Official Spider-Man 3 Box Office Thread - Predictions and Forecasts

[Carp Man]

STOP DASHING MY HOPES AND DREAMS!!! IT STILL HAS ABOUT TWO MORE MONTHS LEFT IN THEATERS AND I UNDERSTAND THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE IN LESS AND LESS THEATERS!!! I'M FACTORING THAT IN, BUT TWO MONTHS IS A LONG TIME, I THINK IT CAN DO IT, I COULD BE WRONG, BUT I'M HOPEFUL!!!up:

It's neither here nor there. Next Friday, the end of the world is near. t: The "G" Man could make WOTW look like a folk dance.

 

[The Guardian]

Only if there is a massive heat wave coming that drives people to see anything and everything. t:

JUST CALL ME THE HUMAN TORCH!!!DDup:

 

[Visionary]

Even though Spidey 3 is doing really well. Domestically it won't even come close to the first two.


it's pretty much tapped out already.

Just like SM1/SM2 didn't come close to SM3 overseas. It beat the previous movies overseas/worldwide, you can't have everything.

 

[The Guardian]

It's neither here nor there. Next Friday, the end of the world is near. t: The "G" Man could make WOTW look like a folk dance.

LOL, TEH POOPHY CLOUD, THAT SADDENS ME!!! BUT I STILL CAN'T WAIT TO SEE IT!!!up:

 

[hammerhedd11]

Even though Spidey 3 is doing really well. Domestically it won't even come close to the first two.


it's pretty much tapped out already.

Well it's doing well seeing as how it's the third movie.

 

[Mauser9910]

For what it's worth, the last update I've read for France mentionned over 6 millions tickets sold for Spider-Man 3 since May 1st. Pirates, which opened on May 22nd, is at 3,6 millions tickets (the article also said it took quite a plunge in its seconde week of exploitation).

 

[Carp Man]

June 08, 2007

EXCLUSIVE EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES: Weakest 'Ocean's' yet w/$12M Friday - $34.3M for the weekend; 'Surf's Up' soft w/$5M Friday - $15.2M OW; 'Hostel' tanks w/$3M Friday - $7.3M OW

by Steve Mason

The fourth “three-quel” of the summer is anything but a charm for Hollywood, as Ocean’s Thirteen (Warner Bros) has opened to an underwhelming $12M Friday, which should translate to a disappointing $34.3M. If the number holds, this will be the worst opening of the Ocean’s franchise, trailing Ocean’s Eleven ($38.1M) and Ocean’s Twelve ($39.1M).


Although not a disaster, this is well below industry expectations. My sources have been telling me that the picture scored solidly in industry tracking with Un-Aided Awareness of 11% and a Total Aware of 95%. Definite Interest is a very strong 50% (Males Under 25 at 53%, Males 25 Plus at 50%, Females Under 25 at 43% and Females 25 Plus at 52%) and 16% of moviegoers surveyed described Ocean’s as their First Choice this weekend (Males Under 25 at 17%, Males 25 Plus at 16%, Females Under 25 at 11% and Females 25 Plus at 19%). $40M has been a foregone conclusion, and more than a few industry types, including yours truly, were looking for a $50M opening.

Maybe moviegoers are already burned out on sequels. Or possibly, people have a bad taste in their mouth from the poorly received Ocean’s Twelve. Several of my sources has pointed out that the marketing campaign feels very “been there, done that.” Was there really much innovation in the posters, trailers, commercials, etc.? The campaign certainly didn’t break any new ground. And, there’s always the possibility that guys like George Clooney and Brad Pitt are cooler in LA and NY than they are in Red State America. Maybe their lavish lifestyles and liberal politics have alienated folks in the middle of the country. Guys like Bill O’Reilly have certainly done their best to demonize even a likable lib like Clooney.
Despite the weaker-than-expected opening, Ocean’s Thirteen is still the 3rd-best opening of director Steven Soderbergh’s career.

Unfortunately for the film industry, the other two new releases are also major disappointments. Sony’s Surf’s Up has managed only an estimated $5M to start the weekend, and the 3-day will likely be approximately $15.2M. It’s no small feat to release a computer-animated talking animal movie in the heart of the summer season and deliver numbers this soft.
Surf’s Up is Sony’s third recent animated release, and the weakest of the trio.

Meanwhile, the once-highly-anticipated Eli Roth project Hostel II (Lionsgate) is a flat-out bomb. Originally set for release in January, Lionsgate now probably wishes that they had stuck with the original plan. This picture is getting “slaughtered” in the marketplace (which seems somehow fitting) with just $3M on Friday and a likely $7.3M for the weekend.

On the bright side, Pirates of the Caribbean 3: At World’s End (Buena Vista) finished 2nd on Friday with an estimated $6.2M and, with an expected $21.4M for the weekend representing a decent 52% drop, it’ll surpass $250M by Monday morning. Knocked Up (Universal), fueled by strong word-of-mouth, added $6M Friday and that will likely translate to a very solid $19.4M for the weekend. That’s a great hold, down just 37%, and it’ll put the hilarious Judd Apatow comedy over the $50M mark. Finally, Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) grabbed $4.2M to start the weekend, and it’s probably headed for a 4th place finish with $15.6M down by just 44%.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Ocean’s Thirteen (Warner Bros) - $12M [$12M cume]
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) - $6.2M [$238.5M cume]
3. Knocked Up (Universal) - $6M [$52.2M cume]
4. Surf’s Up (Sony) - $5M [$5M cume]
5. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $4.2M [$270.3M cume]
6. Hostel II (Lionsgate) - $3M [$3M cume]
7. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $1.25M [$322.5M cume]


EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Ocean’s Thirteen (Warner Bros) - $34.3M [$34.3M cume]
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) - $21.4M [$253.7M cume]
3. Knocked Up (Universal) - $19.4M [$65.6M cume]
4. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $15.6M [$281.7M cume]
5. Surf’s Up (Sony) - $15.2M [$15.2M cume]
6. Hostel II (Lionsgate) - $7.3M [$7.3M cume]
7. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $4.43M [$325.7M cume]

 

[TLH]

Well, despite that they are early estimates, $4.5 million is a decent weekend gross for Spidey 3 so long as it holds true.

 

[lordofthenerds]

Shrek 3 is starting to look like a box office threat. Spidey 3 only pulled in 14.3M on its fourth weekend.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Ocean's tanked. LOL Actually it's not really that funny because Piracy is so much more severe this year compared to last. Some of these movies are online before they are in the theatres. I wish I could reach through my computer monitor and choke these people as it's hurting everyone including us with higher ticket prices and studios are slower to move on sequels. Some movies online right now don't come out for a couple weeks. Hostel 2 was an obvious bomb. I think that franchise peaked when the 1st one came out. The studio should have realized this with Grindhouse...it's just not the types of films people swarm too. Should have gone direct to DVD.

 

[Weadazoid]

Shrek 3 is starting to look like a box office threat. Spidey 3 only pulled in 14.3M on its fourth weekend.

Shreck is about to see it's first real CGI cartoon threat of the season and turst me when I say this it will probubly come in behind surfs up with I'll guess 13 to 12 Million for the weekend.

 

[Advanced Dark]

Surf's up was a good film too. I have to admit it was funny.

 

[DarthAlani]

Shrek 3 will have its legs cut by surfs up and that new pixar movie. Otherwise it would probaly pass spidey do to the little kid factor. The movie ain't very good.

 

[lordofthenerds]

Shreck is about to see it's first real CGI cartoon threat of the season and turst me when I say this it will probubly come in behind surfs up with I'll guess 13 to 12 Million for the weekend.

Well, not according to those estimates, or SBD's. Surf's Up looks like it bombed big time.

 

[TLH]

Shrek 3 is starting to look like a box office threat. Spidey 3 only pulled in 14.3M on its fourth weekend.

But Spidey 3 was at $303 million after its fourth weekend. Shrek 3 would only be at $281 million. That's a $22 million difference. Also Spidey 3 is growing some legs. It only dropped about 26% during the weekday, and this weekend it looks like it will only be down about 40%.

 

[Carp Man]

Fridays estimates are in. Updates below.

 

[Visionary]

SM3 will hit 850 million worldwide after Saturday numbers are in...and still counting, damn.

 

[DarbyD53]

BoxOfficeMojo is reporting Knocked Up did better Friday numbers than Pirates, which is crazy. I know this is a Spider-Man thread but I can't stand the Pirate fans who thought they'd own Spider-Man this year. I can't believe how good Distrubia is doing still. Spider-Man got 1.2 friday and it got 750,000 still after coming out what? 2-3 weeks ahead of Spider-Man

Here's to wishing Spider-Man gets to 350

 

[ultimatefan]

But Spidey 3 was at $303 million after its fourth weekend. Shrek 3 would only be at $281 million. That's a $22 million difference. Also Spidey 3 is growing some legs. It only dropped about 26% during the weekday, and this weekend it looks like it will only be down about 40%.

Plus Shrek 3 is about to lose a lot of the territory it won on monday because that was when Spidey 3 had its holiday push. The difference will get back to around 25/26 mil.

 

[GL's Light]

Ocean's 13 looks to be another summer film that will perform somewhat below expectations domestically, but will likely see strong enough numbers from international markets to end up with a reasonably successful worldwide total. But I think Clooney, Pitt, et al, have milked the series of its last drop.

I haven't seen any actual numbers mentioned yet, but reportedly the tracking for Transformers is already huge.

 

[Carp Man]

June 09, 2007

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE: 'Ocean's' limping so a sub-$35M weekend?; 'Pirates' and 'Knocked Up' tight for 2nd; 'Surf's Up' drowning; 'Hostel' dead; 'La Vie En Rose' to easily win PTA race

by Steve Mason

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: My Ocean’s Thirteen (Warner Bros) Friday projection was $12M, and Box Office Mojo has just announced $12.1M. Show Biz Data and Variety had been kicking around some slightly higher numbers (Warner Bros spin?), but the number is as underwhelming as I thought. I’m sticking with $34.3M for my early 3-day estimate. Knocked Up (Universal) and Pirates 3 (Buena Vista) are in a virtul dead-heat for 2nd followed by a depressing $5.1M for Sony’s Surf’s Up (I projected a $5M Friday last night).

Industry folks are scratching their heads this morning. Why didn’t Ocean’s Thirteen meet industry expectations? Industry tracking pointed to a possible $50M opening for this well-reviewed, high-end commercial caper movie loaded with star power, so how did the movie under-perform?

The “sequel fatigue” is one possible answer. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) and Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) opened bigger than their predecessors, but Pirates 2 opened well below Pirates 3 and now Ocean’s Thirteen scores the weakest opening of the Ocean’s franchise. Are America’s moviegoers saying, “Give us something new!” If so, studio execs should be very nervous with movies like Fantastic Four 2 (Fox), Live Free or Die Hard (Fox), Harry Potter 5 (Warner Bros), Rush Hour 3 (New Line) etc. still on the way. Or maybe, it’s the “Shut Up & Sing effect.”

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Ocean’s Thirteen (Warner Bros) - $34.3M [$34.3M cume]
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) - $21.4M [$253.7M cume]
3. Knocked Up (Universal) - $19.4M [$65.6M cume]
4. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $15.6M [$281.7M cume]
5. Surf’s Up (Sony) - $15.2M [$15.2M cume]
6. Hostel II (Lionsgate) - $7.3M [$7.3M cume]
7. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $4.43M [$325.7M cume]

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/06/saturday_mornin_1.html

Note : Folks want something new ? I think the Silver Surfer will fill the bill nicley. A silver guy flying around on a surfboard, reaking havoc all over the earth ? Oh yea.

 

[Pickle-El]

Carpy,

I think they are directly looking AT sequels underperforming this summer....

'Something new and shiny for the people out there! Yet..........in a sequel.'

That's the spinner I know from the FF boards!

 

[Carp Man]

Carpy,

I think they are directly looking AT sequels underperforming this summer....

'Something new and shiny for the people out there! Yet..........in a sequel.'

That's the spinner I know from the FF boards!

We'll see in 6 days. t:

 

[CPL]

i cant wait until fantastic four 2 fails miserably

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

i cant wait until fantastic four 2 fails miserably

It wont fail. It's designed to entertain the Summer movie crowd (i.e. Young kids and teen-agers), and will do so.

Unfortunately, one of the greatest comic book stories of all time is getting raped in the process, but hey; at least Fox will make some money, right? So what do I know?