Trying to get ratings in a world of DVRs
by Rick Kushman
McClatchy Newspapers
10 October 2007
Were into the third week of the new fall TV season, and heres what is clear about the ratings: nothing.
What is clear is whats causing all this unclearness. Yup, technology. Isnt that always the way? The more technological advances we get, the more things slow down.
This time around, were specifically blaming digital video recorders - DVRs is what we wired people call them - those TiVo-like boxes that let you record soooo easily, not to mention pause and replay live TV. By the way, if you dont have one, they are life-changing. Stop reading now and go get one. Youll thank me. Ill wait here.
OK, see? You can watch so much more TV now, cant you? And congratulations, now youre part of the problem.
Americans are adapting to DVRs faster than any TV technology ever. Last fall, when the season started, 8.5 percent of homes had DVRs. Now, were at 19.5 percent and skyrocketing, and the one thing everyone in the industry is sure about is that way more people than ever are recording shows and watching them later. Sometimes days and days later.
That means the ratings we normally get from Nielsen are, even more, just a partial picture, which matters a lot to advertisers, and its those advertisers who pay for most of what you and I watch.
Heres whats changed. Nielsen is still issuing its regular reports - an estimate comes overnight, and a more thorough number comes out a week later. But now, its also reporting a viewing total called live-plus-seven, which includes people who watched on DVRs within seven days of the original airing. (The live-plus-seven doesnt count VCR viewing, because it needs digital technology to work.)
But thats not all, because in the world of TV ratings, nothing is ever simple. There is also a new rating - C3 - which counts viewership of the actual commercials watched within three days of the first airing.
The live-plus-seven takes two weeks to come out, which makes some sense, since its covering a seven-day period added to the usual seven-day lag time. The C3 rating takes three weeks to come out because, actually, I dont know. No one seems to know why, because, I dont know that either.
But here are the things we do know: Viewership numbers are generally down this season for the networks, just as they have been in the past few years as people find more and more entertainment options.
And we know that the live-plus-seven can add 10 percent or more to the total ratings for some series - in particular, ones that tend to attract younger or techno-savvy viewers, and shows that are serialized.
Plus, we know that advertisers will care most about the C3 ratings, because they want to know who, if anyone, is actually watching their ads. One answer, according to research that CBS has shared with TV critics, seems to be that about 40 percent of people who record shows still watch the commercials. No one knows why this happens.
So this is where we are: Better, more final ratings on this seasons shows will be out this week. Ratings on commercials will be issued Oct. 15. In the meantime, we can extrapolate from the early, more-preliminary-than-ever current ratings.
The list of top-rated shows, so far, looks a lot like it did last season: CSI, Greys Anatomy, Dancing With the Stars, House, Desperate Housewives and CSI: Miami lead the pack. When you factor in shows that drew the younger viewers, Heroes, The Office and Brothers & Sisters join the winners circle.
As for new shows, there were no instant crazy hits, and everything is going to take some time to settle into a pattern, but NBCs Bionic Woman and ABCs Private Practice and Pushing Daisies look solid so far.
The vast middle ground of maybe-theyll-work-out includes CBS Cane and The Big Bang Theory, NBCs Chuck and Life, ABCs Dirty Sexy Money and Foxs Back to You.
The new shows that appear to be struggling include NBCs Journeyman, Foxs K-Ville and almost everything on CW.
CWs apparent struggles remain something of a mystery. The network had a terrific development season, creating strong new shows like Aliens in America, Life Is Wild and, especially, Reaper, which has gotten nothing but love from critics across the country. Yet, CWs ratings look to have dropped more than any other network.
(The good news for anyone whos found Reaper is that its doing OK by CWs modest standards and is likely to stick around a while.)
And in the very, very loser category is ABCs Cavemen. The initial ratings werent horrendous because of the curiosity factor, but how many people are going to come back to watch the same train wreck twice?
http://www.popmatters.com/pm/news/article/49663/trying-to-get-ratings-in-a-world-of-dvrs/
