MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Lightning Strykez!]

Damn. I would not want to be Kevin Feige tonight. I’m calling it now: I think change is coming to Marvel. Iger is not going to continue tolerating this downward trajectory. And sadly, It’s not even about the fans and what we want. It’s about shareholders lining their pockets and those pockets became very swollen from Marvel’s previous reign at the box office. It’s clear to me that Feige has lost to plot with the MCU—and not just because of what’s been happening with this year’s Marvel films. It’s the entirety of the brand’s performance across the board—TV and film. Where is it all leading? No one really can answer that. Why? Because the cohesion is gone.

And one of the ways to manage PR damage is to “make a change.”

 

[psylockolussus]

MCU second weekend (North America)
$147,383,211 Endgame
$114,774,810 Infinity War
$111,658,835 Black Panther
$103,052,274 Avengers
$96,809,328 Deadpool & Wolverine
$84,548,505 No Way Home
$77,746,929 Age of Ultron
$72,637,142 Civil War
$72,525,615 Iron Man 3
$67,988,130 Captain Marvel
$66,482,266 Wakanda Forever
$65,263,492 Vol. 2
$62,008,548 Volume 3
$61,755,804 Multiverse of Madness
$57,078,306 Ragnarok
$52,041,005 Iron Man 2
$51,190,629 Iron Man
$46,632,172 Love and Thunder
$45,353,359 Far from Home
$44,205,210 Homecoming
$42,970,065 Doctor Strange
$38,695,752 First Steps
$36,586,016 Dark World
$34,703,035 Thor
$34,701,070 Legend of the Ten Rings
$32,390,811 Thunderbolts
$31,964,803 Quantumania
$29,097,859 Ant-Man and the Wasp
$28,170,093 Brave New World
$26,850,128 Eternals
$25,847,496 Black Widow
$25,554,303 First Avenger
$24,909,332 Ant-Man
$22,136,060 Incredible Hulk
$10,120,589 Marvels

MCU second weekend drop (North America)
78.1% Marvels
69.9% Quantumania
68.3% Brave New World
67.8% Black Widow
67.7% Love and Thunder
67.5% No Way Home
67.1% First Steps
67.0% Multiverse of Madness
63.3% Wakanda Forever
62.3% Eternals
62.2% Homecoming
61.6% Ant-Man and the Wasp
60.7% First Avenger
60.1% Incredible Hulk
59.5% Civil War
59.4% Iron Man 2
59.4% Age of Ultron
58.7% Endgame
58.4% Iron Man 3
57.3% Dark World
56.5% Ant-Man
56.4% Thunderbolts
55.7% Captain Marvel
55.5% Vol. 2
55.5% Infinity War
54.2% Deadpool & Wolverine
54.0% Legend of the Ten Rings
53.5% Ragnarok
51.0% Far from Home
50.3% Avengers
49.5% Doctor Strange
48.1% Iron Man
47.6% Volume 3
47.2% Thor
44.7% Black Panther

 

[Stark Bauer]

It'll make 500m. 280-290 domestica. 240-260m OS.

I see it ending up with 300 million domestic and 250ish international for a total of 550 million

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I see it ending up with 300 million domestic and 250ish international for a total of 550 million

Not sure how it makes it to 300m domestic after this drop. Next weekend should be over 50% again, with the loss of PLFs and two openers expected to combine for over 50m at least.

 

[psylockolussus]

At least $250 million domestic. I didn't think it was gonna hit $300 million, given how a lot of these films are frontloaded.

 

[Silvermoth]

I’m just going to say what we’re all thinking. The movie would not be underperforming if Mole Man had been the main villain not Galactus.

People are gay for Mole Man.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I’m just going to say what we’re all thinking. The movie would not be underperforming if Mole Man had been the main villain not Galactus.

People are gay for Mole Man.

He's burrowed his way into all our hearts.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

4.5 Monday. Pushes domestic to 201.6.

 

[psylockolussus]

First Fantastic 4 film to cross the 200 million mark in North America! 4th time's a charm!

 

[Spider-Fan]

Is that a good number?

 

[psylockolussus]

Its down about 60% from last Monday (10.4 million).

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Is that a good number?

The only one in the top 6 to drop in the 60s, even with a Canadian holiday. The rest were 55-57.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The only one in the top 6 to drop in the 60s, even with a Canadian holiday. The rest were 55-57.

Hoping it picks up this weekend. Even if unlikely.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Hoping it picks up this weekend. Even if unlikely.

Anything is possible, but this weekend is going to be tough. Going to lose a lot of it's PLFs and it has a pair of flicks (Weapons and Freakier Friday) which will open over 50m combined. Chance it's decently higher then that, with both flicks being potential break outs.

The weekend after, it should stabilize. No more big swings to worry about. Should have a pretty clear outlook from there. But honestly, this movie seems to be extremely fan heavy. Just not a lot of GA engagement.

Just happy it has seemingly pleased those fans and we should be getting F4 2. Strong reception and it's doing well enough.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Anything is possible, but this weekend is going to be tough. Going to lose a lot of it's PLFs and it has a pair of flicks (Weapons and Freakier Friday) which will open over 50m combined. Chance it's decently higher then that, with both flicks being potential break outs.

The weekend after, it should stabilize. No more big swings to worry about. Should have a pretty clear outlook from there. But honestly, this movie seems to be extremely fan heavy. Just not a lot of GA engagement.

Just happy it has seemingly pleased those fans and we should be getting F4 2. Strong reception and it's doing well enough.

Really only thing that will cure the lack of engagement from non fans is going to be Avengers Doomsday/Secret Wars and the FF having a good showing in there and getting a bump from it. I also think Marvel should put Human Torch as the SM5 crossover character. Get those audiences interested in the FF so FF2 can get that bump next go around

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Really only thing that will cure the lack of engagement from non fans is going to be Avengers Doomsday/Secret Wars and the FF having a good showing in there and getting a bump from it. I also think Marvel should put Human Torch as the SM5 crossover character. Get those audiences interested in the FF so FF2 can get that bump next go around

I'm of two minds with the Avengers flicks. I worry that they cause folks to bask in the nostalgia to the point that is all they want. It's what I fear might've happened with Deadpool and Wolverine. But yeah, crossovers need to happen on the regular again. Always working for Spidey.

That said, Marvel could also help itself by not having 3 movies come out within 5 months of each other for no reason. We had one last year, and it worked out. Give these movies some time to breath. To be hyped.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I'm of two minds with the Avengers flicks. I worry that they cause folks to bask in the nostalgia to the point that is all they want. It's what I fear might've happened with Deadpool and Wolverine. But yeah, crossovers need to happen on the regular again. Always working for Spidey.

That said, Marvel could also help itself by not having 3 movies come out within 5 months of each other for no reason. We had one last year, and it worked out. Give these movies some time to breath. To be hyped.

Yes, they absolutely need to space these out better. Having 2 in the summer isn't necessarily bad. They have done the May and July thing before. But having them from Feb to May to July on top of coming out after another CBM from the other team....need to space that out better

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yes, they absolutely need to space these out better. Having 2 in the summer isn't necessarily bad. They have done the May and July thing before. But having them from Feb to May to July on top of coming out after another CBM from the other team....need to space that out better

Yeah, usually May to July would be fine. But at the moment they aren't hot, so I think a bit more space in general would help unless you know both are going to be big. Would be fine with Spidey and Avengers. This was two new team debuts. Even if one was a group of folks we already know.

 

[psylockolussus]

Fantastic Four Fails? Why Marvel Struggles For Footing Post-‘Endgame’

The box office disappointment of "Fantastic Four" helps explain the larger problem Marvel Studios has faced lately at the box office, and how to protect the MCU's future.

www.forbes.com

Forbes is making this look like a total bomb. I can't!

 

[Galactus123]

I’m just going to say what we’re all thinking. The movie would not be underperforming if Mole Man had been the main villain not Galactus.

People are gay for Mole Man.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Fantastic Four Fails? Why Marvel Struggles For Footing Post-‘Endgame’

The box office disappointment of "Fantastic Four" helps explain the larger problem Marvel Studios has faced lately at the box office, and how to protect the MCU's future.

www.forbes.com

Forbes is making this look like a total bomb. I can't!

I haven't read the article (it's Forbes, why would I) but the blurb says disappointment, not bomb. And it is a disappointment. Why is the question.

 

[psylockolussus]

They called it a failure.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

They called it a failure.

Okay, so you didn't read it. I did, because damnit, I had to know. And after pages of explaining why F4 isn't at fault for it's box office issues, this is the only reference of failure tied to F4:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps failed to become an MCU summer blockbuster tentpole as hoped and expected by many of us, for a host of reasons having nothing to do with the film’s quality or even the marketing, the latter both looking and being perfect for any time other than the past 18 months.

And yes, it failed to become an MCU summer blockbuster tentpole.

 

[psylockolussus]

Updated international box office:
$20,551,711 UK/Ireland
$20,386,315 Mexico
$10,166,907 France
$9,171,304 Brazil
$8,130,825 Australia
$7,071,108 Italy
$6,338,929 Spain
$5,794,934 Germany
$5,439,200 China

The rest are under $5 million.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I'm of two minds with the Avengers flicks. I worry that they cause folks to bask in the nostalgia to the point that is all they want. It's what I fear might've happened with Deadpool and Wolverine. But yeah, crossovers need to happen on the regular again. Always working for Spidey.

That said, Marvel could also help itself by not having 3 movies come out within 5 months of each other for no reason. We had one last year, and it worked out. Give these movies some time to breath. To be hyped.

I agree, but I think Marvel had filmed a lot of “junk” before Iger dropped the hammer and told them to knock it off and cut back on the quantity. For a while there, they were just pumping out so much and it was overwhelming the base. So, I feel they had to just go ahead and release Agatha, Echo, Ms.?Marvel, Cap 4, Thunderbolts, She-Hulk and other projects because the production money was spent already. The problem is, no one asked for Echo. Or Ironheart. Or even Thunderbolts.

It’s like a candidate running for political office. Marvel has been going to the far left/far right of its audience, giving us content we don’t really want just to fill up their production calendar. What they need to do is run to the center: Give the base the core Marvel characters they care about: Avengers, X-Men, Fantastic Four, Hulk, Spider-Man, etc. They exhausted the goodwill of the audience by inundating them with the other noise, and now folks have tuned out when the FF have finally arrived. This is a strategy failure on their part—just really poor planning.