Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 1

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]350981[/split]

 

[:eek:]

Some early predictions (domestic grosses only) from Boxoffice.com for releases in May:

Thor: $208 million
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides: $300 million
Kung Fu Panda 2: $320 million
The Hangover Part II: $245 million

 

[Doctor Jones]

Que people saying it was a disappointing OW for FC. It seemed to meet expectations. People just had the wrong predictions and forgot the fact that we came off of two ****** films from before.

 

[rashad]

BOM Weekend estimates

1 N X-Men: First Class Fox $56,000,000 - 3,641 - $15,380 $56,000,000
2 1 The Hangover Part II WB $32,445,000 -62.2% 3,615 - $8,975 $186,872,000
3 2 Kung Fu Panda 2 P/DW $24,300,000 -49.0% 3,952 +27 $6,149 $100,440,000
4 3 Pirates of the Caribbean 4 BV $18,010,000 -54.8% 3,966 -198 $4,541 $190,257,000
5 4 Bridesmaids Uni. $12,128,000 -26.7% 2,919 -39 $4,155 $107,255,000
6 5 Thor Par. $4,200,000 -55.9% 2,780 -516 $1,511 $169,073,000
7 6 Fast Five Uni. $3,244,000 -49.4% 2,237 -744 $1,450 $202,058,000
8 7 Midnight in Paris SPC $2,916,000 +51.1% 147 +89 $19,837 $6,943,000
9 9 Jumping the Broom TriS $865,000 -52.6% 589 -350 $1,469 $35,927,000
10 8 Something Borrowed WB $835,000 -55.1% 688 -752 $1,214 $36,660,000
11 10 Rio Fox $750,000 -58.4% 691 -981 $1,085 $136,702,000
12 12 Water for Elephants Fox $700,000 -35.6% 572 -222 $1,224 $55,739,000
13 15 The Tree of Life FoxS $621,000 +66.5% 20 +16 $31,050 $1,253,000

http://boxofficemojo.com/lu.php?3jU

 

[JP]

Deadline says $54.

 

[rashad]

Deadline says $54.

BoxoffiiceMojo posts the official studio estimates.

 

[Electrix]

Twentieth Century Fox’s prequel X-Men: First Class opened to $56 million at the domestic box office to win the weekend race, and enough for the studio to proclaim that a new era has begun for its marquee superhero franchise.

Overseas, First Class grossed $64 million from 74 territories for a worldwide bow of $120 million. First Class lost the international race to Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides ($87.4 million), but didn’t have as big a footprint.

First Class and a cadre of strong holdovers helped fuel a bumper weekend at the domestic box office, with revenues up a welcome 30% over the same frame a year ago.

Domestically, Fox said Matthew Vaughn’s First Class—costing close to $140 million to produce--achieved its goal in matching the $54.5 million opening of the first X-Men.

More bullish box office observers had expected First Class to hit $60 million in its debut, but Fox always kept its projections in the $45 million to $55 million range.

“The movie really excelled in successfully launching a brand new chapter in the X-Men franchise, or new beginning if you will,” Fox senior vice president of domestic distribution Chris Aronson said.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-x-men-194974

 

[KangConquers]

120 Million isn't bad. Not great but not bad. Hopefully it'll have a good second weekend, as No X-film has had better than a 2.5 multiplier.

I'm expecting about 325 from First Class.

 

[Lord Blackbolt]

You also have to account that X-men doesn't have the 3d ticket prices for their numbers. It's one of the few big budget movies that doesn't have that inflated price...so it actually might be seen by more people than Thor even if it made less money than thor it's first weekend.

 

[JP]

It most certainly had higher attendance than Thor.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Is that proven?

Anyway, regardless of what happens, we're getting a sequel. Keep the hell away from an X4, I can't wait to see the sequel to this one.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

A sequel ain't guaranteed to First Class.

 

[KangConquers]

A sequel ain't guaranteed to First Class.

We'll be able to gauge that more by next week's performance than this week.

 

[rashad]

A sequel ain't guaranteed to First Class.

Let's not forget Fox has to always have an X-Men film in development since they own the rights in perpetuity. FC has gotten a great deal of positive feedback from critics and general audiences. Whether it be a sequel or any other follow-up. Another X-Men film is all but guaranteed.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Let's not forget Fox has to always have an X-Men film in development since they own the rights in perpetuity. FC has gotten a great deal of positive feedback from critics and general audiences. Whether it be a sequel or any other follow-up. Another X-Men film is all but guaranteed.

A Wolverine sequel is more ensured to happen off this weak opening.

 

[Electrix]

The Wolverine was happening anyway.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

The Wolverine was happening anyway.

True but First Class' opening will ensure opinions that Jackman has to be front and center to help sell it and get asses in seats.

 

[rashad]

X-Men: First Class’ Debuts to $56 Million Domestically
2:43 PM 6/5/2011 by Frank Segers

'Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides' narrowly beats out the 20th Century Fox film for the No. 1 spot internationally.

Pirates versus X-Men? Pirates win.

Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, the dominant international title for two prior successive rounds, narrowly took the No. 1 spot on the foreign theatrical circuit for a third consecutive weekend, grossing $69.4 million from more than 19,000 screens in more than 100 markets.

X-Men: First Class, the latest installment of the billion-dollar comic book film franchise from 20th Century Fox, finished No. 2 on the weekend, drawing $64 million in its opening round on the foreign theatrical circuit at some 8,877 locations in 74 overseas markets – for an per screen average of slightly more than $7,200.

Ranking a close No. 3 was Warner Bros.’ Hangover 2, which collected $62 million from 7,550 screens in 53 markets, of which 13 were new including Germany ($12.6 million including previews at 855 screens) and Russia ($5 million from 755 spots).

Cume for the sequel to 2009’s comedy original (which grossed a total of $191.6 million foreign) totals $151.5 million after nine days of offshore release, which Warners said was 78% of the entire foreign run of the original. Hangover Part 2 finished No. 2 domestically; worldwide gross stands at $338.4 milion.

Fourth on the weekend was DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 2 in 3D via Paramount, which grossed $40 million on the weekend overall from 9,104 locales in 28 markets, pushing the animation sequel’s still early foreign gross total to $125 million – nearly $25 million more than its domestic cume.

No. 5 was Fast Five, which boosted its overseas gross total to $366.5 million thanks to a $10 million weekend at 6,820 locations in 63 territories. A muscular Venezuela opening at 65 playdates generated $1 million for a 46% market share. An October opening is set for Japan, the final overseas market for the fifth installment of the Universal car action franchise.

Directed by Matthew Vaughn and costarring James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender and Jennifer Lawrence, X-Men: First Class, the fourth sequel of the five-title franchise, pulled No. 1 numbers in at least 20 territories. Biggest turnouts came from the U.K. ($9 million from 950 sites including previews), France ($7.7 million from 687 sites), Mexico ($5.3 million from 1,535 situations), South Korea ($5.2 million from 599 sites) and Australia ($5 million from 415 locations)

The mutant superhero saga has since its inception has picked up box office steam internationally relative to domestic action. While the first three titles in the franchise grossed more in the U.S. and Canada, the fourth, X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009), drew $195.9 million offshore versus $179.9 million domestically.

Original title in the series, X-Men (2000), grossed $139 million on the foreign circuit and $296.3 million worldwide. The first sequel, X-Men 2 (2003), bagged $193.2 million overseas and $408.2 million globally. Top grosser of the franchise is the third sequel, X-Men: The Last Stand (2006), which racked up $225.3 million in foreign box office and $459.7 worldwide.

In all, the first four X-men titles have collectively grossed $1.540 billion globally.
Fox said that in the same basket of foreign markets, First Class outdrew the original X-Men 196%, X-Men 2 by 127% and X-Men Origins: Wolverine by 105%. First Class opened No. 1 domestically, and is off to a worldwide gross of $120 million.

Meanwhile, the latest Pirates sequel pushed its international gross total past the $600-million mark ($600.4 million, more than three times its domestic cume). The Jerry Bruckheimer production starring Johnny Depp is currently the 16th biggest-grossing release ever on the foreign circuit. Its worldwide cume ($790.7 million) makes On Stranger Tides the 31st largest grosser ever released anywhere.

Not coincidentally, the distributors of X-Men and Pirates franchises are closely vying this year for the top spot among the six Hollywood major studios in terms of foreign box office. Both Disney and Fox have already surpassed the $1-billion overseas box office mark this year.

Fox is leading by a whisker so far with $1.109 billion amassed from January through May, down 43% from 2010 -- when Avatar was in initial overseas release during the first two months of the year.

The distributor said its 2011 showing (including a May tally of about $158 million, up 222% from May 2010) was driven by Rio (grossing a total of $323.7 million offshore through May), Black Swan ($211.4 million), Gulliver’s Travels ($158.3 million) and The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader ($114.7 million).

While Fox’s January-through-May tally doesn’t include box office results from the latest X-Men title, Disney said it crossed the $1-billion mark (for the company’s 17th consecutive year) largely on the back of On Stranger Tides.
Disney’s 2011 offshore take so far is $1.108 billion. In May, when the Pirates sequel had its record-setting opening on the foreign circuit -- grossing $488 million during the month -- Disney registered a total of $499.4 million, up 159% from the comparable May 2010 figure.

Meanwhile, Sony reports it has grossed $679.1 million through May, up more than 100% from 2010. May for Sony yielded $50.4 million in overseas box office, up 28% from May 2010. World Invasion: Battle Los Angeles (cume $118.9 million) and the Adam Sandler comedy Just Go With It ($111.7 million) were key drivers of Sony’s five-month action.

Universal is also having a solid year so far thanks largely to heavy Fast Five action. January-through-May foreign b.o. figure is $632.8 million, up seven percent from last year with the May-only figure ($311.5 million) increasing 66% from 2010. (Paramount and Warner Bros. have yet to report year-to-date figures.)

Fox’s animation outing Rio bagged $2.8 million on the weekend from 2,508 venues in 25 territories for a foreign cume of $326.5 million. Paramount’s Thor, director Kenneth Branagh’s screen treatment of the mythic comic book character, has generated total foreign box office of $258 million thanks to a $1.6 million weekend at 2,990 locations in 60 markets.

In France, Mars Distribution’s release of Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris dropped to the market’s No. 5 spot, grossing an estimated $1.2 million from 450 screens, a dip of 13% from the prior weekend. Market cume stands at 10.2 million.

Also in France, Tree of Life, Terrence Malick’s Cannes Festival prizewinner, dropped to No. 7 with an estimated $1 million drawn from 350 sites. The EuropaCorp Distribution release has registered a market total of $4.4 million thus far. Top local language newcomer in France was Pathe’s No. 4-ranked Monsieur Papa, a comedy-drama directed by and costarring Kad Merad, which opened at 350 sites for an estimated $1.4 million.

Other international cumes: Fox’s Black Swan, $$214.1 million; Sony and other distributors' Hanna, $13.6 million; Fox’s Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son, $46 million; Universal’s Paul, $53.8 million; Fox’s Water For Elephants, $53.6 million; UGC Distribution’s The Rabbi’s Cat, $1.1 million in France opener at 225 locations; Sony’s Priest, $42.2 million; Universal’s The Adjustment Bureau, $58.4 million; Gaumont’s La conquete (The Conquest), $4.6 million in France only; and Universal’s Senna, $3.5 million from three markets including a U.K. and Ireland debut for the racing car driver docu generating $500,000 from 67 screens).

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/x-men-first-class-draws-194977

 

[Doctor Jones]

A sequel ain't guaranteed to First Class.

Let's not forget Fox has to always have an X-Men film in development since they own the rights in perpetuity. FC has gotten a great deal of positive feedback from critics and general audiences. Whether it be a sequel or any other follow-up. Another X-Men film is all but guaranteed.

True but First Class' opening will ensure opinions that Jackman has to be front and center to help sell it and get asses in seats.

I think we'll get an FC sequel and that Wolverine sequel. Origins underperformed and was **** yet it's getting a sequel.

Fox might want to have both franchises at the same time. And didn't the studio predict this kind of opening?

 

[Bruce Malone]

I don't get the studio spin saying they were trying to match the opening of the original x-men. I read that the 54 million it debuted with in 2000 is closer to 80 million today so First Class has not had anywhere near the debut the 1st x-men had.

 

[Marvin]

if it had been in 3D that could have probably meant 10mill higher and ta da.

 

[chaseter]

True but First Class' opening will ensure opinions that Jackman has to be front and center to help sell it and get asses in seats.

Jackman's solo film only grossed 179 domestic. That is sad. If he was the super star of the franchise and had the largest pull then it would have grossed more. It couldn't match X3's opening weekend and it tied with X2's opening weekend but if you take into account ticket inflation it still lost. All three of those had Jackman as the star. The movie sucking hurt it but it only mustered 85 million opening weekend and it had one of the hugest second weekend drops at 69%.

While Wolverine does have some pull, I think it's obvious that he isn't as huge as a lot of people make him out to be. We will see where this film ends up but First Class had two bad films preceding it and I think that hurt this movie more than Hugh Jackman not being the star did.

Plus...the studios and almost every box office estimations had this around 60 opening weekend. So is 56 a huge disappointing flop? No. This will get a sequel because it will still have made a good profit and I am sure the great critical and fan responses will solidify that.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

First Class is not guaranteed to get a sequel at this juncture. We heard the same reactions from fandom to Superman Returns, The Incredible Hulk, Kick-Ass, etc. after their openings.

Let's talk again in a couple of weeks/months and reaccess the situation. See where everything stands. Until then, no amount of "Yeah, this is getting a sequel!" remarks will make it so. Why some are refusing to understand this is beyond me other than the knee-jerk fanboy spin/defense.

 

[chaseter]

Fox has to keep making X-Men movies to keep the X-Men. They will make The Wolverine. Then what? X4? Then what?

First Class will make a profit and after dvd sales a pretty good profit. It would be stupid to have built the concrete foundation for a new house and then not build anything because the movie (house in my analogy) came in 4 million under the studio and most official estimates. That is asinine. Fox was always planning for another set of films. Why do you think Vaughn and Singer left so many things open between First Class and X1? Why do you think Fox let Vaughn do a sort of pseudo reboot? Because they are expecting more films.

If this thing makes way less than its budget domestic, which it won't, and has extremely pathetic worldwide numbers, which it won't, then we won't get a sequel. It's not fanboyish to say this will get a sequel. It's common sense. Why? Because it will make a good profit and lay the groundwork for higher profits. I guess you could say the Pirates franchise is done with because it has had sad domestic numbers. It won't even make back's it's budget domestic. That is one of the signs of a failure. That must mean that Keira and Orlando were the only reason people went to see those movies!!! See how dumb that sounds?

 

[Spider-Fan]

Fox has to keep making X-Men movies to keep the X-Men. They will make The Wolverine. Then what? X4? Then what?

First Class will make a profit and after dvd sales a pretty good profit. It would be stupid to have built the concrete foundation for a new house and then not build anything because the movie came in 4 million under the studio's estimate. That is asinine.

If this thing makes less than its budget domestic, which it won't, we won't get a sequel. It's not fanboyish to say this will get a sequel. It's common sense. Why? Because it will make a good profit and lay the groundwork for higher profits. I guess you could say the Pirates franchise is done with because it has had sad domestic numbers. It won't even make back's it's budget domestic. That is one of the signs of a failure. That must mean that Keira and Orlando were the only reason people went to see those movies!!! See how dumb that sounds?

I am not sure if FC will end up with a sequel at this stage, nor am I really convinced we need one. This film I think stands alone very well. I say FOX should learn from this and make a quality X4.