Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 1

[kguillou]

I agree, even though I do like all the DCEU films so far, there's no denying that DCEU can do much better than what they have done so far. They hafta sort out a few bts issues and we'll get better and more unanimously appreciated movies.

I would like to think WB exec's are taking note and the appointment of Geoff Johns and Jon Berg in prominent roles in DC Films augurs well for DCEU.

They definitely are. Trust me. The negative press is probably causing a lot of tension in the exec offices right now. They want good press a la Guardians of the galaxy. They want these properties to be phenomenons. That's where the real money is. I think they've heard the message loud and clear and will course correct.

In the meantime I am happy this is doing well so they can greenlight a sequel.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Suicide Squad made 8.3 million on Thursday.

Deadline update
Deadline estimates around 20 million for Sausage Party
And are sticking to an over 50 million second week for SS

Sausage Party is opening big. it was initially projected to make around 15 million. Should be a big hit with the adult demographic.

Anyway SS making anything north of 52 million is great news. t:

 

[Blitzkrieg]

They definitely are. Trust me. The negative press is probably causing a lot of tension in the exec offices right now. They want good press a la Guardians of the galaxy. They want these properties to be phenomenons. That's where the real money is. I think they've heard the message loud and clear and will course correct.

In the meantime I am happy this is doing well so they can greenlight a sequel.

Exactly my thoughts, I hope SS makes enough money to get a sequel.

 

[brandeezy89]

The issues with the good numbers is this may entice WB to do more of what they are doing instead of taking more care of their properties. It's fine for fans of the DCEU universe, but a lot of other fans, it could mean more of the same type of storytelling.

Even though WB may be happy with the SS numbers, they're already screwed overall when it comes to the profit they've made this year from total WB movies which the investors won't like.

 

[Iceman]

The issues with the good numbers is this may entice WB to do more of what they are doing instead of taking more care of their properties. It's fine for fans of the DCEU universe, but a lot of other fans, it could mean more of the same type of storytelling.

SS was already in motion when they heard about the BvS reception. I think WB will have taken that (much worse than expected) BvS reaction from both critics and fans, hardcore and casual, to heart as it is the biggest warning and wake up call that the path to billions from their core films is not straightforward. The JL films are the ones with the highest potential numbers and those are the ones directly at risk after BvS.

 

[idiot09]

http://deadline.com/2016/08/weekend-box-office-suicide-squad-sausage-party-petes-dragon-1201802677/

"Suicide Squad to rule second weekend with $51M-$54M box office!"

 

[Blitzkrieg]

http://deadline.com/2016/08/weekend-box-office-suicide-squad-sausage-party-petes-dragon-1201802677/

"Suicide Squad to rule second weekend with $51M-$54M box office!"

Up top bro.

 

[DeadStroke]

http://deadline.com/2016/08/weekend-box-office-suicide-squad-sausage-party-petes-dragon-1201802677/

"Suicide Squad to rule second weekend with $51M-$54M box office!"

sort of a big drop though right?

 

[FunkMiller]

http://deadline.com/2016/08/weekend-box-office-suicide-squad-sausage-party-petes-dragon-1201802677/

"Suicide Squad to rule second weekend with $51M-$54M box office!"

That's around 60% drop, which would be excellent. BVS was 69%

 

[Knight-Tale]

http://deadline.com/2016/08/weekend-box-office-suicide-squad-sausage-party-petes-dragon-1201802677/

"Suicide Squad to rule second weekend with $51M-$54M box office!"

If we are including the thursday number into that figure it could make that much
otherwise I think 40-43 mil this weekend

 

[ManWithNoName18]

If it drops under 65% that would be good.

 

[idiot09]

Up top bro.

This is indeed good news.Tracking can be off sometimes,but I'm hoping for the best.

Ive always said from the beginning,that this is an audience friendly movie.Maybe...just maybe..it was not such a bad decision by WB to remove the controversial elements of the movie and inject more energy/fun into it.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

sort of a big drop though right?

If it makes 54 million, then it will be a 60% drop from OW which in my opinion is really very good. WB will be vey happy with those figures.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

If we are including the thursday number into that figure it could make that much
otherwise I think 40-43 mil this weekend

That is insane. no way it drops 70% from OW numbers and thursday numbers are definitely not included in there.

 

[FunkMiller]

If it makes 54 million, then it will be a 60% drop from OW which in my opinion is really very good. WB will be vey happy with those figures.

Happy? They'll be having ****ing orgasms if it drops 60% or less.

 

[FunkMiller]

That is insane. no way it drops 70%.

My figure was always 67%. Looking increasingly unlikely now, but I'm sticking by it because I'm a stubborn ********.

 

[Erzengel]

Even though WB may be happy with the SS numbers, they're already screwed overall when it comes to the profit they've made this year from total WB movies which the investors won't like.

I'm not sure if Tarzan, BvS, SS and Fantastic Beasts are suppose to be their tentpole pictures this year. If so, you only have 2 potentially profitable films.

Meanwhile next year you have Lego Batman, Kong, Wonder Woman, Justice League.

I know they have King Arthur and Blade Runner as well but if I had to gamble, I'd say the first 4 I listed for 2017 are their more "surer" bets.

SS was already in motion when they heard about the BvS reception. I think WB will have taken that (much worse than expected) BvS reaction from both critics and fans, hardcore and casual, to heart as it is the biggest warning and wake up call that the path to billions from their core films is not straightforward. The JL films are the ones with the highest potential numbers and those are the ones directly at risk after BvS.

Principal filming ended for WW a month and a half after the s' storm for BvS. I'm not sure how much course correction could be done or if Jenkins was able to get what she wanted. I heard rumors of reshoots in June.

But again WB, has had the knack for messing up on the editing process.

And I'm still overly cautious with JL because again filming began a month after BvS and while I'm not in the industry, scripts, sets, costumes, special effects should have been done in advance.

 

[Iceman]

If it drops under 65% that would be good.

Yeah, it isn't a terrible fall from a large opening especially given the reactions we've seen.

 

[kguillou]

i think if all goes well this weekend, we'll get announcements on SS' future next week.

 

[I Am The Knight]

Great numbers

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Happy? They'll be having ****ing orgasms if it drops 60% or less.

Yup. It'll be interesting to see how much impact Sausage Party has. SP got off to a $3.25 million start last night which is a very good number for a film like this.

 

[Iceman]

Principal filming ended for WW a month and a half after the s' storm for BvS. I'm not sure how much course correction could be done or if Jenkins was able to get what she wanted. I heard rumors of reshoots in June.

But again WB, has had the knack for messing up on the editing process.

And I'm still overly cautious with JL because again filming began a month after BvS and while I'm not in the industry, scripts, sets, costumes, special effects should have been done in advance.

I don't know if it matters that much on WW as the Snyder BvS style won't be a problem that necessarily would have massively affected every other DC project, all with different teams working on them. Yes WB's role in all this (managing, editing etc) could be a common issue and hopefully they have got the message that something needs to change regardless of what numbers any of their early phase films put up.

They really messed up on having such a cramped schedule with no room for flexibility and adjustments if things went wrong, after just one film that wasn't terribly recieved but didn't create Iron Man's momentum. They need to be flexible with the future dates so that they can see what is and what isn't working with audiences and cater towards that with future projects. I can't help but be optimistic on JL as it is such an important film to me and hopefully I'm not seriously disappointed next year.

 

[Iceman]

i think if all goes well this weekend, we'll get announcements on SS' future next week.

Yep, after this weekend they'll know pretty much how this film is going to do domestically. If it falls like the predictions that should be enough for them to be happy for a sequel to be made (hopefully one that can work on the weaknesses). It can be a great offshoot for the DCEU to have in its offering if they can get people on board who were disappointed with the first one.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

Embarrassingly low? Do you have the numbers to back up your claim? Probably not.

The original post that Kirk Langstrom was replying to claimed that DC was way behind Fox and Marvel when that isn't the case looking at the numbers.

MCU: 13 movies; $10.2 billion gross; 787 million average

DCEU: 3 movies; 1.8 billion gross; 606.9 million average

FOX: 9 movies; 4.37 billion gross; 485.6 million average


NOTE: The DCEU number includes Suicide Squad which is still in it's first week and at a current gross of 280 ww, which brought down the DC average considerably, however the Squad will take the DCEU over the 2 billion when all is said and done and the average will likely go up. Without the Squad included the average is 770 million (17 mil short of the Marvel average)

The FOX number only includes the X-Men franchise. The Fantastic Four, Daredevil and Elektra movies aren't counted but if they were the gross would go up (5.393 billion among 14 movies) while the average would go down (385.25 million).


So the claim that DC is so far behind Marvel and Fox isn't really valid. The claim that the DCEU isn't financially successful also isn't valid if it were then why would all these DC movies be planned after JL? The Flash starts filming in January for crying out loud...DCEU is here to stay for the foreseeable future

THANK you. That point seems to be going completely over some people's heads.

 

[obredaan]

THANK you. That point seems to be going completely over some people's heads.

Box office numbers are nice and all but the studios only really care about profits. WB has invested far more $$$ on its first 3 films compared to what Marvel spent on their first 3 films. So if we want to simply break things down to simple comparisons than start with profits. And if you want simple box office numbers than you have to include inflation among other factors.