Box Office Predictions for the new TMNT movie

[Axelrod]

Because the film is complete garbage that's why. I find it a shame that people would rather watch this Michael Bay drivel then watch Guardians of the Galaxy again. Rewatch the cartoon if people want to see their Turtles.

Whoa there buddy.......relax.

This film isn't in the same "Galaxy" as guardians. (That was intentional). I actually seen guardians 3 times in the theaters and it's my favorite film of the summer by far , but, like I predicted, I knew reguardless of what the quality of TMNT was as a film, people were going to see it. We are talking about the freakin TEANAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES!!! A property that has a 30 year nostalgic hold on the GENERAL AUDIENCE. With the swiftness of the announcement of the sequel date and it's position, I know for a fact that bay,paramount and nick had a plan with this film to ESTABLISH a new fanbase (kids born in the 2000) while luring in the established demographic (80's babies like myself) and priming them on the new vision (albeit it wasn't for everyone's liking but change isn't for everyone.

My take on this film since it's anouncement was just to be "good enough" and not screw up the main characteristics of the main attraction : THE TURTLES. I couldn't hold it to marvel studios and Nolan batman films standards simply because they are kinda getting their feet wet in this new arena. The negative backlash with the positive box office actually works in their favor. It leaves a open door now to give full fan service and suprise people with a excellent sequel. First class and days of future past are perfect examples after the last stand.

Lemme put it like this, when news starts to go around about the possible inclusion of the technodrome, bebop and rocksteady, Casey jones and Krang , those hellbent on a crap sequel will sing a different tune

 

[NinjaTurtleFan]

And not a single bit of this was present in the movie.

Explosions: Tower crash, Humvees crash, and truck crash.

****: Raph and Mikey hanging onto a pair on a billboard.

Ass: Vernon ogles April's ass. They make sure to put her in tight hip-hugging jeans or yoga pants and objectify April to the max. Granted, April is a babe in any incarnation of the Turtles, but she's more than just a fine piece of ass and ****; she is intelligent and an intrepid reporter. Casting Megan Fox didn't help in that in the first place; all she is eye candy and her as a believable reporter wanting to be taken seriously is like Denise Richards wanting to be taken seriously as a scientist in a Bond film.

And whether it's Vernon or Mikey, April gets creeped on a lot in this movie and I'm surprised feminist groups or concerned mother groups aren't coming out or haven't written a review of their own about the objectification of April O'Neil in this movie let alone sexualizing/presenting her as nothing more than something to be hit on. At least the April in the cartoons would tell guys hitting on her she didn't like, let alone criminals, what she thought of them. I know if I had a son I wouldn't want him going around school repeating, "My shell is tightening" when he sees a little girl he has a crush on at his school. Yeah, teenagers will say the darndest things but you got one guy who essentially acts like a cradle-robber and the other a bipedal reptile who didn't nearly hit on April as much as he did in the old films. But maybe that's how Bay does it. "Hey, I have ***** for you... want to go make out?"

 

[FrostBite]

Explosions: Tower crash, Humvees crash, and truck crash.

****: Raph and Mikey hanging onto a pair on a billboard.

Ass: Vernon ogles April's ass. They make sure to put her in tight hip-hugging jeans or yoga pants and objectify April to the max. Granted, April is a babe in any incarnation of the Turtles, but she's more than just a fine piece of ass and ****; she is intelligent and an intrepid reporter. Casting Megan Fox didn't help in that in the first place; all she is eye candy and her as a believable reporter wanting to be taken seriously is like Denise Richards wanting to be taken seriously as a scientist in a Bond film.

And whether it's Vernon or Mikey, April gets creeped on a lot in this movie and I'm surprised feminist groups or concerned mother groups aren't coming out or haven't written a review of their own about the objectification of April O'Neil in this movie let alone sexualizing/presenting her as nothing more than something to be hit on. At least the April in the cartoons would tell guys hitting on her she didn't like, let alone criminals, what she thought of them. I know if I had a son I wouldn't want him going around school repeating, "My shell is tightening" when he sees a little girl he has a crush on at his school. Yeah, teenagers will say the darndest things but you got one guy who essentially acts like a cradle-robber and the other a bipedal reptile who didn't nearly hit on April as much as he did in the old films. But maybe that's how Bay does it. "Hey, I have ***** for you... want to go make out?"

This is bull****. You know I love ya NTF, but this entire post here is just bull****. Except for the ogling April's nether regions.

First off, a crash isn't an explosion. That's like calling peanut butter the same as margarine. There's one or two blasts but it happens so quick that meh, they hardly even counts as Bay-splosion. I should know, I love Bay's work but good golly miss molly he loves dem pyrotechnics, and there's none of them here. On top of that, want to count explosions? Guardians has at least 400. I'm just saying.

Secondly, sexualization his hardly present. It's abundant in TF, and, well, I love it, because TF is a franchise built on carnal pleasure and the roaring spectacle of those desires. Here? Here April and women are honestly treated better than in 99% of Hollywood media released in the past 15 years. April O'Neil is the first woman I've seen not wear mini-skirts, short-shorts, or even a low cut top. She is covered from head to toe the entirety of the movie. April in the 1990s flick is literally creeped on by every turtle, waltzes around in short-shorts without a bra on with her nipples poking out at the country home. She also exists as no other reason except for the Turtles to hit on, stay with, and for Casey to eventually bang. April in the second movie does nothing at all but look good. April's role in the live action films (not cartoons or comics) has so far been far less involved and purposeful as this movie; even if it's not the best flick to many. Also worth noting that unlike 1990 it doesn't end with a male winning her over and making out on the street. It ends with her as an independent woman. So... come the **** on.

Not only that the movie actually takes a jab at sexualizing women as Mikey does it ONCE yes, ONCE before being shut down rather aggressively by Raph to shut the **** up. Afterward Mikey hits on her yes, but never in a sexual manner, it's all very playful as if coming from an over-confident teen; each time he's still shut down by his brothers.

"Duuuude my girlfriend is totally the hogosha," isn't "creeping" it's as Leo says "be[ing] an idiot,". Mikey says a single creepy line. Boom. One. Of which your son wouldn't mimic it if he has half a brain cell as the entire movie they shut him down for that kind of behavior. In fact, it's the most animosity Raph shows him the entire movie.

Now, let's look at her role in the flick even. She's never taken seriously by Vern who sees her as a piece of *** and we're supposed to hate him for this. This is a lot different than Sam Witwicky's journey for sexual conquest. We're supposed to hate Vern for it, and see him as pathetic. As the movie goes on her increasing frustration with not being taken seriously comes to a pique once he realizes she actually was capable of bringing in a big story. Until then, literally everyone from bosses to co-workers didn't take her seriously.

As a man married to a woman who fitness models as well as works a nursing career, the better you look the more your work place hits you with hostility and creates a glass ceiling. You're also more easily fired for being seen as an idiot--just as Megan Fox is called by a majority of people around here. This is all based simply on your looks.

The Victoria's Secret gag was nothing but blatant product placement mixed with a boob joke. Oh jee.

Not any worse than Drax straight calling Gamora a w***e for no apparent reason (want your son repeating that?), nor the increasing feminization of her role and personality as she eventually becomes a conquest for the male protagonist.

Legit, you can have your problems with the movie, but this **** is unfounded bull based on preconceived notions of a Bay produced piece of media and Megan Fox's looks/role choices in the past painting her into a corner in your mind. Literally conjuring up this imaginary bull is, in itself just as offensive as the TF movies portrayal of women, if not more. Whether or not you want to discredit her ability to act, you did so in creating a sexual object out of her.

Which is just ****ing gross, brah.

And before you say the studio courted her for the eye candy aspect yet again; she courted them once she heard the movie was in production. She has gone on record that they have never contacted her, but when internet rumors sprouted up about her being cast and she found out the movie was in production she wanted to get into the movie so badly that she said to her agent "get me random woman in the back of the news room #3 but I HAVE to be in this movie," this is all on her bro. Jesus, I am pretty sure the Mikey fawning for her is all on her. Why do I say that? She is a fan. Maybe she doesn't read a ton of comics, but she doesn't need to, to be one. Growing up she has confessed many, many times with pure candor "Michelangelo was my first crush as a little girl". This is just a turtles fan so desperate to be in a flick she'd apologize to man she compared to Hitler just to get a shot at it and you're dissection of her involvement, role, and personhood was pretty sexist. (You wonder why she told so many to "**** off"? I would have too.)

Man, I so get people having problems with a movie, but I hate that all this Michael Bay crap is "I hate the movies' scripts so I'll find illogical reasons to hate it. Then I'll turn a blind eye to my own hypocrisy with the thousands of other movies in Hollywood." There's a difference between hating the content in the way it is presented as opposed to hating the content, because I guarantee you love sexualizing women and explosions or you wouldn't go to many movies. You certainly wouldn't read comic books.

 

[scifiwolf]

FrostBite's right. The Vern stuff is meant to be hated by the audiences to show what a jerk he is. It's supposed to make his redemption fighting Sachs a little more powerful. Unfortunately, it's just clumsily handled by the writers and director. Mikey's obsession is constantly being ridiculed by his brothers. The objectification is always countered with an attitude that it is NOT ok.

Personally, I loved the VS billboard scene, and had no problem with it. My only gripe was it wasn't complimented with more tidbits during the credits.

 

[FrostBite]

FrostBite's right. The Vern stuff is meant to be hated by the audiences to show what a jerk he is. It's supposed to make his redemption fighting Sachs a little more powerful. Unfortunately, it's just clumsily handled by the writers and director. Mikey's obsession is constantly being ridiculed by his brothers. The objectification is always countered with an attitude that it is NOT ok.

Personally, I loved the VS billboard scene, and had no problem with it. My only gripe was it wasn't complimented with more tidbits during the credits.

Yeah me too, I was really hoping for like you know, some sort of compilation of Turtle antics in the credits. Just them doing their thing in random moments. And yeah, I love the flick but Vern is still a two-bit loser who listens to Careless Whisper alone in his house. xP There's no redemption.

I think maybe we're meant to see him that way, the Irma to Casey's April in the sequel.

 

[Marvin]

Maybe they could have complimented the credits with more elevator footage. Still can't believe they paid for a longer render and supposedly only used a portion.

I'm not surprised by the box office success of the film, I always knew this is going to be appealing for viewers despite the low reviews. Back in 2007 when the animated film TMNT was released back in 2007, I was wondering why they aren't releasing another live-action since it would guarantee more money. Its nice to see this film became successful and to have a sequel. I was tempted to see this but the reviews stopped me, but I'll buying the film when it comes out on DVD.

You'd be surprised how many people were. Professional analysts at that. Not but a few days ago even. I even remember posting how they also happens the week of TF early reviews and polarizing bay talks. Those that never learn are doomed to repeat and all that.
Any few days now we will be seeing the traditional article about the death of cinema due to this film.

Anyways I think this film making Marvel Studios money is a great start. Shame it probably would have made a bit more if it had a better date.

I'm hearing it made more in one weekend than the last film in it's entire run. Good sign.

 

[Klank]

Both would suffer if they opened together.

True but far more people went to see Gaurdians in it's first week than TMNT in it's first week. That suggests that there was far more interest in the former and that if they went head to head GOTG would win handily.

If it had happened I think no matter how much TMNT made a big talking point with the media would be that it came in second, that it "lost" to an unknown property.

Just like now it's "beat" a movie that broke records and beat the predictions. Forget for a minute GOTG was in it's second week and all of the predictions were made before they did the eleventh hour ramping up of promo.

I don't begrudge them passing this off a great success, that's their job and I'm sure they adjusted their expectations long ago but when you think this set out to be on the level of Marvel movies or Transformers then I think they messed up. Michael Bay is still laughing all the way to the bank but if he has any sense he's not laughing quite so hard.

 

[Marvin]

True but far more people went to see Gaurdians in it's first week than TMNT in it's first week. That suggests that there was far more interest in the former and that if they went head to head GOTG would win handily.

If it had I think no matter how much TMNT made a big talking point with the media would be that it came in second, that it "lost" to an unknown property.

Just like now it's "beat" a movie that broke records and beat the predictions. Forget for a minute GOTG was in it's second week and all of the predictions were made before they did the eleventh hour ramping up of promo.

I don't begrudge them passing this off a great success, that's their job and I'm sure they adjusted their expectations long ago but when you think this set out to be on the level of Marvel movies or Transformers then I think they messed up. Michael Bay is still laughing all the way to the bank but if he has any sense he's not laughing quite so hard.

Do me a personal favor and look up the opening weekends for both Thor and Cap. In the same thought, take a minute to think on why GotG is opening higher than both of those. But more to the point, TMNT actually did do marvel numbers if we stop sweeping phase one under the rug. The reason it probably didn't do TF(1) numbers my infact have to do with the director not being the TF1 director.

At some point people are going to have to stop painting marvel the underdog with unknown brands. Their brand itself is known, very much like a pixar film has a built in brand, that along with the idea that all these recent films are Avengers sequels/spin offs(see IM3). If GotG opened up in 2007 with no tie ins to other bigger/hit films(the way some of their competition does) it would no doubt open to different numbers. If Serenity was an avengers follow up it may have opened higher. There are more spins going on here than just turtles knocking down a film in it's second weekend. That being said, it's easier to open big when you have no lingering competition than it is to open big whilst something big is out and taking your audience and buzz away.

What's more, as big as turtles is, it does actually seem all that historically lucrative as of late.

 

[Klank]

Do me a personal favor and look up the opening weekends for both Thor and Cap. In the same thought, take a minute to think on why GotG is opening higher than both of those. But more to the point, TMNT actually did do marvel numbers if we stop sweeping phase one under the rug. The reason it probably didn't do TF(1) numbers my infact have to do with the director not being the TF1 director.

At some point people are going to have to stop painting marvel the underdog with unknown brands. Their brand itself is known, very much like a pixar film has a built in brand, that along with the idea that all these recent films are Avengers sequels/spin offs(see IM3). If GotG opened up in 2007 with no tie ins to other bigger/hit films(the way some of their competition does) it would no doubt open to different numbers. If Serenity was an avengers follow up it may have opened higher. There are more spins going on here than just turtles knocking down a film in it's second weekend. That being said, it's easier to open big when you have no lingering competition than it is to open big whilst something big is out and taking your audience and buzz away.

Well many people still think Bay directed TMNT. I'd say at this point his attachment has been as much of a stigma that it wasn't when he got people hooked on the habit of watching his Transformers movies.

I think it's kinda interesting that when it was first announced that these two movies would be released around the same time the argument from many of this movie's defenders was that it would easily own Guardians of the Galaxy due to it being an unknown with a tenuous link to Marvel's cinematic universe would be nothing compared to TMNT's brand identity.

Months ticked on and with little marketing the argument from same defenders suddenly changed to TMNT being an underdog in a race against a much hypes Avengers spin off and that if it came in second it would be no defeat.

For me personally I see the Disney backed Marvel studios as huge force but by no means infallible and do give praise that they've a completely unknown property like Guardians with no direct links to their previous movies and with some hard to swallow concepts and made it a hit.

And yes when I talk about Marvel money I tend to think of their better successes but even then Thor and First Avenger came out with fairly consistent word of mouth and I hold the immense success of Avengers to be partly thanks to that as well as the success of The Dark World and The Winter Soldier too.

TMNT (2014) is different. People have been coming out of this with much more divisive views and that's factoring in TMNT's rather generous sliding scale based on the whole "hey it's talking turtles it's supposed to be crap" mentality even those who liked it cop to some pretty gaping flaws.

What's more, as big as turtles is, it does actually seem all that historically lucrative as of late.

I've said before that the overall success of the franchise hasn't ever bled through to movies. The only one that performed well by the standards of movies of it's time was the 1990 movie. The franchise was still at it's peak a year later so there was no reason for such a big drop with Secret of the Ooze except the movie wasn't as good.

I have also said that TMNT is at a point right now that it hasn't ever really been. The current cartoon is "popping" in a way the '03 one didn't and even crossing over with adults in a way the '87 didn't. People are at the right age to indulge their nostalgia as well as share it with their children. Not to mention comic book properties are hitting in a way once thought impossible. There's no reason why a big budget live action TMNT movie couldn't reach Marvel levels but it obviously isn't.

It's successful yes but something of a dent in the idea that they can throw anything out there with a familiar brand name and have them swimming in money.

 

[Marvin]

@Klank

Time out, I did mention that this opened to the same amount if not more money than both thor and cap right? That's marvel(winning streak) money, I don't see any two ways around it. Comparing it to a film that is sold as a chapter in a massively popular shared and established universe isn't the same thing, next we'll be comparing this film to a unknown star wars universe film(spin off). As for the people that thought it was bigger than this marvel movie, they were wrong, or simply miscalculated all the angles. That being said, what happens now is the same thing that happened when those marvel sequels(the ones that got sequels) moved forward into sequels, momentum and even bigger numbers.

That's great about how non divisive phase one movies were(not wholly accurate mind you) but that doesn't change the fact that they were examples of marvel money. Hulk as well, another popular one..

As for you suggesting turtles was bigger in pop culture just prior to this movie than it ever was in the 90's. Sorry but that seems like a miscalculation as I pointed to above. From the massive toy sales to that cartoon intro that everyone knew to vanilla ice...and I'm supposed to believe nick toons have single handedly trumped all that with their 'popular show' and current nostalgia. I'd have a hard time accepting such a thing from perhaps the most popular kids show on(adventure time imo), that of being bigger than turtles were in the 90's.
Especially when you actually consider what is 'in' these days and the effect of all that noise vying for relevance. That is, there is alot of competition for film pop culture right now. Just look at the film landscape during that 1990 year compared to what's around these days(3D kids cinema alone). Moreover reboots, such as Robocop or Terminator or even Apes and particularly Spiderman; simply don't strike up audience imagination the way their first landings(first ever visages) do...I digress. If anything the turtle brand is in a similar situation as superman. People look to it's name recognition as the be all end all, whilst ignoring the actual numbers the series has actually and recently put up. A string of poor and poorly received films dampers the any such thing. As big as turtles in fact was back then, it wasn't exactly competing with Batman or Jurassic Park even R rated Terminator on the box office stage...the popular things at the time. It pretty much did what it's doing now in relation to the popular things.

That's great that bay's name was all over this. My point was that he didn't direct it. Had he, then we'd no doubt be seeing a different box office number. And seriously, no link to the avengers? As interesting as a discussion as that would no doubt be, I sat through a televised marvel featurette in which Feige went on about this film being the next chapter and then AOS next with hulk buster concept art and Thanos and so on. It's pretty clear what they are doing and how they are doing it. Again, Serenity bombed. What would that film Marvel Studios logo attached?

Let's also note what the people and analysts were predicting just prior to opening week. Brand and nostalgia boost and all, these people thought one thing, but once the film got out there it did another. WoM pushing it even further out than GotG's did it's own early predictions.

Lastly, budgets tend to be one of the deciding factors when it comes to requisite expectations. Comparing tmnt's to that of it's competition says it all. What's more, just what would the 3day number be had it not had it's target audience cannibalized by a strong second week performer. Another 5-10mill?

 

[terry78]

Went to see Let's Be Cops last night and looked inside the 9pm showing of TMNT....packed again. I think it may be number 1 twice in a row.

 

[Knightstalker]

Estimates put TMNT at #1 with $26 million

 

[Golgo-13]

I posted a few pages back that this would take the top spot again; never underestimate the power of a film that's geared towards kids.

 

[thorstone]

The movie dropped 57% from its opening weekend.

 

[terry78]

Figured, but it made enough to justify a continuation.

 

[Marvin]

The movie dropped 57% from its opening weekend.

1.5% higher than GotG(which had a good hold) and with more new competition. Every week the movie defies the rhetoric that it would bomb and instead, performs.

 

[Mysteryman]

Yeah, I remember a lot of projections that it would not do better than 35 million in its opening weekend .
And then detractors saying once people had seen the movie, it would tank.
I am very glad it has held up so well.

 

[LostSon88]

1.5% higher than GotG(which had a good hold) and with more new competition. Every week the movie defies the rhetoric that it would bomb and instead, performs.

Haters gonna hate.

 

[Klank]

Time out, I did mention that this opened to the same amount if not more money than both thor and cap right? That's marvel(winning streak) money, I don't see any two ways around it. Comparing it to a film that is sold as a chapter in a massively popular shared and established universe isn't the same thing, next we'll be comparing this film to a unknown star wars universe film(spin off). As for the people that thought it was bigger than this marvel movie, they were wrong, or simply miscalculated all the angles. That being said, what happens now is the same thing that happened when those marvel sequels(the ones that got sequels) moved forward into sequels, momentum and even bigger numbers.

How about comparing this movie to it's closest competition?

Guardians has tertiary connection to the Marvel cinematic universe, an unknown property to the casual public, not even that well known among comic readers, a similar appeal and target audience to TMNT and yet we all know how well it's done against Ninja Turtles.

As for you suggesting turtles was bigger in pop culture just prior to this movie than it ever was in the 90's. Sorry but that seems like a miscalculation as I pointed to above. From the massive toy sales to that cartoon intro that everyone knew to vanilla ice...and I'm supposed to believe nick toons have single handedly trumped all that with their 'popular show' and current nostalgia. I'd have a hard time accepting such a thing from perhaps the most popular kids show on(adventure time imo), that of being bigger than turtles were in the 90's.
Especially when you actually consider what is 'in' these days and the effect of all that noise vying for relevance. That is, there is alot of competition for film pop culture right now. Just look at the film landscape during that 1990 year compared to what's around these days(3D kids cinema alone). Moreover reboots, such as Robocop or Terminator or even Apes and particularly Spiderman; simply don't strike up audience imagination the way their first landings(first ever visages) do...I digress. If anything the turtle brand is in a similar situation as superman. People look to it's name recognition as the be all end all, whilst ignoring the actual numbers the series has actually and recently put up. A string of poor and poorly received films dampers the any such thing. As big as turtles in fact was back then, it wasn't exactly competing with Batman or Jurassic Park even R rated Terminator on the box office stage...the popular things at the time. It pretty much did what it's doing now in relation to the popular things.

I'm in no way suggesting that the TMNT franchise is bigger now than it was back in the late eighties early nineties but what I am suggesting is that the market is more ready for a successful turtles movie.

How well the franchise has done in TV ratings and merchandise sales and the like has never really had an impact on how well as the movies have done. Only really the first made good money for a movie of it's type was expected to do at the time. A short year later the franchise was still huge and yet had a huge drop in it's box office. There really is no reason for it beyond the fact that it was an inferior movie.

Right now the market is primed for a TMNT movie. There's a popular childrens television series, adults are now at the right age to be swayed by nostalgia, comic book based movies are very much the "in" thing right now. There's no reason why TMNT shouldn't be making numbers on the level of Guardians of the Galaxy.

That's great that bay's name was all over this. My point was that he didn't direct it. Had he, then we'd no doubt be seeing a different box office number

I'm genuinely curious why you feel Bay directing this would have made a difference.

 

[Marvin]

How about comparing this movie to it's closest competition?

Guardians has tertiary connection to the Marvel cinematic universe, an unknown property to the casual public, not even that well known among comic readers, a similar appeal and target audience to TMNT and yet we all know how well it's done against Ninja Turtles.

Guardians have a tertiary connection? Just how much(more) do you suppose this film would have made had it came out in 2005 along side the similar and similarly well made Serenity film? That is before the MCU brand became the brand it has? That's great that it doesn't star non tertiaries such as Thor or Cap, but the trailers I saw had a character that was in the former(collector) as well as a lead in that mentioned not only what other films the studio had recently made but also implied it was 'in continuity' to those said films. Are we really going to play at how mcu branding works and disregard it's boost entirely?
If TMNT was sold as having a tangible connection to TF(in that franchise' heights) it would no doubt be making more imo. Next we'll be acting as if DrStrange and Antman are going to be independent successes as well, even with the latter's release date.

Secondly, just what is TMNT's closest competition? How exactly do you define that. Does TMNT have some 'tertiary connection' in continuity to the hottest thing going right now? More importantly, do you consider Rise of the Planet of the apes, a film with a bigger name in cinema than either imo, some massive under performer?
That's my point, if Apes can open at 50 and land at 170 with it's name and be considered a hit in spite of what pirates did, why can't TMNT? I find what you are doing to be severely obtuse tbh. It would be like comparing TF1/Pirates to Thor/TFA and suggesting the latter under performed when it's in fact the former that simply over performed. Note the measure of 'well known' amongst all these...

GotG is very much pulling in the biggest numbers of the summer(in August) and because TMNT isn't(in August) it's now considered under performing? How's about calling something under performing when it actually does just that. Starting with it's budget.

Right now the market is primed for a TMNT movie. There's a popular childrens television series, adults are now at the right age to be swayed by nostalgia, comic book based movies are very much the "in" thing right now. There's no reason why TMNT shouldn't be making numbers on the level of Guardians of the Galaxy.

GotG isn't the standard performance for a franchise starter, again it's over performing. It's making more than both Thor and Cap's sequels...are those also under performing by your definitions?

If you mean to suggest a TMNT movie in this market should do better than it did in prior markets...well, it has. I'm not even going to take the easy way out and point to 2007 which was released in a similar market. It's already making more than all the prior ones. As for nostalgia, that can only go so far. Nostalgia doesn't automatically mean massive numbers for any such film. That would imply Oz was in line to break some sort of records or this new Jurassic Park film would shatter everything due to nostalgia. It helps but it's not the end all nor the be all.

Ninja turtles isn't being sold as a comic book film imo and again, I've seen plenty of films bomb even under that magical cbm umbrella you are describing. As for being based on a hit tv show...again, I can point to instances where that means little. You are seemingly looking for excuses to tout this as some failure to meet your preconceived massive expectations. The simple(and I do mean simple)fact is that the TMNT brand has almost never meant big numbers at the box office on name alone. The 2007 film being a master class on this point.

I'm genuinely curious why you feel Bay directing this would have made a difference.

For one, it would have been a different film. The difference between Spielberg producing TF and actually directing it. I personally have way too much respect for the actual title of director to over look such things the way countless people seem to.
Secondly, selling someone as the director vs just the producers invokes the full power of their draw vs just some portion of it. I've seen this happen numerous times with the Berg himself, Cameron and even Chris Nolan.

 

[rashad]

Domestic: $167,684,505 59.9% +
Foreign: $112,100,000 40.1%
= Worldwide: $279,784,505
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=tmnt2013.htm

 

[ironman_rick]

Wow...this film is really showing some legs. The 2nd reason why studios should try to release their big-budgeted movies in non-May/June/July months (the 1st reason being GOTG).


1) Domestic Gross: $181,041,491
2) Worldwide Gross: $319,941,491

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

^The movie has done really well, no matter what some detractors may say, Paramount will consider this a win, hence why they have announced the sequel. Add to this the fact it will make more at the BO both domestic and WW (I think it will do really well in the UK when it comes out here, know loads of people who used to love the Turtles as a kid) and then home sales to follow, this has been a real success story for the studio.

 

[LostSon88]

Ah the days when the haters thought (hoped?) this movie would completely bomb…

A 185-190 (potential) domestic finish is pretty damn solid.

 

[Lord]

Are we complaining about haters again? Realy?