Official Spider-Man 3 Box Office Thread - Predictions and Forecasts

[ultimatefan]

Meh I would disagree I thought the second one was pretty good.

The incredibles wasn't a movie based on a famous comic that had a bunch of die hard fan's rejecting it because it was to kid friendly. It was a kid movie that appealed to both adults and kids alike it had not previous fan base what so ever so there were no complaints about it not being adult enough or not being a perfect copy of a comic book issue.

It appealed to both kids and adults because it was smart and well-done as much as it was family-friendly. Which is what I think the FF franchise should have done. Kids love the Spidey movies and Harry Potter movies and most fans of the source like the movies.

 

[Stupify_me]

It appealed to both kids and adults because it was smart and well-done as much as it was family-friendly. Which is what I think the FF franchise should have done. Kids love the Spidey movies and Harry Potter movies and most fans of the source like the movies.

Meh if you say so. I thought FF2 was well done most of the crying i have heard have either been "WAA Galactus isn't actually shown in the movie" or "BOo Hoo It's not serious"

 

[spider-neil]

TF has harry potter coming out a week later? OUCH!!
the new harry potter book comes out the same month. OUCH!!!

 

[spider-neil]

I understand that 300M is not something that happens that often but im tellin you, maybe i can find the article again, the early box office tracking (basically a survey that they do with moviegoers nationwide) for transformers is calling it a "juggernaut." i believe that is the word they used. I know i dont speak for the world or anything, but nearly every single person i know is seeing this movie in the first few days it's out, and many are already saying theyre seeing it multiple times. a lot of those are people that didnt go see spiderman3, pirates3, or shrek3. Like i said tho, thats just the people i know, hardly the nation. But transformers is definitely sounding like it's gonna be HUGE.

worldwide tracking had SM3 making over a billion.
its one thing to take a survey or gather data but people pushing money into their pocket to pay money is quite another especially if they have to choose which movie to watch as there is so match competition.
there may well be families holding off for one week because they can't afford to bring the kids to TF AND HP. would 'that' data show up in a survey

 

[Stupify_me]

worldwide tracking had SM3 making over a billion.
its one thing to take a survey or gather data but people pushing money into their pocket to pay money is quite another especially if they have to choose which movie to watch as there is so match competition.
there may well be families holding off for one week because they can't afford to bring the kids to TF AND HP. would 'that' data show up in a survey

Ha well said everytime a movie I want to see comes out I start talking trash like "I'm gonna see this s *it like 15 times" and then I watch it once because i'm broke.

 

[spider-neil]

Ha well said everytime a movie I want to see comes out I start talking trash like "I'm gonna see this s *it like 15 times" and then I watch it once because i'm broke.

also almost certainly (what a weird expression that is, its either certain or it isn't the phrase 'almost certainly' is a contridiction in terms )

side tracked myself there t: almost certainly POTC would have tracked at over 400M domestically but anyone with any sense would have told you that people would still be seeing spidey and then would see shrek therefore there was NO WAY it was going to do more than 400M

it the same for TF, that movie may well be tracking as a 'juggernaugt' but for me it patently obvious that HP is going to hit it HARD when it comes out a week later, anticipation for the new book (end of july) is at fever pitch and families will want to satiaite(sp) that hunger 'somehow' so they will watch potter in their DROVES anyone who thinks this isn't going hurt TF BO is deluded.

 

[Stupify_me]

also almost certainly (what a weird expression that is, its either certain or it isn't the phrase 'almost certainly' is a contridiction in terms )

side tracked myself there t: almost certainly POTC would have tracked at over 400M domestically but anyone with any sense would have told you that people would still be seeing spidey and then would see shrek therefore there was NO WAY it was going to do more than 400M

it the same for TF, that movie may well be tracking as a 'juggernaugt' but for me it patently obvious that HP is going to hit it HARD when it comes out a week later, anticipation for the new book (end of july) is at fever pitch and families will want to satiaite(sp) that hunger 'somehow' so they will watch potter in their DROVES anyone who thinks this isn't going hurt TF BO is deluded.

The week before TF comes out the Rat movie and Live Free Or Die hard both come out so they will still be strong in the theaters. The same week TF comes out the new ROBIN WILLIAMS comedy comes out it may not hurt TF much but you can't deny that it will at least knock a little bit of money off the opening. Then the week after TF comes out we will have Harry Potter which is a movie with arguablly a much much bigger fan base than transformers and even it struggles with 300M

Following that week
Chuck and Larry - Adam Sandler and Kevin James numbers are expected to be almost as high as wedding Crashers which is high for a comedy.

The next week you have
Skinwalkers - A movie with pretty good hype it will be lucky to break 100M but still will be strong for it's genre oh and a little movie you may of heard about called THE SIMPSONS

Follow that week.
Underdog and the new Bourne movie. Underdog will be popular with kids and older adults for nostalgia it will probably just barely make 100M and Bourne will do very well.

An i'll end it here with the next week
RUSH HOUR 3 - Like it or hate it either way Rush Hour has equaled money in the past and it will again.

Transformers does not get one week that it gets a break. The movie WILL NOT break 300 million unless the die hard fanatics that want to see this (trash) Film have a couple hundred thousand each to waste on watching this over and over again. So if you really want it to make the 300M mark make sure you tell on the guys on the Transformers message board to go watch themovie 923 times while it's in the theaters oh and 32 times in the dollar theater to be safe.


Also lets not forget that he said it's going to be huge and we arn't disagreeing here. 200M is huge 300M is beyond that. All we are saying is that it will not hit 300M.

300M HELL NO
250M Maybe. It's possible
200M Probably
150 Guaranteed minimum almost

Most people would consider any movie to be Huge.

By the way from boxofficemojo.com It's not exactly a scientific polll but it does at least hold a little water. I won't give the entire list just until it hits Transformers

What is your most anticipated movie of 2007?
21.4% Spider-Man 3
16.9% Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
12.4% Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
8.3% 300
6.3% The Simpsons
6.1% Transformers


300 was voted as more anticipated and it came in with just barely over 200M also notice that Harry Potter and The simpsons are both listed above it. Like I said it's not scientific and it's only like 5K people voting on it but I think it does show something.

 

[spider-neil]

The week before TF comes out the Rat movie and Live Free Or Die hard both come out so they will still be strong in the theaters. The same week TF comes out the new ROBIN WILLIAMS comedy comes out it may not hurt TF much but you can't deny that it will at least knock a little bit of money off the opening. Then the week after TF comes out we will have Harry Potter which is a movie with arguablly a much much bigger fan base than transformers and even it struggles with 300M

Following that week
Chuck and Larry - Adam Sandler and Kevin James numbers are expected to be almost as high as wedding Crashers which is high for a comedy.

The next week you have
Skinwalkers - A movie with pretty good hype it will be lucky to break 100M but still will be strong for it's genre oh and a little movie you may of heard about called THE SIMPSONS

Follow that week.
Underdog and the new Bourne movie. Underdog will be popular with kids and older adults for nostalgia it will probably just barely make 100M and Bourne will do very well.

An i'll end it here with the next week
RUSH HOUR 3 - Like it or hate it either way Rush Hour has equaled money in the past and it will again.

Transformers does not get one week that it gets a break. The movie WILL NOT break 300 million unless the die hard fanatics that want to see this (trash) Film have a couple hundred thousand each to waste on watching this over and over again. So if you really want it to make the 300M mark make sure you tell on the guys on the Transformers message board to go watch themovie 923 times while it's in the theaters oh and 32 times in the dollar theater to be safe.


Also lets not forget that he said it's going to be huge and we arn't disagreeing here. 200M is huge 300M is beyond that. All we are saying is that it will not hit 300M.

300M HELL NO
250M Maybe. It's possible
200M Probably
150 Guaranteed minimum almost

Most people would consider any movie to be Huge.

By the way from boxofficemojo.com It's not exactly a scientific polll but it does at least hold a little water. I won't give the entire list just until it hits Transformers

What is your most anticipated movie of 2007?
21.4% Spider-Man 3
16.9% Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
12.4% Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
8.3% 300
6.3% The Simpsons
6.1% Transformers


300 was voted as more anticipated and it came in with just barely over 200M also notice that Harry Potter and The simpsons are both listed above it. Like I said it's not scientific and it's only like 5K people voting on it but I think it does show something.

*applause*

 

[rashad]

For its part, "Spider-Man 3" remained only slightly visible in its eighth frame with $1.5 million at 2,850, lifting foreign cume to $546.8 million and worldwide to $880 million.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117967556.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

It's at $879M WW. It passed HP:CoS for 10th All Time WW.

 

[washderice]

The week before TF comes out the Rat movie and Live Free Or Die hard both come out so they will still be strong in the theaters. The same week TF comes out the new ROBIN WILLIAMS comedy comes out it may not hurt TF much but you can't deny that it will at least knock a little bit of money off the opening. Then the week after TF comes out we will have Harry Potter which is a movie with arguablly a much much bigger fan base than transformers and even it struggles with 300M

Following that week
Chuck and Larry - Adam Sandler and Kevin James numbers are expected to be almost as high as wedding Crashers which is high for a comedy.

The next week you have
Skinwalkers - A movie with pretty good hype it will be lucky to break 100M but still will be strong for it's genre oh and a little movie you may of heard about called THE SIMPSONS

Follow that week.
Underdog and the new Bourne movie. Underdog will be popular with kids and older adults for nostalgia it will probably just barely make 100M and Bourne will do very well.

An i'll end it here with the next week
RUSH HOUR 3 - Like it or hate it either way Rush Hour has equaled money in the past and it will again.

Transformers does not get one week that it gets a break. The movie WILL NOT break 300 million unless the die hard fanatics that want to see this (trash) Film have a couple hundred thousand each to waste on watching this over and over again. So if you really want it to make the 300M mark make sure you tell on the guys on the Transformers message board to go watch themovie 923 times while it's in the theaters oh and 32 times in the dollar theater to be safe.


Also lets not forget that he said it's going to be huge and we arn't disagreeing here. 200M is huge 300M is beyond that. All we are saying is that it will not hit 300M.

300M HELL NO
250M Maybe. It's possible
200M Probably
150 Guaranteed minimum almost

Most people would consider any movie to be Huge.

By the way from boxofficemojo.com It's not exactly a scientific polll but it does at least hold a little water. I won't give the entire list just until it hits Transformers

What is your most anticipated movie of 2007?
21.4% Spider-Man 3
16.9% Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
12.4% Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
8.3% 300
6.3% The Simpsons
6.1% Transformers


300 was voted as more anticipated and it came in with just barely over 200M also notice that Harry Potter and The simpsons are both listed above it. Like I said it's not scientific and it's only like 5K people voting on it but I think it does show something.

Quick question, when was that poll taken? Cuz if it's when people were anticipating 300, it had to be before that movie even came out, I think this hardly shows anything seeing as the major hype for transformers built after the more recent trailers were released showing possibly the best cgi in a movie ever.

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/06/exclusive_early_4.html

This guy is projecting 330 million (which is high) and it's his job i guess to predict stuff like this taking everything into account. I just think saying it has no chance to make 300 million is kinda strange, it definitely has a chance. Reviews are all positive, many saying this is the movie that will save the summer from all the kinda disappointing threequels, its got spielberg attached to it, its got a media blitz going on building even more hype to it, practically has best special effects locked up, etc. The guy that wrote that predicted a 7.5 imdb rating, currently it has an 8.6 (this could change once the movie gets out for sure).

Im not trying to get into a war of words or anything, Im just throwing what I think out there cuz I think to say "HELL NO" to 300 million is kinda strange, it's definitely got a chance.

 

[SLYspyder]

Quick question, when was that poll taken? Cuz if it's when people were anticipating 300, it had to be before that movie even came out, I think this hardly shows anything seeing as the major hype for transformers built after the more recent trailers were released showing possibly the best cgi in a movie ever.

I'm really not that impressed. Robots are among the easiest things to animate using CGI.

 

[washderice]

I'm really not that impressed. Robots are among the easiest things to animate using CGI.

But how many cgi robots have over 1000 moving parts at once, because these ones do. And its not just the animation, its the lighting and compositing that makes this possibly the best cgi. Some scenes took 38 hrs to render a single frame, which is absolutle insane. If you dont know about film, there is 24 frames a second, so 1/24th of a second took 38 hrs to render in some of these scenes.

 

[Darkly Dexter]

so, how much has grossed Spider-man 3 until now?

 

[GL's Light]

Actuals are in:

$ 1,237,774 (- 50.6%), for a total of $ 332,486,258 domestic.

 

[Darkly Dexter]

wow that's great

 

[Stupify_me]

Quick question, when was that poll taken? Cuz if it's when people were anticipating 300, it had to be before that movie even came out, I think this hardly shows anything seeing as the major hype for transformers built after the more recent trailers were released showing possibly the best cgi in a movie ever.

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/06/exclusive_early_4.html

This guy is projecting 330 million (which is high) and it's his job i guess to predict stuff like this taking everything into account. I just think saying it has no chance to make 300 million is kinda strange, it definitely has a chance. Reviews are all positive, many saying this is the movie that will save the summer from all the kinda disappointing threequels, its got spielberg attached to it, its got a media blitz going on building even more hype to it, practically has best special effects locked up, etc. The guy that wrote that predicted a 7.5 imdb rating, currently it has an 8.6 (this could change once the movie gets out for sure).

Im not trying to get into a war of words or anything, Im just throwing what I think out there cuz I think to say "HELL NO" to 300 million is kinda strange, it's definitely got a chance.

No chance what so ever there is nothing strange about using logic and not not ALL the reviews are positive. I urge please to search just a tiny bit more. Litterally going to yahoo you can find negative things about this movie.

Yay it has nice CGI even though the robots look like S *it. It has a terrible actor in the lead role. Bay is attached to it which = crap 95% of the time and SPielberg is honestly a 50 - 50 kind of guy not to mention the fact that his name is just barely attached to it. He had very little to do with the film they just hype his name being on it and that's all his role with this movie was bascially to make money.

I really don't think you understand what 300M means in the movie industry at all. I also don't think you understand the competition surronding this movie. To even suggest that this movie will bring in money on the same lvl as Spiderman/POTC/Shrek/ or Harry Potter is hilarious.

The script for this movie is terrible. The actors are terrible the only good thing about this film is the good technology and the hot chick that's it. It will bring in good money for the special effects not for the ****ty story.

 

[Stupify_me]

But how many cgi robots have over 1000 moving parts at once, because these ones do. And its not just the animation, its the lighting and compositing that makes this possibly the best cgi. Some scenes took 38 hrs to render a single frame, which is absolutle insane. If you dont know about film, there is 24 frames a second, so 1/24th of a second took 38 hrs to render in some of these scenes.

So good CGI makes a good film? Do we not even care about acting or story in today's society anymore?

 

[Spider-ManHero12]

I dunno....it looks pretty damn impressive.

PLUS: It already has a hell of a following.

PLUS: It has the advantage of NOT being a summer sequel, thus presenting something fresh to the summer movie crowd...

Im rooting for Spidey 3, of course, but i think some folks are being too quick to dismiss Transformers...

IMO, it takes more than just CGI effects to make a good Film. Transformers looks to be just a film all about CGI which isn't good. The Spidey Films have alot of CGI, But alot of Storyline which is a great thing. Storyline is the key to success in an action Film or any Film for that matter. The Spidey Films are amazing Films with great Action and great Storyline which is what makes them so amazing.

 

[Stupify_me]

IMO, it takes more than just CGI effects to make a good Film. Transformers looks to be just a film all about CGI which isn't good. The Spidey Films have alot of CGI, But alot of Storyline which is a great thing. Storyline is the key to success in an action Film or any Film for that matter. The Spidey Films are amazing Films with great Action and great Storyline which is what makes them so amazing.

I wish more people were like you.

I'm tried of people using amazing special effects as the only selling point for a movie. Forget the fact that this is about the friggen transformers, that Bay is in charge of this project, that the actors are not talented, or that the script is horrible. Lets just praise the effects and CGI because that's all it takes to make a good film anymore

 

[sandgoblin]

I dread Transformers coming out. Don't want to see that film. I do want the new Harry Potter movie though. I liked Spidey 3 and the Fantastic Four 2. POTC 3 was ok. not much to brag about.

 

[washderice]

So good CGI makes a good film? Do we not even care about acting or story in today's society anymore?

whoa dude, chill out. where oh where did i say that cgi made it a good film. the guy said the cgi was not impressive, i gave an explanation as to why it was impressive. no where in what i posted did i equate good cgi to a good film.

 

[Stupify_me]

whoa dude, chill out. where oh where did i say that cgi made it a good film. the guy said the cgi was not impressive, i gave an explanation as to why it was impressive. no where in what i posted did i equate good cgi to a good film.

First off man I wasn't freaking out at all so there is no reason for me to "Chill out" as you put it. You were gushing about the CGI and it seems as though it's the main reason you are bothering with it at all.

 

[SLYspyder]

But how many cgi robots have over 1000 moving parts at once, because these ones do. And its not just the animation, its the lighting and compositing that makes this possibly the best cgi. Some scenes took 38 hrs to render a single frame, which is absolutle insane. If you dont know about film, there is 24 frames a second, so 1/24th of a second took 38 hrs to render in some of these scenes.

Uh huh. Let's just assume that ALL the action scenes in Transformers total up to 3 min. By your numbers, it should take almost 7000 days to render those 3 minutes. Somehow, I doubt it took them 20 years to make the movie. Nice try though.

 

[washderice]

Uh huh. Let's just assume that ALL the action scenes in Transformers total up to 3 min. By your numbers, it should take almost 7000 days to render those 3 minutes. Somehow, I doubt it took them 20 years to make the movie. Nice try though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNHezf1B5_g

You can watch the transformers press conference for yourself if you dont believe me.

Im guessing you don't know much about rendering. There are these things called render farms, and you can bet that dreamworks has a massive one. What these do is render different frames out on different machines. As they finish you can take all of those frames and add them together to get your scene. So you're not sitting there for 38 hrs and just getting that 1 frame, in those 38 hrs all the other machines are rendering out other frames as well. And i didnt say every scene was like that, just a few scenes were that insane to render. Watch the press conference if you want, they talk about it. I'm a visual effects and motion graphics major (which may help you understand why i am drooling over the cgi in this movie) so if you have any questions that have to do with visual effects, i may be able to answer them.

 

[Stupify_me]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNHezf1B5_g

You can watch the transformers press conference for yourself if you dont believe me.

Im guessing you don't know much about rendering. There are these things called render farms, and you can bet that dreamworks has a massive one. What these do is render different frames out on different machines. As they finish you can take all of those frames and add them together to get your scene. So you're not sitting there for 38 hrs and just getting that 1 frame, in those 38 hrs all the other machines are rendering out other frames as well. And i didnt say every scene was like that, just a few scenes were that insane to render. Watch the press conference if you want, they talk about it. I'm a visual effects and motion graphics major (which may help you understand why i am drooling over the cgi in this movie) so if you have any other questions, i may be able to answer them.

I THINK his original point was that it didn't look good. You can go in to detail about how hard it was to do and how time consuming it was, but it doesn't make one difference. I could spend 15 years on a painting but the time I spent on it doesn't make it good if it comes out looking average it comes out average either way. Personally I don't care about how long they spent on it or how hard or advanced this is all I care about is the end result and while yes the CGI looks Kind of cool I don't find it all that impressive. The bots stand out and don't look even close to being real like it's suppose to and lets not even get in to how ugly and unlike the original art it is. I mean i'm not a fan of any form of transformers even as a kid I found the idea to be ******ed, but they could of at least honored the original source. People ***** about comic movies but this is further from it's source material than any comic movie I have seen.