Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 3

[Tron Bonne]

Ok I didnt know you meant domestic

But still does it really matter that much if it made its money in the US or internationally? Do studios get more money from domestic gross than WW?

I'm not sure, but I think it's a given that anyone who puts out a product generally will get more from domestic than international sales, because then you have to deal in imports and international fees and such that you obviously don't have to with domestic gross.

Though, for a company like Disney that is an international company and has some kind of representation everywhere, it's probably harder to say that for sure. And regardless of that, if the difference between the two is big enough that the potential loss from domestic to international doesn't matter, it's probably not a huge issue at that point at all.

 

[DACrowe]

How did Pirates 4 under perform? Didnt it make over a billion WW and I think it's the second biggest installment in the franchise

I'm pretty sure it did the worse domestically of the four films....

EDIT:

POTC1: $305 million US
POTC2: $423 million US
POTC3: $309 million US

So, $1 billion WW means it was a big win for Disney, but the domestic numbers were underwhelming for this franchise. Especially when the advantages of inflation, 3D and IMAX are factored in, in my opinion.

 

[Liam_H]

^Even considering all that $1 billion is still huge despite how inflated those numbers are. Disney is gladly moving forward with two more sequels. As long as they have Depp the international crowd will eat it up no matter how much it keeps dropping in the US.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

t: that just looks funny after the praise of the sentence before it.

Well I'm talking domestically. Internationally movies doing as good or better than ever. Thor made more money internationally than Iron Man, and even without 3D and inflation I don't feel Thor would be that too far off (my guess is $15 million off considering that tickets worldwide have always been more expensive. )

The main problem with the movies now are domestically more than internationally.

 

[terry78]

As good as Apes was, even it won't be able to stand up to the almost monolithic might that is the Final Destination series this weekend.

 

[akfj]

That series keeps cheating death.

 

[dark_b]

curse you Franco and your paycheck. guess who is buying weed this week?

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

#Potter8 just surpassed #Transformers3 as 2011's #1 pic at US BO: $344.9M vs $344.7M.

http://***********/#!/giteshpandya/status/101008081978261505

 

[danoyse]

#Potter8 just surpassed #Transformers3 as 2011's #1 pic at US BO: $344.9M vs $344.7M.

http://***********/#!/giteshpandya/status/101008081978261505

Amen.

 

[rashad]

Monday numbers
http://boxofficemojo.com/lu.php?3q3

1 Rise of the Planet of the Apes $6,652,998 -58% 3,648 -- $1,824 $61,459,189 1 Fox

2 The Smurfs $2,889,166 -57% 3,395 0 $851 $78,793,412 2 Sony / Columbia

3 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II $1,804,337 -57% 3,175 -970 $568 $344,890,382 4 Warner Bros.

4 Cowboys & Aliens $1,745,610 -63% 3,754 4 $465 $69,095,130 2 Universal

5 Captain America: The First Avenger $1,672,605 -59% 3,620 -95 $462 $144,876,572 3 Paramount

6 Crazy, Stupid, Love $1,667,156 -53% 3,020 0 $552 $43,769,408 2 Warner Bros.

7 The Change-Up $1,631,280 -57% 2,913 -- $560 $15,162,395 1 Universal

8 Friends With Benefits $717,504 -49% 2,398 -528 $299 $49,243,791 3 Sony / Screen Gems

9 Horrible Bosses $638,407 -53% 2,025 -485 $315 $105,763,822 5 Warner Bros. / New Line

10 Transformers: Dark of the Moon $422,227 -57% 1,854 -750 $228 $344,666,713 6 Paramount / DreamWorks


Cowboys & Aliens dropping fast. lol

 

[rogue trooper]

Predictions for this weekend: http://topyxyz.wordpress.com/2011/0...19-21-2011-conan-vs-fright-night-vs-spy-kids/

1.) The Help – $18.0M – So, which among the three new movies will take the crown on the week where studios usually dump their “excess” releases? My answer is…well, none. The Help surprised us last week with a wonderful $25M opening, a very good premiere since it opened on a Wednesday. Frontloading isn’t a factor anymore. In fact, it’s exactly the opposite. This week I feel like people will be more interested with this film than the new ones, so I’m giving it a miniscule 25% drop, giving it a $100K edge over the number two movie which is…


2.) FRIGHT NIGHT – $17.9M – This remake of the 1985 original will defeat all other new releases this week. My reason is because it’s the least risky among the four. I mean, there have been plenty of Conans which bombed in the past few years, and the last Spy Kids movie dated back to 2005, which means people who enjoyed the franchise might be too old already. And of course, people’s tastes change every now and then. The only reason why Fright Night will not take the top spot is because Final Destination 5, which was also released in 3D last week, has the same target demographic.


3.) CONAN THE BARBARIAN – $17.8M – It looked awful a few months ago, but it may have picked up steam in the past few weeks as the publicity and marketing went to full throttle. Honestly, I was supposed to give this one a $12.5M prediction, so this estimate is based on the average bet of most people. Yep, I ain’t gonna be taking a risk, especially during a week where I could do an 0 for 7 with my predictions.


4.) SPY KIDS 4: ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD – $16.5M – Ladies and Gentlemen, introducing Spy Kids 4….in 4D!!! LOL! The extra dimension is actually something called “Aromascope”, where the audience will be given a special card when they watch the film. Instructions will be flashed in the screen telling you to scratch a corresponding part in the card, which will give off a scent similar to what the people in the movie will be smelling during that certain time. Now I don’t know if this gimmick will benefit them, but when I was a kid, I totally enjoyed watching Spy Kids 3D wearing those red-blue 3D glasses. That won’t be enough to put them at #1 though, even with Jessica Alba‘s help.


5.) Rise of The Planet of The Apes – $15.3M – It could still make $175M if people flock it for at least two more weeks. It has already cracked the $100M mark, and we now have about 20 movies making the same feat. Way to go 2011! Now if only you have an Avatar scheduled this December.…


6.) The Smurfs – $8.9M – And the number of movies expected to earn $10M this week ends at 5! But Sony doesn’t care about that anymore. Heck, The Smurfs even beat Sony’s new release last week, 30 Minutes or Less, which has already been booted out of the top 7.

7.) Final Destination 5 – $8.7M – I hear this one has the best deaths, but the worst acting. No wonder it’s the least attended among the five. Remember that it’s also in 3D! Tsk x3. I guess this is the end for the franchise!​

 

[Dr. Evil]

The Help got released a bit too early and it'll be lucky to get two Oscar nominations.

Even if Rise of the POTA slips to number 5, it's already considered a major box office success

 

[rashad]

Weekend Estimates (Aug 19-21)
http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

1 2 The Help BV $20,479,000 -21.4% 2,690 +156 $7,613 $71,801,000
2 1 Rise of the Planet of the Apes Fox $16,300,000 -41.4% 3,471 -220 $4,696 $133,764,000
3 N Spy Kids: All the Time in the World W/Dim. $12,020,000 - 3,295 - $3,648 $12,020,000
4 N Conan the Barbarian (2011) LGF $10,000,000 - 3,015 - $3,317 $10,000,000
5 4 The Smurfs Sony $8,000,000 -41.7% 3,057 -370 $2,617 $117,745,000
6 N Fright Night (2011) BV $7,900,000 - 3,114 - $2,537 $8,300,000
7 3 Final Destination 5 WB (NL) $7,705,000 -57.3% 3,155 - $2,442 $32,328,000
8 5 30 Minutes or Less Sony $6,300,000 -52.7% 2,888 - $2,181 $25,762,000
9 N One Day Focus $5,128,000 - 1,719 - $2,983 $5,128,000
10 9 Crazy, Stupid, Love. WB $4,950,000 -29.8% 1,940 -695 $2,552 $64,420,000
11 7 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB $4,405,000 -39.3% 1,738 -676 $2,535 $365,901,000
12 6 Cowboys & Aliens Uni. $4,194,000 -46.3% 2,213 -1,097 $1,895 $89,476,000
13 8 Captain America: The First Avenger Par. $4,100,000 -43.1% 1,988 -847 $2,062 $164,732,000
14 10 The Change-Up Uni. $2,874,000 -54.4% 1,633 -1,280 $1,760 $32,019,000
15 11 Glee The 3D Concert Movie Fox $1,825,000 -69.4% 1,982 -58 $921 $10,464,000
16 12 Horrible Bosses WB (NL) $1,320,000 -45.9% 755 -583 $1,748 $112,616,000

The Help is performing great! Beat 4 new films opening over the weekend. lol

 

[terry78]

I know it couldn't have cost that much to make.

 

[Donut]

Spy Kids probably would have done better had it kept the original two characters as the main ones

 

[rashad]

Foreign Box Office: 'The Smurfs' Beat the Heat and Emerge No. 1
5:14 PM 8/21/2011 by Frank Segers

Weather is hotter than the box office in Europe this weekend as 'Apes' and 'Harry Potter' take No. 2 and No. 3 spots.

Bucking torrid temperatures across Europe, which depressed overall weekend box office on the foreign theatrical circuit, The Smurfs captured the No. 1 spot overseas with a gross of $35.3 million – down 34% from the prior stanza – at 10,590 screens in 54 markets.

The family-oriented 3D outing from Sony animation about those lovable blue creatures finished in the top spots in at least nine territories including Poland ($1.45 million drawn in its debut round at 129 venues), Colombia, Israel, Chile, Portugal, Austria and in Brazil ($3.9 million in the third round from 507 locations for a market cume of $22.2 million).

The Smurfs, which topped the foreign circuit for the second consecutive weekend, has accumulated total offshore gross of $211.4 million since it opened overseas on July 27. Worldwide, the tally is $329 million.

The weekend’s No. 2 was, again, 20th Century Fox’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes, which collected $29.6 million from 6,271 venues in 48 markets. A No. 2 bow in South Korea generated $7 million from 525 situations. The seventh installment of the 47-year-old feature film series has amassed a total of $123.7 million so far overseas.

Landing at No. 3 once again was Warner Bros.’ Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2, which generated $14.3 million on the weekend from 60 territories. Foreign cume for the eighth title in the lucrative franchise stands at $900 million, with $110.6 million coming from the U.K., making HP8 the market’s fourth biggest box office hit ever.

Debuts in six markets including a No. 2 bow in France ($3.5 million from 480 locations) lifted the overall weekend tally for Marvel Studios’ Captain American: The First Avenger to $12 million from 4,718 venues in 51 territories, and elevated the 3D superhero comic book adaptation’s overseas cume to $147 million. A No. 1 Germany introduction for the Paramount release provided $2.2 million from 460 sites. It ranked No. 4 on the weekend.

Fifth was Warner’s Green Lantern, which is picking up some steam overseas. The weekend generated $11.4 million from about 4,200 venues in 35 territories. A Brazil opener provided $3.3 million from 352 sites. Foreign cume: $78.6 million. Pixar’s Cars 2 from Disney drew $10 million on its ninth round on the foreign circuit, lifting its overseas cume to $314.4 million. Global take is $501.3 million.

Since its offshore opening on June 9,Super 8, director J.J. Abrams’ sci/fi-adventure co-produced by Steven Spielberg, has finally crossed the $100-million mark in foreign box office ($108.2 million). The weekend came up with $9 million from 3,271 screens in 55 territories. A No. 1 debut in Spain provided $4.1 million from 386 sites.

Dominating a generally soft U.K. market was The Inbetweeners, a comedy costarring Simon Bird, James Buckley and Blake Harrison about four South England 18-year-olds on a Crete holiday. The Entertainment Film Distributors ‘ release opened No. 1 with an estimated $9 million drawn from some 455 locations.

Paramount’s Cowboys & Aliens, the 3D sci/fi-western hybrid costarring Daniel Craig and Harrison Ford, maintained its low box office profile overseas with a $8.1 million weekend at 2,376 locations in 22 territories. Accumulated foreign gross since Aug. 9 came to $18 million. A No. 4 U.K. premier generated $3 million from 476 venues while an Australia debut provided $2.2 million from 229 sites.

Coming in at $6.7 million on the weekend at 2,300 screens in 46 markets was Warner’s comedy-drama Horrible Bosses. The film opened No. 1 in Italy while a No. 3 France bow provided $1.7 million from 258 locations. Foreign cume stands at $45 million.

Paramount’s Transformers: Dark of the Moon, the action extravaganza from director Michael Bay upped its offshore box office total to $747 million – the distributor’s best grossing foreign hit ever – thanks to a $6.1 million weekend at 5,882 situations in 62 markets. Japan market cume so far is $44.4 million while total China box office stands at a sensational $159.1 million.

Although DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 2 has been playing the foreign circuit since May 26, the 3D animation sequel keeps on chugging at the box office. A No. 4 Japan debut generated $3.2 million from 305 venues. Weekend overall came up with $5.5 million from 1,522 situations in 61 territories for an international cume of $459 million.

Weekend foreign action for a pair of female-oriented comedies -- Universal’s Bridesmaids costarring Kristen Wiig and Sony’s Bad Teacher starring Cameron Diaz – appears to be tied at $3.4 million each. Bridesmaids played at 2,150 sites in 40 territories for an overseas gross total of $104.8 million. Bad Teacher was booked at some 1,400 locations in 37 markets for an offshore cume of $98.8 million.

Opening No. 1 in Australia was Sony’s Friends With Benefits, a romantic comedy costarring Mila Kunis and Justin Timberlake, which grossed $3 million in the market at 245 locations. Overall weekend take came to $3.3 million derived from 480 screens in 10 territories. Early foreign total gross stands at $13.4 million.

Zookeeper, the talking animals comedy from Sony starring Kevin James, had a soft France debut, coming in at No. 15 in the market with $450,000 derived from 252 screens. Weekend overall drew $2.8 million from 1,850 screens in 40 territories for an overseas cume of $62.2 million.

In France, four of the market’s top five titles were American films with the exception of Pathe’s release of The Skin I Live In from Spanish director Pedro Almodovar, which grabbed the No. 5 spot with an estimated tally of $101,000 from some 235 screens.

Other international cumes: Warner’s Crazy Stupid Love, $5.1 million (after a $4.2 million weekend at 1,150 screens in 12 markets); Fox’s X-Men: First Class, $206.8 million; Universal’s Hop, $76.5 million; Fox’s Mr. Popper’s Penguins, $97 million; Universal’s Senna, $7.6 million from seven markets; Fox’s Monte Carlo, $8.1 million; Universal’s Fast Five, $396.8 million; and Fox’s Glee: The 3D Concert Movie, $2.9 million.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/foreign-box-office-smurfs-beat-225737

 

[Hurm...]

Do we even have a thread for "The Help"? I loved the film.