Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 1

[JKKS085]

I have already acknowledged that prior to your post.I posted that bit of info myself.The rebated amount is still quite higher than SS's supposed budget.Anyway,I think Ive said enough about this subject.I will now wait for the updated amounts that will be posted on sunday/monday.Im out.

Fair enough. Then maybe stop bringing up that innacurate number and/or quote articles using them to try and make a ludicrous point. Just sayin'.

 

[idiot09]

If they're relying on home video, TV and merchandise to turn any kind of profit, it's not great. And those are projections of course, not hard numbers.

Ofcourse with better BO the profit margin would be higher.But still credit where its due,they are bringing in the cash.From what I read the MOS numbers are confirmed,and the BvS ones were projections.Last I checked BvS was dominating home video sales.

 

[Kathemy]

More comparisons:

Opening weekend relative to 8-day total gross:
Suicide Squad: 63.58%
Batman v Superman: 67.37%

(Lower is better.)

 

[Benal]

Notice where I say probable p&a budget to match?

Also, you quote some movies there that are all considered underperformers.

Notice that Suicide Squad is not the only movie with a p&a budget?

Underperformers? Compared to expectations - maybe. But they're still considered success, objectively. Thor 2, for example? brought $140m for Disney, according to Deadline.

 

[Kathemy]

My final domestic box office prediction after day 8: $298,676,561

 

[Longshot777]

Conflicting reports saying it did not beat GOTG 2nd week of $42 million but then it says SS made $44 million

????

 

[Kathemy]

Sunday isn't even in the books yet, no point counting.

By the way the prediction I posted shifts depending on which days you use as the cutoff to calculate its legs. All in all I'm thinking around 300m either way.

 

[idiot09]

My final domestic box office prediction after day 8: $298,676,561

A.How can you predict something so accurate to the 9th digit?

B.How much do you think it will do worldwide?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Conflicting reports saying it did not beat GOTG 2nd week of $42 million but then it says SS made $44 million

????

On aggregate figure SS would be ahead of GOTG but if we assume that SS makes 44 million in 2nd weekend then it has a drop off of 67% from it's OW and GOTG had a 2nd weekend drop off of just 56%.

Kathemy is right, we don't have the Sunday figure yet so it's pointless to count numbers we know nothing about.

 

[Kathemy]

A.How can you predict something so accurate to the 9th digit?

B.How much do you think it will do worldwide?

It's not an accurate prediction, it was simply the result I got from the numbers I used. Of course it won't make that. I was calculating based on BvS' legs with an adjustment for the objective decline of SS vs BvS with weekend vs 8-day take. If I'd used the first 4 days vs the last 4 days it would've been a better number (~315m). It's a very rough prediction.

Since SS hasn't premiered in all countries yet I'm expecting the international box office to be a bit higher (maybe 40m or so.)

 

[take3]

 

[JKKS085]

More comparisons:

Opening weekend relative to 8-day total gross:
Suicide Squad: 63.58%
Batman v Superman: 67.37%

(Lower is better.)

Weekdays are stronger during the summer in relation to the week end numbers. Comparing SS to BvS is really not a good metric.

 

[harlequinade]

67% drop. How's that dishonest marketing paying off?

 

[Kathemy]

Weekdays are stronger during the summer in relation to the week end numbers. Comparing SS to BvS is really not a good metric.

We have the week 2 Friday and Saturday numbers as well, let's see if the picture changes with the Sunday ones.

 

[JKKS085]

Apocalypse and Days of Future Past especially are really up high on that chart because they've been released during Memorial Day week ends thus posting inflated opening week ends and dropping harder on their 2nd week ends. Chart is missing X-Men Origins Wolverine at -69% although I assume they only referenced movies from this decade on purpose.

 

[Kathemy]

I would also like to point out that Box Office Mojo has yet to count several international figures, for example Sweden (my home country) doesn't show despite being released prior to United States.

 

[JKKS085]

I would also like to point out that Box Office Mojo has yet to count several international figures, for example Sweden (my home country) doesn't show despite being released prior to United States.

They update the individual country numbers later on but the os total is up to date.

 

[Kathemy]

They update the individual country numbers later on but the os total is up to date.

Thank you, I wasn't sure if that was the case.

 

[xenos5]

Let's assume SS get the same legs as BvS, 133.7 x 2 = 267M. OS it's already banked 192M, let's assume it will get the same short legs as BvS, 67% drop second weekend, so that's 133 x 1/3 = 44M, meaning SS will have 503M including total Dom and 10 days OS. Let's say the second week OS total of 103M gets big drops of 60% per week until the end of its run, which would be 41+16+6+2.5+1 = 66.5M, that makes it 503+66.5= about 570M. So it's already passed your higher end 550M estimate and wayyyy over the 500M estimate, and that's based on BvS legs or worse, WITHOUT Germany, Italy and Japan!

And BvS OS drop was huge because China pulled about 80% of sceens after 10 days, so the drop was worse due to that, but that factor don't come in for SS, but I still used the same legs for you.

So after this weekend SS will have about 240M OS along with 222M Dom, so that's 462M, it should get another 100M OS from here and 78M Dom, that's 640M, then add Germany, Italy and Japan, thus the 650-700M, if it ends up not having China.

SS has 17.8M on Sat, so all set for around 44M (basing on some estimates from BOT guys of course), and that means it's on its way to 300M, considering SP has a B, Pete's Dragon is dead unfortunately, and there are no big releases for a few weeks and Labor day is on the 5th weekend.

Firstly. I think its way too early to say its gonna make it to 300m domestically for certain.

Secondly How is it getting another 100 mil domestically? I don't see that at all.

I think you're being waaaaaaaay too optimistic with this film. This result that you want to happen is in no way realistic.

Also. I'd consider Kubo and the two strings competition. Its a well marketed animated film that has an interesting visual style.

 

[Zero_Effect]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya

$58.7M intl wknd for #SuicideSquad, down 56%. Intl total now $242.5M, global rises to $465.4M. Germany & Japan to come.

 

[Kathemy]

Further comparison:

Fri-Sat w1 vs Fri-Sat w2 (thus ignores weekdays)

Batman v Superman: $132,215,593 vs $37,348,575 (w2: 28.25%)
Suicide Squad: $103,472,080 vs $31,150,000 (w2: 30.11%)

Practically no matter which numbers you compare, Suicide Squad has a legs multiplier of 5% or more on Batman v Superman.

 

[Pokkle]

That's not good.

Me I don't know but he is saying this:

"How does this stack up against the film’s costs? Well, first of all I can tell you that these $800 million “break-even point” claims floating around are false.
The film needs to do about $600 million in global ticket sales to cover the shooting budget (including reshoots) plus marketing costs, since the studio will only get about half of the box office receipts to cover the combined costs that total roughly $300 million. Claims in the press of marketing exceeding $150-200 million are gross exaggerations, as are rumors of costly reshoots that pushed the filming budget closer toward the $200 million range."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhug...s-despite-medias-gloom-and-doom/#45158a486f4e

 

[JKKS085]

43.77M estimated for the week end which is a 67.2% drop. Barely beating GotG 2nd week end despite opening 40M higher.

 

[Kathemy]

Guesstimating Germany and Japan to add $25m-$30m to the final OS.

 

[JKKS085]

Further comparison:

Fri-Sat w1 vs Fri-Sat w2 (thus ignores weekdays)

Batman v Superman: $132,215,593 vs $37,348,575 (w2: 28.25%)
Suicide Squad: $103,472,080 vs $31,150,000 (w2: 30.11%)

Practically no matter which numbers you compare, Suicide Squad has a legs multiplier of 5% or more on Batman v Superman.

Sounds about right. And I think that very limited competition and summer week days is likely to reinforce that trend. It should get a final multiplier around 2.2/2.25 which would put its dom number just shy of 300M (maybe above if WB gives it a push). Still very weak for a non-sequel summer release but not a complete record breaking disaster like BvS either.