Summer 2011 box office predictions - Part 2

[DACrowe]

Yea, a Deadpool movie would probably be made for like, 60 million. Reynolds said in an interview last month that it was gonna be "cheap and nasty". Which sounds about right. You don't wanna go spending 100 million dollars on a rated R Deadpool movie, otherwise yea, you'd end up with another Watchmen.

And the thing with a Deadpool film is, it's kinda like making fun of cheesy superhero movies like Green Lantern. All the romance cliches, the origin story formula etc is basically crapped on and burnt, going by the script that leaked a while back. It's just something totally different. If it's marketed as more of an action comedy rather than another superhero movie, I think there is an audience for that kind of movie. It could be the perfect tonic for the people who are getting sick and tired of these safe, cliche superhero flicks. It just depends on if Fox have the balls to make a movie like that without neutering it. Which remains to be seen.

If Reynolds doesn't do it I'd go for someone like Woody Harrellson. Reading the script it sorta reminded me of Tallahasee from Zombieland. A crazy, funny guy who deep down is sorta tortured and tragic.

The problem is that movie was already done very well, IMO, and it was called Kick-Ass. Hollywood has no problem doing similar ideas if they're very successful, but like the aforementioned Watchmen, it underperformed. KA cost only $28 million and tapped around a little over $45 million domestic, if I recall. That's far less than Hollywood expected which was more along the lines of the $75 million grossing Zombieland.

KA could have had a sequel if Vaughn wanted to (which he should have done ), but only because it sold like crack on DVD and Bluray. I'm not sure Fox will want to try the dark, violent superhero-comedy starring a guy who couldn't open a traditional superhero tentpole the same year their other non-Wolverine X-film underperformed.

I don't expect to see DP anytime soon.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

I doubt Deadpool would connect with the general audience well either. He'd work best as a supporting character.

 

[The Morningstar]

Kick Ass was good. But wasn't really a satire. It was for about the first 2 thirds, then just became a superhero flick of it's own. And it's marketing campaign was pretty poor. It made it look like a bright and colourful kids movie... but with people getting shot up and cut to ribbons with swords. Not to mention it featured a little girl cussing and killing people.

Again, i think a Deadpool movie has an audience. Not a massive one, but with a modest budget like they say what they are doing, it could be successful.

 

[CelticPredator]

Yes, I realize that. I read box office results too.

But it's still a good movie. Vastly better than the last god-awful Transformers movie, which keeps making money for some reason.

Transformers was FAR...FAAAAR more entertaining. And more emotionally engaging. I didnt give a **** about anyone in Cowboys and Aliens. Especially that Last Airbrat. Meh to him. Meh to that whole movie.

Atleast Transformers gave me **** I've never seen on screen. What did Cowboys give me that was new? I guess Daniel Craig as a cowboy was new....ish.

 

[CelticPredator]

I doubt Deadpool would connect with the general audience well either. He'd work best as a supporting character.

Who would he be supporting? The X-Men? That's pretty much it...I know he pops up a lot, but i've only read the entire Deadpool series.

Unless they do Cable and Deadpool. Which would be pretty cool.

 

[CelticPredator]

Kick Ass was good. But wasn't really a satire. It was for about the first 2 thirds, then just became a superhero flick of it's own. And it's marketing campaign was pretty poor. It made it look like a bright and colourful kids movie... but with people getting shot up and cut to ribbons with swords. Not to mention it featured a little girl cussing and killing people.

Again, i think a Deadpool movie has an audience. Not a massive one, but with a modest budget like they say what they are doing, it could be successful.

3 posts...you'll get over it.

But yes...Kick-Ass is a good way of seeing HOW a Deadpool movie could work...but Kick-Ass is not a Deadpool movie.

Also, seeing as how Deadpool was once on EVERY SINGLE MARVEL COMIC cover for a bit...I think he does indeed have an audience.

 

[Liam_H]

Transformers was FAR...FAAAAR more entertaining. And more emotionally engaging. I didnt give a **** about anyone in Cowboys and Aliens. Especially that Last Airbrat. Meh to him. Meh to that whole movie.

To each is own. Transformers was not FAR more entertaining. Emotionally engaging, not really.

 

[CelticPredator]

Bumblebee almost dying got me far more then anything in Cowboys.

Sam saying goodbye got me more then anything in Cowboys.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Transformers was FAR...FAAAAR more entertaining. And more emotionally engaging. I didnt give a **** about anyone in Cowboys and Aliens. Especially that Last Airbrat. Meh to him. Meh to that whole movie.

Atleast Transformers gave me **** I've never seen on screen. What did Cowboys give me that was new? I guess Daniel Craig as a cowboy was new....ish.

Calm down CP.

CHILLLL /Freeze

 

[CelticPredator]

Nevah. Not until people take Transformers for what it is.

It's like eating a McDouble and getting pissed it's not the best thing ever...

 

[Liam_H]

Bumblebee almost dying got me far more then anything in Cowboys.

Sam saying goodbye got me more then anything in Cowboys.

Anything that was suppose to be emotionally resonating in Transformers 3 fell completely flat for me because of everything else that came before it. Majority of the scenes before that was spent on irrelevant stuff. I just didn't buy it so when it was happening I was like...okay.

Also on the subject of Bumblebee almost getting executed, the entire time I was thinking how the hell did they capture the Autobots when literally 4 minutes ago he saved Sam. I understand its not in real time but when something that big happens you have to show it not just have it come out of nowhere. So I was just annoyed.

 

[CelticPredator]

Well yeah...see, since I know this entire movie is dumb, I dont really need to worry about things that are...well, dumb. That way I can embrace the dumbness, and watch the pretty colors.

Cowboys and Aliens never looked dumb. Jon doesnt make dumb films. Iron Man is exellent. And I like 2 to a degree.

So I can't shut my brain off for that, because I expected something a little more well made the Transformers. But what I got was something like Transformers in how bland everything is... but insted of the pretty effects, I got ehh effects, and nothing really cool or stylized.

 

[Liam_H]

^Well then its differing expectations. I believe you can have a Transformers movie, actually be a good movie. Instead of just a cluster of scenes that might be cool when seen separately.

Also after TF2 I went into DOTM with lowered expectations hoping for at least good action, if the other stuff doesn't piss me off too much before hand I'll be okay. But sadly I was just bored by the action because of how poor the narrative of it was.

 

[CelticPredator]

Well, that's what happens when you expect too much from a movie based of action figures.

 

[danoyse]

Celtic, this is your last warning to stop throwing a tantrum because people had the nerve to dislike Transformers. It's childish, and it's getting old.

 

[CelticPredator]

Oh so it's alright when you bash a movie I enjoy...but it's totally wrong for me to bash a movie you enjoy? That cant possibly be fair.

 

[Thebumwhowalks]

I don't see anything wrong with defending the TF movies, but, this thread is not the place for it eh? and come to think of it, there are lots of TF debates in many non-Tf threads, it is quite the debating phenomenon, lol.
I never go over to the TF boards, but I guess a lot of the folk who do are fans, so there is not much bashing over there to defend the films from, so y'know, maybe we should just make the whole forum transform into a Transformers forum, lol.

edit: But aye, if the discussions go on a bit, it's probably best to let it go sometimes, you're probably not going to change anyone's opinion in those types of debate anyway.

 

[danoyse]

Oh so it's alright when you bash a movie I enjoy...but it's totally wrong for me to bash a movie you enjoy? That cant possibly be fair.

Don't be ridiculous. I know that's hard for you.

You repeatedly act like a two-year-old having a tantrum whenever someone has the nerve to say they don't like Transformers or Michael Bay.

Wait, that's not right. The comparison is insulting to two-year-olds.

You liked Transformers. That's wonderful. We're glad for you.

Deal with the fact that others don't like it. I don't care if you want to bash movies that I enjoyed, or movies anyone else here enjoyed. I never told you that you couldn't do that. But try to accept the opinions of others and don't melt down like a toddler whenever someone dislikes something you like.

You have been warned on this thread twice in the past two days. You will not be warned again. Quit derailing this thread with this ridiculous attitude, and learn to play nice with others.

Again, it's not that hard.

 

[marvelman2006]

Ill be honest cowboys and aliens just doesnt look interesting to me at all. I have seen the big blockbusters I wanted to this year so far and next is planet of the apes but cowboys and aliens just never really grabbed me enough to want to cough up my money. Transformers is still the all around pure enjoyment movie this year followed closely by harry potter for me. It still amzes me how quickly most of these big movies have come and gone like tf3, hp part 2 and hangover 2 had huge opening weekends then fell of quickly and the other movies opened up around 60 million and were forgotten by sunday night. Nothing has come close to the enjoyment and hype I had and felt back in 2005 watching episode 3 for the first time at the midnight screening.

 

[Marvin]

For all the hate TF gets I truly wonder how many people enjoy C&A more, cause I don't really see any lambasting.

Looks like we have 3 films this year in the billions.
I'm guessing next year we will have two: 1 in the summer and one in the winter.

 

[Bruce Malone]

This is taken from a question i had in another forum but most likely 2011 will be the first year since 2001 that no super-hero flick has grossed 200 million domestic. That's 10 years. What do you guys make of this?

Yes 2012 will be huge just due to the avengers/batman etc. but i'm not sold on the future after that.

 

[DACrowe]

For all the hate TF gets I truly wonder how many people enjoy C&A more, cause I don't really see any lambasting.

Looks like we have 3 films this year in the billions.
I'm guessing next year we will have two: 1 in the summer and one in the winter.

I hope to see C&A this weekend and I'll let you know.

 

[jmc]

This is taken from a question i had in another forum but most likely 2011 will be the first year since 2001 that no super-hero flick has grossed 200 million domestic. That's 10 years. What do you guys make of this?

Yes 2012 will be huge just due to the avengers/batman etc. but i'm not sold on the future after that.

This is my assessment - The second tier superheros are far harder to make first tier than IM would have us believe. I read a lot of box office speculation across this and other boards and many of the predictions were way off the mark, and most of it was calculated on the basis that if the formula is similar to IM similar success will follow. I naively believed is also to some extent but it became clear once Thor was going to come well short of IM opening numbers (even with 3D inflation) that we were not going to have some massive hit on our hands this year with the remaining superheroes. I think what this year's experiment has shown is a) IM was fluke, a film that was at the right place at the right time with the right lead, b) there's a limited market for these lower tiered characters given they all opened with roughly the same amount, c) these characters aren't a guaranteed source of income, d) superhero fatigue has played a part. As for the future, studios may have to start spending less if they want decent return because at the moment the budget are reflective of characters on a higher level but the results aren't matching.

 

[Hush]

So I think Change-Up will beat Apes at the theatre and that is a stretch since it's R-Rated but I mean I still hear nothing but laughs when people see the trailer for it before movies.

 

[terry78]

Apes is like the next to last big summer blockbuster, right before Conan. With the reviews it's getting people may be more inclined to see it.