Suicide Squad box office prediction - Part 1

[JKKS085]

This thread almost looks like a carbon copy of the BvS Bo thread at the same point.
People got worked up over inflated summer week days and put their hopes up too high (despite some posters vain efforts to put said numbers into perspective).

65%+ is a very poor drop, a bad sign going forward and additional proof that reviews and wom matter. That is another DCEU film that's unable to reach out to an audience that goes past its rabid fanbase and that's bad for WB.

 

[Matt]

Could you guys imagine what the box office would have been like if they more heavily promoted the real protagonists (Enchantress and Brochantress) instead of the Joker?

I think this is problematic though. First the embargo for BvS, now this (combined with another restrictive embargo). WB is being dishonest with the audience and attempting to be duplicitous. That is creating more backlash than there may otherwise be.

It's one thing like FF and GL to disappoint. It's another thing with characters like Batman and Superman or even Harley Quinn to fail. Unfortunately, there are just higher expectations.

Yep.

So how do we account for the respectable weekday holds? Clearly audiences were responding well in the first week. Are we to assume this drop is due mainly to the competition exceeding expectations as opposed to negative WOM for SS, or can it be reasonably inferred that the audience who was going to see this movie has already dried out and the WOM from them has not inspired others to see the film?

Also, is it too early to tell just how significant the drop is going to be (around 70% if I'm hearing this correctly), or is that set in stone?

Its really not all that impressive. A 16 % drop may sound good, but when you contextualize it as a drop from 9 million to 8 million, it suddenly does not sound as great. When dealing with lower numbers, the percentages are always going to be lower.

 

[brandeezy89]

The thing is, as was pointed out next week, they really can't afford to flinch at this point. Moving it is throwing in the towel. They've over-committed at this point. In an attempt to show strength when BvS disappointed, they stubbornly pushed forward rather than delaying and re-evaluating. That was basically Kevin Tsujihara saying "my plan will work." To back off now is essentially admitting defeat (which will get him fired). He now has to use it as his last stand. If it succeeds amidst an insane degree of competition (or even just doesn't embarrass the studio) he could be validated. If it fails, he's done. But moving it gets him fired also. Might as well roll the dice.

That said, Disney ought to be brutal and move Han Solo into an April release rather than late May. That would essentially box JL in to its November spot (as it has no where else to go) and effectively kill the DCEU.

Kevin is already out the door so he'll probably do whatever he wants if he gets the chance but why would Disney move a movie just to kill another studio's Franchise?

"Let's kill WBs DC movies by moving this movie here and box them in ha ha ha ha. They'll never see it coming"

 

[JKKS085]

Also, is it too early to tell just how significant the drop is going to be (around 70% if I'm hearing this correctly), or is that set in stone?

It's gonna drop around 67/68% based on Friday numbers. It's not set in stone but it's not gonna recover over the week end to a point where it's dropping less than 65% (which is the limit between a mediocre and a bad drop).

 

[Matt]

Kevin is already out the door so he'll probably do whatever he wants if he gets the chance but why would Disney move a movie just to kill another studio's Franchise?

"Let's kill WBs DC movies by moving this movie here and box them in ha ha ha ha. They'll never see it coming"

Business is competition. Although Warners has hit hard times, they are still Disney's business competition. Destroying their potential for a tentpole is a good business move for Disney. If Warners falters or sells, chances are Harry Potter's film rights go back to Rowling to sell off to the highest bidder. Guess would love to get their hands on those.

 

[Erzengel]

So Friday estimates has Sausage Party at $13.5 Million and Suicide Squad at $13.4 Million.

Gitesh Pandya states that SP will gross $31M over the weekend while SS will gross $45 Million.

 

[Silver Surfer]

With no China, South Korea becomes the seond biggest market, unfortunately for WB. the news there is worse:

-85%+ 2nd weekend drop in South Korea

from BOT

Movie is crashing.

 

[idiot09]

Deadline have updated their prediction to a $44.4M weekend which means a 66% drop.

 

[FunkMiller]

Deadline have updated their prediction to a $44.4M weekend which means a 66% drop.

A bit better. Curious to see what Mojo comes out with.

 

[Juan1193]

Well this thread certainly took and even bigger nosedive than Suicide Squad seems to have. So much doom and gloom reminds me of how toxic the BVS forum became. Dejavu xD

I hope Suicide Squad doesn't have a huge drop because I enjoyed the film. But it seems like it will so thats too bad

 

[combocaz]

Im not sure how this box office works but isnt making 400mil ww within 2 weekends a good thing and it does smell nasty in here lol.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah WB you just keep making the expensive movies that very few actually like. Great strategy!

 

[brandeezy89]

Reactionary is the perfect way to describe it. And it spreads across their talent, apparently. As I just posted in the Wonder Woman forum, Patty Jenkins's response to the open letter makes me think that the DCEU is in an even sorrier state than anyone realizes.

I don't know whether the open letter is real or not. I do know that whoever wrote it struck a major nerve with Jenkins. If it were fake, she would've ignored it, let WB's marketing team disavow it and be done with it. After all, anyone in PR will tell you, acknowledging a story gives it credibility. Instead, she felt the need to shoot off 6 or 7 tweets about it, saying how untrue it is, declaring it "misinformation," claiming how great of state the movie is in, etc. To me, that is a bad sign. After all, "the lady doth protest too much."

It was a reactionary response. She wouldn't reacting to a silly rumor that amounts to nothing. I think things are about to get much worse for the DCEU.

Or maybe she's pissed that someone is ****ting on her project that she seems to be very passionate about. Especially a movie that's 10 months out and currently in the editing room.

 

[Tra-El]

Well this thread certainly took and even bigger nosedive than Suicide Squad seems to have. So much doom and gloom reminds me of how toxic the BVS forum became. Dejavu xD

I hope Suicide Squad doesn't have a huge drop because I enjoyed the film. But it seems like it will so thats too bad

Regardless, it's been performing well and it's going to be deemed a success. Anything for the negative outlook on things in these forums. The vultures are always going to be out and are as predictable as it comes. The interest is strong enough to move forward. That's all that matters.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Only an unintelligent person believes that letter. I believe the DCEU is in trouble but that letter isn't real.

 

[LoganGambit87]

Or maybe she's pissed that someone is ****ting on her project that she seems to be very passionate about. Especially a movie that's 10 months out and currently in the editing room.

nah bro it must be true if she responded it must be because she knows the truth is about to come to light about Wonder Woman Matt knows best

 

[FunkMiller]

Regardless, it's been performing well and it's going to be deemed a success. Anything for the negative outlook on things in these forums. The vultures are always going to be out and are as predictable as it comes. The interest is strong enough to move forward. That's all that matters.

I think it's too early to say that. If it crashes bad, it won't reach anything like 600 million, and it needs to make at least that to be considered any kind of success - if not a lot more.

 

[Silver Surfer]

How is a near 70% second week drop "performing well"? in what universe would a drop that horrendous be considered a success? Not to mention the 85%+ international drops it's getting.

 

[JtheDreamer]

How is a near 70% second week drop "performing well"? in what universe would a drop that horrendous be considered a success? Not to mention the 85%+ international drops it's getting.

The "it's doing well" foxhole is the drunkest place on that planet. LOL

 

[Raiden]

Quite the drop.

Also, the GOTG analogies are not exactly on point. It all comes down to expectation and needs.

Warners NEEDED this to be well received. They needed a hit that wasn't completely front loaded and would not suffer a huge drop off in week 2 (presumably due to bad word of mouth). They needed it as some sort of indication that they were on the right track and that Justice League (which will make or break, not only the DCEU but the studio's entire 10 year plan and the careers of several of its executives' careers) would not suffer the same fate. Basically, they needed some indication that BvS was the anomaly rather than the norm. Yet here we are, having the exact same discussion that we had 6 months ago. Despite basing the marketing strategy entirely around the second most popular character at DC's disposal, history is repeating and SS is having the same type of nose dive BvS had. But because Warners acted so hastily with JL, it is too late to course correct. THAT is why this is a big deal. Not because the numbers are bad per se, but rather because they are bad when looked at in context of what these numbers reflect for the franchise (the DCEU) based on the totality of the circumstances.

Conversely, GOTG was a sci-fi movie about a talking tree and raccoon. There were no recognizable characters (ala Joker) and it still managed to have great legs. But even if it bombed, Marvel did not NEED it. They tried something different, took a risk, it paid off, but if it didn't, it would've been shrugged off. Warners does not have that luxury.

Plus, this movie seems to be on the exact same pattern as BvS. GOTG was successful because good word of mouth gave it legs. It was earning in the 8 figures for 7 weekends (which is unreal). BvS (which SS has been performing nearly identically to) earned 8 figures for all of 3 weekends.

Again, this is important because it is a reflection of how audiences are responding to these movies, which is a reflection of how audiences will receive Justice League. You can point to a CinemaScore all you want, but these websites are not scientific polls. They are tainted by fanboys who go and vote (both ways) over and over. The general audience isn't doing that. They are simply telling their friends and posting on their social media accounts "that movie was ****, don't see it" or "that movie was great, go see it!" The ones that receive the latter have GOTG-typle legs. The former wind up like BvS and that is how Suicide Squad is looking. And that is a bad sign for the DCEU/JL, which, again, is a movie Warners has bet their studio on.

Well said. SS has a lot going for it, with Harley (possibly the most popular female character in DC right now), and marketing heavily emphasizing on Joker, comparing it to GOTG where none of the Avengers made a cameo (unlike Batman in SS) is really unfair.

 

[Kathemy]

Batman v Superman:
Week 1: Friday ~81m, Week 2: Friday ~15m (-81.6%)

Suicide Squad:
Week 1: Friday ~65m, Week 2: Friday ~13m (-79.4%)

 

[The Joker]

http://deadline.com/2016/08/weekend-box-office-suicide-squad-sausage-party-petes-dragon-1201802677/

"3RD UPDATE, 9:45PM: The biggest threat facing Suicide Squad this weekend isn’t Batman or Superman, but raunchy Sausages, and yes, even Pete’s Dragon.

The Warner Bros/DC pic based off of early evening industry figures is headed toward a second weekend drop on par to Batman v. Superman‘s -69% with $41.9M over three days. After beating Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy for the highest opening in August, the tables may turn on Suicide Squad with the James Gunn-directed movie holding the best second weekend in August with $42.1M. If Suicide Squad doesn’t pick up, then it will tie with BvS and 20th Century Fox’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine for one of the worst sophomore fall-offs for a superhero movie. Earlier this week, it appeared that the under 35 bunch who gave this movie an A- were going to Suicide Squad its legs, but this is what happens when a superhero movie is universally panned by critics with a ho-hum CinemaScore of B+. In order to fly, as Marvel banks on every time with its movies, a studio needs to check all the boxes. But the other thing that’s going on here, particularly with critics, is that when it comes to a DC movie, they still have a crush on Christopher Nolan. He stacked the deck here in DC’s storytelling making it difficult for other filmmakers to rival or emulate. On the bright side, Suicide Squad will clear the $200M this weekend, on its way to $400M global."

Wonderful news

Quite the drop.

Also, the GOTG analogies are not exactly on point. It all comes down to expectation and needs.

Warners NEEDED this to be well received. They needed a hit that wasn't completely front loaded and would not suffer a huge drop off in week 2 (presumably due to bad word of mouth). They needed it as some sort of indication that they were on the right track and that Justice League (which will make or break, not only the DCEU but the studio's entire 10 year plan and the careers of several of its executives' careers) would not suffer the same fate. Basically, they needed some indication that BvS was the anomaly rather than the norm. Yet here we are, having the exact same discussion that we had 6 months ago. Despite basing the marketing strategy entirely around the second most popular character at DC's disposal, history is repeating and SS is having the same type of nose dive BvS had. But because Warners acted so hastily with JL, it is too late to course correct. THAT is why this is a big deal. Not because the numbers are bad per se, but rather because they are bad when looked at in context of what these numbers reflect for the franchise (the DCEU) based on the totality of the circumstances.

Conversely, GOTG was a sci-fi movie about a talking tree and raccoon. There were no recognizable characters (ala Joker) and it still managed to have great legs. But even if it bombed, Marvel did not NEED it. They tried something different, took a risk, it paid off, but if it didn't, it would've been shrugged off. Warners does not have that luxury.

Plus, this movie seems to be on the exact same pattern as BvS. GOTG was successful because good word of mouth gave it legs. It was earning in the 8 figures for 7 weekends (which is unreal). BvS (which SS has been performing nearly identically to) earned 8 figures for all of 3 weekends.

Again, this is important because it is a reflection of how audiences are responding to these movies, which is a reflection of how audiences will receive Justice League. You can point to a CinemaScore all you want, but these websites are not scientific polls. They are tainted by fanboys who go and vote (both ways) over and over. The general audience isn't doing that. They are simply telling their friends and posting on their social media accounts "that movie was ****, don't see it" or "that movie was great, go see it!" The ones that receive the latter have GOTG-typle legs. The former wind up like BvS and that is how Suicide Squad is looking. And that is a bad sign for the DCEU/JL, which, again, is a movie Warners has bet their studio on.

Well said

 

[Flint Marko]

Batman v Superman:
Week 1: Friday ~81m, Week 2: Friday ~15m (-81.6%)

Suicide Squad:
Week 1: Friday ~65m, Week 2: Friday ~13m (-79.4%)

Ouch.

 

[idiot09]

Just some perspective :

From Samuel Otten on twitter :

The % drop is based on huge opening Thu/Fri. SS's $13.35Mil is still more than #GotG made on 2nd Friday.

"All of that is to say that we should take a moment to appreciate at least the box office success of Suicide Squad, even if we have differing opinions on the quality of the movie. In the graph above, bear in mind that the blue line for GotG is the most successful August movie of all time...by a wide margin. Let that sink in, and then take a look at the pink Skwad line. You'll see that the Skwad has already posted $179.1 Million before the second weekend, and GotG only had $176.4 Million after its second weekend. But what if Suicide Squad nosedives like Batman v Superman did? Well...



Even if Skwad takes a 70% dive in its second weekend (which is possible simply because of the enormity of its opening weekend), that would still give it $40 Million(the projections are 44.4 mil so it would eclipse GOTG ) for this weekend and a new domestic total close to $220 Million. Notice that GotG was at $222.4 Million after its third weekend. This means it is very likely that Suicide Squad will be running a full week ahead of GotG -- and that's nothing against GotG, which was a huge hit.


Now, even though movies make most of their money in the first couple weeks, it is still possible that the long legs of GotG will eventually win out over Suicide Squad. We'll see. But the other thing to keep in mind is that the budgets were quite different on these two films. The Skwad clocked in at $175 Million (plus marketing expenses, which were probably around $125 Million), whereas GotG cost $232 Million to make (plus marketing). So that allows us to look at a new graph that maps out the ratio between the domestic gross and the production expenses.

From this perspective, the success of Suicide Squad is even clearer."

http://comicandscreen.blogspot.in/2016/08/box-office-success-suicide-squad-and.html

All credits go to Samuel Otten.

 

[Juan1193]

Well that's positive news. It means I get a sequel and that would make me very happy.