The Dark Knight Rises TDKR Box Office Prediction Thread

[MessiahDecoy123]

What records will it break?

Will it be able to match or surpass the box office performance of TDK without the Joker?

How much will it make (opening weekend/domestic/overseas/worldwide)?

 

[redfirebird2008]

$155m opening weekend
$425m domestic
$470m overseas
$895m worldwide

The lack of China hurt TDK overseas, but it will be a boost for TDKR. Other markets like Australia and Britain will drop just like North America.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

200 m Opening Weekend
475 m Domestic
525 m Overseas
1 billion Worldwide

- Takes the OW record back from Harry Potter
- 2nd franchise with two movies over 400 million domestic
- 2nd franchise with two movies over 1 billion worldwide

 

[Fenrir]

What's there to predict? It's going to wipe the floor with every other Hollywood blockbuster in 2012. People complained about TDK's only-a-logo teaser and look what it did to the almighty Indiana Jones. So all this brouhaha about TDKR's teaser being crap and The Avengers' being oh-so-amazing isn't worth spit when taking into account the fact that Batman is the current king of superheroes both critically and commercially, and TDKR is the most anticipated film of next summer. Plus, Joss Whedon against Christopher Nolan? Come on, it's not even going to be a fair fight, it's going to be a massacre.

*end fanboy chest-thumping*

 

[Sith Scotti]

I have a bad feeling that Spiderman may do better . More people liked that teaser

 

[redfirebird2008]

I have a bad feeling that Spiderman may do better .

Not in North America. That one will be lucky to hit $250m after SM3's crappy WOM and DVD sales. Spider-Man should be big overseas thanks to 3D, which is providing a big boost to a lot of other movies right now including the likes of Transformers 3 (headed for $200m more overseas than TF2).

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I doubt Spiderman will do better.

The reception from my theater when the trailer appeared was mixed -- to say the least. There were alot of "Another one?", "Reboot already?", and "I don't know" comments.

In addition, TDKR got the best spot during the summer. It doesn't hurt to be the most anticipated film of 2012 either.

 

[Diemtay]

If I had to make a guess... TDKR won't do as well as TDK, and I don't think it will break any records.

1 - The general audiene may not be as excited to see this film due to the lack of the Joker. I think his character brought in a lot of people last time.

2 - It will be the 2nd weekend of Spiderman being out in theaters, so a lot of people will want to see that movie.

TDKR will definitely make a crap load of money, and it will be a huge box office success, but I just can't see it toping TDK.

 

[Diemtay]

It doesn't hurt to be the most anticipated film of 2012 either.

I'd say The Hobbit is equally as anticipated as TDKR is.

 

[kvz5]

The lack of China hurt TDK overseas, but it will be a boost for TDKR.

Absolutely. Inception did really, really well there and Bale is starring in arguably their biggest movie there this year (biggest budgeted, most famous director, etc.) so his profile will be pretty big there by the time of TDKR's release. I expect to see "From the Director of Inception" and "Star of Nanjing Heroes" taglines for both Nolan and Bale in the Chinese trailers.

Hopefully, the boost in China will be enough to offset most of the drop in other countries.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Absolutely. Inception did really, really well there and Bale is starring in arguably their biggest movie there this year (biggest budgeted, most famous director, etc.) so his profile will be pretty big there by the time of TDKR's release. I expect to see "From the Director of Inception" and "Star of Nanjing Heroes" taglines for both Nolan and Bale in the Chinese trailers.

Hopefully, the boost in China will be enough to offset most of the drop in other countries.

Yes, that's pretty much what I'm expecting. TDK was also a huge bootleg hit in China, which was kind of surprising at the time. Part of that might have been the "forbidden treasure" aspect of it. The fact that they couldn't legally watch it made them want to see it even more. It's not just China though. There are other markets that have expanded quite a bit since 2008. It's the developed markets like the UK where we can expect a drop. But the emerging markets will likely balance that out.

 

[lime]

150 OW
390 US
650 Foreign
1 billion WW

 

[Blue Sugar]

More than Inception, less than TDK.

 

[Truu]

185m OW
610m DOM
730m OS

 

[BatFan88]

i hope TDKR will beat avatars box office.

i voted for 2billion.

 

[Sith Scotti]

I'd say The Hobbit is equally as anticipated as TDKR is.

Not really .. Im so over LOTR . I prefer taking a walk in the woods than watching it for 10 hrs

 

[Llama_Shepherd]

slightly over 1 billion.

 

[gazzilla8000]

I have a bad feeling that Spiderman may do better . More people liked that teaser

The Spider-Man "teaser" was almost a full length trailer. It showed alot. TDKR teaser showed almost nothing.

Besides, while there have been many positive reactions to the Spidey teaser, there have been alot of negative ones, whereas TDKR teaser generally gets a favourable reaction.

You can't really use teasers to determine box office results. These movies are a year away. Each film will eventually have full length trailers. The difference is this new Spiderman film has to prove itself, while TDKR already has an enormous amount of good faith from the public based on the previous 2 films.

TDK has become a pop-culture phenomen. They could release no trailers for this film and it will dominate the box office.

I predict TDKR will take similar box office as TDK, maybe slightly less as the Heath Ledger factor isn't there. However Bane and Catwoman will generate hype in their own rights.

 

[imposserus]

 

[04nbod]

More than Inception, less than TDK.

I don't see it matching TDK either

 

[hatebox]

Sorry to be that guy, but:

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=348583

 

[mclay18]

The Spider-Man "teaser" was almost a full length trailer. It showed alot.

It's been shooting since last December. Of course it's going to have more footage. But that doesn't mean it's going to be good.

So all this brouhaha about TDKR's teaser being crap and The Avengers' being oh-so-amazing isn't worth spit when taking into account the fact that Batman is the current king of superheroes both critically and commercially, and TDKR is the most anticipated film of next summer.

I love both teasers, and I'm thankful there was at least some new footage for the TDKR trailer. I can see it being a disappointment if there wasn't any footage at all, but I'm pleased with what we got so far.

And it's no brainer TDKR will wipe the floor with Avengers and the Spidey reboot. But I'm equally excited for both movies, just because of the directors involved and their track record. May and July 2012 are going to be exciting times.

My predictions:

$180M opening weekend
$450M-485M domestic gross
$900-$1B worldwide gross