Star Trek into Darkness Box Office Prediction Thread

[Saitou Hajime]

STiD's OW appears to be a bigger meltdown-inducing roller coaster than IM3's. Rth over at BOT is estimating 21-23M for Friday. Quite the head scratcher

 

[BMM]

Or that many moviegoers didn't realize it was out Thursday, since it was a last-minute change. My sister had no idea it was already out when we told her we were on our way to see it yesterday. She thought it was out today.

I had no idea either. I would have gone on Thursday, had I known, because I'm not going to be able to make it this weekend.

 

[Tony Stark]

STiD's OW appears to be a bigger meltdown-inducing roller coaster than IM3's. Rth over at BOT is estimating 21-23M for Friday. Quite the head scratcher

Yeah the, prediction dropped overnight. The 4 year layoff killed the momentum of this franchise.

I still think this film will have good legs.

 

[roach]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-star-trek-524961

looks to be on target with what Paramount was predicting...80-100mil...it's on track to hit 83mil

 

[roach]

why because of Fast 6 ?

Zooming out of the gate, Fast & Furious 6 debuted in the U.K. and Ireland on Friday, grossing $4.6 million and marking the best opening performance ever for a Universal title in those territories.

 

[The Caped Knight]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-star-trek-524961

looks to be on target with what Paramount was predicting...80-100mil...it's on track to hit 83mil

Awesome!

 

[Tony Stark]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-star-trek-524961

looks to be on target with what Paramount was predicting...80-100mil...it's on track to hit 83mil

which is the studio trying to backtrack. 83 million means this was likely lower attended than the 2009 film.

The good news is it received an A rating from cinemascore, which should mean it will have a good run. However I don't see this film making more than 300m domestic and possibly earning less than the first film.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

4-day was projected to $100-$110M. Now its down to $83M. With 3D and IMAX surcharges. No way to spin this. That is bad.

 

[roach]

from the article:
Into Darkness should benefit from a coveted A CinemaScore and generally upbeat reviews, although some had expected the movie to open close to $100 million (Paramount had always estimated $80 million to $100 million).

 

[Marvin]

I'm glad JJ directed this, otherwise we would get all those many commentators speaking on the idea of:

"Man if only JJ didn't leave, he was truly great, and that first film was clearly the result of having a superior director."

As I always say, film enthusiasts and sports fans alike, are a superstitious and sometimes cowardly lot.

 

[Marvin]

I love Trek, I like this series and I like this movie.

I do think many people here were over estimating it's appeal coming off of the first film however. One look at that films BO numbers say it all.

 

[Liam_H]

A four-day $83 million total is disappointing. Unless this movie is gonna have large jumps or does something weird I think around $200 million domestic is the best it can do.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

My guess would be a 90-92 million OW.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think it is going to have trouble matching '09 domestic take.

 

[Tony Stark]

I love Trek, I like this series and I like this movie.

I do think many people here were over estimating it's appeal coming off of the first film however. One look at that films BO numbers say it all.

I thought the 120m predictions were too high, but I thought 90-110 was doable with inflation and 3D boost.

My honest opinion is that the poor marketing and 4 year hiatus, killed this franchise and it is essentially starting from ground zero again. Paramont dropped the ball on this, and they should have locked Abrams into a multi - picture deal.

Trek has been around for 50 years and this is certainly salvageable, but they need to put a long term plan together now.

 

[DarthAlani]

They need to go with a different direction and writing team with the next film. And keep it out of May.

 

[TheVileOne]

Movie shouldn't have tried to force crappy, useless converted 3D on us, but whatever. That's the world we're in now.

But yeah that would be an under-performance. Paramount wanted a $100 million four day opener, they aren't going to get that.

Honestly, I think these Wednesday/Thursday openings unless its a holiday or whatever are stupid, but whatevs.

 

[Tony Stark]

Movie shouldn't have tried to force crappy, useless converted 3D on us, but whatever. That's the world we're in now.

But yeah that would be an under-performance. Paramount wanted a $100 million four day opener, they aren't going to get that.

Honestly, I think these Wednesday/Thursday openings unless its a holiday or whatever are stupid, but whatevs.

Especially when you advertise the movie coming out on May 17th, and then at the 11th hour, go and open the film two days earlier.

 

[TheVileOne]

Yes because if its all about front loading the opening weekend, why spread it so thin?

 

[Marvin]

Paramount loves pulling that late in the game release date switcharoo, they did it with the TF films twice. At first I thought they were just getting cold feet about the tracking numbers on their 3 day and they wanted to have just a bigger opening number to advertise.

It can't be the whole, they want to get extra days before the competition opens thing. They've known about the comp for over a year. Moreover, that might explain a wednesday or even Tuesday like ASM. This here just seems like a last minute call that's confusing to everyone involved...especially JJ.

I still think Trek belongs in the winter. It's just so cozy.
STID is going to be crushed next weekend, meanwhile hunger games is going to have the most comfortable release date of all time.

 

[TheVileOne]

It was a bad move.

They should've just kept it all on Friday.

Now they are going to try and spin this as it surpassing expectations when it didn't.

And I got to be honest, trying to keep everything super secret IMHO backfired.

Listen, I enjoy these movies but stop trying to pretend they are Lost. This isn't Lost.

 

[Octoberist]

Yeah they should've left it on Friday.

 

[Marvin]

Take every move that paramount made here, apply it to TDK and the flaws are apparent. Even the half a year wait.

Imagine they didn't advertise the joker lol.

 

[Warhammer]

It's a damn shame.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

It's a damn shame.

It would be if it was of the same quality as the first.