Snikt! Wolverine's Box Office Predictions

[Spider-Vader]

I expect Transformers & Potter to be the only movies that gross over 300 million this year. 2011 will be a monster movie year though. 2012 should also do good just because of Avengers & (if it's released that year) Batman 3.

 

[usagicassidy]

Having said that, I'm the only person I know (off this site) who sees any film more than once. NO ONE else I know in the real world goes back to see ANY film again, even if they loved it. And there are people i know who don't rush to see a movie either - my co-worker Marion saw Wolverine on its second or third week, there's a guy at work who is a real superhero fanatic yet, because of his work hours (he's a sports writer) it takes him weeks and weeks and weeks to get to find time to see a movie.

Seriously? I don't know about the other people on this site, but I saw X-Men 4 times, X2 6 times, and X-Men: TLS 3 times in theaters.

I don't really have the money, but if it's good, and I really like it, I'll see a movie twice - this used to happen a lot more than it does now, but I've seen Star Trek twice and I've already seen UP and can bet I'll see it again before its run is done.

 

[Theweepeople]

Seriously? I don't know about the other people on this site, but I saw X-Men 4 times, X2 6 times, and X-Men: TLS 3 times in theaters.

I don't really have the money, but if it's good, and I really like it, I'll see a movie twice - this used to happen a lot more than it does now, but I've seen Star Trek twice and I've already seen UP and can bet I'll see it again before its run is done.

I know plenty of people not contributing to this website that see movies multiple times in the theaters. Pretty much all my friends, relatives, and aquaintances tell me about the multiple times they go to see popular summer blockbuster films every year.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

I don't know anyone who goes to the cinema multiple times, unless they come with me. Out of all my friends there is only a few of us who are really into movies, myself included of course.

 

[Theweepeople]

I don't know anyone who goes to the cinema multiple times, unless they come with me. Out of all my friends there is only a few of us who are really into movies, myself included of course.

I guess it depends on the movies and the people you associate with. The summer movies are the only ones that are seen multiple times by the people I know. Of course this summer is a little different from the norm because most films released have turned out to be disappointing so there's little reason to see most of these films more than once. On the other hand Star Trek is the most talked about film in all of my social enviroments whether it's at a relatives home, my chiropractor's office, or work. I know plenty of people who've seen this movie multiple times and most of these people aren't fanboys or comic book fans.

 

[danoyse]

Seriously? I don't know about the other people on this site, but I saw X-Men 4 times, X2 6 times, and X-Men: TLS 3 times in theaters.

I don't really have the money, but if it's good, and I really like it, I'll see a movie twice - this used to happen a lot more than it does now, but I've seen Star Trek twice and I've already seen UP and can bet I'll see it again before its run is done.

He meant besides people who post on sites like this. Most of us see movies multiple times in the theater if we like them. Most people I know outside of internet-land usually only see them once.

I've seen Wolverine 3 times and I'm hoping to catch Star Trek again at the IMAX soon. But first I want to see UP.

 

[chaseter]

It's difficult to make a realistic assessment on this site, as there are a lot of obsessive fanboy types (who judge/nitpick harshly, see films they love multiple times)...and also a lot of people involved in the movie business, either through working at cinema/theater chains, or in marketing departments or other promotional involvements (so they hype things up).

It's true that we have had a lot of 'big' films released close together. If they were more spread out, they wouldn't bite into each other so much. Some people just go randomly to the cinema, and pick a movie when they're there - so if there's something new, they will opt for that.

Having said that, I'm the only person I know (off this site) who sees any film more than once. NO ONE else I know in the real world goes back to see ANY film again, even if they loved it. And there are people i know who don't rush to see a movie either - my co-worker Marion saw Wolverine on its second or third week, there's a guy at work who is a real superhero fanatic yet, because of his work hours (he's a sports writer) it takes him weeks and weeks and weeks to get to find time to see a movie.

What I've seen in the real world is this: First weekend of Wolverine was packed, audience seemed to like it. First weekend of Star Trek - not that packed at all, not a lot of laughs either. Star Trek at IMAX (on its second weekend) - totally, absolutely packed and heaving with people, massive lines of people, sold out performances, people loved it, a total 'experience.'
Went back to see Wolverine at normal cinema, was very quiet, but large crowds going to Star Trek - even saw a group of older people (in their 60s or 70s) outside in the car park trying to do the Vulcan salute! I so wish i had a camera with me.

Those individual experiences seem reflected in Wolverine's relatively high opening weekend, Star Trek's solid but lower opening, and Star Trek's stratospheric IMAX ticket sales and good legs.

I think Wolverine should have been in IMAX, but it wasn't. (I saw all three X-Men movies in IMAX at an all-night screening in London, brilliant!)

Fox did say they lost $20million on Wolverine through the film leak, which is probably about right. We've had no update on whether anyone has ever been caught for this

Variety also said at one point that box office this year was 7 per cent higher than the same time last year, or something like that. But maybe it's no longer higher than last year.

Terminator Salvation has limited appeal, and I'm really not sure about Transformers, but i expect Harry Potter to be another big family draw like Star Trek. Transformers is going to be boosted by IMAX.

What I saw in the real world was a packed theatre for Star Trek and everyone leaving had better things to say about it than Wolverine. What I also saw was a low drop second weekend which says something about the quality. Star Trek also only opened 10 million less than Wolverine and that isn't counting the Thursday shows so I don't get what you are getting at. It has also surpassed Wolverine's domestic take already. What does any of that matter and how does it compare to Wolverine

Transformers will be big, there is no doubt about it and so will Harry Potter.

 

[X-Maniac]

What I saw in the real world was a packed theatre for Star Trek and everyone leaving had better things to say about it than Wolverine. What I also saw was a low drop second weekend which says something about the quality. Star Trek also only opened 10 million less than Wolverine and that isn't counting the Thursday shows so I don't get what you are getting at. It has also surpassed Wolverine's domestic take already. What does any of that matter and how does it compare to Wolverine

I was relating my real-world experiences. I'm not disputing that Star Trek has overtaken Wolverine's DOMESTIC take or that, overall, it's a better-flowing story.

You really are an irritating little mosquito. Constant OCD niggling and fussing over everything. I clearly pointed out the packed IMAX for Star Trek but I also pointed out I didn't experience a packed opening weekend, which is consistent with Star Trek's solid but unspectactular opening.

In other words, my real-world experiences were reflected in these films' general performance.

By the way, the island had a bridge. Niggle on that.

 

[X-Maniac]

He meant besides people who post on sites like this. Most of us see movies multiple times in the theater if we like them. Most people I know outside of internet-land usually only see them once

Exactly. I've seen Wolverine three times (once was a press screening) and Star Trek twice. Most people at work think I'm mad for going more than once!!!

 

[danoyse]

You really are an irritating little mosquito. Constant OCD niggling and fussing over everything. I clearly pointed out the packed IMAX for Star Trek but I also pointed out I didn't experience a packed opening weekend, which is consistent with Star Trek's solid but unspectactular opening.

Let's try to refrain from the name-calling, please.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Yes, let's show a little maturity here people!

So what is this US at the mo? Gotta be near the 170 mark right?

 

[chaseter]

I was relating my real-world experiences. I'm not disputing that Star Trek has overtaken Wolverine's DOMESTIC take or that, overall, it's a better-flowing story.

You really are an irritating little mosquito. Constant OCD niggling and fussing over everything. I clearly pointed out the packed IMAX for Star Trek but I also pointed out I didn't experience a packed opening weekend, which is consistent with Star Trek's solid but unspectactular opening.

In other words, my real-world experiences were reflected in these films' general performance.

By the way, the island had a bridge. Niggle on that.

How is Star Trek's opening unspectacular when compared to Wolverine it only made 10 million less and that isn't even counting the 7 million that was made on Thursday

You can like this movie which is fine. You can talk about what you liked and what you didn't like, so can I. But, I love the way some of you pick at other movies to defend this one. It is funny to see some people point at the flaws of other movies to mask this one.

I can niggle all I want and if you don't like it then don't respond to my posts.

 

[Downhere]

Yes, let's show a little maturity here people!

So what is this US at the mo? Gotta be near the 170 mark right?

According to weekend estimates, it is at 170.9 million after a 3.9 million weekend.

http://www.entdata.com/charts/index_print.html

I'm going to think it should have enough steam to make 180 million an attainable option. It will probably get close to it and we will have to see if the "cheap" theater run will push it past that mark when it gets to that.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

I don't think people are pointing out flaws of other movies to disguise the flaws of this one. I think it's just people pointing out that other movies also have flaws, but in some cases they are ignored or deemed unimportant. When the flaws of this film are highlighted and deemed very important.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

According to weekend estimates, it is at 170.9 million after a 3.9 million weekend.

http://www.entdata.com/charts/index_print.html

I'm going to think it should have enough steam to make 180 million an attainable option. It will probably get close to it and we will have to see if the "cheap" theater run will push it past that mark when it gets to that.

Cool. Ye I think it will finish up around 340 WW.

 

[chaseter]

I don't think people are pointing out flaws of other movies to disguise the flaws of this one. I think it's just people pointing out that other movies also have flaws, but in some cases they are ignored or deemed unimportant. When the flaws of this film are highlighted and deemed very important.

We have other forums for people to talk about the flaws in those movies.

Every movie has flaws, I don't think anybody will disagree with that.

 

[Ace of Knaves]

Well I don't see how those sorta discussions shouldn't be in this forum. Maybe not in this thread though na.

I see the flaws of this film, the ones that spank you across the face anyway. But I ain't gonna go looking for or highlighting the flaws because that would be to the detriment of my enjoyment. It doesn't effect anyone else but yourself, so I don't see the point in looking for little flaws.

 

[chaseter]

Well I don't see how those sorta discussions shouldn't be in this forum. Maybe not in this thread though na.

I see the flaws of this film, the ones that spank you across the face anyway. But I ain't gonna go looking for or highlighting the flaws because that would be to the detriment of my enjoyment. It doesn't effect anyone else but yourself, so I don't see the point in looking for little flaws.

Apparently not.

Anyways, back on topic.

 

[Celestial]

Cool. Ye I think it will finish up around 340 WW.

Better than that. Before the weekend, it was already at $160m overseas. It made $7m last weekend but it opened in Mexico this weekend, so that should push the overseas numbers up especially as the first major film to open after the swine flu crisis. Still Japan and India to come.

Star Trek went into the weekend with about $90m overseas including $11.5m last weekend. It opened in Japan this weekend and Mexico next weekend. India, Hong Kong and possibly China to go. It's a close call as to whether Wolverine or Star Trek ends up with the bigger worldwide total.

Angels & Demons made around $58m overseas last weekend and was up to $209m before the weekend so it should beat both ST and Wolverine worldwide.

 

[X-Maniac]

How is Star Trek's opening unspectacular when compared to Wolverine it only made 10 million less and that isn't even counting the 7 million that was made on Thursday

Well, it was predicted to outdo Wolverine on its launch. It didn't. Wolverine was harmed (to the tune of $20million or so) by an illegal leak. Star Trek wasn't.

You can like this movie which is fine. You can talk about what you liked and what you didn't like, so can I. But, I love the way some of you pick at other movies to defend this one. It is funny to see some people point at the flaws of other movies to mask this one.

No one is trying to 'mask' any flaws. But we're wondering why flaws in other films are overlooked. The answer is simple - You didn't like the film so you are deliberately looking for flaws.

I didn't hear you raising as much fuss about Wolverine's claws wobbling when the cat licks them in X2, or how the level of drink in Wolverine's soda bottle goes up and down in the kitchen scene of that film.

The fact is that overall you enjoyed X2 more so you are willing to overlook flaws. So all this plothole poop isn't really the issue at all. It's the perceived overall directorial craft. If you perceive that there was more craft (ie if you like the director), then they can make all the mistakes they want and you will forgive them. Don't try to pull the wool over people's eyes. You were so blind with bias against Wolverine that you failed even to notice there was a bridge.

I don't even like Wolverine THAT MUCH - I gave it a 7, just one more than your score of 6. But the difference between us is your OCD nitpicking, which proves the problem is you, not the film.

By the way, there was a bridge. In case you hadn't absorbed that fact yet.

 

[Chewy]

Well, it was predicted to outdo Wolverine on its launch. It didn't. Wolverine was harmed (to the tune of $20million or so) by an illegal leak. Star Trek wasn't.

No it wasn't

It surpassed most predictions with its $75M opening weekend

 

[Downhere]

Well, Wolverine has climbed to 170 million internationally, with help from it's Mexican premiere. Therefore it has reached $340 million worldwide. I'm thinking this may match Batman Begins worldwide total of $371 million. Another 10 million domestically and another $20 million internationally could happen. If not then $360 million worldwide seems assured.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118004347.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

Fox's "X-Men Origins: Wolverine" put its claws on $8.1 million at 5,000 including $4.4 million from its delayed Mexican launch for the top 2009 opener in that market. "Wolverine" has cumed $170.1 million outside the United States, nearly matching the domestic total.

 

[danoyse]

Chaseter and X-Maniac, if you to plan to continue using this thread to snipe about the movie, take it to PMs or one of the threads that's more specific to the topic. Once again, civil conversation is awesome.

Sounds like it had a good opening in Mexico - finally! Glad to see Pixar had a great opening weekend too.

 

[chaseter]

Anyways, back on topic.

Chaster and X-Maniac, if you to plan to continue using this thread to snipe about the movie, take it to PMs or one of the threads that's more specific to the topic. Once again, civil conversation is awesome.

Sounds like it had a good opening in Mexico - finally! Glad to see Pixar had a great opening weekend too.

hey wtf...didn't even spell my name right I also appreciate you asking him to stop the name calling but he didn't get the message.

 

[danoyse]

hey wtf...didn't even spell my name right

Fixed. Sorry about that. I'm modding and doing laundry, had no time to spell-check.

I also appreciate you asking him to stop the name calling but he didn't get the message.

Hopefully it's been heard loud and clear by now. I won't be posting anymore warnings about that.