MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Lightning Strykez!]

They did not spend non-sequel money on this, and people are not liking it. I can't emphasize it enough. The drops show apathy at best, dissatisfaction at worse.

I know we all assume the Avengers movies will do big business. They most likely will. Whether people like them is completely up in the air. More importantly, why they like them. Because right now, they don't like the F4.

Where are you getting this from? People clearly love the film. The question is how much? Are they loving it enough to rewatch it 2, 3, 6 times? If it’s to go back to the theater for those sophisticated action sequences that audiences expect from other summer popcorn flicks, then FF is the wrong stop for them. And I agree that it’s also facing other headwinds (lack of interest, the Disney+ streaming feature, higher inflation/ ticket costs vs. more important family expenses from kids on vacation/ going back to school soon, etc.) The WOM on First Steps—from the majority of those who actually saw it—has always been positive. There’s something else afoot here.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Where are you getting this from? People clearly love the film. The question is how much? Are they loving it enough to rewatch it 2, 3, 6 times? If it’s to go back to the theater for those sophisticated action sequences that audiences expect from other summer popcorn flicks, then FF is the wrong stop for them. And I agree that it’s also facing other headwinds (lack of interest, the Disney+ streaming feature, higher inflation/ ticket costs vs. more important family expenses from kids on vacation/ going back to school soon, etc.) The WOM on First Steps—from the majority of those who actually saw it—has always been positive. There’s something else afoot here.

It's legs are that of a movie that has generated poor WOM. It's holding worse then Quantumania. The issue here isn't repeat viewings (though those seem low) but a lot of good WOM that gets other people to go and watch it. I feel like at best you'd be arguing for is, "it's alright but Superman was better".

The WOM you see online is fan based. It's not the GA. Which can and has been vastly different in the past.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I dont work for Disney, Marvel, etc. I am a guy that watches movies and I enjoyed this movie and hopefully there will be a sequel. Nothing I say in this debate will change if there will be or not. We simply have to see. But in general, this forum has just been nothing but negativity recently. So, I think I am stepping back from these debates. I feel like I have to constantly apologize for being optimistic. And I am not doing so anymore. Others can enjoy the misery. I am just going to sit back and wait and see. Better for my mental health and this stuff just isn't fun

Please don’t step back. Remember, 99% of everyone here is on the same page—we all want The Fantastic Four to notch a genuine win. Not a win just for the fans in our circles—we want the general public to finally discover the magic of what makes these characters so special to us.

In that sense, I am always optimistic. But I am also very observant and objective. It’s important for Marvel to figure out things that could potentially further damage this franchise. Currently, we are seeing the lingering results of 20 years of Fox mismanaging the FF, and there’s some “PTSD” for some of us. First Steps is climbing an uphill battle to overcome poor studio decisions from the past.

I think the “negativity” you’re sensing is merely frustration from others—including myself—who just want this property done right. The good news is so much has been done right with First Steps. We know that. Now we’re discussing the factors why the casual moviegoer isn’t catching on.

 

[psylockolussus]

$230,412,709, outgrossed Big Hero 6, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and Logan in North America.

$434,212,709, outgrossed Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Eternals, X2, The Wolverine, Captain America: Brave New World and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings globally.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

It's legs are that of a movie that has generated poor WOM. It's holding worse then Quantumania. The issue here isn't repeat viewings (though those seem low) but a lot of good WOM that gets other people to go and watch it. I feel like at best you'd be arguing for is, "it's alright but Superman was better".

The WOM you see online is fan based. It's not the GA. Which can and has been vastly different in the past.

Yes. But it could also be that general audiences simply haven’t separated this film from the 3 other FF films that preceded it. Perhaps to the public, this is just “another FF film” and they have negative associations with the franchise as a whole.

We have to remember that 15-20 years ago, all three of the FOX FF films received horrible critical reviews, poor Cinemascores, and experienced huge box office drops (I will not acknowledge the 20 year olds who are now saying online that the Jessica Alba FF films of their childhoods were “peak”—they were NOT well-received for those of us who were in our twenties and thirties at the time!). FOX made the franchise pretty tepid and they utterly destroyed any remaining goodwill with audiences with Fant4stic.

What happens last is often remembered first, as they say. So perhaps it’s a guilt by association thing?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yes. But it could also be that general audiences simply haven’t separated this film from the 3 other FF films that preceded it. Perhaps to the public, this is just another FF film and they have negative associations with the franchise as a whole.

We have to remember that 15-20 years ago, all three of those FF films received horrible critical reviews, poor Cinemascores, and experienced huge box office drops (I will not acknowledge the 20 year olds who are now saying online that the Jessica Alba FF films of their childhoods were “peak”—they were NOT well-received for those of us who were in our twenties and thirties at the time!).

So perhaps it’s a guilt by association thing?

The movie came out. People can talk about it. They are. And it's numbers are very much inline with recent MCU fare that the GA just didn't like or care about. Including my beloved Thunderbolts.

So maybe it's guilt by association. To the MCU.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

The movie came out. People can talk about it. They are. And it's numbers are very much inline with recent MCU fare that the GA just didn't like or care about. Including my beloved Thunderbolts.

So maybe it's guilt by association. To the MCU.

This franchise had three previous mediocre films at FOX. None of them made box office gains like First Steps is bringing in now.

Trust me, we would not be seeing a possible $500M-plus global tally now if it weren’t for the film’s connection to the MCU.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Considering the franchise’s previous three mediocre films at FOX, we would not be seeing a possible $500M-plus global box office gain now if it weren’t for the film’s connection to the MCU.

Just so we're clear, the 2005 movie sold more tickets then this one.

But also, if that's the argument, then you can't go blaming the old F4 movies if people see this as an MCU flick.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Just so we're clear, the 2005 movie sold more tickets then this one.

But also, if that's the argument, then you can't go blaming the old F4 movies if people see this as an MCU flick.

The tickets sold metric I think is vastly overrated. Movie going wasn't the same in the mid 2000s. The rate of ticket prices has increased more drastically than inflation, and streaming and such kill box office runs faster. Man of Steel has sold more tickets than Superman has, by that same token. The 2005 movie also had the novelty of being the 1st FF movie.

I hate it as a stat also cause it assumes the same people that paid to see the 2005 FF movie like...8 bucks would also be willing to pay closer to 20 today for the same. That tickets sold number would go way down at current ticket prices. This also works both ways. If tickets were 2005 prices, how many MORE does First Steps sell? Neither how many fewer or more are answerable questions. Which is why I find the stat overall irrelevant

Also, I would say the 1st movie, which did get a sequel, was a success at the time. Just like I don't think it is doom and gloom on First Steps. It's not even just the 3 bad movies FOX made. Marvel devalued their own property by canceling their comic and effectively killing their marketability in merchandise and such for several years. So there is a massive element of brand fixing that they have to do outside of general MCU struggles.

 

[Sithborg]

What are the odds this adjust down, again?

Like it has the past 2 weekends? I say, follow the pattern.

The gap between F4 and Supes OS has grown after this weekend. Supes was around 213m at this point:

Its going to be a crawl over $500.

For what it's worth, I do think there will be a sequel. That isn't in contention imo. But this feels like The Dark World situation. Where what comes next will be very different. But maybe it always was going to be with whatever world we end up with post-Avengers.

Sorry this stuff is bringing you down. I wish it wasn't.

If anything, probably a good chance that FF2 won't perform like TSS, as I am getting big SS vibes from these numbers...

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The tickets sold metric I think is vastly overrated. Movie going wasn't the same in the mid 2000s. The rate of ticket prices has increased more drastically than inflation, and streaming and such kill box office runs faster. Man of Steel has sold more tickets than Superman has, by that same token. The 2005 movie also had the novelty of being the 1st FF movie.

I hate it as a stat also cause it assumes the same people that paid to see the 2005 FF movie like...8 bucks would also be willing to pay closer to 20 today for the same. That tickets sold number would go way down at current ticket prices.

Also, I would say the 1st movie, which did get a sequel, was a success at the time. Just like I don't think it is doom and gloom on First Steps. It's not even just the 3 bad movies FOX made. Marvel devalued their own property by canceling their comic and effectively killing their marketability in merchandise and such for several years. So there is a massive element of brand fixing that they have to do outside of general MCU struggles.

Discount Tues (and at AMC Wed) have incredibly inflated midweek movie going because it's like you're going to the movies a decade ago.

My point with the tickets sold are to point out you can't argue it's dollar total is thanks to the MCU while then blaming the old F4 movies for the same dollar amount, which are in line with it in terms of tickets sold. I do agree the 2005 film was a success, but that just emphasizes why it's a bad argument to blame those movies. Even Silver Surfer did decently by these standards.

Though I also think ticket sales are definitely needed for context at times, especially across eras. You can't contexutalize the success of something like Superman the Movie or Star Wars without it. I'm one who'd argue MOS was a box office success, though setup that universe on shaky ground. That got completely destroyed by BvS, which again, was a box office success, but clearly not one that could be built on. F4's legs suggest something similar. It's trending like the OG Suicide Squad. Like Quantumania.

For me it's the drops that are concerning rather then the raw total.

 

[Sithborg]

Where are you getting this from? People clearly love the film. The question is how much? Are they loving it enough to rewatch it 2, 3, 6 times? If it’s to go back to the theater for those sophisticated action sequences that audiences expect from other summer popcorn flicks, then FF is the wrong stop for them. And I agree that it’s also facing other headwinds (lack of interest, the Disney+ streaming feature, higher inflation/ ticket costs vs. more important family expenses from kids on vacation/ going back to school soon, etc.) The WOM on First Steps—from the majority of those who actually saw it—has always been positive. There’s something else afoot here.

I am getting big Suicide Squad vibes from these numbers. You don't drop during these weekend estimates like this movie has if the WOM is actually good. We will call it lukewarm. And lukewarm doesn't bring in the numbers.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Discount Tues (and at AMC Wed) have incredibly inflated midweek movie going because it's like you're going to the movies a decade ago.

My point with the tickets sold are to point out you can't argue it's dollar total is thanks to the MCU while then blaming the old F4 movies for the same dollar amount, which are in line with it in terms of tickets sold. I do agree the 2005 film was a success, but that just emphasizes why it's a bad argument to blame those movies. Even Silver Surfer did decently by these standards.

Though I also think ticket sales are definitely needed for context at times, especially across eras. You can't contexutalize the success of something like Superman the Movie or Star Wars without it. I'm one who'd argue MOS was a box office success, though setup that universe on shaky ground. That got completely destroyed by BvS, which again, was a box office success, but clearly not one that could be built on. F4's legs suggest something similar. It's trending like the OG Suicide Squad. Like Quantumania.

For me it's the drops that are concerning rather then the raw total.

To a degree, sure tickets sold can provide context. But if say...Star Wars came out now, I cannot see it doing the same at the BO. Other Star Wars movies have made over a billion, sure. But those were sequels to the existing IP. If Star Wars itself had come out now, I don't think it's effect is the same. Back then, only way to see it for years was in a theater and only whenever it was re-released. It wasn't until several years after it home media became a thing.. same for Gone With the Wind. There is no way it sells the tickets it did today. This is why I look at everything as in its own era and its own circumstance. ie, what it cost to make, how much it made, etc.

I would be very much willing to say if First Steps came out in 2016. Same movie, no changes, it probably adds about 100-200 mil to its BO take. But that also ultimately doesn't matter. The result is the result. We will see how Doomsday/Secret Wars change the game and what happens from here onward. That's going to be more telling than anything we are arguing here.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

The tickets sold metric I think is vastly overrated. Movie going wasn't the same in the mid 2000s. The rate of ticket prices has increased more drastically than inflation, and streaming and such kill box office runs faster. Man of Steel has sold more tickets than Superman has, by that same token. The 2005 movie also had the novelty of being the 1st FF movie.

I hate it as a stat also cause it assumes the same people that paid to see the 2005 FF movie like...8 bucks would also be willing to pay closer to 20 today for the same. That tickets sold number would go way down at current ticket prices. This also works both ways. If tickets were 2005 prices, how many MORE does First Steps sell? Neither how many fewer or more are answerable questions. Which is why I find the stat overall irrelevant

Also, I would say the 1st movie, which did get a sequel, was a success at the time. Just like I don't think it is doom and gloom on First Steps. It's not even just the 3 bad movies FOX made. Marvel devalued their own property by canceling their comic and effectively killing their marketability in merchandise and such for several years. So there is a massive element of brand fixing that they have to do outside of general MCU struggles.

This.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Just so we're clear, the 2005 movie sold more tickets then this one.

But also, if that's the argument, then you can't go blaming the old F4 movies if people see this as an MCU flick.

I think both can be factors working against this film at the same time. It’s a collective headwind. When you consider all of these negatives together, the fact that First Steps is even looking at $500M globally is a remarkable achievement in itself.

The Fantastic Four is in a very unique position compared to any other CBM franchise right now.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Discount Tues (and at AMC Wed) have incredibly inflated midweek movie going because it's like you're going to the movies a decade ago.

My point with the tickets sold are to point out you can't argue it's dollar total is thanks to the MCU while then blaming the old F4 movies for the same dollar amount, which are in line with it in terms of tickets sold. I do agree the 2005 film was a success, but that just emphasizes why it's a bad argument to blame those movies. Even Silver Surfer did decently by these standards.

Though I also think ticket sales are definitely needed for context at times, especially across eras. You can't contexutalize the success of something like Superman the Movie or Star Wars without it. I'm one who'd argue MOS was a box office success, though setup that universe on shaky ground. That got completely destroyed by BvS, which again, was a box office success, but clearly not one that could be built on. F4's legs suggest something similar. It's trending like the OG Suicide Squad. Like Quantumania.

For me it's the drops that are concerning rather then the raw total.

Sooo…you’re just going to skip the immediate predecessor to this film? The one that had a 9% RT score and made something like $50M domestically? If you’re going to blame the failures of recent MCU films for this one underperforming, then you have to use the same metric with the FOX films which have literal franchise connections to First Steps.

I’d place the word “moderate” in front of your usage of “success”. The previous FF movies weren’t hits. And their collective reputational damage to the franchise can’t be understated. People are giving First Steps another chance because of its connection to the MCU.

 

[Moncton]

It's always tough to compare eras, we can look at all the valid issues facing films now, but there has never been a time where a film can so easily promote itself either via social media or the many podcasts that the stars can go on etc. I think if someone said before F4 came out that it would at best barely make over $500 million, most would have viewed that as disappointing. However, if you enjoyed the film you shouldn't feel down considering the characters are coming back.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

To a degree, sure tickets sold can provide context. But if say...Star Wars came out now, I cannot see it doing the same at the BO. Other Star Wars movies have made over a billion, sure. But those were sequels to the existing IP. If Star Wars itself had come out now, I don't think it's effect is the same. Back then, only way to see it for years was in a theater and only whenever it was re-released. It wasn't until several years after it home media became a thing.. same for Gone With the Wind. There is no way it sells the tickets it did today. This is why I look at everything as in its own era and its own circumstance. ie, what it cost to make, how much it made, etc.

I would be very much willing to say if First Steps came out in 2016. Same movie, no changes, it probably adds about 100-200 mil to its BO take. But that also ultimately doesn't matter. The result is the result. We will see how Doomsday/Secret Wars change the game and what happens from here onward. That's going to be more telling than anything we are arguing here.

What? The cinema landscape is completely different if Star Wars doesn't exist. What Lucas and Spielberg did in the 70s and 80s is the only reason we have summer blockbusters. It's the kind of "What If" that completely changes the industry.

And context within it's release is key. Nothing touches Star Wars when it came out. Same as nothing touched Gone with the Wind. Both had records that stood for decades.

But I feel like this is all ignoring my point. F4 has bad legs. Legs of movies most would consider very bad. If you want to say F4 now is in the same place in it's era as the 05 movie is fine. F4 is struggling mightily in it's own era.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think both can be factors working against this film at the same time. It’s a collective headwind. When you consider all of these negatives together, the fact that First Steps is even looking at $500M globally is a remarkable achievement in itself.

The Fantastic Four is in a very unique position compared to any other CBM franchise right now.

Sooo…you’re just going to skip the immediate predecessor to this film? The one that had a 9% RT score and made something like $50M domestically? If you’re going to blame the failures of recent MCU films for this one underperforming, then you have to use the same metric with the FOX films which have literal franchise connections to First Steps.

I’d place the word “moderate” in front of your usage of “success”. The previous FF movies weren’t hits. And their collective reputational damage to the franchise can’t be understated. People are giving First Steps another chance because of its connection to the MCU.

How was the 2005 F4 movie not at least a moderate success? It made 333m on a budget with a range between 87-100m. Either number is well over 3x it's budget. F4 2025 is not doing that.

Superman has been dumped on for decades at this point. His last 2 movies die untold damage. DC as whole, outside of Batman, has been dumped on for decades. Both it and F4 started at similar numbers after the opening weekend. One has had decent legs, the other is having worse legs then Quantumania.

At what point is that down to the movies themselves?

 

[lenz]

There is also an entire cottage industry of social media commentators whose sole purpose is to bring these films down. That doesn't just divide fandom with narratives, but exacerbates the already growing fatigue among fans and casuals. Part of the fun with these films in the past was the online communities that generated excitement for the next entry.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I hate this type of verbiage cause it assumes something is "wrong" with the movie or that it is objectively bad and therefore why it's failing. The truth is more complicated. All that is going on is the general audience isn't seeing it in the same rate as pre Endgame MCU movies or Superman. Good movies flop all the time. Bad movies also often still succeed despite reviews. Transformers had multiple billion dollar films despite awful reviews and generally being hated by like....everyone I have ever known that has seen them. And yet, 2 billion dollar films.

I guess this is why I hate these kind of debates. Cause we are valuing movies solely by if they made money or not, and using them not doing so as proof of bad quality. The movie isn't landing with audiences like it did critics and such for any number of reasons, but it annoys me when we do this type of debate cause the obvious implication is its failing cause it sucks. That may not be the intent if the argument. But it is what I am reading

 

[Mr. Peanut]

I think this film is alot like Captain America TFA, being a period piece with a similar vibe that came out immediately prior to a big crossover...though in TFA's case we'd never gotten an Avengers crossover before, while with First Steps it's been so long since the last Avengers film (and more importantly, we've had so much content since then) that people have reverted to pre-Avengers interest levels. So, pretty comparable.

Cap 1 made 370 million. Then after Avengers and a drastic change in tone and setting, Cap 2 made 714 million. Then after Avengers 2 and with a bunch of crossovers, Cap 3 made over a billion.

Cap didn't just spawn into the world with a billion dollar film, the MCU had to earn it by building up the universe around him properly.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

There is also an entire cottage industry of social media commentators whose sole purpose is to bring these films down. That doesn't just divide fandom with narratives, but exacerbates the already growing fatigue among fans and casuals. Part of the fun with these films in the past was the online communities that generated excitement for the next entry.

The MCU use to set this up. The way they've been vaguely walking into random directions without sequels for years now, has not helped this. I don't even think the quality of their movies have been that bad. I prefer a lot since the pandemic. But everything is aimless. What's to grab onto?

I think this film is alot like Captain America TFA, being a period piece with a similar vibe that came out immediately prior to a big crossover...though in TFA's case we'd never gotten an Avengers crossover before, while with First Steps it's been so long since the last Avengers film (and more importantly, we've had so much content since then) that people have reverted to pre-Avengers interest levels. So, pretty comparable.

Cap 1 made 370 million. Then after Avengers and a drastic change in tone and setting, Cap 2 made 714 million. Then after Avengers 2 and with a bunch of crossovers, Cap 3 made over a billion.

Cap didn't just spawn into the world with a billion dollar film, the MCU had to earn it by building up the universe around him properly.

Cap 1 had a 2.7x multiplier domestically. F4 is looking like sub 2.5x.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The MCU use to set this up. The way they've been vaguely walking into random directions without sequels for years now, has not helped this. I don't even think the quality of their movies have been that bad. I prefer a lot since the pandemic. But everything is aimless. What's to grab onto?


Cap 1 had a 2.7x multiplier domestically. F4 is looking like sub 2.5x.

In this regard, FF has the most to grab onto. Cause the Thunderbolts and FF ones will ACTUALLY go somewhere

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

There is also an entire cottage industry of social media commentators whose sole purpose is to bring these films down. That doesn't just divide fandom with narratives, but exacerbates the already growing fatigue among fans and casuals. Part of the fun with these films in the past was the online communities that generated excitement for the next entry.

Exactly. I was saying this for weeks on this forum as a potential fear I had for this movie’s WOM.

Every time I log into FB, IG, Threads, etc., I’m greeted with some colorful click-bait “fact” from someone denouncing FF using exaggerated statements like “First Steps Craters With 80% 2nd Weekend Drop”. You scroll down and there are dozens of fans in the comments duking it out with others over what it is clearly a misrepresentation of the facts.

Now, I understand that I’M gonna see all of these posts because of my algorithms, but it doesn’t cancel out the fact these posts do indeed go viral. They spread to the general audience. The first FOX FF films simply didn’t exist in the same social media environment with bots, etc.—at least not at the level we have to contend with now.