Should studios spread out blockbusters over a whole year?

[jmc]

Why is January a dead month? Seriously, who made that rule up? It doesn't have to be a mega tent pole, but if you've got a middling franchise why not let it try and earn its money when there is no competition?

 

[Warhammer]

One thing that pisses me off is that August is pretty much a dumping ground for the lower end blockbusters. Put some major blockbusters in the first half of August. August should be utilized much more efficiently. I never understood the whole argument about August to early September being busy because of back to school. Why do months where school is actually deep into the semester/quarter have good business?

I understand that September is the first month for Oscar bait, so studios don't want their tentpoles cutting into those grosses. I am glad that studios are warming up more and more for March and April releases. Those two months (March especially thanks to 300) are untapped potential. As for January, a studio ought to take a chance and release something decent there. Snow doesn't prevent a blockbuster. February is the month where I personally check all the Academy nominated films I didn't see when they were first released.

 

[SuperJediHero]

The ONLY reason that they always have blockbuster during Summer is no school for kids-High school.

But something tells me, that they will go see a superhero movie if they want to, during regular weekends.

The theater near me is ALWAYS packed during every weekends.

 

[SuperJediHero]

The ONLY reason that they always have blockbuster during Summer is no school for kids-High school.

But something tells me, that they will go see a superhero movie if they want to, during regular weekends.

The theater near me is ALWAYS packed during every weekends.

However, how many times these students sees the Blockbusters may be much much higher during Summer when there are no school compared to school time.

 

[spider-neil]

If there is an amazing movie then it is going to make money regardless of when it's released. For example Avengers 2 could be released in Feb and it would still clean up.

 

[terry78]

During summer people tend to go moreso during the day also. I was off Thursday and went around 3pm, Fast and Furious was sold out.

 

[mclay18]

Put some major blockbusters in the first half of August. August should be utilized much more efficiently. I never understood the whole argument about August to early September being busy because of back to school.

Yeah. The most recent September hit (barring the animated Hotel Transylvania and Lion King 3D) was Sweet Home Alabama and Rush Hour back in 2002 and 1998 respectively. The latter in particular had an impressive 4.3 multipler. And like I said a page back, Paramount had two big 1980s films in September; each one made over $300M domestic with ticket price inflation.

September is an overlooked month, sadly. People will come see a movie in September if it looks good.

 

[mclay18]

I was reading an article in Box Office Magazine, "In Support of a 52-Week Slate", by Patrick Corcoran. He suggests that studios need to provide "diverse offerings for the widest range of patrons", with a wider range of options consumers can choose from. Especially in January and February.

http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/86891292/support-52-week-slate

 

[Warhammer]

I agree with expanding to January and February. If there is enough demand and anticipation, people will see it. Weekends will just be more front loaded and less money will be made of the weekdays. The money will still be made.

 

[SlamAdams]

I think there might be a chicken and the egg situation with the "dead months." If the studios have stats that say people go to the movies less in January, they are going to think of it as fact, and not because that is when the release crap. At this point, either could be true

 

[Warhammer]

Those stats only exist because those months are dumping grounds.

 

[SlamAdams]

Why is January a dead month? Seriously, who made that rule up? It doesn't have to be a mega tent pole, but if you've got a middling franchise why not let it try and earn its money when there is no competition?

I feel like moving an overly successful series to January might be better. People will tend to seek them out more and it can be away from the summer weeks when there tends to be something "must see" every week. It could just top the box office for weeks or maybe months.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I'm surprised Skyfall hasn't been mentioned. Skyfall was released in late October/early November in the US and made a billion.

Prettty much all but January and February has the potential to make a billion, so yes (as long as it's not January and February).

I was reading an article in Box Office Magazine, "In Support of a 52-Week Slate", by Patrick Corcoran. He suggests that studios need to provide "diverse offerings for the widest range of patrons", with a wider range of options consumers can choose from. Especially in January and February.

http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/86891292/support-52-week-slate

I agree with expanding to January and February. If there is enough demand and anticipation, people will see it. Weekends will just be more front loaded and less money will be made of the weekdays. The money will still be made.

It's gonna take one hell of a movie to lose that stigma of January and February. Even the GA is aware of the stigma against those two months.

 

[:eek:]

The Passion of the Christ showed that you can make big money with a February release. The Star Wars re-release in 1997 made almost $140 million in America with a January release. I'm sure an Avengers 2 or another highly anticipated summer blockbuster could and would make big money even in those months

 

[Mr.M]

Why is January a dead month? Seriously, who made that rule up? It doesn't have to be a mega tent pole, but if you've got a middling franchise why not let it try and earn its money when there is no competition?

Hollywood doesn't live down under bro. You realize how freaking cold it is in the major metropolitan areas in the states? NOBODY ventures out in that month. Even Florida gets chilly weather from time to time. Not gonna happen. It's the epitome of a dead month. Here's my take:

Late August/September: Back to school/high school comedies, or R-rated college comedy.

October: Horror/thriller

November: Teenie bopper franchise like Twilight/Potter after the kids finish up the first quarter of the school year and need a break. Smaller budget fantasy/sci-fi franchises work here as a sort of appetizer to the December slate.

December: Blockbuster fantasy or sci-fi. Insert WoW, Star Trek, Star Wars, Avatar.

February: Big time comedy or rom-com that both sexes can enjoy. Get the hard R-rated, raunchy comedies in this slot. Or keep it PG-13 and make it a date. Also a good alternative for action franchises of the 90's mold.

March: Low end sci-fi or alternate history/period piece. 300, Gladiator, Troy, Watchmen, movies in that vein. The key is for something visual and visceral, just to keep us occupied until the summer.

April: Smaller budget franchises. I actually think Mission Impossible could use this slot. Bourne. Now we got Captain America. Fast and Furious would still be fine here.

May-July: Self explanatory.

August: Smaller action/sci-fi/adventure. Riddick, Blomkamp movies, just to play out the summer string and carry into September as people move on to the American football season.

 

[mclay18]

Hollywood doesn't live down under bro. You realize how freaking cold it is in the major metropolitan areas in the states? NOBODY ventures out in that month.

You can say the same thing about November and December, and those didn't prevent folks from coming out in droves for big movies. Even in January 2010, a winter blizzard didn't prevent December holdover Avatar from smashing box-office records in that month.

And for February. If you have diverse and appealing options (other than just chick flicks) in the marketplace... those tend to flourish. Several films have made over $100M in that month that weren't romance-themed: Shutter Island, aforementioned Passion of the Christ, Safe House, and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island.

 

[SlamAdams]

Those stats only exist because those months are dumping grounds.

My point is it could have become a dumping ground because the stats already supported the fact people go to the movies less during those times.

 

[redhawk23]

Late August is a dumping ground for movies that can't hang with the big boys.

District 9, Planet of the Apes and Inglourious Basterds all dide quite well for themselves in mid to late August and are are all pretty damn good movies.

Blomkamp's followup to District 9, Elysium, has been moved to that month.

 

[SlamAdams]

District 9, Planet of the Apes and Inglourious Basterds all dide quite well for themselves in mid to late August and are are all pretty damn good movies.

Blomkamp's followup to District 9, Elysium, has been moved to that month.

But if they had to actively compete with bigger blockbusters they might not have been that successful

 

[redhawk23]

I just meant that calling August a "dumping ground" which is how January and February are described is inaccurate as there are high quality, successful films released in that month.

August isn't any more a "dumping ground" than March is.

 

[SlamAdams]

I just meant that calling August a "dumping ground" which is how January and February are described is inaccurate as there are high quality, successful films released in that month.

August isn't any more a "dumping ground" than March is.

I still think that period tends to be a dumping ground despite the few wins it has had

 

[Mr.M]

You can say the same thing about November and December, and those didn't prevent folks from coming out in droves for big movies. Even in January 2010, a winter blizzard didn't prevent December holdover Avatar from smashing box-office records in that month.

And for February. If you have diverse and appealing options (other than just chick flicks) in the marketplace... those tend to flourish. Several films have made over $100M in that month that weren't romance-themed: Shutter Island, aforementioned Passion of the Christ, Safe House, and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island.

Passion could have been April but that's cutting it too close with the summer when people expect something more optimistic. Safe House, the one with Denzel right? Sort of an action thriller. Early Fall would have worked just as good. Shutter could have used Fall as well. Your point is they did well. My point is it isn't worth noting, because these aren't blockbuster movies.

Look obviously you have to release something other than Valentine's Day movies in February. January you compete with NFL playoffs for 3-4 weekends. So even though people are staying home, there is viable programming on TV on the weekends. August you have Olympics every four years which have done monster ratings when they've been on. Far as February, you can release those anti-romcom movies no problem, because not everybody has a date at the movies. But tentpole movies have limited slots. Best slots IMO:

1. Mid December: If you are LoTR or Avatar, you own this slot. Disney would be a fool not to get in on the action (they dropped the ball with the Narnia sequel, moreso because the movie was crap as opposed to timing).

2. May: Marvel month, plus Memorial Day. It's a slam dunk for mega popular franchises.

3. Late June/Early July: Basically THE slot for the epic, main event movies of the year. Great for launching novel franchises and sequels alike.

If your film can't carry one of those slots, yet you want it to earn comparable money to films typically released in those slots, it simply isn't going to happen any other time in the year. You're film has to either dominate its limited demographic or it simply has to exceed all expectations of the studio.

 

[mclay18]

If your film can't carry one of those slots, yet you want it to earn comparable money to films typically released in those slots, it simply isn't going to happen any other time in the year. You're film has to either dominate its limited demographic or it simply has to exceed all expectations of the studio.

Fox had massive success with a mid-range budgeted film Taken, which debuted on Super Bowl weekend. It had an impressive 5.9 multiplier with a robust $145M cume. They then released Taken 2 in October, which cleaned up at the box office. They could've released it in summer 2012, but they didn't.

Sony Pictures is taking advantage of September, after Hotel Transylvania opened big last year. They've slated their next animated films for this year and 2015 for that same weekend. So they're slowly catching on.

It's ultimately contingent on several factors -- the movie itself, how good the marketing is, and the release pattern. I would bet money January and February wouldn't be considered 'dead' months if Marvel Studios released a big sequel there and got their rivals thinking otherwise. Or if, God forbid, had Summit released any of their Twilight movies during those months.

 

[mclay18]

Variety put out an article dissecting the overload of pricey summer tentpoles. A portion of the article points out potential benefits of releasing during the off-peak seasons, in addition to controlling costs.

I also did a write-up about the off-peak months having financial potential here.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Skyfall, Alice in Wonderland, and Avatar are great examples of the potential releasing a tentpole during the off-peak months. To be honest, a tentpole, especially if it's good enough, can be huge earners anytime of the year.