Rogue One Rogue One Box Office Prediction Thread

[C. Lee]

Deadline said there were going to be more schools opened this year compared to last year for TFA's first Monday. I think Christmas coming on a Sunday makes the schedule a bit weird.

School's out all next week here in Kentucky.

I posted how I had went to RO and loved it on Facebook.....and several of my family said they would take their kids to see it now. I think it will have a good amount of families going to it because of the holidays.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

School's out all next week here in Kentucky.

I posted how I had went to RO and loved it on Facebook.....and several of my family said they would take their kids to see it now. I think it will have a good amount of families going to it because of the holidays.

I think my niece has classes next week, but I can't remember if she has to go all week. The school system here likes to give them random days and weeks off now and I don't know how that effects their Christmas Break.

I am totally curious how next weekend will go with Christmas Eve and day on Sat and Sunday. And yeah, while it is a bit more "adult" I think Rogue One will definitely do wonders for kids. Heck K2 will win them over by himself.

 

[Ozbridge]

Looks like roughly 45 mill for Sat.

That's a 7% increase from true Friday; for comparison TFA increased 10%.

Well that's not what Hollywood Reporter is saying. They still think Rogue One will hit a $150M OW: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...-targets-145m-debut-huge-friday-launch-956924

THR predicted 150M OW on Friday before they have official Friday and estimated Saturday number, so it can't be expected that they predicted accurately. Besides R1 only needs to drop 24% to have 150M OW (TFA dropped 11%).

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Friday numbers are the reason why a lot of predictions moved up to 150m. If it is 45mil on Sat, the total domestically is around 116m, meaning they need 34m on Sunday to get to 150m. Seems plenty doable to me.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Deadline is reporting a 46.25 m Saturday for a 155.7 m OW.

 

[Kaleb]

It seems to be bringing in similar numbers as Batman v Superman (166m OW)

Thurs BvS-27Mil/Rogue One-29Mil
Fri:BvS- 81Mil/Rogue One-79Mil
Sat:BvS -50Mil /Rogue One- 46.5Mil
Sun:BvS -33Mil/Rogue One ?

 

[Sithborg]

I am pretty certain that the WOM is going to be much better than BvS, so you won't see that Sunday drop.

 

[terry78]

We're being frozen out here in the midwest with snow and negative temps, so it may affect it here some. For those that have to travel far.

 

[Kaleb]

I am pretty certain that the WOM is going to be much better than BvS, so you won't see that Sunday drop.

yeah also I doubt we will see that massive drop BvS took in the 2nd weekend (51Mil/ -69%)

 

[metaphysician]

No, he uses specially printed $1000 treasury notes.

Do they have David TennantScrooge McDuck on them? *eg*

 

[sueb1863]

Very icy here in Ohio last night. Some people around here might have skipped going to the movies. The parking lot at the theater was pretty slick.

 

[Erzengel]

Deadline Sunday AM update, $155.7 weekend.

 

[terry78]

Three big things opening this Wednesday, so if it's still number one after christmas, that's your sign.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Three big things opening this Wednesday, so if it's still number one after christmas, that's your sign.

Based on muted buzz and mixed reviews they're not going to be that big.

A Rogue One three-peat (wins 3 weekends in a row) or four-peat would not surprise me.

 

[writer0327]

Based on muted buzz and mixed reviews they're not going to be that big.

A Rogue One three-peat (wins 3 weekends in a row) or four-peat would not surprise me.

My expectations as well.

The weather factor is definitely there. A lot of folks are staying home.

 

[The Chris]

I honestly don't understand the thought process of releasing a Sci-Fi movie 5 days after a Star Wars movie. That's just dumb.

 

[Iceman]

If the legs are like The Force Awakens, i.e. a 3.77x multiplier, this film will leave theaters with over $573M domestically, and $1.5B worldwide.

Very impressive for a spin-off entry.

Those would be crazy numbers for a main film! I'm not expecting quite that much but a lot of big numbers are on the table now after that start.

 

[writer0327]

The WOM from the Vader scene is rich right now. It's just one scene but everyone is buzzing about it.

 

[danoyse]

We're being frozen out here in the midwest with snow and negative temps, so it may affect it here some. For those that have to travel far.

We have snow out here in NJ too...our show was still sold out last night, but good lord, they only just started plowing the parking lot when we got there.

 

[Timebomb]

The WOM from the Vader scene is rich right now. It's just one scene but everyone is buzzing about it.

And deservedly so. Wow what a sequence.

 

[Sithborg]

Three big things opening this Wednesday, so if it's still number one after christmas, that's your sign.

Passengers, nope. Jlaw and Pratt do have drawing power, but not that much power. Especially with the reviews.

Assassin's Creed? Lol

Sing has potential, mainly because Rogue One isn't quite as family friendly for those with young kids. I know my fear of Vader would've tripled if I had seen Rogue One when I was 4.

 

[Roose Bolton]

Assassin's Creed might be a nuisance, purely because of the competition it might bring to the adolescent market may hinder repeat viewings, though I can't see this being enough to seriously hurt the film's box office momentum.

 

[InCali]

We're being frozen out here in the midwest with snow and negative temps, so it may affect it here some. For those that have to travel far.

In SoCal, our "storm" dropped OVER 2 INCHES of rain. It's sunny now, but a downright frigid 68 degrees. I'm sure people will be staying home with their heaters on.

 

[JB33]

What are you guys expecting for its first Monday? A first Sunday-to-Monday drop similar to that of The Force Awakens would give Rogue One about a $24.88M haul tomorrow. Given the factor of some schools still being in session, I guess I don't expect it to be that high. Over $20M would be cool, though.

For what it's worth, Gitesh Pandya on Twitter speculates that Rogue One has a good shot at $600M domestic.

 

[Vartha]

Very icy here in Ohio last night. Some people around here might have skipped going to the movies. The parking lot at the theater was pretty slick.

Yeah I went Saturday at noon it was 40 degrees and drizzling, here in Arkansas, I got out of the theater it was 31 and still misting and beginning to freeze on the windshields it was 3 degrees this morning lol