Ratings

[AgentPat]

Thanks for posting the numbers, Pat. Do you have any thoughts why Smallville's numbers were 20% off from last years numbers at this time? I know the numbers lower at this time of year, but they seem to have lowered even more within that parameter. Just curious...

From a completely un-scientific point of view, I blame Lexana and the lack of a consistent arc for Clark this season.

I think it's a little bit of a lot of things.

Competition:
Seems heavier now. As pathetic as it sounds, "Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader" took a serious bite out of everybody's ratings, even "Ugly Betty's." Last year, the two shows in that time slot on those networks were "That '70s Show" and "American Inventor." So yeah, big changes in options for the 8pm time slot.

Story arc:
Stepping back from the fandom, I think this year's antagonist arcs may have bored a lot of fans. The Phantom Zoners were a great way of upping the threat, but when you boil them down, they're just stronger FOTWs, and that gets monotonous. Last year, the Brainiac arc was a lot more meatier and carried over with the same character throughout the *entire* season.

This year, the overriding story arc has been Lex and Lana and a non baby.

It's by far, the most soap opera-ish the show has ever gotten. The focus isn't necessarily a bad one, but the couple in question isn't necessarily a popular one either.

Show age:
SV is getting long in the tooth. It has its dedicated fan base [raises hand] that will watch no matter what, but ratings aren't made up of 100% dedicated fans. There's a LOT of attrition; viewers come and go. The trick is hooking them so that they DO return the following week, which is hard to do with eps that aren't overwhelmingly strong or special. This plays back into story arcs and why we see a lot of stunt casting.

With increased age, the show also gets more expensive. It may be why there is less of an emphasis on promotion, which doesn't help bring in new fans - something every show wants.

Next year:
They HAVE to refocus and get the show back on a more popular track. Look at past episodes to see what drummed up the most buzz. *cough*Justice*cough*. Bring back old JLA heroes for a few eps if possible (MM is a good start). Amp up the 33.1 project and farm it for good stand-alone eps. Introduce a new nemesis like Brainiac for a recurring role (could be 33.1 related.) End the Lana/Lex marriage and get her Away. From. LEX ASAP! Get Lois working at The Planet with Olsen. Start using Lana as Clark's confidant (assuming Kreuk returns). Introduce a romantic partner for Clark (could be new or existing). Such episodes are popular with audiences (Lana, Chloe, Lois, Alicia, Kyla, Raya, etc.) and it keeps the mushy B stories (LOL!) still focused around him. And finally, for the love of Rao, include more shirtless Clark scenes!

LOL!

I think that covers it.

 

[Whiteflag]

I think it's a little bit of a lot of things.

Competition:
Seems heavier now. As pathetic as it sounds, "Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader" took a serious bite out of everybody's ratings, even "Ugly Betty's." Last year, the two shows in that time slot on those networks were "That '70s Show" and "American Inventor." So yeah, big changes in options for the 8pm time slot.

Story arc:
Stepping back from the fandom, I think this year's antagonist arcs may have bored a lot of fans. The Phantom Zoners were a great way of upping the threat, but when you boil them down, they're just stronger FOTWs, and that gets monotonous. Last year, the Brainiac arc was a lot more meatier and carried over with the same character throughout the *entire* season.

This year, the overriding story arc has been Lex and Lana and a non baby.

It's by far, the most soap opera-ish the show has ever gotten. The focus isn't necessarily a bad one, but the couple in question isn't necessarily a popular one either.

Show age:
SV is getting long in the tooth. It has its dedicated fan base [raises hand] that will watch no matter what, but ratings aren't made up of 100% dedicated fans. There's a LOT of attrition; viewers come and go. The trick is hooking them so that they DO return the following week, which is hard to do with eps that aren't overwhelmingly strong or special. This plays back into story arcs and why we see a lot of stunt casting.

With increased age, the show also gets more expensive. It may be why there is less of an emphasis on promotion, which doesn't help bring in new fans - something every show wants.

Next year:
They HAVE to refocus and get the show back on a more popular track. Look at past episodes to see what drummed up the most buzz. *cough*Justice*cough*. Bring back old JLA heroes for a few eps if possible (MM is a good start). Amp up the 33.1 project and farm it for good stand-alone eps. Introduce a new nemesis like Brainiac for a recurring role (could be 33.1 related.) End the Lana/Lex marriage and get her Away. From. LEX ASAP! Get Lois working at The Planet with Olsen. Start using Lana as Clark's confidant (assuming Kreuk returns). Introduce a romantic partner for Clark (could be new or existing). Such episodes are popular with audiences (Lana, Chloe, Lois, Alicia, Kyla, Raya, etc.) and it keeps the mushy B stories (LOL!) still focused around him. And finally, for the love of Rao, include more shirtless Clark scenes!

LOL!

I think that covers it.

Great post, Pat!

And about episodes like Justice, I wouldn't mind having other heroes back as long as they don't take the focus away from Clark. This is his show, after all.

 

[Brainiac 8]

If there is to be more shirtless Clark, then it's only fair that we getting more shirtless Durance in the process.....hmmm....maybe during the same scenes.

 

[KalKai]

Say goodbye to the Gilmore Girls

After weeks of talks aimed at bringing the show back for a limited run next season, the CW and Warner Bros. TV have decided to wrap production on the quirky dramedy that focused on fast-talking femmes. Skein, now in its seventh season, will air its final episode May 15.

"Gilmore" was a holdover from the now-defunct WB network. Debuting in 2000, it quickly became one of the Frog's signature skeins, with crix eating up the witty banter between mom Lorelai (Lauren Graham) and her daughter Rory (Alexis Bledel). Series was set in the fictional hamlet of Stars Hollow, CT.

CW and WBTV released a joint statement noting the passing Thursday morning.

"Announcing the final season of 'Gilmore Girls' is truly a sad moment for everyone at The CW and Warner Bros. Television," statement read. "This series helped define a network and created a fantastic, storybook world featuring some of television's most memorable, lovable characters."

David Rosenthal exec produced and served as showrunner on the current season of "Gilmore," which was created by Amy Sherman-Palladino. WBTV and CW thanked the producers and cast for their work, as well as crix who supported the show with glowing reviews.

"(We) promise to give this series the send off it deserves," statement said.

 

[avidreader]

That's bad new about GG. I dont watch it as regularly as I used to, I just couldnt get into this season, but I would have thought that the finale had already been filmed. I hope they new then that it was going to be the end.

 

[AgentPat]

Thursday finals for Noir, from Travis Yanan over at PiFeedback:

Smallville
- 3.586 million viewers
- 2.1/4 HH
- 1.5/4 A18-49
- 1.6/5 A18-34

Supernatural
- 3.115 million viewers
- 1.8/3 HH
- 1.3/3 A18-49
- 1.5/4 A18-34


With GG being canceled, SN will most likely be renewed. Only question now is will they keep it in the same timeslot vs use it as a lead in like SV on another night.

 

[Billy Batson]

I blame that movie for the poor ratings.
SUPERMAN is dead.

 

[triplet]

An interesting article on the upfronts skedded for next week....

Confusion reigns at key U.S. TV upfront season
By Paul Thomasch
Wed May 9, 1:34 PM ET

The annual process of buying and selling billions of dollars worth of commercial time on U.S. television has always been a tricky business -- but never this tricky.

As media executives head into next week's annual upfront presentations, when TV networks showcase their fall programs and book commitments for about $9 billion in prime-time advertising, they face unprecedented questions over how to set prices.

That's because viewing patterns are changing, thanks to the spread of digital video recorders (DVRs) and the broadcast of some TV shows over the Internet. Audience measurement standards are changing, too, with new ratings that count how many people watch commercials or watch recordings of shows.

"I don't know that it can be any more complicated," said Lisa Herdman, vice president and associate director of network programming at RPA, an advertising and media buying agency.

The upfront, first established for auto makers to lock up commercial time back in the 1950s, amounts to one of the year's most important weeks for both broadcasters and marketers.

Each spring at landmark New York spots like Lincoln Center or Carnegie Hall, networks ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox unveil their fall prime-time lineups to crowds of marketers and media buyers. Lavish cocktail parties follow, while actual negotiations on ad deals can last well into the night.

Those deals can account for 80 percent of TV advertising time for the season, and usually include some guarantee for marketers that programs will attract a certain size audience. Last year, about $9 billion worth of deals were struck.

About the same amount of money should change hands this year, advertising executives predict, although some TV network executives have forecast a stronger market.

Both sides, however, see deals looking far different than in the past and say the whole process could be slowed down by uncertainty over how arrangements will be structured.

"I think the biggest shortcoming on the upfront is there's still a fair amount of confusion, disagreement among the agencies about what the pricing standard is going to be," Peter Chernin, chief operating officer at News Corp, which owns Fox, said on Wednesday.

ABC is owned by Walt Disney Co., CBS is owned by CBS Corp. and NBC is owned by General Electric Co.. Last year, analysts say Fox showed the biggest jump in revenue thanks to hits like "American Idol," and "24."

SEISMIC CHANGE'

The chief reason for the confusion is that DVRs and the Web have caused a wholesale shift in how Americans watch TV.

"The way people view television is changing dramatically," said Rino Scanzoni, Chief Investment Officer of WPP Group Plc's GroupM, a consortium of media buying operations. "There has been a seismic change."

DVRs, for instance, have allowed viewers to watch their favorite shows at their leisure. To date, that audience hasn't been counted in the standard ratings provided by Nielsen Media Research, accounting for a decline in prime-time TV audiences during the original broadcast hours, experts say.

CBS Corp. Chief Executive Leslie Moonves recently estimated that about 7 percent of the 18-to-49 year-old audience prized by advertisers is not being counted because of DVR viewership.

"That is a big chunk of the viewing pie," Moonves told investors this month, adding that he wanted to be paid for those viewers and was confident the DVR audience would be included in this year's deals.

Even those who agree DVR viewers should be counted cannot agree on how long the audience should be given to watch the recording. Should viewers who watch the recording within one day of broadcast count toward ratings? Three days? A week?

Commercial skipping is another complicating factor. With Nielsen expected to issue publicly a commercial ratings service in the coming weeks, for the first time numbers will be widely available to show how many viewership through program breaks.

But whether -- or how -- those numbers will be used as the standard rating measurement in this year's deals is unclear.

Another major variable in talks will be the issue of commercial time on the networks' Internet sites and other digital media, which are becoming a larger component of TV ad negotiations as media companies try to capitalize on the audience watching shows on the Web.

"There is just so much that buyers and sellers need to understand before we're going to jump with two feet into this market," said Bill McOwen, director of media investments for Havas media buyer MPG North America

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070509/tv_nm/advertising_upfronts_dc;_ylt=AtP7vDaAbE6hHmZti9h0uP9pMhkF

What makes this good for Smallville is that it is one of the most recorded shows on DVR...

Them counting the DVR views could have a huge positive impact for Smallville's ratings...

 

[avidreader]

MediaWeek:

The CW’s Smallville (Viewers: #5, 3.36 million; A18-49: #5, 1.3/ 4).

This is really disheartening. Although, I believe its still doing better than most of the CW shows.

I think they seriously need to make up their minds that next season will be the last and showcase it as the last season, so they can make it BIG and SPECTACULAR and get every one back into watch it so it can go out on a high note.

 

[heliorei]

MediaWeek:

The CW’s Smallville (Viewers: #5, 3.36 million; A18-49: #5, 1.3/ 4).

This is really disheartening. Although, I believe its still doing better than most of the CW shows.

I think they seriously need to make up their minds that next season will be the last and showcase it as the last season, so they can make it BIG and SPECTACULAR and get every one back into watch it so it can go out on a high note.

That's almost 2 million less than Justice.

Only comparing with other shows but it seems Thrusday is too much for Smallville, at least since Promise.


I agree with you: season 7 should be the last: make it big and spectacular.

 

[AgentPat]

As posted by Marc Berman over at PiFeedback:

Smallville (Viewers: #5, 3.36 million; A18-49: #5, 1.3/ 4).
Supernatural (Viewers: #5, 2.84 million; A18-49: #5, 1.2/ 3).

Half hour breakdowns:

Smallville
8:00 p.m. V: 3.19 million, A18-49: 1.3/ 4
8:30 p.m. V: 3.54 million, A18-49: 1.4/ 4

Supernatural
9:00 p.m. V: 2.90 million, A18-49: 1.2/ 3
9:30 p.m. V: 2.79 million, A18-49: 1.2/ 3


Here are a few comments excerpted from the PiFeedback forums:

Petedagrk1:
"This week has to be a all time low for the CW especially now that its in sweeps....Top Model didn't even get 5 million this week."

Wenart25:
"Not true, the CW has low ratings back in February during sweeps. This is the only other time that Supernatural has been under 3 million viewers. The first time was with the episode "Born Under a Bad Sign," which garnered about 2.88 million viewers. So it has happened before, but for some reason, I just do not understand it."

Robert:
"...every show is waaaay down on its average numbers (minus Without a Trace). Horrible numbers for CW's shows. Season low for Betty and 5th Grader. CSI and Grey's not even close to 20 million. NBC's shows once again way down."

Xavier:
"This has to be the slowest May sweep Thursday in years. Most shows improve one week before their finales, but most everything drooped week to week, and shows that aired a year ago saw 20%+ declines. Grey's Anatomy (if nationals hold up), will tie a season low. I think the combo of the earlier DST and DVR is the true culprit. DVRing was less necessary when it was colder and dark by 8pm, but now it's daylight til 9pm or later some places and most people's viewing habits have changed as they always do in spring. I am a huge LOST fan, for instance, but missed 4 straight weeks because my whole life habits changed when spring came, so I DVRed the episodes. Same with DH, Ugly Betty, Grey's and even Heroes. Plus the spring storylines for all these shows (maybe save Heroes) have been weak and not appointment viewing, which I think is also having an impact. If my theory is true, these numbers will rebound in the fall. If I ran a network, I'd look at shortening the season to end before DST starts in March for these serialized shows (air them without repeat) and then start a new summer season with lighter easier-to-follow shows in April."

Asiancolossus:
"Everything is down, it is so easy for posters to write off all the shows they don't watch because of low ratings, but everything seems to be down across the board. Yes even American Idol! Seems that with DVR, any show that does 10 million nowadays with decent demos should be considered a hit."

Soccer7SG:
"What is up with the CW? It seems like EVERYTHING has very low ratings this week! Although this makes me less worried about my shows since it seems to be a general decline for the network..."

 

[The Incredible Hulk]

They're right, the CW network as a whole and pretty much every other Network has been down in May. Why that is? I'm not sure. It's not like DVR didnt exist last year, although this season was the first one where the Nets started streaming the shows on the internet, though SV doesnt have that as an excuse, although according to market survey's it is one of the most DVR'd shows, yet that wont show up in the Neilsen's until next year I believe.

I'd expect more of a shakeup at the CW on the management side of things as opposed to the content. Their marketing/promotional plan is ***** so that may (and should) change as a result. Some of the TV guys here have been hearing rumors that Ostroff may be out if they dont have a strong finish to their TV season (which is basically the next 2 weeks). They're losing two of their "heavyweights" next season in 7H and GG and are pretty desperate to replace them with something and her track record for new shows from last year is awful. I wouldnt be worried about SV, GG, or ANTM right now. Those are the only shows keeping the CW above that silly "MyNetworkTV" that replaced the WB/UPN affiliates that didnt convert to the CW last fall.

 

[avidreader]

^^^^ Always the voice of logic Hulk. Thanks.

I feel a little better knowing all the Networks are down and I would be very interested to see those DVR results. Are DVR'd results not included in Nielsen Ratings?

And yes, the advertising and promo trailers have been the absolute pits this season on the CW, they need to fire that guy pronto.

 

[Serene]

I'm not expert on the ratings game, but I did hear some TV celebrity talking on the radio today about how the usual "Sweeps weeks" are going to become a thing of the past, and very soon. Apparently there is some new system that gives an instant rating as opposed to what the current one does?? He said the name of it, but I don't remember.

 

[AssMan]

according to market survey's it is one of the most DVR'd shows, yet that wont show up in the Neilsen's until next year I believe

I wonder how Supernatural has been doing on the XBOX Live Marketplace. They do update with the newer episodes weekly I guess that can factor in with Supernaturals ratings

 

[AgentPat]

The latest on CW's woes...

5/11/07

The CW still seeks its signature series
Network survives first season
By JOSEF ADALIAN

It's crunch time for the CW.

The lovechild of CBS Corp. and Warner Bros. has survived its first season, a little battered but still kicking. It didn't turn a profit in its first season (contrary to what its leaders had boldly predicted), but it also didn't suffer the sort of wholesale viewer rejection that some believed was a very real possibility.

That's largely because the net deliberately avoided serving up much new programming during season one, focusing its energies on getting auds to tune in their old WB and UPN faves on CW. It worked well enough: Ratings for the new net were about the same as what either the WB or UPN had been averaging.

"Last year was a year for viewers to find a new network and for us to find ourselves," says CW Entertainment prexy Dawn Ostroff.

Next season promises to be tougher.

The CW is desperately looking for its "Dawson's Creek" -- a buzzworthy show that can help put it on the map as its own entity.

THE STRATEGY

With "Gilmore Girls" and "7th Heaven" both goners, it's a sure bet CW will launch at least two dramas in the fall. Unless the net chooses to move its Monday comedy block, the new blood will likely be paired with reality skeins on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursdays should stay stable at 8, with "Smallville" leading into either the returning "Supernatural" or a new skein.

Biggest scheduling dilemma for CW execs is what to do about Sunday nights. With "Heaven" closed for good, net has no incumbent players on a night that has seriously underperformed.

Monday's comedy block will have an opening or two, with "All of Us" dead and "Girlfriends" not yet renewed.

It's possible CW will shift some laffers to Sunday, giving the idea of comedy on the night another try following last fall's short-lived foray into weekend laffers.

And while "America's Top Model" and "Beauty and the Geek" have traditionally spelled each other, CW could opt to put both on in the fall. Reality has performed very well for the net this season, so it makes sense for it to load up on the genre.

THE PLAYERS

Biggest buzzmaker for the CW next fall will be "Gossip Girl," the sudsy hour about rich kids in New York from "The OC" creator Josh Schwartz. It's hyper-targeted toward the net's young female audience, but broad enough to be CW's first potential breakout hit.

"We could definitely use a home run," Ostroff says, calling "Gossip" a show that's "more than just a typical soap."

Another pilot long considered a favorite to land a slot on the sked is the Kevin Smith-helmed "Reaper." It's a combination horror/comedy hour about a man who ends up chasing souls for Satan.

And don't count out the untitled South Africa-set family drama based on the Blighty format "Wild at Heart." It could be the sort of family fare the net needs on Sundays.

On the comedy front, "Hell on Earth" -- about a mean girl who gets a second chance at life -- sounds like a contender. Execs also have high hopes for "Dash 4 Cash," a laffer about a fake reality show.

CW is also developing a slew of real reality shows. Mother-daughter beauty pageant "Crowned" is a fall contender, while dating show "Farmer Takes a Wife" could air midseason.

Then there's "CW Now," a sort of "Entertainment Tonight" for the See-Dub generation. It could be used to fill some holes midseason or perhaps in the summer.

THE QUESTION MARKS

"Veronica Mars" keeps going on and off the bubble, at least according to the Internet. In truth, it's hard to understand why the net would give such a clear underperformer another shot. If "Mars" rises from the dead, it's a sign CW is playing it safe.

Frosh laffer "The Game" is technically a question mark, though Ostroff has been clear that she considers the show a success. As for "Girlfriends," it should be back if the net can make financial sense of it.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Media coverage of the CW hasn't been kind, with national mags like Newsweek taking shots at the net's failure to wow.

Fact is, given the tough terrain for the Big Four veteran nets -- all of whom saw some of their biggest hits suffer notable ratings losses this season -- it's actually kind of impressive that CW didn't collapse upon premiere.

Ostroff also didn't really have much time to develop new shows last year. Emerging with two modest success stories -- "The Game" and reality show "Pussycat Dolls Present" -- should count for something.

Exec knows there won't be any excuses this time next year if the CW hasn't found at least one hit to call its own.

"This is the season for us to establish our identity a little further, to extend the brand," Ostroff admits. "We need to find a show that's going to get our young audience excited."

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117964781.html

The only new show I have any interest in is Reaper. Given Kevin Smith's involvement, the one sheet description, and the comedy-horror approach, I'm already dying to see it. I hope it gets picked up.

Everything else as described sounds like the freshest horse poop this side of Iowa.

Anyhoo, as a reminder, the CW upfronts are this Thursday, so it should be an interesting week.

 

[Serene]

I'm glad to see that SV seems pretty much a sure bet though.

I agree, the Kevin Smith show sounds most interesting to me, but I bet that CW Now entertainment type show will fair well too. People LOVE celebrity gossip, and a show that focuses solely on the younger set sounds pretty promising.

 

[Lighthouse]

Maybe they'll dust off Aquaman and give it a try again. Sure, Hartley played GA, but they seem pretty desperate.

 

[AgentPat]

The latest guesses for CW's fall line-up are starting to show up. Nothing is definite until the upfronts, but some of these combinations look good, and I'm ecstatic about the SV/Reaper prediction.

Sunday
CW Now
Viewsers
Supernatural
Veronica Mars: FBI

Monday
Everybody Hates Chris
New Comedy
Girlfriends
New Comedy

Tuesday
Wild at Heart
One Tree Hill

Wednesday
America's Next Top Model
Gossip Girl

Thursday
Smallville
Reaper

Friday
WWE Smackdown!

http://www.nku.edu/~manningj1/CW2007.htm

Sunday
5:00PM Various Repeats
6:00PM Various Repeats
7:00PM America's Next Top Model Encore
8:00PM Supernatural
9:00PM Spellbound (NEW)

Monday
8:00PM Everybody Hates Chris
8:30PM Aliens in America (NEW)
9:00PM Girlfriends
9:30PM The Game

Tuesday
8:00PM Wild at Heart (NEW)
9:00PM One Tree Hill / Pussycat Dolls

Wednesday
8:00PM America's Next Top Model
9:00PM Gossip Girl (NEW)

Thursday
8:00PM Smallville
9:00PM Reaper (NEW)

Friday
8:00PM WWE Smackdown!

http://www.sitcomsonline.com/blog/2007/05/sitcomsonlinecom-2007-08-upfront_11.html

 

[Lighthouse]

I don't know about Reaper. The plot sounds almost exactly the same as Fox's Brimstone, which ironically had Smallville's John Glover playing the devil, and playing him very effectively I might add. I don't think Ray Wise can do as well as he did. Anyway Supernatural is already such a great companion to Smallville, and one of my favorite shows. If this move to Sunday kills it, I'll pray to the dark lord that CW falls on its ass.

 

[AssMan]

Supernatural on Sunday ? Those **** faces dont fix something that is not broken you stupid CW ****s. Put Reaper on Sunday you stupid dick for brains **** heads. A blond is the head of CW right ? If so that explains a whole lot

 

[The Incredible Hulk]

SN is barely getting 3 million viewers. I dont know if I'd say that it's "not broken."

And hey, my Mom has blonde hair...

 

[AssMan]

And hey, my Mom has blonde hair...

I should have included I didnt mean all blondes

 

[Lighthouse]

SN deserves a hell of a lot more. I personally think its the best show on the CW, followed by Smallville. I'm glad we're at least getting one more season.

 

[Cmill216]

Moving SPN away from SV and Thursdays makes me sad.