Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Ace of Knaves]

Um, let me crunch the numbers. So it has an estimated 129.6mil right now. It made an estimated 27mil this weekend. (I think that they are underestimating it a bit, I believe it will have made about 27.3mil when all is said and done.) Angels and Demons should suffer the sins of TDC and open with about 55 to 60mil at best.

1.A&D: 55mil
2.Star Trek: 37.7mil-48% (without the weekdays which means I'm flying blind for now)
3.Wolverine:11.6-58% About a 148mil total.

So factor in the up coming hollyday weekend but it's is going to lose theaters fast so that might not help it too much...I'll say... 165 to 175mil total. About an even 2.0 multiplier.

Yea, that's roughly what I predict for US. I'd give it a bit more though, getting close to 200. Maybe 180-190 or something like that.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

I think this movie will end up at about 200 million US, maybe 180-190. Add another 150-200 on top of that international. Some where around 300-350 WW when the dust settles IMO.

I can all but guarantee that this will NEVER happen, sorry.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

I can all but guarantee that this will NEVER happen, sorry.

Hmmm and you are in a position to guarantee anything how? By clicking on boxofficemojo?

And you ain't gotta apologize. It's not the end of the world for me

 

[Raiden]

I think a 68% drop is rather steep, and it doesn't bode well for the longitivity of this movie. Comparing the reviews for Woverine with Star Trek, and you can see which movie the critics (and even GA) think is the superior movie. Wolverine should've been a much better film, and if it were I doubt the drop would've been this big.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Boxofficemojo predicts production budgets and all that though. I honestly do not believe this film cost more than 175-200million including EVERYTHING.

This site http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2009/WOLVE.php , also has the production budget at 150 million. And here's a quote from this site http://www.themovieblog.com/2009/05/x-men-origins-wolverine-dominates-87m-boxoffice , "Technically the movie cost $150 million to make, and that doesn’t take into account marketing (which was probably around $30 million). Also, don’t forget that the theaters will keep a bunch of the money when it’s all said and done. In the end, Wolverine will probably have to pull in something between $280-$320 million world wide to ensure it breaks even.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Agreed. Obviously bad word of mouth has a big impact. But still, I think Star Trek might have a pretty steep drop second week, as well as all the big movies this year, regardless of the positive reviews and word of mouth. Not as big as Wolverine, but I think it will be quite big.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

This site http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2009/WOLVE.php , also has the production budget at 150 million. And here's a quote from this site http://www.themovieblog.com/2009/05/x-men-origins-wolverine-dominates-87m-boxoffice , "Technically the movie cost $150 million to make, and that doesn’t take into account marketing (which was probably around $30 million). Also, don’t forget that the theaters will keep a bunch of the money when it’s all said and done. In the end, Wolverine will probably have to pull in something between $280-$320 million world wide to ensure it breaks even.

I see, still not official though. But nice find.

And anyway, I think it will hit the 300 million mark WW.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

At the end of the day Wolverine will make money for the studio, no matter how you crunch the numbers, the question is, how much will the sequel be affected by the bad word of mouth of this and the mixed word of mouth of X3. And I liked X3 more than the first movie but I don't think that most agree with me.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Well yea if you take merchandising and future DVD sales and all that into account it will make them a very nice profit. Especially the toys and all that.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Hmmm and you are in a position to guarantee anything how? By clicking on boxofficemojo?

And you ain't gotta apologize. It's not the end of the world for me

Knaves, please note that I said the following:

I can all but guarantee that this will NEVER happen, sorry.

I've been following box office trends for over a decade now, both as a hobby and for professional reasons. Trust me, I'm no expert, but I do consider myself well-versed on the topic. I'm not antagonizing here, I'm just workin' with the facts, applying experience, and forming an educated guess as a result. I know you meant no ill will, I'm just sayin' is all.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Yea ok, no worries. But still, I think it will make about 300 million WW.

 

[Heretic]

Star Trek will have a huge drop because...while it is appealing to general audiences, it's still freaking Star Trek...meaning that there are a ton of dorks* will go the first weekend that will give weight to its tally that wont be there the second week. I think the fact that it is appealing to the general audience will give the film a semblance of legs in a summer that wont have many to go around.

* A ton of Star Trek fans = 3 fans.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Errr...are you trying to mug me off again? Or are you actually being serious?

 

[squeekness]

Star Trek will have a huge drop because...while it is appealing to general audiences, it's still freaking Star Trek...meaning that there are a ton of dorks* will go the first weekend that will give weight to its tally that wont be there the second week. I think the fact that it is appealing to the general audience will give the film a semblance of legs in a summer that wont have many to go around.

* A ton of Star Trek fans = 3 fans.

*still strongly disagrees*

 

[Heretic]

Ace:

If you can find ANYTHING in that statement that even remotely has anything to do with you, I'll eat my shoe.

Personally, Im getting a little offended at your constant need to argue.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

And I liked X3 more than the first movie but I don't think that most agree with me.

I sorta do, feeling that when both X1's and TLS's pros/cons are taken into consideration, they come up about even for me on the favorability scale. Maybe X1 gets a very slight edge, but upon revisiting it, the flaws are much more pronounced almost a decade after the fact. X2 easily surpasses both for me in every aspect, and so far remains the pinnacle of success for the X-franchise IMHO.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Ace:

If you can find ANYTHING in that statement that even remotely has anything to do with you, I'll eat my shoe.

Personally, Im getting a little offended at your constant need to argue.

Hey, I'm not trying to start an argument.

What you said there was basically what I was saying yesterday, and you seemed to disagree with me then. I thought you was bringing that up in a sarcastic, piss taking manner.

If not, I apologize.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

*still strongly disagrees*

As do I! Trek will be this year's Batman Begins, or maybe even this year's Iron Man, although the latter is a lot less likely. I'm goin' out on a limb and predicting ST's 2nd weekend drop will be below 60%, and may just end up in the low to mid fifties. I can't imagine ST's audience running out to see A&D instead, that's just preposterous.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Well fellas and chicks, since none of us can tell the future we have to just wait and see what the hell happens next. Personally I still like to wait for the weekdays to predict movies second weekends. Thats exactly why I'm not saying that Star Trek will or won't drop 80% next weekend or that Wolverine will or won't drop another 68% next weekend.

 

[EnDz0n3]

I see, still not official though. But nice find.

No studio would ever confirm nor deny a movie's production budget so something like what was quoted is pretty much the closes we'll ever get to a confirmation.

With that in mind, it's been said that Star Trek's production budget is $200 Mil.

you mean a moo point ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLwYpSCrlHU

It's sad but I really didnt have to click on the youtube link to know that it's a Joey from Friends quote that's being linked.

 

[Heretic]

Believe me, I HOPE Star Trek has awesome legs...but I really do foresee a lackluster summer overall. Im not sure why...this summer just doesnt seem special for some reason.

The thing that is likely to prove me wrong is that there are a ton of duds coming out. Terminator, though it is likely to be a hit, SHOULDNT be. Again, coming off the heels of a bad part 3 and a poorly rated tv series...it will not be a massive blockbuster. That means Star Trek keeps chugging along doing decent numbers after Terminator has fallen off.

 

[squeekness]

As do I! Trek will be this year's Batman Begins, or maybe even this year's Iron Man, although the latter is a lot less likely. I'm goin' out on a limb and predicting ST's 2nd weekend drop will be below 60%, and may just end up in the low to mid fifties. I can't imagine ST's audience running out to see A&D instead, that's just preposterous.

The Angels and Demons crowd will be a lot less diverse than the Trek crowd. It won't make anywhere near the money, I'd say. It's just not logical. Wolverine might make more than A&D overall because folks will bring their kids to see it that won't to A&D.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't see the hype for A&D, maybe I'm wrong but I just don't see the hype.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Yea, that's roughly what I predict for US. I'd give it a bit more though, getting close to 200. Maybe 180-190 or something like that.

Where will it accumulate that extra 15 million? At this pace it will be well below 15 million next weekend, 5-7 million the following weekend. 3-4... 1-2... maybe 20 million or so the days in between. This will have trouble cracking 170. WW will have to break 130 for this to crack 300. It will probably do that. But 300 million WW is not impressive... at all. No way will this film will even outgross the first FF movie, which got one sequel... and all other sequels and spinoffs since are nowhere to be found. THey are even talking about rebooting already. Maybe we'll be having a realistic discussion about rebooting X-Men three years from now.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Transformers 2 will take the #1 spot 'cause people will flock just to witness the spectacle. Potter's a lock for #2 and may just pull an upset, but I doubt it. It's the penultimate entry before the big two-part finale and that only adds to the excitement which normally surrounds these films. Keep in mind also, Potter fans have been anxiously awaiting it's release after the delay from the originally scheduled '08 holiday season. Not to mention the latest trailer is pretty friggin' awesome, second only to Trek for me in generating enthusiasm. Which segues nicely into my prediction that ST will get the coveted #3 spot. I have severe reservations about Terminator. Unless its quality is above and beyond, I think the mass appeal is going to be limited. Plus, I didn't get the "wow" factor from the trailer, it was kinda underwhelming actually. Keep an eye on Public Enemies, it's being used as counter-programming and that's excellent strategy. Then when you take into account the Depp, CB, and Mann as director, it could really surprise and do some major BIG business.