Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Box-Office Numbers

[psylockolussus]

How Marvel’s ‘Shang-Chi’ Can Make Box Office History

 

[Dark Raven]

How Marvel’s ‘Shang-Chi’ Can Make Box Office History

That's an article from March 2021.

 

[psylockolussus]

I voted less than 500 million in the poll.

 

[samsnee]

If this makes $500 million I consider it a win. Even pre-covid I didn’t expect anywhere close to a billion. Realistically I think $300 million is more likely unfortunately.

 

[psylockolussus]

I don't see it outgrossing Black Widow anywhere. An opening of 50 million in NA would be a win, with a 2.3 multiplier. Like Black Widow I just want it to hit 9 digits.

 

[Rice Eater]

Nobody was predicting a billion. Most expect Ant Man 2 numbers or slightly better. Which was where I was at. I was predicting low 200's domestic and 700 WW. Obviously those numbers are impossible to produce now.

My final totally random prediction for the domestic opening weekend is 60 million without using insiders or presales to help aid my guess. Forget worldwide predictions, that's in shambles now. Especially since we have no idea if it will open in China.

 

[samsnee]

I don't see it outgrossing Black Widow anywhere. An opening of 50 million in NA would be a win, with a 2.3 multiplier. Like Black Widow I just want it to hit 9 digits.

I think this being only in theaters will help a lot.

 

[Binary10]

I think this being only in theaters will help a lot.

I agree

 

[Binary10]

Nobody was predicting a billion. Most expect Ant Man 2 numbers or slightly better. Which was where I was at. I was predicting low 200's domestic and 700 WW. Obviously those numbers are impossible to produce now.

My final totally random prediction for the domestic opening weekend is 60 million without using insiders or presales to help aid my guess. Forget worldwide predictions, that's in shambles now. Especially since we have no idea if it will open in China.

I think before the pandemic this movie could have reach near a billion, if it fulfilled its potential.

But now I think if it's theater only, and it receives amazing reviews. And the action is described as being incredible, then I think it will beat black widows opening weekend.

And overall box office, and it may end up making over 500-600+ million. I can foresee that happening if the potential is achieved, plus the cultural impact for Asian Americans and Asians in general I think will help with this movie. I'm anxiously awaiting the early reactions to this movie.

 

[psylockolussus]

Disney films 'Free Guy' and 'Shang-Chi' will debut in theaters only but data shows strong 'Black Widow' performance with hybrid Disney+ streaming strategy

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Tracking is up. $35-55m OW, $100-165m domestic finish.

 

[Binary10]

Tracking is up. $35-55m OW, $100-165m domestic finish.

What will make or break this movie is the reviews/reactions to this movie. If they are amazing and it's a must see, then the box office predictions will go up. I'm predicting 65 million to 100million.

 

[Prison Mike]

$65-100M seems a bit high for Labor Day weekend. People are usually out on vacation during that weekend. Not really a movie-going holiday. I agree with the tracking of $35-55M for opening weekend. Seems more realistic.

 

[Binary10]

$65-100M seems a bit high for Labor Day weekend. People are usually out on vacation during that weekend. Not really a movie-going holiday. I agree with the tracking of $35-55M for opening weekend. Seems more realistic.

I get that it may seem a little high, but that's why I think it all depends on the reactions/reviews and the marketing going forward.

If the early reactions on August 16th are similar to black panther, avengers 1, Civil War, winter solider. I can see it over performing and actually hitting higher than 55 million.

But if the early reactions are typical marvel movie standard reactions. Then I think it will hit maybe a minimum of 40 million.

 

[Rice Eater]

I'm so bummed that the first Asian lead MCU movie will likely end up having the worse release timing ever of all MCU movies.

I'm not too hopeful for a huge box office anymore. Just please come out to rave reviews and hopefully most people who watch it will love it and spread the word. Not that that will magically boost the box office. But just boost the character in general so that his next appearance and movie will generate much more excitement.

 

[psylockolussus]

It isn't definitely not getting bigger numbers than Black Widow, unless somehow covid cases suddenly become lower in the last week of August and way more people wants to go to theaters. September is also usually a quiet month for movies. Iirc the It movies are some of the few movies in September that really opened huge.

Black Widow so far managed to doubled its opening weekend in North America. I think its multiplier rightnow is either 2.1 or 2.2. And if Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings opened at 30 million, it would have a hard time crossing the 100 million mark. So I'm really hoping for 50 million.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I'd be very surprised if it makes more than 50M opening weekend.

 

[BoredGuy]

This really sucks, I feel bad for everyone involved in all of these movies… if only there were fewer antivaxx dips**ts we wouldnt be in this position, now it looks like another year of devastated movie industry

 

[Iceman]

I'm so bummed that the first Asian lead MCU movie will likely end up having the worse release timing ever of all MCU movies.

I'm not too hopeful for a huge box office anymore. Just please come out to rave reviews and hopefully most people who watch it will love it and spread the word. Not that that will magically boost the box office. But just boost the character in general so that his next appearance and movie will generate much more excitement.

Yeah, I’d definitely take that right now.

 

[psylockolussus]

Black Widow has grossed 178 million in North America so far, so it'd look disastrous if Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings doesn't at least hit 100 million in comparison to Black Widow. I'm still hoping this would surprisingly do okay. September after all has few big movies until 007. Also Jungle Cruise is nearing the 100million mark

 

[Prison Mike]

September might have fewer big movies but kids are also back in school during this time. It would be interesting if Disney has two movies that does day and date and makes over $100M at domestic BO but has one movie that’s theatrical exclusive and doesn’t break $100M.

 

[psylockolussus]

It wouldn't be interesting, it would be disastrous.

But who knows Disney seems pleased with Free Guy's number. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings doesn't look like it cost more than 150 million.

 

[Prison Mike]

It’s an “interesting experiment”

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

I'm starting to think this will do great for the covid era at the box office. It will be a theater only release which I think is going to help a lot. I think Black Widow would've opened 100+ if it wasn't on PA.

I'm not sure if it will beat BW 80 million pandemic opening but I can see it doing maybe 60ish and then having much better legs than Widow had.

The dream I'm hoping for is 70+ lol but we'll see how the presales play out over the next few weeks. So far on the box office forums it seems to be selling really well.

 

[Rice Eater]

I just want it to do well to a guarantee a sequel and a 3quel.

Cruella and Free Guy are both getting sequels. Shang Chi will do far better than both those movies. The times we're in are different, so expectations will be different as well.

I'm sure Shang Chi will get another movie along with crossovers.