MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[blackdragon6]

Marvel definitely needs to shake things up a little when it comes to their formulas.

BADLY..... But people don't want to hear this.

 

[blackdragon6]

My gut instinct is that the MCU is going to go light on the oppression theme as they sell it on character work that the Fox movies didn't have. I could be wrong about that, but I think it's unlikely that it'll be a deep dive or provocative film like some might want it to be.

This is why some was worried about the franchise being put in the MCU.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah like I've said before, May would have been a better month. Its unfortunate it keeps having 60%+ drops post-2nd weekend. In comparison to Brave New World's 3rd Friday, it had a 51% drop from its 2nd Friday and Thunderbolts was 53.1%. First Steps has 61.4% 3rd Friday drop.

Why would of May been a better month?

 

[Sithborg]

BADLY..... But people don't want to hear this.

You then enter into the conversation that the new CEO is definitely going to be having, which is why Feige is pulling the panic button over Doomsday/Secret Wars. Because what is the best way to shake up Marvel Studios if they are having issues....

The irony is that Feige is partly in this situation because he took his eyes off of Marvel Studios, and trying to make moves to get a promotion.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

You then enter into the conversation that the new CEO is definitely going to be having, which is why Feige is pulling the panic button over Doomsday/Secret Wars. Because what is the best way to shake up Marvel Studios if they are having issues....

The irony is that Feige is partly in this situation because he took his eyes off of Marvel Studios, and trying to make moves to get a promotion.

Remember he was going to make a Star Wars movie.

 

[psylockolussus]

Why would of May been a better month?

Fewer competition.

 

[Sithborg]

Fewer competition.

Do remember May? I assume you are wanting to replace Thunderbolts with FF, since that is you MO about movies you don't care for. Lets look at the first weekend of May. Straight off the bat, it runs right into Sinners. Sinners weekend 3 is doing more business than Superman weekend 3. Yeah, it would have a bit of a better weekend 2, but then it runs right into a similar situation with Final Destination and then followed by Lilo & Stitch and Mission Impossible.

Some other thoughts. Release date would not have salvaged the international numbers. I think we have enough evidence of that. I also doubt that they would have been able to get above $100 million ow if they did the first weekend of may. July "primed the pump" as it were, with quite a few big, blockbusters to get people back to the theaters during their summer vacation. Plus, you know, Disney is spreading its advertising time and budget among the marvel film and the real money maker, Lilo and Stitch.

 

[psylockolussus]

Do remember May? I assume you are wanting to replace Thunderbolts with FF, since that is you MO about movies you don't care for. Lets look at the first weekend of May. Straight off the bat, it runs right into Sinners. Sinners weekend 3 is doing more business than Superman weekend 3. Yeah, it would have a bit of a better weekend 2, but then it runs right into a similar situation with Final Destination and then followed by Lilo & Stitch and Mission Impossible.

Some other thoughts. Release date would not have salvaged the international numbers. I think we have enough evidence of that. I also doubt that they would have been able to get above $100 million ow if they did the first weekend of may. July "primed the pump" as it were, with quite a few big, blockbusters to get people back to the theaters during their summer vacation. Plus, you know, Disney is spreading its advertising time and budget among the marvel film and the real money maker, Lilo and Stitch.

Agree to disagree. Superman is a big competition for the Fantastic 4 worldwide. Sinners isn't an international box office hit. Fantastic 4 also opened with big local films in countries like Japan and South Korea, which may have hurt its performance in those countries.

I doubt Fantastic 4 would have a bigger 2nd/3rd weekend drop in May than we are witnessing now. So that automatically would have made it a better release month.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Agree to disagree. Superman is a big competition for the Fantastic 4 worldwide. Sinners isn't an international box office hit. Fantastic 4 also opened with big local films in countries like Japan and South Korea, which may have hurt its performance in those countries.

I doubt Fantastic 4 would have a bigger 2nd/3rd weekend drop in May than we are witnessing now. So that automatically would have made it a better release month.

The drop would've been no different. Without comp, it dropped hard. It would've then had to deal with two movies that are going to finish WW higher then it. Including the highest grossing film of the summer,

 

[GreenKToo]

Hindsight is 20/20 but in my opinion, galactus should have been set up to be the main big bad in the two upcoming avenger films.
The F4 earth should have been destroyed with reed saving as many people as he could at the end with the portal(s)

Victor von Doom would have been the last one through. ( crawls through one in a post credit scene, badly burned by all the carnage )

Galactus sees where they escaped to and makes plans to follow. Easy peasy.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What are the odds this adjust down, again?

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

The drop would've been no different. Without comp, it dropped hard. It would've then had to deal with two movies that are going to finish WW higher then it. Including the highest grossing film of the summer,

Meh. I do think placing it in such proximity to Superman resulted in unnecessary competition. The internet has been ablaze for weeks with fans comparing the two films—which has ultimately led to bad buzz for both, but arguably more for F4 because MCU haters are jumping on anything remotely negative about its box office take, exaggerating it and then spreading it with memes, etc. Example: When was the last time you saw fans and trades make such a big deal about an 80% drop between Fridays? People then took that number out of context, and ran with it into the entire weekend being an 80% drop. Casual fans read that and then stay away. If F4 was several weeks or months apart from Superman, it would’ve given both films room to breathe against other films in counter programming.

Imagine a studio releasing Wicked two weeks before another genre heavyweight like Harry Potter. They’re naturally gonna cannibalize each other. It’s just a dumb ass move.

 

[GreenKToo]

I think it did fine all things considered.

 

[Lily Adler]

View attachment 144343

the misogynist is dead.

The FemiNazi girl bossin' the thread.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The gap between F4 and Supes OS has grown after this weekend. Supes was around 213m at this point:

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Meh. I do think placing it in such proximity to Superman resulted in unnecessary competition. The internet has been ablaze for weeks with fans comparing the two films—which has ultimately led to bad buzz for both, but arguably more for F4 because MCU haters are jumping on anything remotely negative about its box office take, exaggerating it and then spreading it with memes, etc. Example: When was the last time you saw fans and trades make such a big deal about an 80% drop between Fridays? People then took that number out of context, and ran with it into the entire weekend being an 80% drop. Casual fans read that and then stay away. If F4 was several weeks or months apart from Superman, it would’ve given both films room to breathe against other films in counter programming.

Imagine a studio releasing Wicked two weeks before another genre heavyweight like Harry Potter. They’re naturally gonna cannibalize each other. It’s just a dumb ass move.

Wicked's audience would do fine against a Harry Potter movie.

F4 is about to be the first MCU movie to drop 60% in it's second and third weekend. Not even Quantumania did that. With no comp. And no, Supes isn't hurting it anymore then Sinners would've done domestically, and nothing else is hurting it the way Lilo and Stitch and M:I would've hurt it overall.

 

[lenz]

Meh. I do think placing it in such proximity to Superman resulted in unnecessary competition. The internet has been ablaze for weeks with fans comparing the two films—which has ultimately led to bad buzz for both, but arguably more for F4 because MCU haters are jumping on anything remotely negative about its box office take, exaggerating it and then spreading it with memes, etc. Example: When was the last time you saw fans and trades make such a big deal about an 80% drop between Fridays? People then took that number out of context, and ran with it into the entire weekend being an 80% drop. Casual fans read that and then stay away. If F4 was several weeks or months apart from Superman, it would’ve given both films room to breathe against other films in counter programming.

Imagine a studio releasing Wicked two weeks before another genre heavyweight like Harry Potter. They’re naturally gonna cannibalize each other. It’s just a dumb ass move.

It's not like Superman is anything special this summer (or basically ever at the box office). I think it had an impact, but not massive. The bigger issue is inflation and genre fatigue in general. As you stated earlier, FF is not really a traditional summer crowd-pleaser (like Superman), but more in the traditional sci-fi vein. Before the release I thought it was a mistake Marvel didn't go with the November date, but it likely wouldn't have made a difference after seeing the film. I get great joy watching First Steps, but I'm also a tad bias being a massive FF fan.

 

[Spider-Fan]

It's only about 65 globally away from 500, and I think it will clear that. The drop % isn't great, obviously. But I still think the movie has done alright all things considered. As I have said this entire time, I don't care if it makes a billion. I care if we get FF2, and it is looking like we will.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It's only about 65 globally away from 500, and I think it will clear that. The drop % isn't great, obviously. But I still think the movie has done alright all things considered. As I have said this entire time, I don't care if it makes a billion. I care if we get FF2, and it is looking like we will.

It will happen, but what it is? We'll see. These drops are the kind that effect future stuff. Because it shows either people really not liking it or being completely disinterested. Either of which signals a need for change.

 

[Spider-Fan]

It will happen, but what it is? We'll see. These drops are the kind that effect future stuff. Because it shows either people really not liking it or being completely disinterested. Either of which signals a need for change.

They're going to be prominently featured in 2 upcoming Avengers movies and even with struggles, still their 3rd best performer since Phase 5 started. Also gotta remember it's a non sequel, and it's closer in line with the gross of non sequels.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

They're going to be prominently featured in 2 upcoming Avengers movies and even with struggles, still their 3rd best performer since Phase 5 started. Also gotta remember it's a non sequel, and it's closer in line with the gross of non sequels.

They did not spend non-sequel money on this, and people are not liking it. I can't emphasize it enough. The drops show apathy at best, dissatisfaction at worse.

I know we all assume the Avengers movies will do big business. They most likely will. Whether people like them is completely up in the air. More importantly, why they like them. Because right now, they don't like the F4.

 

[Spider-Fan]

They did not spend non-sequel money on this, and people are not liking it. I can't emphasize it enough. The drops show apathy at best, dissatisfaction at worse.

I know we all assume the Avengers movies will do big business. They most likely will. Whether people like them is completely up in the air. More importantly, why they like them. Because right now, they don't like the F4.

I dont work for Disney, Marvel, etc. I am a guy that watches movies and I enjoyed this movie and hopefully there will be a sequel. Nothing I say in this debate will change if there will be or not. We simply have to see. But in general, this forum has just been nothing but negativity recently. So, I think I am stepping back from these debates. I feel like I have to constantly apologize for being optimistic. And I am not doing so anymore. Others can enjoy the misery. I am just going to sit back and wait and see. Better for my mental health and this stuff just isn't fun

 

[lenz]

It's only about 65 globally away from 500, and I think it will clear that. The drop % isn't great, obviously. But I still think the movie has done alright all this considered. As I have said this entire time, I don't care if it makes a billion. I care if we get FF2, and it is looking like we will.

I have a hard time getting excited for a FF sequel even though I love the film because if we are going to get a reboot I want a full clean slate under brand new leadership.

Whenever Feige teases what's coming in the future, none of it sounds appealing to me and I just want him to move on to something like Star Trek. I think a lot of people feel the same way.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I dont work for Disney, Marvel, etc. I am a guy that watches movies and I enjoyed this movie and hopefully there will be a sequel. Nothing I say in this debate will change if there will be or not. We simply have to see. But in general, this forum has just been nothing but negativity recently. So, I think I am stepping back from these debates. I feel like I have to constantly apologize for being optimistic. And I am not doing so anymore. Others can enjoy the misery. I am just going to sit back and wait and see. Better for my mental health and this stuff just isn't fun

For what it's worth, I do think there will be a sequel. That isn't in contention imo. But this feels like The Dark World situation. Where what comes next will be very different. But maybe it always was going to be with whatever world we end up with post-Avengers.

Sorry this stuff is bringing you down. I wish it wasn't.

 

[Spider-Fan]

For what it's worth, I do think there will be a sequel. That isn't in contention imo. But this feels like The Dark World situation. Where what comes next will be very different. But maybe it always was going to be with whatever world we end up with post-Avengers.

Sorry this stuff is bringing you down. I wish it wasn't.

Assuming they end up in the proper MCU post Secret Wars, I think we can assume that it was always going to be different. But different doesn't mean bad. Just means different.

I also think one thing that was an inherent disadvantage that many didn't factor in is that the 60 setting may have been a turn off for some people. Which is a disadvantage they wouldn't have in a sequel set in the MCU. Period movies can be a turn off some for some people for big blockbusters like this.

We will see what the new normal is post DD/SW. But I still expect those movies to help to some extent as long as they aren't brand damagingly toxic.