The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Jack sparrow]

RT does NOT = legs. Where did that equation come from?

Man of Steel, Zoom, Thunderbirds, Son of the Mask...

 

[JOE]

MOS made 650M WW? Almost more than any other 2 Superman movies combined. And why are we comparing CBM with movies like Son of Mask lmao?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Congratulations, that doesn't mean anything when it comes to BO. Look at TF2 compared to TF1, it was 10x worse and made over 100M more WW. IM2 was worse than IM1, made more money... The list goes on and on.

SM2 was better than SM and it made less money. There's no guarantee for any #'s until the money is counted.

Spider-Man 2's biggest factor was a way worse opening date.

 

[JOE]

Spider-Man 2's biggest factor was a way worse opening date.

It's no coincidence that SM and SM3 made more money with early May release dates.

 

[starkresilient]

Deadline

Hoping to carry the momentum from its overseas bow where it has already racked up $145M in two weeks, Sony‘s The Amazing Spider-Man 2 bows domestically tonight on 4,324 screens (including 353 IMAX) and is expected to open about 30% higher than the first installment for the three-day weekend. The picture has always played well across all demos, but this time around, ticket sales are outpacing the first Amazing Spider-Man in 2012 and currently represents 90% of Fandango’s weekend ticket sales. Fandango chief correspondent Dave Karger said that this one is outpacing the buzz of the first one, which is good news for the studio: “We’re selling more tickets for the sequel than we did for the first film.” As it should be.

There is one notable difference: The first Amazing Spider-Man opened during the July 4th holiday which landed on a Wednesday; so its opening was on a Tuesday and it grossed $35M. It went onto make $62M on its first weekend (post-Fourth of July). The sequel is opening minus a holiday weekend, so if this one grosses maybe $15M tonight, and then another $30M-$35M on Friday, it looks on track for a $90M weekend.

Internationally, the film is still rolling out with France and Brazil bowing tonight and then China on Sunday. By then, Spidey will be in around 40 markets. With an international opening of $47M, the Sony tentpole marked the biggest opening of 2014 when it bowed two weeks ago in 14 markets. In the UK/Ireland, Spidey grabbed $15M and marked a 49% bigger opening than Captain America: The Winter Soldier in the territory. But in 2012, the first installment has a UK opening-weekend tally of $17.1M. The same group of markets, Sony says, opened comparably to the first, and watching its rollout, that is very true: some markets are higher and some have been lower. Spider-Man has done particularly well overseas traditionally, although it has yet to top the $1B mark like other Marvel titles have done. China should be a great box office catch for this film as the first installment did exceptionally well, grossing a total of $48.8M in 2012. Latin America is also usually very strong for Spider-Man as is Japan, Korea and Russia — which together brought in $96.8M in 2012.

The performance of Amazing Spider-Man 2 is crucial for the studio. The production budget is said to be around $255M, with about $185M-$190M spent on marketing. That means all in it needs to make more than $752.2M worldwide (which is what the first installment grossed). About 65% of the first installment’s gross came from international markets. The domestic audience has declined slightly for Spider-Man so if it does not perform strongly stateside, it will need to make up the difference internationally or vice versa.

he last four Spider-Man movies have have all grossed more than $400M and all have worldwide grosses of over $750M. The first had an estimated $230M negative and went onto gross 65% of its worldwide cume from international markets.

So far, the international news has been good: In Mexico, Amazing Spider-Man 2 became the highest opener of the year. Korea opened to No. 1 last weekend with $13.4M and marked the fourth-biggest market for the first installment in 2012 (taking in a cume of $38.5M). It opened No. 1 in Russia, 3% above the first installment and in Italy opened 20% above the first film. It also topped the first film in other Latin America territories.

Also this frame, we will see the second weekend of Fox’s The Other Woman, which is likely to come in at No. 2, and Sony/TriStar’s Heaven is For Real has a real shot of taking the No. 3 spot.

 

[JKKS085]

BoxOffice.com has the movie opening lower than Captain America: The Winter Soldier with a 94M ow. We should get BoM/Ray Subers prediction today as well.

If it opens any lower than 94M (or even in that range), given the lukewarm wom, the mixed reviews and the upcoming competition, it'll have issues to gross past 200M domestically.
It's already on its way to set an all time low for the franchise domestically.

 

[Liam_H]

If it opens that high it should still pass $200M relatively easy. If not that would be Origins level bad. No way this movie will have that kind of WOM.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It is going to pass $200m. The question is by how much.

Deadline

You missed some bit that should be in bold.

 

[starkresilient]

lol I got lazy after that one paragraph

 

[JKKS085]

I don't see it pulling off a multiplier above 2.3 (and maybe lower, IM3 ended up with a 2.35 multiplier iirc). The movie is extremely front-loaded and the competition will likely kill it. I don't see it retaining the top spot for its second week end either.

So if it makes 94M ow it would end up around 215 millions, 92M ow would put it at 210 millions and a 90M ow at 205 (roughly). So yeah it would cross 200M an if that's what you call "relatively easy" (I would call it "crawling to" ) we're on the same page.

The oe's internal multiplier will already give us some clues but it's not looking good.

 

[Webhead38]

I think somewhere between $80 to $85 million OW is probable. The film is coming out less than two years from the previous, which received a very mixed reaction. There is allot of apathy for a second one this soon which is already reflected in the overseas markets that have underperformed and even had huge drops in the their second and third weeks out. Also the release date doesn't provide any benefit from kids being off during the weekdays as the previous one enjoyed. So the film loses money there as well. It's going to be a tall hurdle for this installment to do well (love it or not).

 

[JKKS085]

The film is coming out less than two years from the previous, which received a very mixed reaction. There is allot of apathy for a second one this soon

Very true. No matter what you think of this film it's once again just too soon.
Had they left enough time pass to create a "Spider-Man envy/need" we wouldn't be looking at these numbers.

I really hope that they will sit on the property a little longer than 2 years next time and delay TASM 3 to a 2017 or 2018 release date.

 

[iham32]

OW less than 100m..... ouch

 

[DarthSkywalker]

[YT]ShcQMsekpTU[/YT]

And this is why you can't start losing money on Spider-Man.

 

[JOE]

132M WW so far, OW should put it past 200M.

 

[Tony Stark]

Jack Sparrow - another one bites the dust.

Wow, banned with 4 posts, is that a new record? I knew he was going to be banned almost from his first post.

 

[marcvader]

Got to resubscribe. Damnit I've missed a lot in 24 hours.

 

[Tony Stark]

I initially said 130M open, obviously I've backed off that prediction that I made last summer sometime, but I still think this opens close to or just over 100M. The first weekend in may has been gold with the exception of perhaps the first Thor movie which was somewhat of an unknown.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Deadline

Is Deadline owned by Sony or something? Every single article they make on TASM2 blatantly tries to spin the performance of the movie in a positive light when it's plain clear in reality that it is trending lower than the first movie and they know it. Really disingenuous. That "And it should" line is really suspicious.

 

[starkresilient]

@ERCboxoffice

In one of the Top 10 all-time widest debuts (4,324 theaters) AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2 looks to net $86M--over or under?

 

[Mr. Dent]

Very true. No matter what you think of this film it's once again just too soon.
Had they left enough time pass to create a "Spider-Man envy/need" we wouldn't be looking at these numbers.

I really hope that they will sit on the property a little longer than 2 years next time and delay TASM 3 to a 2017 or 2018 release date.

If they "sat" on TASM3 that long they'd probably lose the rights. This is the dilemma for Sony, they can't just give the property a break because if they take longer than 3-4 years it seams like they'll lose the rights. It's pretty apparent Sony had to sale Marvel the animation rights to get an extension on TASM between SM3.

I initially said 130M open, obviously I've backed off that prediction that I made last summer sometime, but I still think this opens close to or just over 100M. The first weekend in may has been gold with the exception of perhaps the first Thor movie which was somewhat of an unknown.

This is almost locked to open below $100m at this point.

 

[Mr. Dent]

@ERCboxoffice

You can just tell Sony were expecting it to do way better than it is. I bet they thought it would be an event film.

 

[Liam_H]

$86M? That's pretty bad.

 

[spiderman2]

so I am confused that one link sounds like it is going to do while with a 30% higher then the first one but the other one saids something about 86 million. I am thinking the movie will have a 105 OW and we end at usa of 280 outside 520 for 800 told.

 

[ban1o]

Congratulations, that doesn't mean anything when it comes to BO. Look at TF2 compared to TF1, it was 10x worse and made over 100M more WW. IM2 was worse than IM1, made more money... The list goes on and on.

SM2 was better than SM and it made less money. There's no guarantee for any #'s until the money is counted.

Transformers 2 had a way bigger OW than the first because the first was received very well. TASM, had average reception. The same thing happened with the Hobbit. The hobbit 1 had average reception so The Hobbit 2 dropped. The reason why SM2 dropped was because it's release date sucked, and probably also because 9/11 played part in the first one's huge numbers. it only dropped by like 8%.