The 2012 Iowa Caucuses

[redfirebird2008]

Yeah but how many presidents who were remembered fondly had a speech writer?

Every modern President has had speech writers.

 

[enterthemadness]

Every modern President has had speech writers.

Doesn't the President give a bullet list though of things to be in the speech?

 

[redfirebird2008]

Doesn't the President give a bullet list though of things to be in the speech?

Depends on the President. Advisers play a big role in that part of it for most Presidents.

 

[Matt]

My predictions:

1. Mitt Romney
2. Rick Santorum
3. Ron Paul
4. Rick Perry
5. Newt Gingrich
6. Michelle Bachmann
7. Jon Huntsman
8. Herman Cain
9. Buddy Roemer

Sound predictions, though due to the format of caucuses, anything can happen. Santorum, Paul, Perry or even Bachmann (only twice has the winner of the Ames straw poll not won Iowa) can still shake things up. It all depends on which candidates has the most rabid supporters show up. Personally, I think that Santorum will win it. Religious candidates tend to do well in Iowa and a lot of Santorum's campaign has been establishing a ground game in Iowa. That being said, I can't see Santorum winning anywhere else, so after Romney wins New Hampshire, the race should be over. Of course, if Romney wins tonight it'll be over.

I expect Bachmann to drop out tonight (or tomorrow morning). I don't think she will stick around throughout the election season. She isn't that crazy and she'll have a re-election campaign to get through (and sticking around during the presidential campaign despite having no shot could hurt her). I think after tonight, she'll call it quits, provided she doesn't upset or anything.

Santorum, if he does not win, will probably also call it quits tonight (and endorse Romney).

Huntsman and Perry will probably throw in the towel after New Hampshire. Gingrich will probably drop out following South Carolina.

Paul will stick around until the convention like the crazy old coot that he is.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Sound predictions, though due to the format of caucuses, anything can happen. Santorum, Paul, Perry or even Bachmann (only twice has the winner of the Ames straw poll not won Iowa) can still shake things up. It all depends on which candidates has the most rabid supporters show up. Personally, I think that Santorum will win it. Religious candidates tend to do well in Iowa and a lot of Santorum's campaign has been establishing a ground game in Iowa. That being said, I can't see Santorum winning anywhere else, so after Romney wins New Hampshire, the race should be over. Of course, if Romney wins tonight it'll be over.

I expect Bachmann to drop out tonight (or tomorrow morning). I don't think she will stick around throughout the election season. She isn't that crazy and she'll have a re-election campaign to get through (and sticking around during the presidential campaign despite having no shot could hurt her). I think after tonight, she'll call it quits, provided she doesn't upset or anything.

Santorum, if he does not win, will probably also call it quits tonight (and endorse Romney).

Huntsman and Perry will probably throw in the towel after New Hampshire. Gingrich will probably drop out following South Carolina.

Paul will stick around until the convention like the crazy old coot that he is.

I think that if Santorum's surge just happened a few days earlier and got the endorsement of the entire Family Leader organization, he'd be the winner. He has a great surge going on right now, but I think it didn't happen soon enough.

Other factors I think that are against Santorum is that the field has changed dramatically since 2008. In 2008, the Republican field was dominated by establishment preferred center-right candidates (Mitt Romney, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson. In 2012, the Republican field is being dominated by evangelical-esque candidates (Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann, Newt Gingrich). The vote that Santorum is trying to capture is being heavily courted by several others and while Santorum will capture the majority of evangelical voters, the others will be taking other voters that would likely be going to Santorum. In 2008, there was only one evangelical candidate with Mike Huckabee. Santorum is no Huckabee either. Huckabee was just a far better candidate, he had better organization, he was perceived as more electable, he had all the right endorsements, and his surge came at the right time.

Also the moderate vote was split between Mitt Romney, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and to a certain extent Fred Thompson. This time around, center-right vote just has Mitt Romney for choice. Romney also has an excellent organization in Iowa as well that was left over from his 2008 campaign.

The electorate has also changed. The current GOP electorate first and foremost wants someone that can beat Barack Obama and so far, the only candidate that can do that is Mitt Romney. They're looking more at economic issues and Mitt Romney holds a commanding lead on that issue over the other candidates. Social issues have just taken a lesser prominence this time around than they did in 2008.

The weather in Iowa also looks fantastic for January. Good weather is going to lead to a higher turnout which is expected to be more favorable to Romney while poor weather should favor would result in lower turnout favoring Santorum and Ron Paul.

And the final factor that is a big deal is that the Republican Iowa Caucus is a lot different than the Democratic one. The Democratic Iowa Caucus is just one big public cluster**** that has no regard for the secret ballot, leading to lots of peer pressure and whatnot. The Republican Iowa Caucus on the other hand still uses a paper ballot. It's essentially a hybrid of caucus and primary. While there is no booth guaranteeing privacy, the extent of peer pressure in the Republican Iowa Caucus is a bit less than the peer pressure of the Democratic version. I think that this could benefit Mitt Romney.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Worst thing to me about this campaign is that the other candidates haven't really spent much time attacking Romney. He deserves to be called out repeatedly for being a flip-flopping, hypocritical servant to Wall Street. Hell, Bachmann's campaign admitted that she didn't attack him very much because she hoped he would pick her as his running mate. Makes me wonder if all the campaigns are hoping for the same thing. Meanwhile they give up their only chance to undermine him, which is to point out the obvious flaws in his resume.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Gingrich is attacking him because he has developed a massive hatred of Romney. Ron Paul is now calling him liberal. And Michelle Bachmann, now that she has pretty much realized that Romney asking her to be his VP is not going to happen, came up with the attack "Newt Romney"

 

[redfirebird2008]

Gingrich is attacking him because he has developed a massive hatred of Romney. Ron Paul is now calling him liberal. And Michelle Bachmann, now that she has pretty much realized that Romney asking her to be his VP is not going to happen, came up with the attack "Newt Romney"

Newt saw all those negative ads from Romney's camp and realized he should have been attacking Mitt the entire time. The others waited too long to attack him as well. They spent most of the Iowa campaign fighting amongst themselves, which allowed Romney to sort of sneak in the back door.

 

[SV Fan]

Newt saw all those negative ads from Romney's camp and realized he should have been attacking Mitt the entire time. The others waited too long to attack him as well. They spent most of the Iowa campaign fighting amongst themselves, which allowed Romney to sort of sneak in the back door.

I think the theory was no matter what Romney would get his 20-25%, the other 75% was up for grabs

...because having Sarah Palin as the VP nominee worked so well before?

Palin might be a negative in a national campaign for President but she still has alot of sway in Republican politics. As I said it's a desperate move to try get votes

 

[redfirebird2008]

I think the theory was no matter what Romney would get his 20-25%, the other 75% was up for grabs

If there is anything we've seen during this particular campaign, it's that voters are willing to move away from a candidate if enough negative stuff is thrown at them. Romney is claiming he has Tea Party support in Iowa. If there is even an ounce of truth to that claim, the other candidates have failed miserably in attacking his record as a Wall Street stooge.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Newt saw all those negative ads from Romney's camp and realized he should have been attacking Mitt the entire time. The others waited too long to attack him as well. They spent most of the Iowa campaign fighting amongst themselves, which allowed Romney to sort of sneak in the back door.

While they were fighting amongst themselves, I think the fact that they were terrible candidates was what allowed Romney to sneak in the back door over getting away scot free. Michelle Bachmann lacking substance brought her down. Rick Perry's performances in the debates brought him down. Herman Cain's sexual harassment claims brought him down. Newt Gingrich's past and complete lack of organization brought him down. Ron Paul's (accurate) views on foreign policy brought him down. And if given the chance, Rick Santorum being a crazy nutbag (like his miscarried child for instance) would bring him down. Even if they weren't fighting amongst themselves, they still would have been brought down due to various reasons.

Also, whenever Rick Perry tried to attack Romney, he shut him down hard. He essentially made Perry his *****. The audiences booed Perry while cheering for Romney. Unlike the other candidates, Romney is pretty damn good at knowing what he's talking about and he's careful about what he says 95% of the time. All his skeletons came out of the closet when he was the frontrunner back in 2008 when the McCain, Huckabee, and Giuliani campaigns viciously went after him. The other candidates probably wanted to avoid the embarrassment that happened to Perry.

 

[enterthemadness]

Nice to see the livestream at Politico work smooth..after pausing it.

This is so exciting.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Iowa Governor Terry Branstad predicts that Mitt Romney will win the Iowa Caucus.

 

[Matt]

Nice to see the livestream at Politico work smooth..after pausing it.

This is so exciting.

Anyone volunteering for ETM's suicide watch? First Jeff Fisher throws Matt Moore under the bus and now Ron Paul is probably going to lose right in front of his eyes. Who has first watch?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

All the non-Romney candidates should get behind one person and the rest drop out to beat Romney but that will never happen.

 

[enterthemadness]

Anyone volunteering for ETM's suicide watch? First Jeff Fisher throws Matt Moore under the bus and now Ron Paul is probably going to lose right in front of his eyes. Who has first watch?

That I Kid You Not Guy, I'm Sure he ain't busy.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Honestly I wouldn't mind Romney as president. At least he'd be a moderate.

The rest of them are nuts outside of Jon Hunstman.

 

[Matt]

Honestly I wouldn't mind Romney as president. At least he'd be a moderate.

The rest of them are nuts outside of Jon Hunstman.

Honestly, a Romney presidency won't be all that different from an Obama presidency. Both are moderate corporatists.

 

[Thundercrack85]

Honestly I wouldn't mind Romney as president. At least he'd be a moderate.

That would depend on the day of the week.

 

[SV Fan]

Honestly, a Romney presidency won't be all that different from an Obama presidency. Both are moderate corporatists.

As much as I would agree with that, the fact that Romney has alot of Bush's foreign policy advisers working for him scares the bejesus out of me. We all know how Gung Ho the military industrial complex is for another war.

 

[bell110]

Wow, according to Santorum, getting married before you have a kid keeps you out of poverty.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Honestly, a Romney presidency won't be all that different from an Obama presidency. Both are moderate corporatists.

Pretty much.

But at the end of the day I can go to sleep knowing there's not a madman extremist in the whitehouse.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Anyone volunteering for ETM's suicide watch? First Jeff Fisher throws Matt Moore under the bus and now Ron Paul is probably going to lose right in front of his eyes. Who has first watch?

I'll keep watch. He needs a sympathetic face

 

[enterthemadness]

Pretty much.

But at the end of the day I can go to sleep knowing there's not a madman extremist in the whitehouse.

Yeah, Obama did great signing the Bill of Rights destroyer NDAA...

 

[enterthemadness]

I'll keep watch. He needs a sympathetic face

Awww, Aquaman...