhero movies.

What Avengers 5 has going for it is the key jangling callback movie strategy that powered No Way Home and Deadpool & Wolverine with Robert Downey Jr. and a bunch of old casts coming back.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Endgame was inflated by being released before Covid19 and before Disney+. Had it released in 2020-2021 it would have made less money. Same with Spider-Man: NWH, if Covid19 didn’t exist and Disney+ didn’t exist it would’ve cleared $2B and made more than it did.

Now there’s also the more recent issue of younger audiences and overseas audiences (especially China and some other Asian countries) not caring as much as they used to just a few years ago about American superhero movies.

What Avengers 5 has going for it is the key jangling callback movie strategy that powered No Way Home and Deadpool & Wolverine with Robert Downey Jr. and a bunch of old casts coming back.

But will that be enough? IW and EG were well regarded films, with an A and A+ Cinemascores respectively and right now, the MCU has been lucky to get an A- movie out in recent times. I am not saying Doomsday is going to flop at this point, but what I am saying is it's possible it falls under 2 billion with how markets have been shrinking and audiences just are not as enthusiastic when watching. That's not to factor in the various incomplete script rumors and the rushed nature of Doom's pivot. I don't know if RDJ means it will be D&W. The magic on that movie was the audience really liked that movie

 

[Sithborg]

With the sheer amount of money being spent on those two movies, expectations are sky high.

 

[Spider-Fan]

With the sheer amount of money being spent on those two movies, expectations are sky high.

Which is why I say Doomsday needs a 2 billion minimum. Anything lower, that's very bad

 

[Primal Slayer]

Marvel and Disney would be stupid to expect 2billion.

The lead up to Doomsday has been TERRIBLE. Their leads arent as big as the OGs. Not even RDJ can pull in an audience all on his own for these types of movies

 

[GreenKToo]

I think doomsday will do good to hit a billion. The hype for it isn't NEAR what we saw for infinity war or endgame.
I doubt we see anything like that again for decades, if ever.
And I say then same for any future DC ensemble films.

 

[Sithborg]

Marvel and Disney would be stupid to expect 2billion.

The lead up to Doomsday has been TERRIBLE. Their leads arent as big as the OGs. Not even RDJ can pull in an audience all on his own for these types of movies

They are both half a billion dollar movies. The expected ROI on a half billion spent on a movie? Well, remember the honest answer was that Avengers 1 NEEDED a billion.

 

[psylockolussus]

Domestic
$118,000,000

International
$100,000,000

Worldwide
$218,000,000

 

[MahvelBaby!]

I think if Doomsday makes somewhere around IW money and is well received Disney will be happy


Now Secret Wars...

 

[donuts]

Domestic
$118,000,000

International
$100,000,000

Worldwide
$218,000,000

Actuals are out.

Domestic
$117,644,828

International
$99,058,811

Worldwide
$216,703,639

Not bad, Marvel's First Family ,not bad at all!

I really do not subscribe to some fans' pessimism. The movie has had a very successful OW, and will be the highest grossing Fantastic Four movie in a matter of days.

This and Superman have had a very similar OW, and that's two franchises which were run into the ground theatrically.

I call that a clear rebound for DC and Marvel's original success stories.

Why worry about the two Avengers movies coming up? Let's enjoy the moment for once. Celebrate the Fantastic Four!

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think if Doomsday makes somewhere around IW money and is well received Disney will be happy


Now Secret Wars...

I agree, but I think the chances of it making IW money are close to zero.

Marvel was at the absolute top of their game going into IW. Everything they touched was gold, and people were filling theaters to see the films leading up to IW that featured those mysterious powerful gemstones and a Purple guy who was up to something.

There’s nothing like that going into Doomsday. They didn’t even give Doom any lines or any other hints regarding where this is going or why we should care.

They could have and should have given us more at the end of FF to give us (and more importantly less engaged viewers than us) some reason to be looking forward to Doomsday.

With where things currently stand Marvel is going to have to work hard over the next year to get people interested.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I hate to say this, but....I think if goal is to make a Doom splash before Doomsday....you put him post credits of Spider-Man and confirm Tom Holland being in Doomsday that way.

Not what I want, personally. But it is how you make a splash. Spider-Man will have the widest audience before Doomsday

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

‘The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ Breaks a Box Office Curse

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/27/business/media/the-fantastic-four-first-steps-box-office.html

“The movie is a step-up in concept, storytelling and appeal,” said David A. Gross, a film consultant who publishes a newsletter on box office numbers. “We haven’t had this kind of performance from the genre for a long time.”

“First Steps” arrived two weeks after “Superman,” which was a hit for DC Studios and Warner Bros. Mr. Gross noted that studios are releasing only four superhero movies in 2025 (they have all come already), down from eight in 2023. “This is the new normal,” he said, explaining the pullback as Hollywood realizing that supply had exceeded demand.

As of now, the next superhero movie is 11 months away — “Supergirl,” in June of next year.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Actuals are out.

Domestic
$117,644,828

International
$99,058,811

Worldwide
$216,703,639

Not bad, Marvel's First Family ,not bad at all!

I really do not subscribe to some fans' pessimism. The movie has had a very successful OW, and will be the highest grossing Fantastic Four movie in a matter of days.

This and Superman have had a very similar OW, and that's two franchises which were run into the ground theatrically.

I call that a clear rebound for DC and Marvel's original success stories.

Why worry about the two Avengers movies coming up? Let's enjoy the moment for once. Celebrate the Fantastic Four!

Agreed. The Fantastic Four’s return to the box office ring has been nothing short of a triumph. People really seem to love the film and I think good days are ahead for Marvel.

 

[psylockolussus]

Both Doomsday and Secret Wars are likely to gross over a billion. If it breaks even, is another Thing.

 

[psylockolussus]

MCU's opening weekend (Friday to Sunday, North America)
$357,115,007 Endgame
$260,138,569 No Way Home
$257,698,183 Infinity War
$211,435,291 Deadpool & Wolverine
$207,438,708 Avengers
$202,003,951 Black Panther
$191,271,109 Age of Ultron
$187,420,998 Multiverse of Madness
$181,339,761 Wakanda Forever
$179,139,142 Civil War
$174,144,585 Iron Man 3
$153,433,423 Captain Marvel
$146,510,104 Vol. 2
$144,165,107 Love and Thunder
$122,744,989 Ragnarok
$128,122,480 Iron Man 2
$117,644,828 First Steps
$117,027,503 Homecoming
$118,414,021 Volume 3
$106,109,650 Quantumania
$98,618,668 Iron Man
$95,023,721 Winter Soldier
$94,320,883 Guardians
$92,579,212 Far from Home
$88,842,603 Brave New World
$85,737,841 Dark World
$85,058,311 Doctor Strange
$80,366,312 Black Widow
$75,812,205 Ant-Man and the Wasp
$75,388,688 Shang-Chi
$74,300,608 Thunderbolts*
$71,297,219 Eternals
$65,723,338 Thor
$65,058,524 First Avenger
$57,225,526 Ant-Man
$55,414,050 Incredible Hulk
$46,110,859 Marvels

20th MCU film to open over $100 million in North America. 17th highest opening weekend for a MCU film.