Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 3

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]358419[/split]

 

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]355657[/split]

 

[DACrowe]

X-Men is a bigger name than Captain America since at least the '90s (probably since the '60s though, really). It's just this was the fifth X-film after two mediocre entries. Compare Cap's numbers to the inflation-adjusted non-3D numbers of the first two X-Men movies.

I'm kind of surprised Cap isn't going to surpass Thor though. Thor's going to win the race with....with literally just barely $180 million domestic. Not the best sign for the genre.

 

[Hush]

More like not the best sign for Lower-Tier characters looking to make a splash.

 

[Drizzle]

Yeah, there's nothing wrong with the genre.
Thor: The character was never that popular among the general public, so $180 domestic isn't too shabby.
X-Men First Class: Did decently, but it was brought down by franchise fatigue.
Green Lantern: It was killed by bad word of mouth, which it deserved.
Captain America: Seems to be doing okay. Would have done better if it hadn't been released a week after Harry Potter, and it probably would have done better if it had been released in early May around the time Bin Laden was killed and there was that brief surge of extreme patriotism.

Regardless of the state of the genre now, one thing is for certain: Next year, superhero movies will dominate the box office. The Avengers, The Amazing Spider-Man, The Dark Knight Rises, Man of Steel, possibly Wolverine....practically every bankable superhero has a film coming out next year.

 

[Liam_H]

^Man of Steel has already been moved to June of 2013.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Plus I should mention Thor is the highest grossing non-sequel movie so far and it did well internationally. I chalk it up more to people going to the movies less.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

^Man of Steel has already been moved to June of 2013.

And that's most likely where The Wolverine lands too. Memorial Day weekend would be my guess.

 

[Liam_H]

While we are on this train of thought I feel like adding that I think MOS should have been moved to mid-July of 2013 instead because WB has been golden on that release date from 2007-2011. All those movies have grossed over $800 million WW, Inception being the low man but still very impressive for not being part of a franchise. TDKR is certain to make it 6 years in a row.

They could've kept it rolling with MOS in the same time slot. Its unlikely to make $1 billion WW but it has the potential for big money. But instead they're trying to reinvigorate the mid-June time slot like they tried with Batman Begins.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

WB probably would have. Big problem though. Thor 2 already laid claim of the mid-late July slot and since both superheroes are similar enough in design and powers, it would hurt both The Man of Steel and Thor 2 to open so close together.

Hence why the futuristic monsters-vs.-robots flick Pacific Rim is WB's mid-late July release instead.

 

[Liam_H]

Good point but I've been hoping all along Marvel would push back Thor 2 and spread out their movies more but that's just me. Pacific Rim might be a gamble but with Del Toro I'm sure he can provide the spectacle. People will flock to it like they did Transformers.

 

[TheIncredibleSk]

Plus that June is Superman's 75 anniversary, so it just makes sense to put it in that June.

 

[Liam_H]

That is true but I'd be surprise if WB used that as a marketing ploy very much. 100 years I could see but saying 75th anniversary would sound like something for a Blu-Ray release.

 

[Drizzle]

^Man of Steel has already been moved to June of 2013.

I had no idea. Where have I been the past couple weeks?

 

[ALP]

I hate that. I was really looking forward to a winter release for Superman.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

I hate that. I was really looking forward to a winter release for Superman.

Yeah, that's what made it unique. Throwing it into the summer and it's just another big superhero movie.

 

[Donut]

I guess the WB figures what worked for Batman can work for Superman

*******s

 

[amazingfantasy15]

While we are on this train of thought I feel like adding that I think MOS should have been moved to mid-July of 2013 instead because WB has been golden on that release date from 2007-2011. All those movies have grossed over $800 million WW, Inception being the low man but still very impressive for not being part of a franchise. TDKR is certain to make it 6 years in a row.

They could've kept it rolling with MOS in the same time slot. Its unlikely to make $1 billion WW but it has the potential for big money. But instead they're trying to reinvigorate the mid-June time slot like they tried with Batman Begins.

I really think it has much more to do with the movie, not the date, Harry Potter was a proven juggarnaut at the box office. The Dark Knight was highly anticipated and with that success the next Christopher Nolan movie was as well.

 

[DACrowe]

I am not afraid to eat crow, so....

I posted this as my "final" prediction for non-animated releases between May and July back on April 5, 2011. Let's see how we did...

My Final Domestic Predictions (Give or take $10 Million):

*note I am not including animated films, as I am terrible at estimating those*

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II: $415 Million (final installment, 3D and IMAX will make a perfect storm of money making) ACTUAL: $343 million and rising. Will cross $380 million, but I doubt it will make it to $400 million much less $415 or even $405

2. Transformers 3: $335 Million ACTUAL: $344 million and climbing. I was right in that it would be well below TF2 and above TF1--ala POTC3--but I still underestimated people's love for recycled excrement
3. Pirates of the Caribbean 4: $300 Million ACTUAL: $239 million
4. Cowboys & Aliens: $220 Million ACTUAL: $67 million, will struggle to $100 million...whoops
5. Thor: $210 Million ACTUAL: $180 million
6. Super 8: $205 Million ACTUAL: $125 million, I overestimated people's love for quality and uniqueness
7. The Hangover Part II: $190 Million (Huge opening, but no legs after overhype leads to disappointment) ACTUAL: $253 million, called the drop/blacklash though
8. Captain America: $185 Million ACTUAL: $143 and growing, should finish out around $175-$180. I got one!
9. Green Lantern: $160 Million ACTUAL: $114 million...
10. X-Men: First Class: $135 Million ACTUAL: $145 million, close enough

Now, I bet I'm way off, as usual. Yes, yes I was.

Of course, I completely missed Bridesmaids's $166 million (and so did everybody else) and Horrible Boss's journey to $115-$120 million, which could easily surpass Green Lantern as well.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

I can honestly say I called Bridesmaids exploding (Predicted $150 million on Movie Moan) and Pirates 4 and X-Men under-performing. On the other hand, Cowboys & Aliens flopped and no way is Cap getting anywhere near $200 million.

 

[MadVillainy]

How did Pirates 4 under perform? Didnt it make over a billion WW and I think it's the second biggest installment in the franchise

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

It did in the US. Big time.

Disney is flat out ignoring it under-performing in the states because it hit $1 billion strictly because of the foreign markets.

 

[MadVillainy]

Ok I didnt know you meant domestic

But still does it really matter that much if it made its money in the US or internationally? Do studios get more money from domestic gross than WW?

 

[jmc]

It's all money, doesn't matter where it comes from.

 

[Fanticon]

Plus I should mention Thor is the highest grossing non-sequel movie so far and it did well internationally. I chalk it up more to people going to the movies less.

t: that just looks funny after the praise of the sentence before it.