Survivor: Redemption Island

[Marx]

I just wonder how badly Rob will flip out if he loses again...

 

[Sakuraba]

There is only deserving winner at this point....and it is strange to say, but Phillip deserves it. That said, Natalie probably WILL win it (unless Ashley can win another two immunity challenges in a row).

Phillip winning would save this season. This has been the Phillip show, and he deserves the win not just because he's been entertaining, but he's been doing some pretty savvy stuff.

-He's first move was his most brilliant. From the beginning he was playing up the delusional/crazy/know-it-all aspect with his pronouncing his unique skills as a special agent and telling the girls how to dig a hole. Then, seeing that he was falling into a minority alliance with no real strategy other than "get rid of Rob", he betrays them completely in an insane rant at tribal council, which worked to show loyalty to Rob (who Phillip obviously knew was controlling the majority votes) and show himself to be a huge goat.

-The race card, it seems like a mistake, but he was basically up for consideration at that point, and he needed to dial up the villainy. More than likely Julie still goes home, but the race card assured Phillip's spot in the finals.

-His strategy to force Natalie and Ashley into a closer bond by patronizing them together was genius because it created a necessity to break them up and ultimately put Natalie on the hot seat. I mean, if I'm Phillip, give me Rob and Ashley as my co-finalists. Ashley is something of a wench and Rob is a goat himself. I'm sure Phillip knows that Natalie going to the finals is nothing more than resigning yourself to 2nd place. It'll be interesting to see if he a) makes a direct move on Natalie, or b) orchestrates the boot of Rob in order to gain some approval of the jury.

Phillip is a longshot, but I don't think his final speech is just going to be "ah, I was just kidding." I think there is a genuine night-and-day difference that he's going to show us. This season needs one last great Phillip moment.

 

[Sakuraba]

I think we're getting another coattail winner and it will most likely be Natalie. I think too many spite Phil and I'm sure the Zapatera don't have much appreciation for Rob.

You know it. The fact that we haven't gotten as much as one confessional stating that Natalie is a huge threat to sweep the final vote is the proof that she's winning. We had Rob mention every reason why he shouldn't take her to the finals except he seemed oblivious to her good looks, sweetness, and innocence being attributes. We haven't heard his reasoning for taking her to the finals. Has there been one moment where Rob M. has stated his plan for taking Natalie to the Finals? I may have missed it.

Watching some Pearl Islands the other night, it's like when Fairplay was trying to explain that Lil was a horrible person to take to finals because she going to cry and win the hearts of the jury, and she replies, "what, you don't think they'll go by skills and strategy?" "No, they're going to go by you crying!"

Personally, Rob appears to be starstruck by Natalie. He's got a little crush on her or something to that effect.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Matt or Grant are who I'm rooting for. If they don't return, Phillip, because of the post above.

I do not want to see Rob or the useless girls win or anyone from the old Zapatera tribe that completely gave up on a challenge just to get rid of one person.

 

[Matt]

Matt or Grant are who I'm rooting for. If they don't return, Phillip, because of the post above.

I do not want to see Rob or the useless girls win or anyone from the old Zapatera tribe that completely gave up on a challenge just to get rid of one person.

I can't root for someone who was voted out. It contradicts the nature of the game too heavily.

 

[bullets]

You know it. The fact that we haven't gotten as much as one confessional stating that Natalie is a huge threat to sweep the final vote is the proof that she's winning. We had Rob mention every reason why he shouldn't take her to the finals except he seemed oblivious to her good look, sweetness, and innocence being attributes. We haven't heard his reasoning for taking her to the finals. Has there been on moment where Rob M. has stated his plan for taking Natalie to the Finals? I may have missed it.
Personally, Rob appears to be starstruck by Natalie. He's got a little crush on her or something to that effect.

He confirmed Phil and Nat being final three after Nat told him about Ashley and Ralph's talk. He overreacted and painted Ashley as untrustworthy. I laughed when Rob said to Nat he would never cross her last episode but that might turn out to be true.

 

[Sakuraba]

I just wonder how badly Rob will flip out if he loses again...

Personally, I can't wait for his horrible acting at the final tribal. The man is the worst fake crier.

He confirmed Phil and Nat being final three after Nat told him about Ashley and Ralph's talk. He overreacted and painted Ashley as untrustworthy. I laughed when Rob said to Nat he would never cross her last episode but that might turn out to be true.

I wasn't clear. I meant has he stated his reason for taking Natalie? Why on earth would you take her over someone like Ashley? He could easily exchange them at this point.

 

[Iron_Stark]

I can't root for someone who was voted out. It contradicts the nature of the game too heavily.

Well they are surviving on RI. Besides, they're the lesser of evils when it comes to Rob, useless girls and old Zapatera. Imo ofcourse.

 

[Matt]

Well they are surviving on RI. Besides, they're the lesser of evils when it comes to Rob, useless girls and old Zapatera. Imo ofcourse.

I disagee. Even if Rob had the odds stacked in his favor, even if the useless girls were coattail riders, they weren't voted out. That makes them automatically more deserving.

 

[Sawyer]

So, basically, what you're saying is that the entire Redemption Island thing is pointless?

 

[Matt]

So, basically, what you're saying is that the entire Redemption Island thing is pointless?

Yes. Its the same reason that Lil didn't deserve to win despite playing a better game than Sandra. If you're voted out, you do not deserve the million.

 

[Marx]

Personally, I can't wait for his horrible acting at the final tribal. The man is the worst fake crier.

Yes he is.

 

[steintym]

I must be losing my mind, but ... I think I actually want Phil to win. His goofiness has grown on me and he's really been the only entertaining aspect of this season.

Go Phil!

 

[Iron_Stark]

Yes. Its the same reason that Lil didn't deserve to win despite playing a better game than Sandra. If you're voted out, you do not deserve the million.

I see where you're coming from, but its a new part of the game. Had they been voted out and some producer or someone put them back in the game, then yeah. But atleast they're still doing challenges and surviving.

I don't know maybe its just me, but I see people winning challenges more deserving than coattail riders that never win one single challenge.

Oh well, whoever wins on Sunday I'm sure will not be deserving of the million in most peoples eyes.

 

[Matt]

I see where you're coming from, but its a new part of the game. Had they been voted out and some producer or someone put them back in the game, then yeah. But atleast they're still doing challenges and surviving.

I don't know maybe its just me, but I see people winning challenges more deserving than coattail riders that never win one single challenge.

Oh well, whoever wins on Sunday I'm sure will not be deserving of the million in most peoples eyes.

Provided it wasn't an act and Phil is just straight crazy (and I think for the most part that is true, I think he hammed it up a bit but with Phillip, mostly what we saw is who he is), none of these players are really deserving. That is in no small part due to producer interference tainting the game.

 

[Sakuraba]

So the concensus here is Rob M., Special Agent Phillip Sheppard, and Natalie as F3, with a Natalie win, right?

I'm thinking a 6-3-0 breakdown in the voting is in order. On thing to look for is how poorly spoken and inarticulate Natalie is in front of the jury. Watching most of her unaired confessionals and what has been aired, she is rather incoherent and pauses for long periods of time to think about her words, and then she chooses the wrong words! Of course, none of it will matter unless Phillip or Rob M. turn into Perry Mason.

I'm not so quick to write off the Redemption returnee making a double immunity run to make finals. The four on RI are all excellent in challenges and the only person that would stand in their way of immunity wins is Rob, unless it's yet another chessy immunity challenge. (How many good challenges can you remember from this season? I can think of two.)

All we need is Matt/Mike/Andrea/Grant winning the first immunity for Ashley to go home, and then the door is open for Phillip to boot Natalie in favor of anyone other than Mike. I'd rather have Matt/Andrea/Grant then Natalie.

 

[Sakuraba]

Assuming the F4 is

-Phillip
-Rob M.
-Natalie (no immunity)
-Matt/Andrea/Grant

if you're Phillip, do you make the move to eliminate Natalie? She won't be starting any fire over the likes of the three mentioned, so she'd be the last juror. The merits of taking the Redemption returnee over Natalie are:

Matt: Horrendous performance in the game, blindsided twice by the same people, stabbed in the back by his closest ally, and didn't play Survivor. He played Redemption Island. He saw three tribal councils and was voted out at two of them.

Andrea: Again, another person already voted out of the game. Was played by Rob the entire time and then discarded when her usefulness expired. Failed to make a big move with her closest ally and ultimately stabbed him in the back.

Grant: Okay, Grant is the one guy other than Mike that I would consider not taking to F3 and keeping Natalie. He's well-spoken, he was a strong competitor, he makes an emotional connection when he talks about his wife, and he's an attractive guy. That said, he was voted out of the game, he was used by Rob. Rob let him believe that he was calling the shots... until he wasn't calling the shots and he was voted out. He wouldn't even eat fish with Zapatera.

 

[Marx]

Grant is very attractive.

 

[Matt]

Assuming the F4 is

-Phillip
-Rob M.
-Natalie (no immunity)
-Matt/Andrea/Grant

if you're Phillip, do you make the move to eliminate Natalie? She won't be starting any fire over the likes of the three mentioned, so she'd be the last juror. The merits of taking the Redemption returnee over Natalie are:

Matt: Horrendous performance in the game, blindsided twice by the same people, stabbed in the back by his closest ally, and didn't play Survivor. He played Redemption Island. He saw three tribal councils and was voted out at two of them.

Andrea: Again, another person already voted out of the game. Was played by Rob the entire time and then discarded when her usefulness expired. Failed to make a big move with her closest ally and ultimately stabbed him in the back.

Grant: Okay, Grant is the one guy other than Mike that I would consider not taking to F3 and keeping Natalie. He's well-spoken, he was a strong competitor, he makes an emotional connection when he talks about his wife, and he's an attractive guy. That said, he was voted out of the game, he was used by Rob. Rob let him believe that he was calling the shots... until he wasn't calling the shots and he was voted out. He wouldn't even eat fish with Zapatera.

Assuming that this is the final duel is Grant/Matt/Andrea/Mike, the only Redemption Island player that players should consider taking is Grant. He had a very limited time on RI which means he had the least time to suck up to the potential jurors there and he can be tied to all of Rob's plans.

 

[Sakuraba]

That's an excellent point about jury tampering on RI.

Unless Phillip is prepared to make a convincing case that he has been playing a character, apologizes and justifies his "character's" actions, and mentions how hard a worker around camp that he was, he'll have a hard road to hoe against Natalie or the Redemption returnee.

Phillip needs to emphasize the following in his opening comments:

-he was playing a villainess character.
-he states his reasons for the deception, basically he had to make himself attractive to Rob while on a tribe of young and gullible people.
-he apologizes for his disruptive outbursts, specifically to Steve and Ashley, because he accused Steve of being racist (my head was on the chopping block, I know you are a good guy) and to Ashley (she won't want to vote for Nat or Rob at this point.)
-makes the easy case for Rob being a Survivor snake.
-ties Natalie into the role of diehard Rob-bot and accomplice to his treachery.
-paints Natalie as vain and useless around camp and in challenges. Betrayed her best friend Ashley in favor of Phillip.

And then he needs to hammer and keep hammering Rob and Natalie with every juror's question.

I can see Ashley, Grant, Matt, and Andrea voting for Phil. All he needs is a decent jury speech and one Zapatera vote to win. I'm looking at you Mike.

 

[Sakuraba]

Which juror gives the most bitter speech/question?

I'm going to guess Ashley.

 

[Marx]

Promos all day have been hyping Rob as 'one of the greatest players ever'. I really don't see it...

 

[Marx]

I also hope that Russell's airtime during the reunion show is limited.

 

[Sawyer]

Promos all day have been hyping Rob as 'one of the greatest players ever'. I really don't see it...

He's a great player in the sense that Charles Manson is a great serial killer. Both have basically just found people young and stupid enough to buy into their BS and do their bidding.

So, yeah, if that's CBS' definition of "greatest player", then sure.

 

[bullets]

Promos all day have been hyping Rob as 'one of the greatest players ever'. I really don't see it...

I've only seen some of the seasons so I don't know how he was on any other besides All Stars. Good villain but certainly not the best strategist. This season he actually got far based on his notoriety without much else.