Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Nell2ThaIzzay]

So Watchmen in 90 minutes would have cause the box office to be better?

No, not better - no effect is what I'm saying.

The same amount of people that DIDN'T watch Watchmen (as evidenced by the HUGE drop offs the second week) wouldn't have watched the movie regardless of the runtime.

 

[chaseter]

So you think as many fans would have went and watched a 90 minute Watchmen compared to a 2.5 hour one? So repeat viewings for the movie would have been the same if the movie were 90 minutes? The huge drop off was because Watchmen isn't nearly as widely known as say Batman or Spider-Man and it was also rated R...that contributed to the drop.

 

[Nell2ThaIzzay]

So you think as many fans would have went and watched a 90 minute Watchmen compared to a 2.5 hour one? So repeat viewings for the movie would have been the same if the movie were 90 minutes? The huge drop off was because Watchmen isn't nearly as widely known as say Batman or Spider-Man and it was also rated R...that contributed to the drop.

I had a whole damn thing written up and my Firefox crashed. I don't want to type it all up again right now - but give me a bit of a break and I'm sure I'll come back to this.

 

[chaseter]

How about we just agree to disagree...I respect your opinion but we are just going in circles.

 

[Peter McCabe]

This is a superhero movie.

Why do you believe this?

 

[chaseter]

Why do you believe this?

Because it falls more in line with that genre. Wolverine will save the world from a bad guy using super powers. I am not saying that Wolverine isn't an antihero because he is but antihero movies are more contained and to the point than a superhero movie. I will say that this is a mix

 

[Nell2ThaIzzay]

Why do you believe this?

It IS a superhero movie, but the X-Men, in particular Logan and his Weapon X stories, are a different breed of superhero.

The X-Men stories aren't your typical "duh duh duh duh!!!" "I'm a superhero! I fight evil super powered criminals to save the city!" type of superheroes.

I almost see X-Men as more fantasy - these are people with evolved capabilities, and there are particular conflicts that they face and must fight again, but it's not your typical Spiderman style masked hero saves the day with headlines in the Daily Bugle, and alternate identities to protect Peter Parker.

There's political relevance, the issue of bigotry and the struggle for equality. In the past, it's been women, blacks, Jews, native Americans, etc... fighting for their equality, these days it's the homo-sexuals. It's a theme that is timeless.

It also has many shades of gray. Magneto isn't evil. He may be misguided, but his intentions are honorable. Some of the heroes are exactly selfless individuals who act nobly to protect others. A character like Gambit - he's not exactly a "hero". Sure, he may do the right thing, but he'll also do the wrong thing if it personally benefits him.

These characters also aren't flawless individuals. They are 3 dimensional. These things that give them great strength are also great weaknesses. These characters are human - with human strengths and weaknesses, emotions, flaws.

There's just so much about X-Men that I find to be so much deeper than anything else out there in regards to comics and superheroes. And hell, a lot of fantasy and fiction in general.

 

[bunk]

Wolverine is as much a superhero movie as the X-Men movies are.

 

[Peter McCabe]

Because it falls more in line with that genre. Wolverine will save the world from a bad guy using super powers. I am not saying that Wolverine isn't an antihero because he is but antihero movies are more contained and to the point than a superhero movie. I will say that this is a mix

I like the mix part

, but you gotta agree its a 70/30.

The majority of the film is about revenge (ala MAD MAX) and the third act becomes heroic when Wolverine goes back to Weapon X - but see that's the code of the anti-hero.

*Both The Road Warrior and Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome are anti-hero movies where the third acts are completely about Max doing something heroic and not for himself.

The anti-hero is still a hero in the end, a man who does something he doesn't need or necessarily want to do, just to help others.

*Max helping the camp outrun the baddies in The Road Warrior.

*Dirty Harry going after Scorpio even though the Police Department isn't willing to stop him.

*The Punisher becoming a vigilante even though he's already avenged his family by killing Howard Saint.

Wolverine is not a superhero, he's doing what he does because he sees someone's gotta do it.

Superheroes take initiative (Iron Man, Spider Man, Batman)

Anti-heroes are reluctant to do what needs to be done.

 

[Timstuff]

Personally, I'm expecting Wolverine to underperform, because Fox has had a very bad year so far and it all starts and ends with their incompetent executives. I think it should at least break even, but Fox has already had one of their tentpoles knocked out this year (Dragonball Evolution), and I have not been impressed with what I've seen from Wolverine so far. I'm sure Fox will market the crap out of it (because let's face it, after losing 50 million on Street Fighter and 100 million on Dragon Ball, they can't afford to disown Wolverine too), but for what they put in and what they get out, I expect they'll be disappointed. Fox is rapidly turning into a bottom-tier studio (many would argue that they already have), and my gut tells me that this year is going to be a massive botch-up for them.

 

[chaseter]

I want this movie to fail because I truly dislike Fox and Rothman but I want it to be good because I love the X-Men...it sucks. But if it is a bad movie, I will bad mouth it to all of my friends and family to keep money out of their hands.

 

[Legion]

I think this movie do well, maybe not as well as the other movies but I'm sure people will go see it because it looks action packed.

As for me, I think it will be good but like the other movies it won't meet my expectations.

I would have liked a Wolverine movie to be dark and gritty, additions like Gambit, Deadpool, Cyclops, Blob, etc seem to make the movie a little more "flashy". And giving a final villain everyone's powers is definitely not dark or gritty.

 

[Peter McCabe]

I would have liked a Wolverine movie to be dark and gritty, additions like Gambit, Deadpool, Cyclops, Blob, etc seem to make the movie a little more "flashy". And giving a final villain everyone's powers is definitely not dark or gritty.

I agree.

I wish it woulda just been Jimmy, Victor and Stryker.

I think it can still be good, but definitely not as dark and gritty as it coulda been

 

[topdog1]

So you think as many fans would have went and watched a 90 minute Watchmen compared to a 2.5 hour one? So repeat viewings for the movie would have been the same if the movie were 90 minutes? The huge drop off was because Watchmen isn't nearly as widely known as say Batman or Spider-Man and it was also rated R...that contributed to the drop.

The huge Watchmen drop off was because of people like me who warned friends and family off the film. The rating or lack of popularity prior didn't have as much effect as the poor word of mouth. Wolverine will have the opposite effect. I expect stellar word of mouth for Wolvie.

 

[Nell2ThaIzzay]

I want this movie to fail because I truly dislike Fox and Rothman but I want it to be good because I love the X-Men...it sucks. But if it is a bad movie, I will bad mouth it to all of my friends and family to keep money out of their hands.

I kind of want the movie to fail just because I want Fox to back off all of these stupid spinoffs.

I don't want this franchise run into the ground by doing way too many unneeded films.

 

[Peter McCabe]

I kind of want the movie to fail just because I want Fox to back off all of these stupid spinoffs.

I don't want this franchise run into the ground by doing way too many unneeded films.

Which proposed movie do you find unnecessary?

Magneto? First Class? Deadpool?

 

[Nell2ThaIzzay]

Which proposed movie do you find unnecessary?

Magneto? First Class? Deadpool?

Magneto for sure is unnecessary. First Class could be appropriate, if set up right in X-Men Origins: Wolverine, but only if it's a Wolverine sequel / X-Men prequel.

Deadpool I could get behind just because Deadpool is really a character on his own, he's not so much as X-Men character. It's kinda like Silver Surfer, who is such a big character in his own right outside of Fantastic 4.

I'd say AT MOST, perhaps a Wolverine sequel, and 1 or 2 First Class films.

But I would be perfectly content with the main X-Men trilogy, and X-Men Origins: Wolverine.

 

[Peter McCabe]

Magneto for sure is unnecessary.

I'm 50/50 on that one.

The only reason I would wanna see that is the opposite of this movie.

I'm watching X-Men Origins: Wolverine for Logan, Creed and Stryker.

I would watch X-Men Origins: Magneto for Young Xavier, Young Magneto and just to figure out who the "secret" mutant is that Goyer was talkin about.

 

[topdog1]

A Magneto film would be spectacular if done right. From the first scene in X1 through the hints of the Eric/Xavier relationship, the story is begging to be fleshed out. It's a natural fit to be the next film. I'm 100% behind the idea. Magneto ripping through Nazi troops, meeting Xavier, building Cerebro and finding other mutants... the story almost writes itself and would be the perfect fit for this universe.

 

[chaseter]

The huge Watchmen drop off was because of people like me who warned friends and family off the film. The rating or lack of popularity prior didn't have as much effect as the poor word of mouth. Wolverine will have the opposite effect. I expect stellar word of mouth for Wolvie.

What did you expect from that film I am guessing you haven't read the GN which is why it had a huge drop off because people went in expecting something else and went WTF!? Fans and critics enjoyed it and it did alright for a rated R flick and the dvd sales will be huge.

It really depends on a few things in this film whether it will get good word of mouth or bad word of mouth like X3. I don't expect stellar word of mouth and I don't expect it to be as good a movie as Watchmen was but we will see.

 

[chaseter]

I kind of want the movie to fail just because I want Fox to back off all of these stupid spinoffs.

I don't want this franchise run into the ground by doing way too many unneeded films.

Yeah well Fox is going to continue to churn out X-Men movies whether you think they are warranted or not until they bomb financially.

 

[chaseter]

A Magneto film would be spectacular if done right. From the first scene in X1 through the hints of the Eric/Xavier relationship, the story is begging to be fleshed out. It's a natural fit to be the next film. I'm 100% behind the idea. Magneto ripping through Nazi troops, meeting Xavier, building Cerebro and finding other mutants... the story almost writes itself and would be the perfect fit for this universe.

I agree...add in how Xavier gets crippled and their conflict that causes them to split and you have a great character piece with some potentially awesome visuals and grounded war fight scenes. Plus...who doesn't love to see Nazi's beat to death?

 

[Nell2ThaIzzay]

Yeah well Fox is going to continue to churn out X-Men movies whether you think they are warranted or not until they bomb financially.

Which is why a part of me wants this movie to not be a success.

 

[terry78]

Call me when X-Men Origins: Storm comes to the screen. Her powers alone would warrant a big budget thing, but we only get to see them once or twice in the movies, and often they have to cheapen it. When she lets loose, she could easily take out an entire team. And recast her ass, stat.

 

[chaseter]

I don't think Storm needs her own movie and I don't think it would be good if they did.