MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Nightshift]

Are you unaware that Jean can get pregnant? That the X-Men are constantly hunted by the military and other contracted military forces? That they are fighting for civil rights as a minority? I'm getting the vibe you might not actually have ever read or seen anything with the X-Men.

Nothing needs to be implied with you. You said it openly.

Ok cool. I don't really care about what you think of me. Keep cherry picking and misconstruing things. I see no merit in continuing this with you and your merry friends. The box office reflects the missing focus in recent Marvel projects at that's all that matters. 61% drop for F4 in the second week speaks volumes.

 

[Snow Queen]

Course I do.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

the misogynist is dead.

 

[Sithborg]

That would require an in-depth analysis. I'll write one up at some point. In short, setting them in modern day might lead to misrepresenting real character struggles that were way more prevalent in the 60s-90s. It would be a controversial, toxic, and divisive film. You might run the risk or erasing or misrepresenting lived experiences of real marginalized people. Today’s audiences want more honest, specific, and inclusive storytelling, not just metaphors that skate around hard truths. Setting it in the 80s core themes of prejudice, identity, and social conflict would be more effective and would have a better chance to be well received. Again, just an opinion,

By this reason, science fiction should have become irrelevant. As much of sci-fi's strengths is to provide message by metaphor. Do you think Andor would be as highly praised as it was if the use of metaphor was not used. That calling direct wrongs is more important than using metaphor to lead audiences to a conclusion?

And the key thing, when it pertains to the X-men, is that the metaphor is allowed to shift and grow with the world. To limit it to some specific time period outside is wrong. In the 80s, you give the Friends of Humanity the armbands of the Klan and neo Nazis. In modern day, you give them a ****ing red hat.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

What were the forecast heads estimating for First Steps haul this weekend? Are we way off?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

By this reason, science fiction should have become irrelevant. As much of sci-fi's strengths is to provide message by metaphor. Do you think Andor would be as highly praised as it was if the use of metaphor was not used. That calling direct wrongs is more important than using metaphor to lead audiences to a conclusion?

And the key thing, when it pertains to the X-men, is that the metaphor is allowed to shift and grow with the world. To limit it to some specific time period outside is wrong. In the 80s, you give the Friends of Humanity the armbands of the Klan and neo Nazis. In modern day, you give them a ****ing red hat.

Oh, he definitely hates Andor.

 

[blueharvest]

What were the forecast heads estimating for First Steps haul this weekend? Are we way off?

I think it's supposed to earn around $18 million this weekend.

 

[Sithborg]

What were the forecast heads estimating for First Steps haul this weekend? Are we way off?

Early guesses were around $14-15. I would watch how Weapons and Freakier does. If they are going up from the long range projections I saw, it might not be good for FF.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What were the forecast heads estimating for First Steps haul this weekend? Are we way off?

I think it's supposed to earn around $18 million this weekend.

Early guesses were around $14-15. I would watch how Weapons and Freakier does. If they are going up from the long range projections I saw, it might not be good for FF.

Anywhere between 14m and 18m sounds right. We can't be sure how the loss of most of it's PLF showings and the two new openers opening over 65m combined will effect F4. I would think not good but you never know.

What will be more interesting is the OS holds this weekend.

 

[psylockolussus]

214,912,709, already outgrossed Venom, Venom: Let There Be Carnage and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.

385,197,068, already outgrossed Thunderbolts* globally.

I voted <500 million in the poll.

 

[Fincher]

My gut instinct is that the MCU is going to go light on the oppression theme as they sell it on character work that the Fox movies didn't have. I could be wrong about that, but I think it's unlikely that it'll be a deep dive or provocative film like some might want it to be.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

My gut instinct is that the MCU is going to go light on the oppression theme as they sell it on character work that the Fox movies didn't have. I could be wrong about that, but I think it's unlikely that it'll be a deep dive or provocative film like some might want it to be.

I sadly agree. Hoping we get offshoots, with other characters/teams that can do it properly.

 

[psylockolussus]

Box Office: ‘Freakier Friday’ and ‘Weapons’ Battle for First Place Over ‘Fantastic Four’

It could be a close race for first place at the box office as "Freakier Friday" and "Weapons" target similar debuts.

variety.com

This was posted last Wednesday.

It doesn't look encouraging if 18 to 20 million doesn't hold up, and they get 14 million. So I really think this wouldn't cross the 500 million mark worldwide. North America is scoring most of the numbers and its dropping big for the 2nd/3rd weekend over there. For the 4th weekend and the rest of its run, the numbers won't be just enough to push it through to 500 million.

I'm guessing updated international this weekend, would put it over 420 to 435 million? Still needs 65 million for the rest of its run. Domestic daily tallies would start plumetting to $1.5 million next week, since Thursday's tally was already at 2.9 million.

 

[Mr. Peanut]

Also, aside from the wrong timing of its release, Black Widow the movie giving Yelena her introduction would have been more useful to Thunderbolts, if only Thunderbolts didn't come out almost 4 years since Black Widow the movie. Between the release of Black Widow and Thunderbolts, there were also other 8 MCU movies.

The lack of strategy and hindsight are just not very wise, and they are going to still deal with the ramifications of phase4/5 for years to come.

Not to mention the fact that that the stinger at the end of Black Widow has no direct connection to Thunderbolts, instead that plot thread is wrapped up in a Disney+ show. Think about that...the only stinger in the entire Multiverse Saga so far that has actually been followed up on, yet it's followed up on in a Disney+ show that most people didn't watch, while the next movie to feature the character has nothing to do with it.

 

[psylockolussus]

Not to mention the fact that that the stinger at the end of Black Widow has no direct connection to Thunderbolts, instead that plot thread is wrapped up in a Disney+ show. Think about that...the only stinger in the entire Multiverse Saga so far that has actually been followed up on, yet it's followed up on in a Disney+ show that most people didn't watch, while the next movie to feature the character has nothing to do with it.

I'm not sure if many from the general public still remembered Yelena from Black Widow the movie and her guest appearance in Hawkeye, when they watched Thunderbolts. Sam/Bucky also had their own show and both already appeared in Civil War, Endgame, Infinity War and Winter Soldier yet more people watched Fantastic 4, probably because Fantastic 4 looked more appealing.

I really don't think giving supporting characters their own movie to lead was a good idea in the first place. Then I found out the "budget" for those movies (180 million), I thought they were much cheaper ($100million to $150 million).

 

[DarthSkywalker]

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Looking like a 15m weekend. Another drop around 60%. 280m looking like the ceiling domestically now.

 

[Spider-Fan]

What's the international?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What's the international?

Won't know until tomorrow.

 

[psylockolussus]

$219,412,709, finally outgrossed X2 and Ant-Man and the Wasp (North America).

 

[DarthSkywalker]

214,912,709, already outgrossed Venom, Venom: Let There Be Carnage and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.

385,197,068, already outgrossed Thunderbolts* globally.

I voted <500 million in the poll.

$219,412,709, finally outgrossed X2 and Ant-Man and the Wasp (North America).

In less then 24 hours we've gone from, "already outgrossed" to "finally outgrossed".

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

So...I finally went to see Superman last night. Honestly? I really enjoyed it. And, if I'm being fair and objective, it does have a higher rewatchability factor as a summer popcorn flick when compared to First Steps. Why? Put simply, because it had tons of action--lots of knock-down-drag-em-out fight scenes from beginning to end. There was destruction porn and huge explosions. And that's exactly what audiences want out of a summer blockbuster. The Superman film looked and felt like a Marvel summer movie (which is not surprising considering that Gunn literally took every cinematic nuance--and even actors!--he used for the Guardians and recycled them for Superman).

All that said...we really shouldn't be comparing the Superman and Fantastic Four films at all. The remits for both films were very different. First Steps is actually a better-looking film, with far more convincing, solid performances from the actors. Superman relies more heavily on spectacle and shock value. Both are excellent and deliver beautifully in their own ways. But the FF were never going to be the "knock-down-drag-em-out" type of heroes like Superman. This movie's ticket sales are less than spectacular because the WOM is that the film is "great but boring." Well, "boring" compared to what? Boring compared to two other movies that immediately preceded First Steps and were chockful of action sequences--in typical summer blockbuster fashion. However, the Fantastic Four are scientists and explorers first and foremost, and First Steps 100% nailed this aspect of who they are. Therefore, anyone who says that First Steps is "lacking action" actually lacks an understanding of who the Fantastic Four are.

In my opinion, Kevin Feige & Co. completely misread the room here. Now that I've seen all three films, I'm convinced that Marvel/ Disney made a grave mistake in placing First Steps 2 weeks behind Superman and Jurassic World. It was a huge misstep for First Steps (see what I did there ), because it wasn't designed to be a summer popcorn flick. It is (appropriately!) a sci-fi drama that should have been slated for an early Spring or Holiday box office release.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

multiplier is day 15 cume divided by first weekend

 

[Sithborg]

So...I finally went to see Superman last night. Honestly? I really enjoyed it. And, if I'm being fair and objective, it does have a higher rewatchability factor as a summer popcorn flick when compared to First Steps. Why? Put simply, because it had tons of action--lots of knock-down-drag-em-out fight scenes from beginning to end. There was destruction porn and huge explosions. And that's exactly what audiences want out of a summer blockbuster. The Superman film looked and felt like a Marvel summer movie (which is not surprising considering that Gunn literally took every cinematic nuance--and even actors!--he used for the Guardians and recycled them for Superman).

All that said...we really shouldn't be comparing the Superman and Fantastic Four films at all. The remits for both films were very different. First Steps is actually a better-looking film, with far more convincing, solid performances from the actors. Superman relies more heavily on spectacle and shock value. Both are excellent and deliver beautifully in their own ways. But the FF were never going to be the "knock-down-drag-em-out" type of heroes like Superman. This movie's ticket sales are less than spectacular because the WOM is that the film is "great but boring." Well, "boring" compared to what? Boring compared to two other movies that immediately preceded First Steps and were chockful of action sequences--in typical summer blockbuster fashion. However, the Fantastic Four are scientists and explorers first and foremost, and First Steps 100% nailed this aspect of who they are. Therefore, anyone who says that First Steps is "lacking action" actually lacks an understanding of who the Fantastic Four are.

In my opinion, Kevin Feige & Co. completely misread the room here. Now that I've seen all three films, I'm convinced that Marvel/ Disney made a grave mistake in placing First Steps 2 weeks behind Superman and Jurassic World. It was a huge misstep for First Steps (see what I did there ), because it wasn't designed to be a summer popcorn flick. It is (appropriately!) a sci-fi drama that should have been slated for an early Spring or Holiday box office release.

I think he just picked the wrong date. He bet on being able to bring back the Marvel box office. Partially successful with a OW over $100 million. But, at the end of the month with 2 other big blockbuster action movies, the available money to go was less. And he was on a ticking clock, because more and more schools are going to be starting up, which is going to decimate the weekdays. Already lost the PLF screens.

We have to see how Spider-man does to see if anything happens to Doomsday.

 

[psylockolussus]

Yeah like I've said before, May would have been a better month. Its unfortunate it keeps having 60%+ drops post-2nd weekend. In comparison to Brave New World's 3rd Friday, it had a 51% drop from its 2nd Friday and Thunderbolts was 53.1%. First Steps has 61.4% 3rd Friday drop.