Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[chaseter]

There are a few more movies coming out like Drag Me to Hell and Dance Flick or Movie or whatever it is called.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I will laugh hard if it doesn't pass X1's box office and it looks like it is going to be close.

Which one of your loved ones did this movie brutally attack lol? I kid, I kid!

You are on one vindictive mission in this thread, yet I suppose it's understandable!

---

Does anyone know what the worldwide total is at as of now?

 

[Celestial]

The international numbers should get updated tomorrow. At the end of last weekend, the overseas number was around $123m.

 

[kedrell]

$300-325M WW is where it will end up.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Not sure about 325, but I think it will hit 300 mill for sure. If you think about merchandise profit and everything else this movie as a brand has made a lot of money I reckon. I bet the action figure sales were insane. They even had comic book action figures with the films name on them.

 

[katie_girl09]

Which one of your loved ones did this movie brutally attack lol? I kid, I kid!

You are on one vindictive mission in this thread, yet I suppose it's understandable!

Some people bear an unnatural hostility toward this movie. Seriously, its just a movie!

 

[Celestial]

Variety:

The third frame of "Wolverine" led the rest of the pack with $13.5 million at 7,640 in 103 markets, led by the U.K. with $1.8 mllion and Brazil with $1.5 million as the latter territory benefitted from Hugh Jackman's promo visit.

Foreign cume has hit $144.5 million -- $5 million above the final international take for "X-Men." "X-Men: United" took in $192 million outside the United States and "X-Men: The Last Stand" wound up with $225 million overseas.

Worldwide is now $295 million. It hasn't opened in Mexico, Japan or India, yet.

 

[Downhere]

$300-325M WW is where it will end up.

It's going to end up with more than that considering it's just shy of the $300 million mark.

Placing No. 3 both domestically and internationally was 20th Century Fox’s “X-Men Origins: Wolverine,” which should jump the $300 million mark at the worldwide box office this week. Domestically, it declined 44% to $14.8 million for a cume of $151.1 million.


Overseas, “Wolverine” grossed $13.5 million at 7,640 in 103 markets, led by the U.K. with $1.8 million and Brazil with $1.5 million, as the latter territory benefited from Hugh Jackman’s promo visit. “Wolverine’s” foreign cume is $144.5 million overseas for a worldwide cume of $295.6 million.


http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118003823.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

The range it will fall into is $350-365 million worldwide. I say it will end up with around $180 million domestically and $175 million internationally for a $355 million worldwide tally.

 

[chaseter]

Which one of your loved ones did this movie brutally attack lol? I kid, I kid!

You are on one vindictive mission in this thread, yet I suppose it's understandable!

---

Does anyone know what the worldwide total is at as of now?

I love X1 and X2 and X3 was okay but I am tired of okay. This movie could have been awesome! So yeah it raped me X3 was alright given the circumstances surrounding the production but this movie had everything in the world going for it and I was incredibly let down.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Here's some interesting remarks from a site called www.boxofficeprophets.com , concerning Wolverine as it was headed into its second weekend:

"Returning films are led by Wolverine and not much else. The fourth film in the X-Men series and the first to focus on a single character (but: not really), Wolverine is the standard bearer for Fox's new strategy with the X-Men films. In that it's secured a Deadpool movie, it's probably a success. In that we might get a Magneto movie out of it... well, that's something we may come to regret.
Opening to $85 million, it dodged a couple of bullets since its special FX weren't top notch, reviews savaged it, and an Internet leak supposedly was going to cut it off at the knees. It's hard to say any of those ended up mattering, and while it's not going to make nearly what Fox hopes it will in the long run, I think they got the maximum out of it for its first weekend. As far as this weekend ... timber! At the very least, those reviews and word-of-mouth are going to kick in, with most people giving it a solid "meh". Factor in the fanboy element and I think we're going to see a second weekend of just $37 million."

Here's a brief excerpt of what they had to say about Trek opening the same weekend:

"Which isn't to say it won't be relatively huge, just not providing the numbers that a lot of people are hoping for. A full Thursday evening of screenings makes things that much more interesting, but I think we're going to see some trepidation to start, with about a $61 million weekend."

As for this past weekend, here were their predictions for WO's performance, where they make an interesting observation that I happen to agree with:

"Help is not coming for Wolverine, though, which dropped a near unfathomable 70% from its opening weekend. Like Mick Jagger without the Stones, the first solo effort from the X-Men crew was intriguing but ultimately reminded people why the whole is better than its parts. At this point, Wolverine might hit $170 million, but that's not a sure thing. Give it $11 million for its third frame."

I personally think it's a major factor in lowering expectations, although nobody in their right mind is going to argue that he's not the most popular individual X-Man. But I think it's fair to say that he's not as big as the X-team ensemble, I mean, it's not like this was X4 or even the supposed in-development X-Men: First Class. That's why I like to call it Wolverine: Origins, 'cause it's his story and his movie, not theirs. This also makes me very skeptical towards the possibility of these other rumored solo films, like Deadpool and Magneto, ever being more than just that... a rumor! What's more, in light of WO's lackluster box office and poor critical response, do you actually see the studio moving forward on these projects? Think about it, if the most popular character of the bunch just ends up doing adequately, wouldn't they be second-guessing proceeding with other solo films? Other solo films with characters of unproven viability no less. Don't wanna rain on anybody's parade, but it's certainly something to think about.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

To strengthen my point about an actual X-Men film versus a solo Wolverine movie, here's what BOM had to say about WO's past weekend performance:

"Sinking to third, X-Men Origins: Wolverine mustered an estimated $14.8 million, down 44 percent. Its drop was actually less than the previous X-Men movies in their third weekends. Nonetheless, each of those pictures had higher attendance at the same point, and the gap only widened. Strong for what it is, Wolverine has generated $151.1 million in 17 days."

 

[Jick]

Honestly, I think this movie is being a success at the box office. Even with its major drop back on the second weekend, it already paid itself, and will receive much more. Domestic and Worldwide.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Whoever was saying that the recession will negatively affect this year's box office, www.hollywood.com objects and had this to say on the subject:

"A terrific opening for Sony/Columbia’s Angels & Demons as the summer-movie season keeps marching toward that revenue record I’ve been talking about for a couple of months. Great product is driving this incredible momentum as evidenced by the miniscule summer blockbuster second weekend drop of Star Trek of only 45 percent! This is almost unheard of for a film that opened so huge, but with a level of quality that transcends the genre, the film will have “legs” — or as Spock would say: “live long and prosper” at the box office.

Star Trek landed in second in a near-photo finish as the well-reviewed and well-liked film beamed up another $43 million in intergalactic loot, closing in on the $150 million mark domestically. A “tribble-sized” second weekend drop made it a formidable competitor in this robust marketplace, and it should continue to generate solid returns in the weeks to come.

In third is Fox’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine with an impressive third weekend take of $14.8 million and a domestic cume of $151.1 million. After a steep 69 percent second weekend drop, just a 44 percent third weekend drop indicates that audiences are enjoying the X-Men ride as part of their summer movie diet."

Looks like the analysts who claimed people flock to movie theatres when times are bad to "escape" were right. 2009 is on track to break all previous records, but it's too early to call it just yet. 2007 currently holds the title for revenue at $9,663.7 billion, but 2002 still has it for actual tickets sold with 1,575.7 billion. This would be from 1980 on, and according to BOM 2009 now stands at $3,659.4/509.7, so it's got a ways to go. A YTD comparison shows it ahead of all that have come before it by a margin of +15% or above. Who would've thought?!

 

[chaseter]

It made a profit, nobody is debating that. However, it could have easily made double what it has made. It hasn't even beat X1 in the same time frame and it won't beat it adjusted for inflation and it will barely beat it without adjusting for inflation.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

... and will receive much more...

And I think that is a bit of an overstatement.

 

[Jick]

And I think that is a bit of an overstatement.

Not so.
It still has weeks to show and countries to open. It'll surpass the 300 million mark for sure.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Not so.
It still has weeks to show and countries to open. It'll surpass the 300 million mark for sure.

Well, perhaps our ideas of much more are quite different, lol. It's practically already at $300 million WW, so passing that is a no-brainer. Seeing another 10-15% more is about all it's got left, maybe 20% if Terminator and Museum don't crush the competition this weekend, which I doubt. Even Trek will get hit a lot harder this weekend I believe, holiday or not.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Here's what http://www.joesboxoffice.com/?p=2075#more-2075 had to say:

Wolverine
"Rebounding after last week’s mammoth fall, Wolverine has a decent weekend in its third weekend as it pulled another $14.8m and fell 44%. The film’s total is now up to $151m, which shows how far it will fall behind Star Trek. After an $85m opening, Wolverine doesn’t look like it will make it to $200m, quite an ouch. A final gross of about $190m seems in store, making it strong but nothing special as horrible word of mouth has set in. Still, the film has already pulled $123m overseas meaning another spinoff is likely in store."

Star Trek
"After a great opening last weekend, its clear that Star Trek is one of the first films of the year to have legs as audiences are talking about how great the film is. The flick is certainly expanding beyond the ‘Trekkie’ base as it has already become the highest grossing Trek film ever. Dropping 43% this weekend, the film pulled another sturdy $43m this weekend, pushing its total up to a stellar $147.6m after just two weeks.
In addition, the film has a pretty good $49m overseas so far. Paramount has a new franchise indeed, thanks to a great film with a hot young cast and a new energy. While Terminator and Night at the Museum will give Trek a rough go of it next weekend, Star Trek may play well into June. Where will it go from here? While it’s tough to say, Star Trek will not only surely pass $200m, but it could even make it all the way up to $275m before its done! That’s right folks, Star Trek will most assuredly be one of the five or so largest films of the year. Congrats to Paramount and America for showing up for good cinema."

I will say that I think his estimates of where both WO and ST will land should be a lil' more consevative. I would put WO at a final domestic tally of no higher than $180m and Trek should settle in around the $250m marker.

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Update! According to http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/star-trek-in-orbit-216m-worldwide/ , Star Trek's worldwide cume hits $216M! Paramount predicts it will "live long and prosper", and should do around $150 international and around $400M worldwide before the curtain closes. No movie in the franchise has ever cracked $100M overseas before and they've always had weak foreign appeal in years past, so this is great news!

 

[PSINGRAPHD]

Lastly, here's a summary of the weekend box office from http://www.boxofficeguru.com/weekend.htm :

Displaying amazing legs in its second weekend was the sci-fi reboot Star Trek which dropped by only 43% to bank an estimated $43M for a sturdy second place finish. That boosted the cume for the Paramount franchise flick to a stunning $147.6M in only 10.5 days. It was the biggest second weekend haul for any film since last summer's juggernaut The Dark Knight which grossed an eye-popping $75.2M in its sophomore session.
Trek's electric word-of-mouth has been spreading allowing the action pic to win new fans, generate repeat business, and keep Imax auditoriums full. In fact on Saturday, it was the number one film in North America edging out Angels & Demons by $500,000 thanks to a healthy 56% Friday-to-Saturday bump compared to just 8% for the Hanks film.
A 43% decline on the second weekend is unusually rare for heavily hyped sci-fi and action films. Trek's performance beat out sophomore drops for such blockbuster franchise tentpoles as The Dark Knight (53%), Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (55%), Quantum of Solace (60%), and Fast & Furious (62%). It was even better than the 48% fall that Iron Man witnessed on its way to a long and durable run during the summer box office last year. The Marvel hero was also released by Paramount with Thursday night previews and its $177.8M cume in the first 10.5 days accounted for 56% of its eventual $318.4M domestic final.
By Tuesday, the Kirk-and-Spock adventure will overtake Wolverine to become the top grossing summer film and will set the standard that all future event films this year will try to live up to. Based on its current course, the crew of the U.S.S. Enterprise should make its way past the $250M mark in North America and could soar much higher if it keeps playing this well.
Overseas, where the franchise has never been all that strong, the new Star Trek is working and playing like a fun action film for all audiences. This weekend it grossed another $21M from 57 markets to boost the foreign total to $70M and the global gross to $217.6M.
Former number one X-Men Origins: Wolverine fell a reasonable 44% in its third weekend to an estimated $14.8M pushing the 17-day total to $151.1M. A final domestic tally of $180-190M seems possible for Fox. Overseas, the Hugh Jackman actioner sliced up $13.5M from an ultrawide 103 markets raising the international haul to $144.5M and the worldwide tally to $295.6M.
With the mutant prequel and the Enterprise reboot, the box office has now seen a whopping seven films this year surpass $140M. Only two had reached that level at this same point last year - Iron Man and Horton Hears a Who.
Together, Wolverine, Trek, and Demons have grossed a combined $666M from theaters around the world kickstarting what should be a red hot summer ahead with likely blockbusters from the Terminator, Night at the Museum, Transformers, and Harry Potter franchises still to come.

 

[Superhero 101]

It should reach a total of 300-310 million hopefully

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

^Considering its total is not at $295 million, it'll get to a lot more than that $325-350 million WW is more likely now.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

So this has passed 300 WW now right? I forsee it finishing at around 330 million WW. Where is the person who told me I was dreaming when I said it would hit 300 million EASILY? I wanna laugh at them.

 

[chaseter]

I only talk about domestic. The foreign market is way too tough to predict.

 

[Downhere]

I only talk about domestic. The foreign market is way too tough to predict.

It's not that hard to predict the foreign market. With Wolverine, it only has a few more places to open in, the big ones being Mexico and Japan. I'm thinking it can pull in about $20 million from those markets and then another $10 or so million from all remaining markets and it should end up around $170-180 million internationally. I think it should also do another $25-30 million domestically. So, when it's all said and done, not a bad worldwide haul. It could/should have been better, but not the bomb everyone was claiming it to be.