Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[chaseter]

The ytd gross of 2009 as compared to 2008 is up 12.7%, 2007 is up 9.8%, and 2006 is up 18.2% according to boxofficemojo.

Here are the other articles:
http://www.lsureveille.com/entertai...y-sees-increase-in-box-office-sales-1.1619960

The current economic situation may be a horror for most businesses, but the movie industry is expecting a happy ending.

Ticket sales this year are up 17.5 percent to $1.7 billion, and attendance has risen nearly 16 percent, according to Media by Numbers, a box-office tracking company.

If attendance continues to increase at the same pace it has for the past six weeks, it would amount to the biggest box-office surge in at least two decades.

Here is one from Canada:
http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=451379&publicationSubCategoryId=471

The movie industry is now the beneficiary of the recession woes. North American box-office totals for the first two months of 2009 generated more than $770 million at the box office. Compared to previous annual revenues, 2009 is tracking as Hollywood’s most lucrative year ever, with over 20 percent increase over same-period totals from the past three years.

They also did a story about this years numbers expecting to be higher on E News. But, the articles are everywhere.

 

[chaseter]

People spending more money, yea. So what has that got to do with one individual film? They will probably spend more money on different films. Like I said, there is more big name films out this year than last year and previous years. People will be spreading their money out more, not just going back to one film over and over again.

Ace, when was I talking about 1 film

 

[danoyse]

This summer is on track to beat numbers from last year and all previous years. I never said one film was on track to beat all numbers. This summer and year will make more money than last summer and year and some analysts say it is because of the global recession coupled with lower gas prices as compared to last year.

It's actually down from last year already. According to an article in the LA Times this week, since summer movie season started on 5/1, box office reciepts have only risen 4.5% (compared to 17% in April).

Night at the Museum and Terminator Salvation combined was less than what Indiana Jones made over Memorial Day weekend last year. Outside of Star Trek, all of this year's summer event movies have performed less than the movies that were released at the same time last year.

April was helped by Fast & the Furious and Monsters vs Aliens, as well as Taken, which continued to play well into April. The winter was also helped by the success of (god help us) Paul Blart: Mall Cop, which did much better than expected.

Outside of Star Trek, nothing else seems to be holding up as well so far. TS is expected to have a big drop this weekend. Night at the Museum should hold up OK, but it's facing off against Pixar this weekend.

We still have Transformers and Harry Potter, which will be huge...but so far it's not looking nearly as good as last summer.

 

[chaseter]

Hey, I love Hugh, but outside of the X-Men movies he's never had a big hit film, so just having him in it alone would never have propelled this movie to $300 million.



X3 made the most money, but it's also the most critically mixed of the original trilogy. Couple that with this movie being a spinoff instead of a team film and there was bound to be some audience erosion this time. Fox's track record and months of online reports of the backstage drama behind the film certainly didn't help entice most of the fan community either.



Factor in that the movie was leaked online a month before it's release - regardless of the reaction of the film, there are plenty of people who did like the movie and didn't bother seeing in it in the theater because they watched the bootleg (a few of them work in my office), and those who didn't see it a second time because it was free to download.



I won't argue that the reaction and word-of-mouth overall was mixed at best and that it didn't have strong legs because of it. That's all true. I liked it, but I know if it had been better it would be making a whole lot more than it has.



But $300 million? Wasn't gonna happen.

I would say X3 did great because it was coming off of X2. This one did not do so good because it was coming of X3.



Also, I thought everyone pretty much agreed that the leak didn't hurt this film drastically? Didn't they do polls and the majority of people who saw the leak were still going to pay for the film? I would say the people that saw the leak and didn't go see the film were an extreme minority and didn't really affect the box office overall. Sure it probably lost a couple of million but word of mouth and reviews hurt this movie more than it being leaked. If it was a great film, I think it could have come close to 300 million and I think it should have beaten X3 or at the least X2 and X1.

 

[chaseter]

Here danoyse

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/?view2=ytdcompare&view=releasedate&p=.htm

 

[danoyse]

Also, I thought everyone pretty much agreed that the leak didn't hurt this film drastically? Didn't they do polls and the majority of people who saw the leak were still going to pay for the film? I would say the people that saw the leak and didn't go see the film were an extreme minority and didn't really affect the box office overall. Sure it probably lost a couple of million but word of mouth and reviews hurt this movie more than it being leaked. If it was a great film, I think it could have come close to 300 million and I think it should have beaten X3 or at the least X2 and X1.

I've read in a few places they think it lost upwards of $20 million because of the leak. It certainly would have had a higher opening weekend if it hadn't leaked. That bootleg was so readily available and so publicized (Newsweek was practically advertising the thing) that I can't imagine how many people watched it online.

I agree, if it had been better it would have made a lot more money regardless, but the leak definitely affected the box office.

 

[chaseter]

I've read in a few places they think it lost upwards of $20 million because of the leak. It certainly would have had a higher opening weekend if it hadn't leaked. That bootleg was so readily available and so publicized (Newsweek was practically advertising the thing) that I can't imagine how many people watched it online.

I agree, if it had been better it would have made a lot more money regardless, but the leak definitely affected the box office.

I agree it hurt it, a film leaking is never good. But, do you agree with me that had this film been better in the views of most people and critics, that this could have made a lot more?

I know the leak affected the world wide markets much more drastically as compared to domestic, especially in the more poor countries, but I never guesstimate or use WW numbers because the WW market is so unpredictable.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Ace, when was I talking about 1 film

Well you said Wolverine should of made more money because this year is set to break records.

And I said that this year breaking records has nothing to do with any individual film.

 

[chaseter]

Well you said Wolverine should of made more money because this year is set to break records.

And I said that this year breaking records has nothing to do with any individual film.

Wolverine could have made more because people are spending more money by going to the movies than they have in the previous years because of the recession...it is really is that simple to quote you. If they deemed that the movie was great, they would have seen it multiple times which would increase the legs and increase the box office take.

One could even say that Wolverine made more money than it would have had there not been a recession.

So, in conclusion, people are spending more money at the box office and this year is on track to beat last year...not one film is going to break all records set by a film in the previous years.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

People are spending more money, apparently. But are they spending more money on one movie, or are they spreading out their money to watch more movies because there is more big name movies out this year?

That's what I'm saying. I don't think ANY movie will make MEGA money this year simply because there is more movies to choose from than previous years.

Like last summer for instance. There was really only one movie to go and see, TDK. And yea that made a boatload of cash but one 1 billion dollar movie isn't the same as 5 or 6 300 million dollar movies.

 

[danoyse]

I agree it hurt it, a film leaking is never good. But, do you agree with me that had this film been better in the views of most people and critics, that this could have made a lot more?

I know the leak affected the world wide markets much more drastically as compared to domestic, especially in the more poor countries, but I never guesstimate or use WW numbers because the WW market is so unpredictable.

I totally agree. But as things are - plenty of people found out they didn't like this movie by watching it for free weeks before it was released instead of buying a ticket. Regardless of the quality of the movie, that took a bite out that opening weekend, because without the leak most of them wouldn't have known that until they actually bought a ticket and saw the movie.

It still would have dropped off the way it did, and the leak didn't hit the opening weekend as bad as they thought it would, but it definitely had an affect.

 

[chaseter]

People are spending more money, apparently. But are they spending more money on one movie, or are they spreading out their money to watch more movies because there is more big name movies out this year?

That's what I'm saying. I don't think ANY movie will make MEGA money this year simply because there is more movies to choose from than previous years.

Like last summer for instance. There was really only one movie to go and see, TDK. And yea that made a boatload of cash but one 1 billion dollar movie isn't the same as 5 or 6 300 million dollar movies.

I think we agree that TDK had circumstances that helped it out at the box office. It was a good movie but it had a lot of things goign for it outside of the movie, one was even a tragic circumstance. It also had pretty much no competition for weeks.

There were a lot of movies to see last year and imo, last year was filled with better movies than this year quality wise. So I disagree that people didn't have anything to see last year aside from TDK.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Well yea there was some good movies last year, but not big name "Wow let's go see that!" movies really. Look at Hellboy 2. IMO a great movie and deserved a good B.O. But it got completely blown away in it's second week due to TDK.

It's all about competition, and whether that competition is better quality sometimes doesn't matter, you should know that mate.

I'm just saying that this year has more big name movies to chose from than last year and previous years. The actual quality of these "big" films doesn't even matter, sometimes.

But saying all that I'm not excusing Wolverine. If it was a great movie it would of made more money, but not TOO much more is what I'm saying.

 

[chaseter]

I will agree with you that there are more bigger named franchises out this year than last year but that only goes in line with the fact that I mentioned, people are spending more money at the cinema due to the recession. I think we agree with each other but have misread each other's posts.

 

[danoyse]

I think we agree that TDK had circumstances that helped it out at the box office. It was a good movie but it had a lot of things goign for it outside of the movie, one was even a tragic circumstance. It also had pretty much no competition for weeks.

There were a lot of movies to see last year and imo, last year was filled with better movies than this year quality wise. So I disagree that people didn't have anything to see last year aside from TDK.

I don't compare anything to TDK - that was a phenomenon. I walked by a movie theater in NY at nearly 2am on it's opening night and it had a line around the block - at 2am!!!

I can't think of any movie in recent memory that caused that kind of movie theater hysteria, and I can't think of any movie in the near future that's going to come close to the kind of money it made.

 

[chaseter]

I don't compare anything to TDK - that was a phenomenon. I walked by a movie theater in NY at nearly 2am on it's opening night and it had a line around the block - at 2am!!!

I can't think of any movie in recent memory that caused that kind of movie theater hysteria, and I can't think of any movie in the near future that's going to come close to the kind of money it made.

It just had everything going for it. Things fell into place that don't happen on every film and it caused quite a stir and gave it a power boost at the box office. What makes me sad is because of that, we probably won't get a BB 3 from the same people because they are too scared to make one

 

[pyromaniac]

It just had everything going for it. Things fell into place that don't happen on every film and it caused quite a stir and gave it a power boost at the box office. What makes me sad is because of that, we probably won't get a BB 3 from the same people because they are too scared to make one

Nolan and the crew isn't known for playing it pedestrian, if you take my meaning. So I think BB3 will still go ahead. There's more story to be told, personally. Even Bale is signed on.

 

[pyromaniac]

But $300 million? Wasn't gonna happen.

I think they were probably hoping to go as far as $200 million and about there.

 

[chaseter]

Nolan and the crew isn't known for playing it pedestrian, if you take my meaning. So I think BB3 will still go ahead. There's more story to be told, personally. Even Bale is signed on.

They are all signed on...doesn't mean it will get made. Nolan himself has even said that he doesn't know if he can top TDK.

We will see another movie in this movieverse but not necessarily from the same people. WB will want another yes.

 

[pyromaniac]

They are all signed on...doesn't mean it will get made. Nolan himself has even said that he doesn't know if he can top TDK.

We will see another movie in this movieverse but not necessarily from the same people. WB will want another yes.

Once you can come to the solution that you can make a film on par with TDF, the pressure should be less considerable. It's not like you're necessarily going to get more $ if you're topping TDK.

 

[chaseter]

I would rather go out on top with a franchise than succumb to the threequel curse. Nolan isn't bound to Batman by any means.

 

[danoyse]

From the latest issue of Entertainment Weekly:

From 'Terminator' to 'Trek': Where's the Real Money?

By this time last year; the summer movie season had already delivered two of the biggest hits of all time: the surprise smash Iron Man (total gross: $318 million) and the no-shock-here Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (total gross: $317 million). (The Dark Knight joined the $300 million-plus club later, with a total gross of $533 million.)

Yet while the first month of this summer movie season has seen five hotly anticipated films deliver decent openings - X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Star Trek, Angels & Demons, Terminator Salvation, and the Night at the Museum sequel - none could muster even $90 million out of the gate, and none is expected to cross the $300 million mark.

If that's the new benchmark for certifiable pop-phenom status, then that leaves only three contenders for 2009: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - although it's predecessor, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, narrowly missed, conjuring $292 million - and Avatar.

(The last time the industry failed to churn out even one $300 million movie? Back in 2000, when Dr. Suess' How the Grinch Stole Christmas topped that year's box office with $260 million.)

Of course, the absence of a true megahit does have one silver lining: fewer SOLD OUT! signs.

Of course I tried to see UP in digital 3D tonight, but all the shows were sold out.

 

[LastSunrise1981]

From the latest issue of Entertainment Weekly:




Of course I tried to see UP in digital 3D tonight, but all the shows were sold out.

All of that is going to change when Transformers 2 and Harry Potter is released.

I work at a theatre and UP was getting a pretty good crowd. Not sure how did during the night since I got off at 5 and work until 6 tomorrow.

 

[X-Maniac]

It's difficult to make a realistic assessment on this site, as there are a lot of obsessive fanboy types (who judge/nitpick harshly, see films they love multiple times)...and also a lot of people involved in the movie business, either through working at cinema/theater chains, or in marketing departments or other promotional involvements (so they hype things up).

It's true that we have had a lot of 'big' films released close together. If they were more spread out, they wouldn't bite into each other so much. Some people just go randomly to the cinema, and pick a movie when they're there - so if there's something new, they will opt for that.

Having said that, I'm the only person I know (off this site) who sees any film more than once. NO ONE else I know in the real world goes back to see ANY film again, even if they loved it. And there are people i know who don't rush to see a movie either - my co-worker Marion saw Wolverine on its second or third week, there's a guy at work who is a real superhero fanatic yet, because of his work hours (he's a sports writer) it takes him weeks and weeks and weeks to get to find time to see a movie.

What I've seen in the real world is this: First weekend of Wolverine was packed, audience seemed to like it. First weekend of Star Trek - not that packed at all, not a lot of laughs either. Star Trek at IMAX (on its second weekend) - totally, absolutely packed and heaving with people, massive lines of people, sold out performances, people loved it, a total 'experience.'
Went back to see Wolverine at normal cinema, was very quiet, but large crowds going to Star Trek - even saw a group of older people (in their 60s or 70s) outside in the car park trying to do the Vulcan salute! I so wish i had a camera with me.

Those individual experiences seem reflected in Wolverine's relatively high opening weekend, Star Trek's solid but lower opening, and Star Trek's stratospheric IMAX ticket sales and good legs.

I think Wolverine should have been in IMAX, but it wasn't. (I saw all three X-Men movies in IMAX at an all-night screening in London, brilliant!)

Fox did say they lost $20million on Wolverine through the film leak, which is probably about right. We've had no update on whether anyone has ever been caught for this

Variety also said at one point that box office this year was 7 per cent higher than the same time last year, or something like that. But maybe it's no longer higher than last year.

Terminator Salvation has limited appeal, and I'm really not sure about Transformers, but i expect Harry Potter to be another big family draw like Star Trek. Transformers is going to be boosted by IMAX.

 

[danoyse]

I read this weekend that Terminator was playing well to the 18+ crowd, and it wasn't getting the younger crowd they were hoping for with the PG-13 rating. I thinking Transformers is more of the hot property for that demographic right now. Terminator was huge when I was in high school (I saw the midnight show of T2), but it's been awhile since that was really in the mainstream.

I think Transformers is going to be huge, Harry Potter as well (especially since it was delayed from November). Both are also opening in IMAX, so that will boost ticket sales too.

I'm also one of the few people I know that see movies multiple times. They come out on DVD so fast now that there's no point in really going again. Even I do it rarely anymore - and if I do, I try going to the pre-noon show because it's only $6.

The only reason I saw Wolverine again last weekend (not that I'm complaining) was because my best friend wanted to see it. And for an 11am show, I was actually surprised to find a decent amount of people in the theater. And we had a great time, my friend loved it.